417 lines
15 KiB
TypeScript
417 lines
15 KiB
TypeScript
|
import { Form, Link, useLoaderData, useActionData } from "react-router";
|
|||
|
|
import type { LoaderFunctionArgs, ActionFunctionArgs } from "react-router";
|
|||
|
|
import { findSportsSeasonById } from "~/models/sports-season";
|
|||
|
|
import { findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId } from "~/models/participant-result";
|
|||
|
|
import { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
|
|||
|
|
import {
|
|||
|
|
updateProbabilitiesAfterResult,
|
|||
|
|
previewProbabilityUpdate,
|
|||
|
|
type ProbabilityComparison,
|
|||
|
|
} from "~/services/probability-updater";
|
|||
|
|
import { Button } from "~/components/ui/button";
|
|||
|
|
import {
|
|||
|
|
Card,
|
|||
|
|
CardContent,
|
|||
|
|
CardDescription,
|
|||
|
|
CardHeader,
|
|||
|
|
CardTitle,
|
|||
|
|
} from "~/components/ui/card";
|
|||
|
|
import {
|
|||
|
|
Table,
|
|||
|
|
TableBody,
|
|||
|
|
TableCell,
|
|||
|
|
TableHead,
|
|||
|
|
TableHeader,
|
|||
|
|
TableRow,
|
|||
|
|
} from "~/components/ui/table";
|
|||
|
|
import { Badge } from "~/components/ui/badge";
|
|||
|
|
import { ArrowLeft, RefreshCw, CheckCircle, AlertTriangle } from "lucide-react";
|
|||
|
|
import { database } from "~/database/context";
|
|||
|
|
import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
|
|||
|
|
import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
export async function loader({ params }: LoaderFunctionArgs) {
|
|||
|
|
if (!params.id) {
|
|||
|
|
throw new Response("Missing season ID", { status: 400 });
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(params.id);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
if (!sportsSeason) {
|
|||
|
|
throw new Response("Sports season not found", { status: 404 });
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
const results = await findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
|
|||
|
|
const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(params.id);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
// Get preview of what would change
|
|||
|
|
const preview = await previewProbabilityUpdate(params.id);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
// Get participant names for display
|
|||
|
|
const db = database();
|
|||
|
|
const participants = await db.query.participants.findMany({
|
|||
|
|
where: (participants, { inArray }) =>
|
|||
|
|
inArray(
|
|||
|
|
participants.id,
|
|||
|
|
preview.map((p: ProbabilityComparison) => p.participantId)
|
|||
|
|
),
|
|||
|
|
});
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
const participantMap = new Map(participants.map((p: typeof participants[0]) => [p.id, p]));
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
return {
|
|||
|
|
sportsSeason,
|
|||
|
|
results,
|
|||
|
|
existingEVs,
|
|||
|
|
preview: preview.map((p: ProbabilityComparison) => ({
|
|||
|
|
...p,
|
|||
|
|
participantName: participantMap.get(p.participantId)?.name || "Unknown",
|
|||
|
|
})),
|
|||
|
|
};
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
export async function action({ params, request }: ActionFunctionArgs) {
|
|||
|
|
const formData = await request.formData();
|
|||
|
|
const intent = formData.get("intent");
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
if (intent === "recalculate") {
|
|||
|
|
const recalculateUnfinished = formData.get("recalculateUnfinished") === "true";
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
if (!params.id) {
|
|||
|
|
return { success: false, error: "Missing season ID" };
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
const result = await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
|
|||
|
|
params.id,
|
|||
|
|
recalculateUnfinished
|
|||
|
|
);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
if (result.errors.length > 0) {
|
|||
|
|
return {
|
|||
|
|
success: false,
|
|||
|
|
error: result.errors.join("; "),
|
|||
|
|
result,
|
|||
|
|
};
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
return {
|
|||
|
|
success: true,
|
|||
|
|
result,
|
|||
|
|
};
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
return { success: false, error: "Invalid intent" };
