brackt/drizzle/meta/_journal.json

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feat: implement Expected Value System with ICM probability calculator Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds. ## Key Features ### ICM Probability Calculator - Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities - Converts American odds to championship probabilities - Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants - Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams - Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8) ### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry - Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures - Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions - Displays all 8 placement probabilities - Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits - Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig) ### Database Schema Updates - Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id - Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons - Added source_odds field to store original futures odds - Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update - Migration 0026: Add source_odds field ### Model Layer - participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions - Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation) - Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules - Probability validation and normalization ### Service Layer - icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution - probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use) - bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach) - ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities ## Technical Details - Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams - Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions - Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower) - All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid - Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing ## Future Enhancements - Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs - Integration with league-specific scoring rules - Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-17 22:19:46 -08:00
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fix: harden draft timer system with race-condition safety and DRY refactor (#34) - Fix settings action silently resetting timer values when draft speed select is disabled (add null guard before overwriting draftInitialTime/ draftIncrementTime) - Make timer decrement and pick increment atomic using SQL expressions to prevent read-modify-write races between the timer loop and HTTP handlers - Add UNIQUE INDEX on (season_id, pick_number) in draft_picks to prevent duplicate picks from concurrent requests (TOCTOU guard) - Add socket join-draft team ownership validation via DB query - Add iteration cap to autodraft chain while loop (max = totalTeams) - Add draftPaused re-check before firing autodraft chain in make-pick and force-manual-pick - Consolidate all snake draft calculations into calculatePickInfo (DRY); remove duplicated logic from timer.ts, make-pick, force-manual-pick, executeAutoPick, and checkAndTriggerNextAutodraft - Fix calculatePickInfo to return snake-adjusted pickInRound matching draftOrder values instead of raw pre-snake value - Fix timer-update socket events to emit nextPickNumber after a pick instead of the already-completed currentPickNumber - Fix force-manual-pick to validate submitted teamId matches the team whose turn it actually is at the given pick number - Replace inline timer init in draft.start with deleteSeasonTimers + initializeDraftTimers model functions (dead code fix) - Fix draft loader to not crash when getTeamQueue fails (returns []) - Fix misleading 403 message for commissioner picks - Remove dead hidden inputs from league settings form - Document connectedTeams single-instance limitation in socket.ts Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-23 23:23:24 -08:00
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Claude/redesign autodraft queue c4 kp r (#40) * Redesign autodraft queue system with three-state control and queue-only constraint Core Logic & Database: - Add `queue_only` boolean column to `autodraft_settings` (migration 0031) - Rename autodraft UI states: Off / Next Pick / All Picks (while_on mode maps to All Picks) - `autoPickForTeam`: respects new `queueOnly` param — skips EV fallback when enabled - `executeAutoPick`: auto-disables autodraft + emits socket event when queue empties with queueOnly ON (AC3) - `autodraft-updated` socket event now includes `queueOnly` field Mobile UI Overhaul: - Rename "Lobby" tab → "Available" (AC6) - Add new "Queue" tab to mobile bottom nav with drag-reorder, per-item Draft buttons, and autodraft controls (AC5) - Controls tab retains commissioner tools, notifications, exit; queue controls moved to Queue tab - Turn indicator appears on both Available and Queue tabs Components: - `AutodraftSettings`: replaces toggle+radio with three-state button group (Off | Next Pick | All Picks) + "Only autodraft from queue" switch (AC1, AC2) - `QueueSection`: adds `canPick` prop + per-item Draft buttons for instant drafting when on the clock Desktop (AC4): - Sidebar QueueSection unchanged in position; gains same three-state controls and Draft buttons Tests (AC7): - `autodraft.test.ts`: updated for queueOnly field and socket event shape - `timer-autodraft.test.ts`: new tests for queue-only constraint, auto-shutoff transitions, and all three autodraft states https://claude.ai/code/session_01PYhJicAStoJ2u6q6dV1naB * fix: remove erroneous ?? fallbacks in autodraft socket emissions and add autoPickForTeam tests - Remove `?? true` default on queueOnly in queue-empty auto-disable socket emit (line 488) — was dead code since the column is NOT NULL, but semantically wrong and would have caused client-side UI desync if the type ever relaxed - Remove `?? false` default on the next_pick auto-disable path for consistency - Add app/models/__tests__/auto-pick.test.ts with 6 tests covering the queueOnly constraint: empty queue, all items drafted, partial queue skip, and EV fallback Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix: add missing queueOnly prop to AutodraftSettings test fixtures Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * test: rewrite AutodraftSettings tests for three-state button group UI The component was redesigned from a switch + radio buttons to Off/Next Pick/All Picks buttons with a separate queue-only Switch toggle. Updated 17 stale tests and added 5 new tests covering the queue-only toggle and the All Picks/Off button interactions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-02-27 22:16:26 -08:00
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