brackt/app/models/__tests__/futures-odds-simulator.test.ts

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Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL). Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator() only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale `sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver. Fix: - batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run. - resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500. - batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating. Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
2026-06-25 17:43:31 +00:00
import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach } from "vitest";
// Mock the database context before importing any model
vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({
database: vi.fn(),
}));
import { database } from "~/database/context";
import { batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator } from "../simulator";
type SetPayload = Record<string, unknown>;
const conflictSetCalls: SetPayload[] = [];
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
const onConflictDoUpdate = vi.fn((arg: { set: SetPayload }) => {
conflictSetCalls.push(arg.set);
return Promise.resolve(undefined);
});
Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL). Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator() only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale `sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver. Fix: - batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run. - resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500. - batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating. Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
2026-06-25 17:43:31 +00:00
const mockDb = {
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
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insert: vi.fn(() => ({
values: vi.fn(() => ({ onConflictDoUpdate })),
})),
Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL). Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator() only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale `sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver. Fix: - batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run. - resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500. - batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating. Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
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};
beforeEach(() => {
vi.clearAllMocks();
conflictSetCalls.length = 0;
(database as ReturnType<typeof vi.fn>).mockReturnValue(mockDb);
});
describe("batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator", () => {
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
it("persists odds without destroying a stored Elo/rating", async () => {
Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL). Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator() only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale `sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver. Fix: - batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run. - resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500. - batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating. Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
2026-06-25 17:43:31 +00:00
await batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator([
{ participantId: "team-1", sportsSeasonId: "season-1", sourceOdds: 550 },
]);
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
// The upsert writes the odds and leaves Elo/rating untouched — whether the
// odds override them is now decided by the configurable source priority,
// not by nulling stored values here.
expect(mockDb.insert).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL). Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator() only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale `sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver. Fix: - batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run. - resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500. - batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating. Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
2026-06-25 17:43:31 +00:00
expect(conflictSetCalls).toHaveLength(1);
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
expect(conflictSetCalls[0]).toHaveProperty("sourceOdds");
expect(conflictSetCalls[0]).not.toHaveProperty("sourceElo");
expect(conflictSetCalls[0]).not.toHaveProperty("rating");
Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL). Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator() only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale `sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver. Fix: - batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run. - resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500. - batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating. Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
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});
it("is a no-op when given no inputs", async () => {
await batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator([]);
Unify futures odds with the simulation system Make the futures-vs-Elo relationship an explicit, configurable rule and fix futures odds failing to override stored Elo. Root causes addressed: - resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings used a hardcoded precedence (direct Elo -> projectedWins -> projectedTablePoints -> odds). The prior fix nulled sourceElo on futures entry but not projections, which still outranked odds. - The override relied on a destructive null-on-save hack that also wiped manually entered Elo. - Blended simulators buried their Elo/odds weight in module constants. - Futures odds were not surfaced on the /admin/simulators inventory. Changes: - Add a configurable source policy: sourceEloPriority (ordered) and oddsWeight, parsed/clamped in getSimulatorInputPolicy. resolveSourceElos/resolveRatings now resolve each participant by the configured priority instead of a fixed order. Futures-centric simulators (ncaam, ncaaw, world_cup, ncaa_football, college_hockey) default to a futures-override priority. - Drop the destructive nulling in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator and batchSaveSourceOdds; override is now governed by policy, preserving stored Elo. - Thread an optional SimulationContext (oddsWeight) through the Simulator interface so blended sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA FB, MLB) read the blend weight from the season policy; defaults preserve prior calibration when no context is passed. - Add a "Futures vs. Elo" strategy control and Odds Blend Weight input to the Simulator Setup input-policy card, persisted via save-input-policy. - Surface futures on /admin/simulators: a source badge and a Futures Odds quick link; extend listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries with odds source info. - Tests: configurable priority override (Elo/projections/rating), oddsWeight parsing/clamping, prefersFuturesOdds, manifest defaults, an NCAA Football context-blend behavioral test, and an updated non-destructive save test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01QhNeB7gN6VKene7sdbBVQT
2026-06-25 22:11:32 +00:00
expect(mockDb.insert).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL). Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator() only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale `sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver. Fix: - batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run. - resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500. - batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating. Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
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});
});