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
export default function RecalculateProbabilities() {
|
|||
|
|
const { sportsSeason, results, existingEVs, preview } = useLoaderData<typeof loader>();
|
|||
|
|
const actionData = useActionData<typeof action>();
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
const finishedCount = results.filter((r) => r.finalPosition !== null).length;
|
|||
|
|
const totalCount = existingEVs.length;
|
|||
|
|
const unfinishedCount = totalCount - finishedCount;
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
const changesCount = preview.filter((p) => p.status === "finished").length;
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
// Check for invalid probabilities (> 1.0)
|
|||
|
|
const invalidProbabilities = preview.filter((p) =>
|
|||
|
|
p.before.some((prob) => prob > 1.0)
|
|||
|
|
);
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
function formatProbability(prob: number): string {
|
|||
|
|
return (prob * 100).toFixed(1) + "%";
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
function getProbabilityChange(before: number, after: number): string {
|
|||
|
|
const diff = (after - before) * 100;
|
|||
|
|
if (Math.abs(diff) < 0.1) return "—";
|
|||
|
|
const sign = diff > 0 ? "+" : "";
|
|||
|
|
return sign + diff.toFixed(1) + "%";
|
|||
|
|
}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
return (
|
|||
|
|
<div className="container mx-auto py-8 px-4">
|
|||
|
|
<div className="mb-6">
|
|||
|
|
<Button variant="ghost" size="sm" asChild>
|
|||
|
|
<Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}`}>
|
|||
|
|
<ArrowLeft className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
|
|||
|
|
Back to Sports Season
|
|||
|
|
</Link>
|
|||
|
|
</Button>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<div className="max-w-6xl mx-auto space-y-6">
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
<h1 className="text-3xl font-bold mb-2">Recalculate Probabilities</h1>
|
|||
|
|
<p className="text-muted-foreground">
|
|||
|
|
{sportsSeason.name} — {sportsSeason.year}
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
{invalidProbabilities.length > 0 && (
|
|||
|
|
<Card className="border-yellow-500 bg-yellow-500/10">
|
|||
|
|
<CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
|||
|
|
<AlertTriangle className="h-5 w-5 text-yellow-600" />
|
|||
|
|
<CardTitle className="text-yellow-600">
|
|||
|
|
Invalid Probability Data Detected
|
|||
|
|
</CardTitle>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
{invalidProbabilities.length} participant(s) have probabilities greater than 100%, which indicates corrupted data
|
|||
|
|
</CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
</CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="space-y-2 text-sm">
|
|||
|
|
<p>
|
|||
|
|
The following participants have invalid probabilities (marked with ⚠️ in the table below):
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
<ul className="list-disc list-inside">
|
|||
|
|
{invalidProbabilities.slice(0, 5).map((p) => (
|
|||
|
|
<li key={p.participantId}>
|
|||
|
|
{p.participantName}: P(1st) = {formatProbability(p.before[0])}
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
))}
|
|||
|
|
{invalidProbabilities.length > 5 && (
|
|||
|
|
<li>... and {invalidProbabilities.length - 5} more</li>
|
|||
|
|
)}
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
<p className="mt-4 text-muted-foreground">
|
|||
|
|
<strong>Solution:</strong> Go to the{" "}
|
|||
|
|
<Link
|
|||
|
|
to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/futures-odds`}
|
|||
|
|
className="underline"
|
|||
|
|
>
|
|||
|
|
Futures Odds page
|
|||
|
|
</Link>{" "}
|
|||
|
|
and regenerate probabilities from current betting odds to fix this data.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
</Card>
|
|||
|
|
)}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
{actionData?.success ? (
|
|||
|
|
<Card className="border-green-500 bg-green-500/10">
|
|||
|
|
<CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
|||
|
|
<CheckCircle className="h-5 w-5 text-green-600" />
|
|||
|
|
