From 0da80bd2c041ac2800caaeb27be3447ab261cf5a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Chris Parsons <438676+chrisparsons83@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 8 Apr 2026 16:52:10 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Add LLWS bracket Monte Carlo simulator (#280) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit * Add LLWS bracket Monte Carlo simulator Simulates the 20-team Little League World Series: pool play round-robin (5 teams/pool, top 2 advance) → 4-team double-elimination per side (US and International) → consolation game → World Series final. Uses championship futures odds as the sole win-probability signal. Pool assignments are auto-detected from externalId: bare "US"/"Intl" randomizes pools each simulation (pre-draw mode); "US:A"/"Intl:B" etc. uses fixed assignments (post-draw mode). Sides can differ. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 * Fix oxlint violations in LLWS simulator - Replace non-null assertions with null-safe access (! → ?? / optional chaining) - Replace .sort() with .toSorted() per linting rules - Promote bump() to simulate() scope and pass it into simulateSideBracket, removing the need to pass counts into that function Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 --- .../__tests__/llws-simulator.test.ts | 272 + app/services/simulations/llws-simulator.ts | 389 ++ app/services/simulations/registry.ts | 9 + database/schema.ts | 1 + drizzle/0073_blushing_lady_vermin.sql | 1 + drizzle/meta/0073_snapshot.json | 4473 +++++++++++++++++ drizzle/meta/_journal.json | 7 + 7 files changed, 5152 insertions(+) create mode 100644 app/services/simulations/__tests__/llws-simulator.test.ts create mode 100644 app/services/simulations/llws-simulator.ts create mode 100644 drizzle/0073_blushing_lady_vermin.sql create mode 100644 drizzle/meta/0073_snapshot.json diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/llws-simulator.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/llws-simulator.test.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b22fb25 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/llws-simulator.test.ts @@ -0,0 +1,272 @@ +import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach, type MockInstance } from "vitest"; +import { LLWSSimulator } from "../llws-simulator"; + +vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({ + database: vi.fn(), +})); + +vi.mock("~/services/probability-engine", async (importOriginal) => { + const actual = await importOriginal() as Record; + return { ...actual }; +}); + +// ─── Fixtures ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +const US_IDS = Array.from({ length: 10 }, (_, i) => `us-${i + 1}`); +const INTL_IDS = Array.from({ length: 10 }, (_, i) => `intl-${i + 1}`); +const ALL_IDS = [...US_IDS, ...INTL_IDS]; + +/** + * Build EV rows with descending odds favouring the first team per side. + * ids[0] is the strongest (best odds → lowest American number for favorites). + */ +function makeEvRows(ids: string[], opts: { includeOdds?: boolean } = {}) { + return ids.map((participantId, i) => ({ + participantId, + sourceOdds: opts.includeOdds ? (i === 0 ? -300 : 200 + i * 100) : null, + })); +} + +// ─── Tests ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +describe("LLWSSimulator", () => { + let mockDb: { select: MockInstance }; + let selectCallCount: number; + + beforeEach(async () => { + selectCallCount = 0; + const { database } = await import("~/database/context"); + mockDb = { select: vi.fn() }; + (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb); + }); + + function setupMockDb( + participants: { id: string; externalId: string }[], + evRows: { participantId: string; sourceOdds: number | null }[] + ) { + mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => { + const callIndex = selectCallCount++; + const data = callIndex === 0 ? participants : evRows; + return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) }; + }); + } + + function defaultParticipants(mode: "randomized" | "fixed" = "randomized") { + if (mode === "fixed") { + const usA = US_IDS.slice(0, 5).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US:A" })); + const usB = US_IDS.slice(5).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US:B" })); + const intlA = INTL_IDS.slice(0, 5).