brackt/drizzle/meta/_journal.json

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feat: implement Expected Value System with ICM probability calculator Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds. ## Key Features ### ICM Probability Calculator - Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities - Converts American odds to championship probabilities - Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants - Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams - Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8) ### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry - Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures - Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions - Displays all 8 placement probabilities - Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits - Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig) ### Database Schema Updates - Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id - Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons - Added source_odds field to store original futures odds - Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update - Migration 0026: Add source_odds field ### Model Layer - participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions - Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation) - Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules - Probability validation and normalization ### Service Layer - icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution - probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use) - bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach) - ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities ## Technical Details - Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams - Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions - Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower) - All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid - Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing ## Future Enhancements - Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs - Integration with league-specific scoring rules - Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-17 22:19:46 -08:00
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fix: harden draft timer system with race-condition safety and DRY refactor (#34) - Fix settings action silently resetting timer values when draft speed select is disabled (add null guard before overwriting draftInitialTime/ draftIncrementTime) - Make timer decrement and pick increment atomic using SQL expressions to prevent read-modify-write races between the timer loop and HTTP handlers - Add UNIQUE INDEX on (season_id, pick_number) in draft_picks to prevent duplicate picks from concurrent requests (TOCTOU guard) - Add socket join-draft team ownership validation via DB query - Add iteration cap to autodraft chain while loop (max = totalTeams) - Add draftPaused re-check before firing autodraft chain in make-pick and force-manual-pick - Consolidate all snake draft calculations into calculatePickInfo (DRY); remove duplicated logic from timer.ts, make-pick, force-manual-pick, executeAutoPick, and checkAndTriggerNextAutodraft - Fix calculatePickInfo to return snake-adjusted pickInRound matching draftOrder values instead of raw pre-snake value - Fix timer-update socket events to emit nextPickNumber after a pick instead of the already-completed currentPickNumber - Fix force-manual-pick to validate submitted teamId matches the team whose turn it actually is at the given pick number - Replace inline timer init in draft.start with deleteSeasonTimers + initializeDraftTimers model functions (dead code fix) - Fix draft loader to not crash when getTeamQueue fails (returns []) - Fix misleading 403 message for commissioner picks - Remove dead hidden inputs from league settings form - Document connectedTeams single-instance limitation in socket.ts Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-23 23:23:24 -08:00
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Claude/redesign autodraft queue c4 kp r (#40) * Redesign autodraft queue system with three-state control and queue-only constraint Core Logic & Database: - Add `queue_only` boolean column to `autodraft_settings` (migration 0031) - Rename autodraft UI states: Off / Next Pick / All Picks (while_on mode maps to All Picks) - `autoPickForTeam`: respects new `queueOnly` param — skips EV fallback when enabled - `executeAutoPick`: auto-disables autodraft + emits socket event when queue empties with queueOnly ON (AC3) - `autodraft-updated` socket event now includes `queueOnly` field Mobile UI Overhaul: - Rename "Lobby" tab → "Available" (AC6) - Add new "Queue" tab to mobile bottom nav with drag-reorder, per-item Draft buttons, and autodraft controls (AC5) - Controls tab retains commissioner tools, notifications, exit; queue controls moved to Queue tab - Turn indicator appears on both Available and Queue tabs Components: - `AutodraftSettings`: replaces toggle+radio with three-state button group (Off | Next Pick | All Picks) + "Only autodraft from queue" switch (AC1, AC2) - `QueueSection`: adds `canPick` prop + per-item Draft buttons for instant drafting when on the clock Desktop (AC4): - Sidebar QueueSection unchanged in position; gains same three-state controls and Draft buttons Tests (AC7): - `autodraft.test.ts`: updated for queueOnly field and socket event shape - `timer-autodraft.test.ts`: new tests for queue-only constraint, auto-shutoff transitions, and all three autodraft states https://claude.ai/code/session_01PYhJicAStoJ2u6q6dV1naB * fix: remove erroneous ?? fallbacks in autodraft socket emissions and add autoPickForTeam tests - Remove `?? true` default on queueOnly in queue-empty auto-disable socket emit (line 488) — was dead code since the column is NOT NULL, but semantically wrong and would have caused client-side UI desync if the type ever relaxed - Remove `?? false` default on the next_pick auto-disable path for consistency - Add app/models/__tests__/auto-pick.test.ts with 6 tests covering the queueOnly constraint: empty queue, all items drafted, partial queue skip, and EV fallback Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix: add missing queueOnly prop to AutodraftSettings test fixtures Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * test: rewrite AutodraftSettings tests for three-state button group UI The component was redesigned from a switch + radio buttons to Off/Next Pick/All Picks buttons with a separate queue-only Switch toggle. Updated 17 stale tests and added 5 new tests covering the queue-only toggle and the All Picks/Off button interactions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-27 22:16:26 -08:00
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User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
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User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
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User/chris/ev f1 framework (#93) * feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator - Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons - Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions - Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry - F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift - Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page - Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action - Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route) - Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it from the sports season's scoring pattern. - Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings, golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable column on `sports` table; migration 0037 - Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of `ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now - `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers have typed access to `sport.simulatorType` - Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard fires before setting `simulationStatus: running` - Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-09 15:34:31 -07:00
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"tag": "0034_add_ev_snapshots",
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"tag": "0035_increase_prob_precision",
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"tag": "0036_increase_ev_precision",
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feat: progressive floor scoring for playoff brackets (#100) When a participant wins a bracket round, they immediately earn provisional "floor" points (the averaged minimum they'd receive if eliminated next round). These update as they advance and are replaced by finalized scores on elimination. Key changes: - Add `is_partial_score` column to `participant_results` (migration 0038) - `processPlayoffEvent`: assign provisional position 5 to non-scoring round winners; assign round-appropriate floors to scoring round winners via `getGuaranteedMinimumPosition`; add catch-all for unrecognized round names - `upsertParticipantResult`: guard against un-finalizing rows (never overwrite isPartialScore=false with true) - `calculateBracketPoints`: new function averaging tied bracket tiers (5-8 → 20 pts, 3-4 → avg, 1-2 solo); used in `calculateTeamScore` for playoff_bracket pattern (pattern-aware, doesn't affect F1/golf scoring) - `PlayoffBracket`: "In Contention" table for still-active participants; AFL double-chance fix (participants who won a later match excluded from earlier round's loser list); correct `nextRank` starting position - Server loader: batch owner DB queries (one query vs N+1); deduplicate participantPoints; use calculateBracketPoints for bracket point display - Clean up Phase/Q-number tracking comments throughout scoring-calculator.ts - 3 new tests for non-scoring round provisional floor behavior Also includes a dev admin bypass via DEV_ADMIN_CLERK_ID env var (separate change on this branch, not part of floor scoring feature). Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-10 10:27:58 -07:00
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"tag": "0038_sad_wilson_fisk",
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