Fix EPL simulator parity config (#421)
This commit is contained in:
Chris Parsons
GitHub
parent
af64a29cfa
commit
06339fd4b6
8 changed files with 186 additions and 34 deletions
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@ -462,7 +462,15 @@ export async function clearSourceOddsForParticipants(
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* Uses INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE to avoid N+1 queries.
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*/
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export async function batchSaveSourceElos(
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inputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number | null; worldRanking?: number | null }>
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inputs: Array<{
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participantId: string;
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sportsSeasonId: string;
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sourceElo: number | null;
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worldRanking?: number | null;
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projectedWins?: number | null;
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projectedTablePoints?: number | null;
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metadata?: Record<string, unknown> | null;
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}>
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): Promise<void> {
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if (inputs.length === 0) return;
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const db = database();
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@ -505,6 +513,9 @@ export async function batchSaveSourceElos(
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sportsSeasonId: input.sportsSeasonId,
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sourceElo: input.sourceElo,
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worldRanking: input.worldRanking ?? null,
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projectedWins: input.projectedWins ?? null,
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projectedTablePoints: input.projectedTablePoints ?? null,
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metadata: input.metadata ?? null,
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}))
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);
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}
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@ -126,15 +126,24 @@ function isFallbackMethod(method: string): boolean {
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}
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const GENERATED_RATING_METHODS = ["sourceOdds", "fallbackRating", "averageKnown", "worstKnownMinus"] as const;
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const GENERATED_SOURCE_ELO_METHODS = ["projectedWins", "projectedTablePoints", "sourceOdds", "fallbackElo", "averageKnown", "worstKnownMinus"] as const;
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function isGeneratedRatingMethod(method: unknown): boolean {
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return typeof method === "string" && GENERATED_RATING_METHODS.includes(method as (typeof GENERATED_RATING_METHODS)[number]);
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}
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function isGeneratedSourceEloMethod(method: unknown): boolean {
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return typeof method === "string" && GENERATED_SOURCE_ELO_METHODS.includes(method as (typeof GENERATED_SOURCE_ELO_METHODS)[number]);
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}
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function isGeneratedRatingInput(input: typeof schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.$inferSelect | undefined): boolean {
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return isGeneratedRatingMethod(input?.metadata?.ratingMethod);
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}
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function isGeneratedSourceEloInput(input: typeof schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.$inferSelect | undefined): boolean {
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return isGeneratedSourceEloMethod(input?.metadata?.sourceEloMethod);
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}
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function inputRequirementLabel(
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key: SimulatorInputKey,
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profile: SimulatorManifestProfile
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@ -277,7 +286,9 @@ export async function getParticipantSimulatorInputs(
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participantId: participant.id,
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sportsSeasonId,
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sourceOdds: input?.sourceOdds ?? legacy?.sourceOdds ?? null,
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sourceElo: input?.sourceElo ?? legacy?.sourceElo ?? null,
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sourceElo: input
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? isGeneratedSourceEloInput(input) ? null : input.sourceElo
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: legacy?.sourceElo ?? null,
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worldRanking: input?.worldRanking ?? legacy?.worldRanking ?? null,
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rating: isGeneratedRatingInput(input) ? null : parseDecimal(input?.rating),
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projectedWins: parseDecimal(input?.projectedWins),
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@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ import {
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import { useState } from 'react';
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import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle } from 'lucide-react';
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import { normalizeName } from '~/lib/fuzzy-match';
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import { getSimulatorConfig, supportsProjectedWins } from '~/services/simulations/simulator-config';
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import { getSimulatorConfig, supportsProjectedWins, type SimulatorConfig } from '~/services/simulations/simulator-config';
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import {
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eloToProjectedTablePoints,
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eloToProjectedWins,
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@ -31,6 +31,7 @@ import {
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projectedWinsToElo,
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} from '~/services/probability-engine';
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import { runSportsSeasonSimulation } from '~/services/simulations/runner';
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import { getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig } from '~/models/simulator';
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// Simulator types that use worldRanking in addition to sourceElo
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const RANKING_SIMULATOR_TYPES = new Set(['darts_bracket', 'cs2_major_qualifying_points', 'college_hockey_bracket']);
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@ -42,6 +43,28 @@ function rankingLabel(simulatorType: string | null | undefined): string {
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return 'World Rank';
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}
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function configNumber(config: Record<string, unknown> | undefined, key: string, fallback: number): number {
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const value = config?.[key];
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return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) ? value : fallback;
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}
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async function getProjectionSimulatorConfig(
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sportsSeasonId: string,
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simulatorType: SimulatorType
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): Promise<SimulatorConfig | null> {
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const baseConfig = getSimulatorConfig(simulatorType);
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if (!baseConfig) return null;
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const runtimeConfig = await getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId);