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "Intl:A" })); + const intlB = INTL_IDS.slice(5).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "Intl:B" })); + return [...usA, ...usB, ...intlA, ...intlB]; + } + return [ + ...US_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US" })), + ...INTL_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "Intl" })), + ]; + } + + // ── Core output structure ───────────────────────────────────────────────── + + describe("output structure", () => { + it("returns one result per participant (20 total)", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + expect(results).toHaveLength(20); + }); + + it("every result has source 'llws_monte_carlo'", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + for (const r of results) { + expect(r.source).toBe("llws_monte_carlo"); + } + }); + + it("all probability values are between 0 and 1", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + for (const r of results) { + const p = r.probabilities; + for (const v of Object.values(p)) { + expect(v).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); + expect(v).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1); + } + } + }); + }); + + // ── Probability conservation ────────────────────────────────────────────── + + describe("probability conservation (one winner per sim)", () => { + it("probFirst sums to ~1.0 across all participants", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("probSecond sums to ~1.0 across all participants", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probSecond, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("probThird sums to ~1.0 across all participants", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probThird, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("probFourth sums to ~1.0 across all participants", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFourth, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("sum of probFifth across participants equals ~1.0 (4 bracket losers, split evenly)", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + // 4 bracket losers per sim, each assigned bracketLoser/(4*N) → sum = 1.0 + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFifth, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for every participant (even bracket-loser split)", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + for (const r of results) { + const p = r.probabilities; + expect(p.probFifth).toBeCloseTo(p.probSixth, 10); + expect(p.probSixth).toBeCloseTo(p.probSeventh, 10); + expect(p.probSeventh).toBeCloseTo(p.probEighth, 10); + } + }); + }); + + // ── Odds-driven probability ─────────────────────────────────────────────── + + describe("odds-driven win probability", () => { + it("strong favourite (us-1) has higher probFirst than a weak team", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS, { includeOdds: true })); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r])); + const us1prob = byId.get("us-1")?.probabilities.probFirst ?? 0; + const us10prob = byId.get("us-10")?.probabilities.probFirst ?? 0; + expect(us1prob).toBeGreaterThan(us10prob); + }); + + it("works when no odds are entered (all 50/50 fallback)", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); // no odds + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("with equal odds, each team wins the championship roughly equally", async () => { + // Equal positive odds (+5000 for every team) → vig-removed prob ≈ 1/20 each. + const eqOddsRows = ALL_IDS.map((id) => ({ participantId: id, sourceOdds: 5000 })); + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), eqOddsRows); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + for (const r of results) { + // With equal odds and random pools, each team should win ~5% of the time. + // Allow a generous band given Monte Carlo variance. + expect(r.probabilities.probFirst).toBeGreaterThan(0.01); + expect(r.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.15); + } + }); + }); + + // ── Pool assignment modes ───────────────────────────────────────────────── + + describe("pool assignment modes", () => { + it("fixed pools (US:A / US:B / Intl:A / Intl:B) produce valid results", async () => { + setupMockDb(defaultParticipants("fixed"), makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + expect(results).toHaveLength(20); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("mixed mode: US fixed pools, Intl randomized", async () => { + const participants = [ + ...US_IDS.slice(0, 5).