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brackt/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.futures-odds.tsx

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Centralize futures odds onto the simulator page and fix bulk import (#117) Futures odds entry was split across two unrelated places: a standalone /futures-odds page (which auto-ran the simulation on save and surfaced a "Simulator is not ready" run failure as if the save itself had failed) and the Bulk Simulator Inputs CSV importer on the simulator setup page. Consolidate everything onto the Bulk Simulator Inputs card: - batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs now COALESCE-wraps every conflict update column, so a partial paste (e.g. odds-only) updates just the columns it provides instead of nulling out previously stored Elo/rating/etc. - The bulk importer accepts sportsbook-style paste (one team per line ending in American odds) when no CSV header is present, reusing the existing fuzzy matcher, and auto-runs the simulation on save. A not-ready run is reported as a successful save plus the readiness gap, never as a failed save. - Retire the standalone /futures-odds page (now redirects to the simulator setup page) and drop the redundant Futures links. - Remove the now-dead futures-only model paths (batchSaveSourceOdds, clearSourceOddsForParticipants, batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator, batchSaveParticipantSimulatorSourceOdds); the EV-table bridge is preserved by batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs. - Repoint the test to the consolidated path and assert the non-destructive COALESCE behaviour. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BHnoQ7myY3PzNdTnd7iGNE Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/117
2026-06-30 17:05:52 +00:00
import { redirect } from 'react-router';
feat: implement Expected Value System with ICM probability calculator Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds. ## Key Features ### ICM Probability Calculator - Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities - Converts American odds to championship probabilities - Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants - Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams - Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8) ### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry - Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures - Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions - Displays all 8 placement probabilities - Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits - Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig) ### Database Schema Updates - Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id - Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons - Added source_odds field to store original futures odds - Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update - Migration 0026: Add source_odds field ### Model Layer - participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions - Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation) - Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules - Probability validation and normalization ### Service Layer - icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution - probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use) - bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach) - ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities ## Technical Details - Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams - Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions - Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower) - All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid - Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing ## Future Enhancements - Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs - Integration with league-specific scoring rules - Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-17 22:19:46 -08:00
import type { Route } from './+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.futures-odds';
feat: add meta title to all route pages (#109) Every route now exports a meta function so the browser title bar reflects the current page. Static pages use fixed titles; dynamic pages pull names from loader data with a sensible fallback (e.g. league name, sport season name, team name). Titles follow the pattern "Page Name - Brackt" for user-facing routes and "Page Name - Brackt Admin" for admin routes. Fixes #74 Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-10 12:10:52 -07:00
Centralize futures odds onto the simulator page and fix bulk import (#117) Futures odds entry was split across two unrelated places: a standalone /futures-odds page (which auto-ran the simulation on save and surfaced a "Simulator is not ready" run failure as if the save itself had failed) and the Bulk Simulator Inputs CSV importer on the simulator setup page. Consolidate everything onto the Bulk Simulator Inputs card: - batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs now COALESCE-wraps every conflict update column, so a partial paste (e.g. odds-only) updates just the columns it provides instead of nulling out previously stored Elo/rating/etc. - The bulk importer accepts sportsbook-style paste (one team per line ending in American odds) when no CSV header is present, reusing the existing fuzzy matcher, and auto-runs the simulation on save. A not-ready run is reported as a successful save plus the readiness gap, never as a failed save. - Retire the standalone /futures-odds page (now redirects to the simulator setup page) and drop the redundant Futures links. - Remove the now-dead futures-only model paths (batchSaveSourceOdds, clearSourceOddsForParticipants, batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator, batchSaveParticipantSimulatorSourceOdds); the EV-table bridge is preserved by batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs. - Repoint the test to the consolidated path and assert the non-destructive COALESCE behaviour. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BHnoQ7myY3PzNdTnd7iGNE Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/117
2026-06-30 17:05:52 +00:00
// Futures odds entry has been consolidated into the Bulk Simulator Inputs card on
// the simulator setup page (paste sportsbook lines like `Chiefs +450` or a CSV with
// a sourceOdds column). This route now just redirects old bookmarks/links there.
feat: implement Expected Value System with ICM probability calculator Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds. ## Key Features ### ICM Probability Calculator - Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities - Converts American odds to championship probabilities - Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants - Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams - Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8) ### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry - Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures - Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions - Displays all 8 placement probabilities - Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits - Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig) ### Database Schema Updates - Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id - Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons - Added source_odds field to store original futures odds - Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update - Migration 0026: Add source_odds field ### Model Layer - participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions - Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation) - Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules - Probability validation and normalization ### Service Layer - icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution - probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use) - bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach) - ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities ## Technical Details - Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams - Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions - Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower) - All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid - Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing ## Future Enhancements - Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs - Integration with league-specific scoring rules - Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-17 22:19:46 -08:00
export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
Centralize futures odds onto the simulator page and fix bulk import (#117) Futures odds entry was split across two unrelated places: a standalone /futures-odds page (which auto-ran the simulation on save and surfaced a "Simulator is not ready" run failure as if the save itself had failed) and the Bulk Simulator Inputs CSV importer on the simulator setup page. Consolidate everything onto the Bulk Simulator Inputs card: - batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs now COALESCE-wraps every conflict update column, so a partial paste (e.g. odds-only) updates just the columns it provides instead of nulling out previously stored Elo/rating/etc. - The bulk importer accepts sportsbook-style paste (one team per line ending in American odds) when no CSV header is present, reusing the existing fuzzy matcher, and auto-runs the simulation on save. A not-ready run is reported as a successful save plus the readiness gap, never as a failed save. - Retire the standalone /futures-odds page (now redirects to the simulator setup page) and drop the redundant Futures links. - Remove the now-dead futures-only model paths (batchSaveSourceOdds, clearSourceOddsForParticipants, batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator, batchSaveParticipantSimulatorSourceOdds); the EV-table bridge is preserved by batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs. - Repoint the test to the consolidated path and assert the non-destructive COALESCE behaviour. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BHnoQ7myY3PzNdTnd7iGNE Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: https://forge.brackt.com/chrisp/brackt/pulls/117
2026-06-30 17:05:52 +00:00
return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${params.id}/simulator`);
feat: implement Expected Value System with ICM probability calculator Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds. ## Key Features ### ICM Probability Calculator - Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities - Converts American odds to championship probabilities - Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants - Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams - Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8) ### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry - Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures - Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions - Displays all 8 placement probabilities - Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits - Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig) ### Database Schema Updates - Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id - Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons - Added source_odds field to store original futures odds - Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update - Migration 0026: Add source_odds field ### Model Layer - participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions - Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation) - Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules - Probability validation and normalization ### Service Layer - icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution - probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use) - bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach) - ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities ## Technical Details - Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams - Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions - Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower) - All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid - Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing ## Future Enhancements - Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs - Integration with league-specific scoring rules - Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-17 22:19:46 -08:00
}
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