<CardTitle className="text-green-600">
|
|||
|
|
Probabilities Updated Successfully
|
|||
|
|
</CardTitle>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
{actionData.result?.updated} participant
|
|||
|
|
{actionData.result?.updated !== 1 ? "s" : ""} updated
|
|||
|
|
</CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
</CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="space-y-2 text-sm">
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
Finished participants: {actionData.result?.finishedParticipants}
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
Recalculated participants: {actionData.result?.unfishedParticipants}
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<Button className="mt-4" asChild>
|
|||
|
|
<Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/expected-values`}>
|
|||
|
|
View Expected Values
|
|||
|
|
</Link>
|
|||
|
|
</Button>
|
|||
|
|
</CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
</Card>
|
|||
|
|
) : actionData?.error ? (
|
|||
|
|
<Card className="border-destructive bg-destructive/10">
|
|||
|
|
<CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
|
|||
|
|
<AlertTriangle className="h-5 w-5 text-destructive" />
|
|||
|
|
<CardTitle className="text-destructive">Error</CardTitle>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<CardDescription className="text-destructive/80">
|
|||
|
|
{actionData.error}
|
|||
|
|
</CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
</CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
</Card>
|
|||
|
|
) : null}
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<Card>
|
|||
|
|
<CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardTitle>Summary</CardTitle>
|
|||
|
|
<CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
Current state of participant results and probabilities
|
|||
|
|
</CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
</CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4">
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="text-2xl font-bold">{finishedCount}</div>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
|
|||
|
|
Finished Participants
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="text-2xl font-bold">{unfinishedCount}</div>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
|
|||
|
|
Unfinished Participants
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
<div>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="text-2xl font-bold">{changesCount}</div>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
|
|||
|
|
Changes to Apply
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
</Card>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
{changesCount === 0 ? (
|
|||
|
|
<Card>
|
|||
|
|
<CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardTitle>No Changes Needed</CardTitle>
|
|||
|
|
<CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
All finished participants already have their probabilities set correctly.
|
|||
|
|
</CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
</CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
<p className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
|
|||
|
|
Either no participants have finished yet, or their probabilities are
|
|||
|
|
already up to date.
|
|||
|
|
</p>
|
|||
|
|
</CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
</Card>
|
|||
|
|
) : (
|
|||
|
|
<>
|
|||
|
|
<Card>
|
|||
|
|
<CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardTitle>Probability Changes</CardTitle>
|
|||
|
|
<CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
Preview of changes that will be applied
|
|||
|
|
</CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
</CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
<Table>
|
|||
|
|
<TableHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<TableRow>
|
|||
|
|
<TableHead>Participant</TableHead>
|
|||
|
|
<TableHead>Status</TableHead>
|
|||
|
|
<TableHead className="text-right">P(1st) Before</TableHead>
|
|||
|
|
<TableHead className="text-right">P(1st) After</TableHead>
|
|||
|
|
<TableHead className="text-right">P(2nd) After</TableHead>
|
|||
|
|
<TableHead className="text-right">P(3rd) After</TableHead>