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const config = runtimeConfig?.config;
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return {
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...baseConfig,
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seasonGames: configNumber(config, 'seasonGames', baseConfig.seasonGames),
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parityFactor: configNumber(config, 'parityFactor', baseConfig.parityFactor),
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averageOpponentElo: configNumber(config, 'averageOpponentElo', baseConfig.averageOpponentElo),
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};
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}
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export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
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return [{ title: `Elo Ratings — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
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}
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@ -69,7 +92,7 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
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const usesRanking = RANKING_SIMULATOR_TYPES.has(sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType ?? '');
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const simulatorConfig = sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType
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? getSimulatorConfig(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType)
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? await getProjectionSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId, sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType)
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: null;
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const canUseProjectedWins = sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType
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? supportsProjectedWins(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType)
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@ -99,10 +122,18 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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const rawMode = formData.get('inputMode');
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const inputMode = rawMode === 'projectedWins' ? 'projectedWins' : 'elo';
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const eloInputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number | null; worldRanking?: number | null }> = [];
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const eloInputs: Array<{
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participantId: string;
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sportsSeasonId: string;
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sourceElo: number | null;
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worldRanking?: number | null;
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projectedWins?: number | null;
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projectedTablePoints?: number | null;
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metadata?: Record<string, unknown> | null;
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}> = [];
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if (inputMode === 'projectedWins' && sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType) {
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const config = getSimulatorConfig(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType);
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const config = await getProjectionSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId, sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType);
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if (!config) {
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return { success: false, message: 'This sport does not support projection input.' };
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}
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@ -116,7 +147,16 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
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const elo = config.projectionInput === 'tablePoints'
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? projectedTablePointsToElo(projectedWins, config.seasonGames, config.parityFactor, config.averageOpponentElo)
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: projectedWinsToElo(projectedWins, config.seasonGames, config.parityFactor, config.averageOpponentElo);
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eloInputs.push({ participantId: participant.id, sportsSeasonId, sourceElo: elo });
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eloInputs.push({
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participantId: participant.id,
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sportsSeasonId,
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sourceElo: elo,
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projectedWins: config.projectionInput === 'tablePoints' ? null : projectedWins,
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projectedTablePoints: config.projectionInput === 'tablePoints' ? projectedWins : null,
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metadata: {
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sourceEloMethod: config.projectionInput === 'tablePoints' ? 'projectedTablePoints' : 'projectedWins',
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},
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});
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}
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}
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}
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@ -9,6 +9,10 @@ vi.mock("~/models/regular-season-standings", () => ({
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getRegularSeasonStandings: vi.fn(),
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}));
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vi.mock("~/models/simulator", () => ({
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getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig: vi.fn(),
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}));
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const EPL_TEAMS = [
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"Arsenal", "Manchester City", "Liverpool", "Chelsea", "Tottenham Hotspur",
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"Manchester United", "Newcastle United", "Aston Villa", "Brighton & Hove Albion", "West Ham United",
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@ -36,14 +40,22 @@ function mockSelects(participantRows = PARTICIPANT_ROWS, evRows = EV_ROWS) {
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describe("EPL match helpers", () => {
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it("returns 0.5 win probability for equal Elo ratings", () => {
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expect(eplWinProbability(1500, 1500)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 6);
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expect(eplWinProbability(1500, 1500, 400)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 6);
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});
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it("supports a configurable match parity factor", () => {
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const standard = eplWinProbability(1700, 1500, 400);
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const higherParity = eplWinProbability(1700, 1500, 1000);
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expect(standard).toBeGreaterThan(higherParity);
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expect(higherParity).toBeGreaterThan(0.5);
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});
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it("equal Elo teams draw at a realistic rate", () => {
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let draws = 0;
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const N = 5000;
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for (let i = 0; i < N; i++) {
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if (simEplMatch(1500, 1500) === "draw") draws++;
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if (simEplMatch(1500, 1500, { matchParityFactor: 400 }) === "draw") draws++;
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}
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const drawRate = draws / N;
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expect(drawRate).toBeGreaterThan(0.21);
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@ -57,10 +69,14 @@ describe("EPLSimulator.simulate()", () => {
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beforeEach(async () => {