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US:A" })), + ...US_IDS.slice(5).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US:B" })), + ...INTL_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "Intl" })), + ]; + setupMockDb(participants, makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + const results = await new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + expect(results).toHaveLength(20); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + }); + + // ── Error cases ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + + describe("error cases", () => { + it("throws when participant count is not 20", async () => { + const nineteen = [...US_IDS, ...INTL_IDS.slice(0, 9)]; + const participants = nineteen.map((id, i) => ({ + id, + externalId: i < 10 ? "US" : "Intl", + })); + setupMockDb(participants, makeEvRows(nineteen)); + await expect(new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/exactly 20/); + }); + + it("throws when a participant has a missing externalId", async () => { + const participants = [ + ...US_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US" })), + ...INTL_IDS.slice(0, 9).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "Intl" })), + { id: "intl-10", externalId: null as unknown as string }, // missing + ]; + setupMockDb(participants, makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + await expect(new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/invalid or missing externalId/); + }); + + it("throws when a participant has an unrecognized externalId", async () => { + const participants = [ + ...US_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US" })), + ...INTL_IDS.slice(0, 9).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "Intl" })), + { id: "intl-10", externalId: "CANADA" }, // unrecognized + ]; + setupMockDb(participants, makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + await expect(new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/invalid or missing externalId/); + }); + + it("throws when US team count is not 10", async () => { + // 11 US teams, 9 International + const participants = [ + ...Array.from({ length: 11 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `us-${i + 1}`, externalId: "US" })), + ...Array.from({ length: 9 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `intl-${i + 1}`, externalId: "Intl" })), + ]; + setupMockDb(participants, makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + await expect(new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/10 US teams/); + }); + + it("throws when fixed pools have unequal A/B split", async () => { + const participants = [ + // 6 in Pool A, 4 in Pool B + ...US_IDS.slice(0, 6).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US:A" })), + ...US_IDS.slice(6).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US:B" })), + ...INTL_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "Intl" })), + ]; + setupMockDb(participants, makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + await expect(new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/exactly 5 teams each/); + }); + + it("throws when US externalIds mix pool suffixes and bare side", async () => { + const participants = [ + // Some US:A, some "US" (no pool suffix) → mixed + ...US_IDS.slice(0, 5).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US:A" })), + ...US_IDS.slice(5).map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "US" })), // no pool + ...INTL_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, externalId: "Intl" })), + ]; + setupMockDb(participants, makeEvRows(ALL_IDS)); + await expect(new LLWSSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/mixed externalId formats/); + }); + }); +}); diff --git a/app/services/simulations/llws-simulator.ts b/app/services/simulations/llws-simulator.