|
|||
|
|
</TableRow>
|
|||
|
|
</TableHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<TableBody>
|
|||
|
|
{preview
|
|||
|
|
.filter((p: ProbabilityComparison) => p.status === "finished")
|
|||
|
|
.map((p: ProbabilityComparison) => {
|
|||
|
|
const result = results.find(
|
|||
|
|
(r: typeof results[0]) => r.participantId === p.participantId
|
|||
|
|
);
|
|||
|
|
const finalPosition = result?.finalPosition;
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
return (
|
|||
|
|
<TableRow key={p.participantId}>
|
|||
|
|
<TableCell className="font-medium">
|
|||
|
|
{p.participantName}
|
|||
|
|
</TableCell>
|
|||
|
|
<TableCell>
|
|||
|
|
<Badge variant="default">
|
|||
|
|
Finished {finalPosition ? `${finalPosition}${
|
|||
|
|
finalPosition === 1
|
|||
|
|
? "st"
|
|||
|
|
: finalPosition === 2
|
|||
|
|
? "nd"
|
|||
|
|
: finalPosition === 3
|
|||
|
|
? "rd"
|
|||
|
|
: "th"
|
|||
|
|
}` : ""}
|
|||
|
|
</Badge>
|
|||
|
|
</TableCell>
|
|||
|
|
<TableCell className="text-right font-mono text-sm">
|
|||
|
|
<div className={p.before[0] > 1 ? "text-destructive" : ""}>
|
|||
|
|
{formatProbability(p.before[0])}
|
|||
|
|
{p.before[0] > 1 && " ⚠️"}
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</TableCell>
|
|||
|
|
<TableCell className="text-right font-mono text-sm">
|
|||
|
|
<div>{formatProbability(p.after[0])}</div>
|
|||
|
|
<div className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">
|
|||
|
|
{getProbabilityChange(p.before[0], p.after[0])}
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</TableCell>
|
|||
|
|
<TableCell className="text-right font-mono text-sm">
|
|||
|
|
<div>{formatProbability(p.after[1])}</div>
|
|||
|
|
</TableCell>
|
|||
|
|
<TableCell className="text-right font-mono text-sm">
|
|||
|
|
<div>{formatProbability(p.after[2])}</div>
|
|||
|
|
</TableCell>
|
|||
|
|
</TableRow>
|
|||
|
|
);
|
|||
|
|
})}
|
|||
|
|
</TableBody>
|
|||
|
|
</Table>
|
|||
|
|
</CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
</Card>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<Card>
|
|||
|
|
<CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardTitle>Apply Changes</CardTitle>
|
|||
|
|
<CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
Update probabilities based on real results
|
|||
|
|
</CardDescription>
|
|||
|
|
</CardHeader>
|
|||
|
|
<CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
<Form method="post" className="space-y-4">
|
|||
|
|
<input type="hidden" name="intent" value="recalculate" />
|
|||
|
|
<input
|
|||
|
|
type="hidden"
|
|||
|
|
name="recalculateUnfinished"
|
|||
|
|
value="true"
|
|||
|
|
/>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<div className="bg-blue-500/10 border border-blue-500/20 rounded-lg p-4">
|
|||
|
|
<h4 className="font-semibold text-sm mb-2">What happens:</h4>
|
|||
|
|
<ul className="text-sm space-y-1 text-muted-foreground">
|
|||
|
|
<li>
|
|||
|
|
• Finished participants get 100% probability at their final
|
|||
|
|
position
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
<li>
|
|||
|
|
• Unfinished participants get recalculated probabilities based
|
|||
|
|
on remaining competition
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
<li>
|
|||
|
|
• Expected values will be automatically updated for all
|
|||
|
|
affected leagues
|
|||
|
|
</li>
|
|||
|
|
</ul>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
<div className="flex gap-4">
|
|||
|
|
<Button
|
|||
|
|
type="submit"
|
|||
|
|
className="flex-1"
|
|||
|
|
disabled={changesCount === 0}
|
|||
|
|
>
|
|||
|
|
<RefreshCw className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
|
|||
|
|
Apply {changesCount} Change
|
|||
|
|
{changesCount !== 1 ? "s" : ""}
|
|||
|
|
</Button>
|
|||
|
|
<Button type="button" variant="outline" asChild>
|
|||
|
|
<Link to={`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}`}>
|
|||
|
|
Cancel
|
|||
|
|
</Link>
|
|||
|
|
</Button>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</Form>
|
|||
|
|
</CardContent>
|
|||
|
|
</Card>
|
|||
|
|
</>
|
|||
|
|
)}
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
</div>
|
|||
|
|
);
|
|||
|
|
}
|