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const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
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const { getRegularSeasonStandings } = await import("~/models/regular-season-standings");
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const { getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig } = await import("~/models/simulator");
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mockDb = { select: mockSelects() };
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(database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb);
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(getRegularSeasonStandings as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([]);
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(getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue({
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config: { iterations: 10_000, matchParityFactor: 400 },
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});
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});
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it("throws if no participants found", async () => {
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@ -6,6 +6,10 @@ const profile = {
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derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
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} as Pick<SimulatorManifestProfile, "derivableInputs">;
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const tablePointsProfile = {
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derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedTablePoints"] },
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} as Pick<SimulatorManifestProfile, "derivableInputs">;
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describe("simulator input policy", () => {
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it("keeps direct Elo ahead of derived values", () => {
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const resolved = resolveSourceElos(
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@ -28,6 +32,28 @@ describe("simulator input policy", () => {
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expect(resolved.get("team-1")?.sourceElo).toBeGreaterThan(1500);
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});
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it("uses parityFactor as the projected table points to Elo spread", () => {
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const input = {
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participantId: "team-1",
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sourceElo: null,
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rating: null,
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sourceOdds: null,
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projectedWins: null,
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projectedTablePoints: 76,
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};
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const compressed = resolveSourceElos([input], tablePointsProfile, {
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seasonGames: 38,
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parityFactor: 250,
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});
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const wider = resolveSourceElos([input], tablePointsProfile, {
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seasonGames: 38,
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parityFactor: 1000,
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});
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expect(compressed.get("team-1")?.sourceElo).toBeLessThan(wider.get("team-1")?.sourceElo ?? 0);
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});
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it("blocks missing Elo unless a fallback strategy is configured", () => {
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const inputs = [{ participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }];
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@ -39,4 +39,14 @@ describe("simulator manifest", () => {
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}
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}
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});
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it("keeps EPL projection and match parity as separate config knobs", () => {
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expect(SIMULATOR_MANIFEST.epl_standings.defaultConfig).toMatchObject({
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parityFactor: 400,
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matchParityFactor: 400,
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averageOpponentElo: 1500,
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baseDrawRate: 0.26,
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drawDecay: 0.002,
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});
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});
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});
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@ -17,13 +17,13 @@ import { getRegularSeasonStandings } from "~/models/regular-season-standings";
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import { convertFuturesToElo, eloWinProbabilityWithParity } from "~/services/probability-engine";
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import { normalizeSimulationResultColumns } from "./simulation-probabilities";
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import { simulateEloSoccerMatch, simulateSimpleSoccerGoals } from "./soccer-helpers";
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import { getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig } from "~/models/simulator";
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const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 10_000;
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const EPL_REGULAR_SEASON_GAMES = 38;
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const AVERAGE_OPPONENT_ELO = 1500;
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const PARITY_FACTOR = 400;
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const BASE_DRAW_RATE = 0.26;
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const DRAW_DECAY = 0.002;
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const DEFAULT_NUM_SIMULATIONS = 10_000;
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const DEFAULT_EPL_REGULAR_SEASON_GAMES = 38;
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const DEFAULT_AVERAGE_OPPONENT_ELO = 1500;
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const DEFAULT_BASE_DRAW_RATE = 0.26;
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const DEFAULT_DRAW_DECAY = 0.002;
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interface TeamEntry {
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id: string;
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@ -44,17 +44,36 @@ interface SimulatedTableRow {
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tiebreaker: number;
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}
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function configNumber(config: Record<string, unknown> | undefined, key: string, fallback: number): number {
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const value = config?.[key];
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return typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) && value > 0 ? value : fallback;
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}
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function requiredConfigNumber(config: Record<string, unknown> | undefined, key: string): number {
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const value = config?.[key];
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if (typeof value === "number" && Number.isFinite(value) && value > 0) return value;
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throw new Error(`EPL simulator config is missing positive numeric ${key}.`);
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}
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/** EPL single-match win probability using the sport-specific parity factor. */
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export function eplWinProbability(eloA: number, eloB: number): number {
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return eloWinProbabilityWithParity(eloA, eloB, PARITY_FACTOR);
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export function eplWinProbability(
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eloA: number,
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eloB: number,
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parityFactor: number
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): number {