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..212f811 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/services/simulations/llws-simulator.ts @@ -0,0 +1,389 @@ +/** + * Little League World Series (LLWS) Bracket Simulator + * + * Monte Carlo simulation of the LLWS (20-team format, 2022–present). + * + * Algorithm: + * 1. Load all 20 participants for the sports season from DB + * (must be exactly 10 US + 10 International, identified by externalId) + * 2. Load championship futures odds from participantExpectedValues.sourceOdds + * (entered via Admin → Futures Odds; American format) + * 3. Convert odds to normalized championship probabilities (vig removed). + * These drive per-game win probability: p1 / (p1 + p2). Falls back to 50/50. + * 4. Determine pool assignment mode from externalId: + * - Fixed pools: externalId is "US:A", "US:B", "Intl:A", or "Intl:B" + * → use these exact pool assignments every simulation. + * - Randomized pools: externalId is "US" or "Intl" only + * → randomly shuffle each side into Pool A / Pool B each simulation. + * 5. Per simulation: + * a. Assign pools (fixed or random) + * b. Simulate pool play round-robin within each pool (10 games/pool) + * Top 2 by W-L record advance. Ties broken randomly. + * c. Simulate 4-team double-elimination bracket per side: + * G1: A1 vs B2 (WB) + * G2: B1 vs A2 (WB) + * G3: G1W vs G2W (WB Final) + * G4: G1L vs G2L (LB R1 — loser eliminated) + * G5: G3L vs G4W (LB Final — loser eliminated) + * G6: G3W vs G5W (Side Championship — loser eliminated) + * d. Consolation game: US loser vs Intl loser → 3rd / 4th + * e. World Series: US champion vs Intl champion → 1st / 2nd + * 6. Track placement counts across all simulations. + * 7. Convert counts to probability distributions. + * + * Pool assignment (externalId format): + * "US:A" / "US:B" / "Intl:A" / "Intl:B" → fixed pools (post-draw mode) + * "US" / "Intl" → randomized pools (pre-draw mode) + * Mixed: if ANY US or Intl team has a pool suffix, ALL teams on that side must + * have one (throws otherwise). Sides can differ — US fixed while Intl randomized. + * + * Placement tiers → SimulationProbabilities mapping: + * probFirst = World Series Champion (1 per sim) + * probSecond = World Series Runner-up (1 per sim) + * probThird = Consolation game winner / 3rd place (1 per sim) + * probFourth = Consolation game loser / 4th place (1 per sim) + * probFifth–probEighth = Double-elim bracket losers before side championships + * (4 per sim — split evenly: 2 US + 2 Intl) + * Pool play losers → all 0 (12 teams, did not advance from pool play) + * + * Admin setup: + * 1. Create a Sport with simulatorType = "llws_bracket" + * 2. Create a Sports Season and add exactly 20 participants (10 US, 10 International) + * 3. Set externalId on each participant: + * Pre-draw: "US" or "Intl" + * Post-draw: "US:A", "US:B", "Intl:A", or "Intl:B" + * 4. Enter championship futures odds via Admin → Futures Odds (sourceOdds) + * 5. Run simulation via Admin → Simulate + */ + +import { database } from "~/database/context"; +import { eq } from "drizzle-orm"; +import * as schema from "~/database/schema"; +import { convertAmericanOddsToProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine"; +import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types"; + +// ─── Simulation parameters ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000; +const US_TEAM_COUNT = 10; +const INTL_TEAM_COUNT = 10; +const POOL_SIZE = 5; // teams per pool within each side + +// ─── Types ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +type Side = "US" | "Intl"; + +interface Team { + participantId: string; + side: Side; + /** Explicit pool ("A" or "B") if set in externalId; null if randomized. */ + fixedPool: "A" | "B" | null; + /** Normalized championship win probability (0–1, vig removed). */ + oddsProb: number; +} + +interface PlacementCounts { + champion: number; + finalist: number; + thirdPlace: number; + fourthPlace: number; + bracketLoser: number; +} + +// ─── Helpers ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +function simGame(t1: Team, t2: Team): { winner: Team; loser: Team } { + // If either team has no odds entered, treat the game as a coin flip. + // The 50/50 fallback must cover the one-sided case (one team known, one not) + // because oddsProb=0 would otherwise give the unknown team a 0% win rate. + let p1Win: number; + if (t1.oddsProb === 0 || t2.oddsProb === 0) { + p1Win = 0.5; + } else { + p1Win = t1.oddsProb / (t1.oddsProb + t2.oddsProb); + } + return Math.random() < p1Win ? { winner: t1, loser: t2 } : { winner: t2, loser: t1 }; +} + +/** + * Fisher-Yates shuffle (in-place). + */ +function shuffle(arr: T[]): T[] { + for (let i = arr.length - 1; i > 0; i--) { + const j = Math.floor(Math.random() * (i + 1)); + [arr[i], arr[j]] = [arr[j], arr[i]]; + } + return arr; +} + +/** + * Assign teams to Pool A / Pool B for one side. + * In fixed mode, respects the pre-set pool. In randomized mode, shuffles then splits. + */ +function assignPools(teams: Team[], randomized: boolean): [Team[], Team[]] { + if (!randomized) { + return [teams.filter((t) => t.fixedPool === "A"), teams.filter((t) => t.fixedPool === "B")]; + } + const shuffled = shuffle([...teams]); + return [shuffled.slice(0, 5), shuffled.slice(5)]; +} + +/** + * Simulate round-robin pool play among 5 teams. + * Returns the top 2 teams by win count (ties broken randomly). + */ +function simulatePoolPlay(pool: Team[]): [Team, Team] { + const wins = new Map(pool.map((t) => [t.participantId, 0])); + + // Each pair plays once. + for (let i = 0; i < pool.length; i++) { + for (let j = i + 1; j < pool.length; j++) { + const { winner } = simGame(pool[i], pool[j]); + wins.set(winner.participantId, (wins.get(winner.participantId) ?? 0) + 1); + } + } + + // Sort by wins descending; pre-generate a stable random tiebreaker per team so + // the comparator is consistent (Math.random() inside a comparator is a bug — the + // engine may call it multiple times per pair and get contradictory results). + const tiebreaker = new Map(pool.map((t) => [t.participantId, Math.random()])); + const ranked = pool.toSorted((a, b) => { + const diff = (wins.get(b.participantId) ?? 0) - (wins.get(a.participantId) ?? 0); + return diff !== 0 ? diff : (tiebreaker.get(a.participantId) ?? 0) - (tiebreaker.get(b.participantId) ?? 0); + }); + + return [ranked[0], ranked[1]]; +} + +/** + * Simulate a 4-team double-elimination bracket for one side. + * + * Seeds (pool results): + * poolA1 = Pool A winner, poolA2 = Pool A runner-up + * poolB1 = Pool B winner, poolB2 = Pool B runner-up + * + * Bracket: + * G1 (WB): A1 vs B2 + * G2 (WB): B1 vs A2 + * G3 (WB Final): G1W vs G2W + * G4 (LB R1): G1L vs G2L → loser eliminated (bracketLoser) + * G5 (LB Final): G3L vs G4W → loser eliminated (bracketLoser) + * G6 (Side Championship): G3W vs G5W → loser eliminated (sideLoser) + * + * Returns: { sideChampion, sideLoser } + * bracketLosers (2) are bumped into counts directly. + */ +function simulateSideBracket( + poolA1: Team, + poolA2: Team, + poolB1: Team, + poolB2: Team, + bump: (id: string, key: keyof PlacementCounts) => void +): { sideChampion: Team; sideLoser: Team } { + + // Winners bracket + const g1 = simGame(poolA1, poolB2); + const g2 = simGame(poolB1, poolA2); + const g3 = simGame(g1.winner, g2.winner); // WB Final + + // Losers bracket + const g4 = simGame(g1.loser, g2.loser); // LB R1 — g4.loser eliminated + bump(g4.loser.participantId, "bracketLoser"); + + const g5 = simGame(g3.loser, g4.winner); // LB Final — g5.loser eliminated + bump(g5.loser.participantId, "bracketLoser"); + + // Side championship + const g6 = simGame(g3.winner, g5.winner); + + return { sideChampion: g6.winner, sideLoser: g6.loser }; +} + +// ─── Validation helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +type PoolSuffix = "A" | "B" | null; + +function parseExternalId(raw: string | null): { side: Side; pool: PoolSuffix } | null { + if (!raw) return null; + const upper = raw.toUpperCase(); + if (upper === "US") return { side: "US", pool: null }; + if (upper === "INTL") return { side: "Intl", pool: null }; + if (upper === "US:A") return { side: "US", pool: "A" }; + if (upper === "US:B") return { side: "US", pool: "B" }; + if (upper === "INTL:A") return { side: "Intl", pool: "A" }; + if (upper === "INTL:B") return { side: "Intl", pool: "B" }; + return null; +} + +/** + * Determine whether pool assignments should be randomized for one side. + * - If ALL teams on the side have a pool suffix → fixed pools (returns false). + * - If NO teams have a pool suffix → randomized (returns true). + * - Mixed → throws. + * Also validates that fixed pools are split exactly POOL_SIZE / POOL_SIZE. + */ +function determineRandomized(sideTeams: Team[], sideName: string): boolean { + const withPool = sideTeams.filter((t) => t.fixedPool !