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return eloWinProbabilityWithParity(eloA, eloB, parityFactor);
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}
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/** Simulate an EPL match result for team A vs team B. Exported for tests. */
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export function simEplMatch(eloA: number, eloB: number): "win" | "draw" | "loss" {
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export function simEplMatch(
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eloA: number,
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eloB: number,
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options: { baseDrawRate?: number; drawDecay?: number; matchParityFactor: number }
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): "win" | "draw" | "loss" {
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return simulateEloSoccerMatch(eloA, eloB, {
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baseDrawRate: BASE_DRAW_RATE,
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drawDecay: DRAW_DECAY,
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parityFactor: PARITY_FACTOR,
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baseDrawRate: options?.baseDrawRate ?? DEFAULT_BASE_DRAW_RATE,
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drawDecay: options?.drawDecay ?? DEFAULT_DRAW_DECAY,
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parityFactor: options.matchParityFactor,
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});
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}
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@ -62,7 +81,7 @@ export class EPLSimulator implements Simulator {
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async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
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const db = database();
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const [participantRows, evRows, standings] = await Promise.all([
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const [participantRows, evRows, standings, simulatorConfig] = await Promise.all([
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db
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.select({ id: schema.seasonParticipants.id, name: schema.seasonParticipants.name })
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.from(schema.seasonParticipants)
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@ -76,8 +95,19 @@ export class EPLSimulator implements Simulator {
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.from(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
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.where(eq(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId)),
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getRegularSeasonStandings(sportsSeasonId),
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getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId),
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]);
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const config = simulatorConfig?.config;
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const numSimulations = Math.round(configNumber(config, "iterations", DEFAULT_NUM_SIMULATIONS));
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const seasonGames = Math.round(configNumber(config, "seasonGames", DEFAULT_EPL_REGULAR_SEASON_GAMES));
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const averageOpponentElo = configNumber(config, "averageOpponentElo", DEFAULT_AVERAGE_OPPONENT_ELO);
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const matchOptions = {
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baseDrawRate: configNumber(config, "baseDrawRate", DEFAULT_BASE_DRAW_RATE),
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drawDecay: configNumber(config, "drawDecay", DEFAULT_DRAW_DECAY),
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matchParityFactor: requiredConfigNumber(config, "matchParityFactor"),
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};
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if (participantRows.length === 0) {
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throw new Error(
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`No participants found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}. Add all 20 EPL clubs before running simulation.`
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@ -133,7 +163,7 @@ export class EPLSimulator implements Simulator {
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currentGoalsFor: goalsFor,
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currentGoalsAgainst: goalsAgainst,
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currentGoalDifference: goalDifference,
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remainingGames: Math.max(0, EPL_REGULAR_SEASON_GAMES - gamesPlayed),
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remainingGames: Math.max(0, seasonGames - gamesPlayed),
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};
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});
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@ -141,7 +171,7 @@ export class EPLSimulator implements Simulator {
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participantIds.map((id) => [id, Array.from({ length: 8 }, () => 0)])
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);
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for (let sim = 0; sim < NUM_SIMULATIONS; sim++) {
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for (let sim = 0; sim < numSimulations; sim++) {
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const tableRows: SimulatedTableRow[] = teams.map((team) => ({
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team,
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points: team.currentPoints,
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@ -153,7 +183,7 @@ export class EPLSimulator implements Simulator {
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for (const row of tableRows) {
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for (let game = 0; game < row.team.remainingGames; game++) {
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const result = simEplMatch(row.team.elo, AVERAGE_OPPONENT_ELO);
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const result = simEplMatch(row.team.elo, averageOpponentElo, matchOptions);
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const goals = simulateSimpleSoccerGoals(result);
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row.goalsFor += goals.gf;
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row.goalsAgainst += goals.ga;
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@ -182,14 +212,14 @@ export class EPLSimulator implements Simulator {
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return {
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participantId,
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probabilities: {
|
||||
probFirst: counts[0] / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
|
||||
probSecond: counts[1] / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
|
||||
probThird: counts[2] / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
|
||||
probFourth: counts[3] / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
|
||||
probFifth: counts[4] / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
|
||||
probSixth: counts[5] / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
|
||||
probSeventh: counts[6] / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
|
||||
probEighth: counts[7] / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
|
||||
probFirst: counts[0] / numSimulations,
|
||||
probSecond: counts[1] / numSimulations,
|
||||
probThird: counts[2] / numSimulations,
|
||||
probFourth: counts[3] / numSimulations,
|
||||
probFifth: counts[4] / numSimulations,
|
||||
probSixth: counts[5] / numSimulations,
|
||||
probSeventh: counts[6] / numSimulations,
|
||||
probEighth: counts[7] / numSimulations,
|
||||
},
|
||||
source: "epl_standings_monte_carlo",
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -114,7 +114,15 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
|
|||
setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings"],
|
||||
},
|
||||
epl_standings: {
|
||||
defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, seasonGames: 38, baseDrawRate: 0.26, drawDecay: 0.75 },
|
||||
defaultConfig: {
|
||||
...BASE_CONFIG,
|
||||
seasonGames: 38,
|
||||
parityFactor: 400,
|
||||
matchParityFactor: 400,
|
||||
averageOpponentElo: 1500,
|
||||
baseDrawRate: 0.26,
|
||||
drawDecay: 0.002,
|
||||
},
|
||||
requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
|
||||
optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedTablePoints"],
|
||||
derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedTablePoints", "sourceOdds"] },
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Add table
Reference in a new issue