== null); + const withoutPool = sideTeams.filter((t) => t.fixedPool === null); + if (withPool.length > 0 && withoutPool.length > 0) { + throw new Error( + `${sideName} teams have mixed externalId formats: some have pool suffixes (e.g. "US:A") ` + + `and some don't. Either all ${sideName} teams must have pool suffixes or none should.` + ); + } + if (withPool.length === sideTeams.length) { + const poolA = sideTeams.filter((t) => t.fixedPool === "A"); + const poolB = sideTeams.filter((t) => t.fixedPool === "B"); + if (poolA.length !== POOL_SIZE || poolB.length !== POOL_SIZE) { + throw new Error( + `${sideName} fixed pools must have exactly ${POOL_SIZE} teams each. ` + + `Found Pool A: ${poolA.length}, Pool B: ${poolB.length}.` + ); + } + return false; // fixed pools + } + return true; // randomized +} + +// ─── Simulator ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +export class LLWSSimulator implements Simulator { + async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise { + const db = database(); + + // 1. Load all participants. + const participants = await db + .select({ id: schema.participants.id, externalId: schema.participants.externalId }) + .from(schema.participants) + .where(eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId)); + + if (participants.length !== US_TEAM_COUNT + INTL_TEAM_COUNT) { + throw new Error( + `LLWS simulator requires exactly ${US_TEAM_COUNT + INTL_TEAM_COUNT} participants, ` + + `found ${participants.length}.` + ); + } + + // 2. Load championship futures odds. + const evRows = await db + .select({ + participantId: schema.participantExpectedValues.participantId, + sourceOdds: schema.participantExpectedValues.sourceOdds, + }) + .from(schema.participantExpectedValues) + .where(eq(schema.participantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId)); + + const rawOddsMap = new Map(); + for (const row of evRows) { + if (row.sourceOdds !== null) { + rawOddsMap.set(row.participantId, convertAmericanOddsToProbability(row.sourceOdds)); + } + } + + // 3. Normalize odds (remove vig) to get championship probability per team. + const normalizedOddsMap = new Map(); + if (rawOddsMap.size > 0) { + const rawSum = [...rawOddsMap.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0); + for (const [id, prob] of rawOddsMap) { + normalizedOddsMap.set(id, rawSum > 0 ? prob / rawSum : 0); + } + } + + // 4. Parse externalId for each participant to determine side and fixed pool. + const teams: Team[] = []; + for (const p of participants) { + const parsed = parseExternalId(p.externalId); + if (!parsed) { + throw new Error( + `Participant ${p.id} has invalid or missing externalId "${p.externalId}". ` + + `Expected: "US", "Intl", "US:A", "US:B", "Intl:A", or "Intl:B".` + ); + } + teams.push({ + participantId: p.id, + side: parsed.side, + fixedPool: parsed.pool, + oddsProb: normalizedOddsMap.get(p.id) ?? 0, + }); + } + + // Validate team counts per side. + const usTeams = teams.filter((t) => t.side === "US"); + const intlTeams = teams.filter((t) => t.side === "Intl"); + + if (usTeams.length !== US_TEAM_COUNT) { + throw new Error(`Expected ${US_TEAM_COUNT} US teams, found ${usTeams.length}.`); + } + if (intlTeams.length !== INTL_TEAM_COUNT) { + throw new Error(`Expected ${INTL_TEAM_COUNT} International teams, found ${intlTeams.length}.`); + } + + // Determine pool assignment mode for each side. + const usRandomized = determineRandomized(usTeams, "US"); + const intlRandomized = determineRandomized(intlTeams, "International"); + + // 5. Initialise placement count accumulators for all participants. + const allIds = participants.map((p) => p.id); + const counts = new Map( + allIds.map((id) => [id, { champion: 0, finalist: 0, thirdPlace: 0, fourthPlace: 0, bracketLoser: 0 }]) + ); + const bump = (id: string, key: keyof PlacementCounts) => { + const entry = counts.get(id); + if (entry) entry[key]++; + }; + + // 6. Run Monte Carlo simulations. + for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) { + // Assign pools for this simulation. + const [usPoolA, usPoolB] = assignPools(usTeams, usRandomized); + const [intlPoolA, intlPoolB] = assignPools(intlTeams, intlRandomized); + + // Pool play: top 2 from each pool advance. + const [usA1, usA2] = simulatePoolPlay(usPoolA); + const [usB1, usB2] = simulatePoolPlay(usPoolB); + const [intlA1, intlA2] = simulatePoolPlay(intlPoolA); + const [intlB1, intlB2] = simulatePoolPlay(intlPoolB); + + // Double-elimination bracket per side. + const { sideChampion: usChamp, sideLoser: usLose } = + simulateSideBracket(usA1, usA2, usB1, usB2, bump); + const { sideChampion: intlChamp, sideLoser: intlLose } = + simulateSideBracket(intlA1, intlA2, intlB1, intlB2, bump); + + // Consolation game: 3rd / 4th place. + const consolation = simGame(usLose, intlLose); + bump(consolation.winner.participantId, "thirdPlace"); + bump(consolation.loser.participantId, "fourthPlace"); + + // World Series: 1st / 2nd place. + const ws = simGame(usChamp, intlChamp); + bump(ws.winner.participantId, "champion"); + bump(ws.loser.participantId, "finalist"); + } + + // 7. Convert counts to probability distributions. + // bracketLosers: 4 per sim (2 US + 2 Intl) → split evenly. + const bracketLosersPerSim = 4; + const bracketDivisor = bracketLosersPerSim * NUM_SIMULATIONS; + + const zeroCounts: PlacementCounts = { champion: 0, finalist: 0, thirdPlace: 0, fourthPlace: 0, bracketLoser: 0 }; + return allIds.map((id) => { + const c = counts.get(id) ?? zeroCounts; + const bracketProb = c.bracketLoser / bracketDivisor; + return { + participantId: id, + probabilities: { + probFirst: c.champion / NUM_SIMULATIONS, + probSecond: c.finalist / NUM_SIMULATIONS, + probThird: c.thirdPlace / NUM_SIMULATIONS, + probFourth: c.fourthPlace / NUM_SIMULATIONS, + probFifth: bracketProb, + probSixth: bracketProb, + probSeventh: bracketProb, + probEighth: bracketProb, + }, + source: "llws_monte_carlo", + }; + }); + } +} diff --git a/app/services/simulations/registry.ts b/app/services/simulations/registry.ts index 3cb3818..fd8fd77 100644 --- a/app/services/simulations/registry.ts +++ b/app/services/simulations/registry.ts @@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ import { NFLSimulator } from "./nfl-simulator"; import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator"; import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator"; import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "./ncaa-football-simulator"; +import { LLWSSimulator } from "./llws-simulator"; export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [ "f1_standings", @@ -46,6 +47,7 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [ "darts_bracket", "cs2_major_qualifying_points", "ncaa_football_bracket", + "llws_bracket", ] as const; export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number]; @@ -149,6 +151,13 @@ const REGISTRY: Record Simul info: { name: "NCAA Football CFP Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket using Elo/FPI ratings entered via Admin → Elo Ratings. Optionally blends with championship futures odds (60% Elo / 40% odds). Seeds 1–4 receive first-round byes; First Round losers score 0 points." }, create: () => new NCAAFootballSimulator(), }, + llws_bracket: { + info: { + name: "LLWS Bracket Monte Carlo", + description: "Simulates the 20-team Little League World Series: pool play round-robin (5 teams/pool, top 2 advance) → 4-team double-elimination bracket per side (US & International) → consolation game (3rd/4th) → World Series. Uses championship futures odds for all win probabilities. Set externalId to 'US'/'Intl' (randomized pools) or 'US:A'/'US:B'/'Intl:A'/'Intl:B' (fixed pools).", + }, + create: () => new LLWSSimulator(), + }, }; export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator { diff --git a/database/schema.ts b/database/schema.ts index 3b42f3d..0ef0ccd 100644 --- a/database/schema.ts +++ b/database/schema.ts @@ -102,6 +102,7 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [ "darts_bracket", "cs2_major_qualifying_points", "ncaa_football_bracket", + "llws_bracket", ]); export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [ diff --git a/drizzle/0073_blushing_lady_vermin.sql b/drizzle/0073_blushing_lady_vermin.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1153020 --- /dev/null +++ b/drizzle/0073_blushing_lady_vermin.sql @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'llws_bracket'; \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/drizzle/meta/0073_snapshot.json b/drizzle/meta/0073_snapshot.json new file 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