Clarify simulator blend weights and remove EV card from season detail

Show the futures blend as two synced weights that total 100% (Base Elo /
Projections % and Futures %) on the simulator setup page, driven by the
single stored oddsWeight. Update the /admin/simulators badge to show the
full split (e.g. "70% Elo / 30% Futures") instead of just "30% blend".

Remove the redundant "Expected Values" card from admin/sports-seasons/<id>:
its setup links and Run Simulation action already live on the Simulator
page. Drop the now-unused loader query, simulate action, and imports.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017RvJnQPEJNRxGipSad7q2T

app/routes/__tests__/admin.simulators.test.ts

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ vi.mock("~/services/simulations/runner", () => ({
   runSportsSeasonSimulation: vi.fn(),
 }));
 
-import { action, loader } from "../admin.simulators";
+import { action, futuresBlendLabel, loader } from "../admin.simulators";
 import { listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries } from "~/models/simulator";
 import { runSportsSeasonSimulation } from "~/services/simulations/runner";
 
@@ -102,6 +102,18 @@ describe("admin simulators loader", () => {
   });
 });
 
+describe("futuresBlendLabel", () => {
+  it("shows the full Elo/Futures split for an in-between weight", () => {
+    expect(futuresBlendLabel(0.3)).toBe("70% Elo / 30% Futures");
+    expect(futuresBlendLabel(0.5)).toBe("50% Elo / 50% Futures");
+  });
+
+  it("labels the extremes without percentages", () => {
+    expect(futuresBlendLabel(0)).toBe("Elo only");
+    expect(futuresBlendLabel(1)).toBe("overrides Elo");
+  });
+});
+
 describe("admin simulators action", () => {
   it("runs one simulator", async () => {
     vi.mocked(runSportsSeasonSimulation).mockResolvedValue({

app/routes/admin.simulators.tsx

@@ -77,10 +77,11 @@ export async function action({ request }: Route.ActionArgs): Promise<ActionData>
   };
 }
 
-function futuresBlendLabel(oddsWeight: number): string {
+export function futuresBlendLabel(oddsWeight: number): string {
   if (oddsWeight >= 1) return "overrides Elo";
   if (oddsWeight <= 0) return "Elo only";
-  return `${Math.round(oddsWeight * 100)}% blend`;
+  const futuresPct = Math.round(oddsWeight * 100);
+  return `${100 - futuresPct}% Elo / ${futuresPct}% Futures`;
 }
 
 function statusBadge(status: string) {

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.tsx

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+import { useState } from "react";
 import { Form, Link, redirect, useActionData, useNavigation } from "react-router";
 import type { Route } from "./+types/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator";
 
@@ -261,6 +262,18 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
   const showsInputPolicy =
     config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo") || config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("rating");
 
+  // Two synced blend weights that always total 100%. `oddsWeight` (0–1) stays
+  // the single stored source of truth; we present it (and its complement) as
+  // percentages here. Editing either field updates the other.
+  const [futuresPct, setFuturesPct] = useState(() =>
+    Math.round(Math.min(1, Math.max(0, inputPolicy.oddsWeight)) * 100)
+  );
+  const basePct = 100 - futuresPct;
+  function clampPct(value: number): number {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(value)) return 0;
+    return Math.min(100, Math.max(0, Math.round(value)));
+  }
+
   return (
     <div className="container mx-auto p-6 space-y-6">
       <div className="flex items-center gap-4">
@@ -367,14 +380,42 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
           <CardContent>
             <Form method="post" className="grid gap-4 md:grid-cols-5">
               <input type="hidden" name="intent" value="save-input-policy" />
+              {/* oddsWeight (0–1) is the stored value; the two percentage fields below drive it. */}
+              <input type="hidden" name="oddsWeight" value={futuresPct / 100} />
               <div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-5">
-                <Label htmlFor="oddsWeight">Futures vs. Elo — Odds Blend Weight (0–1)</Label>
+                <Label>Blend Weights — Base Elo vs. Futures (must total 100%)</Label>
-                <Input id="oddsWeight" name="oddsWeight" type="number" step="0.05" min="0" max="1" defaultValue={inputPolicy.oddsWeight} />
+                <div className="grid gap-3 sm:grid-cols-2">
+                  <div className="space-y-1">
+                    <Label htmlFor="baseEloPct" className="text-xs font-normal text-muted-foreground">Base Elo / Projections weight (%)</Label>
+                    <Input
+                      id="baseEloPct"
+                      type="number"
+                      step={5}
+                      min={0}
+                      max={100}
+                      value={basePct}
+                      onChange={(e) => setFuturesPct(100 - clampPct(e.target.valueAsNumber))}
+                    />
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="space-y-1">
+                    <Label htmlFor="futuresPct" className="text-xs font-normal text-muted-foreground">Futures Odds weight (%)</Label>
+                    <Input
+                      id="futuresPct"
+                      type="number"
+                      step={5}
+                      min={0}
+                      max={100}
+                      value={futuresPct}
+                      onChange={(e) => setFuturesPct(clampPct(e.target.valueAsNumber))}
+                    />
+                  </div>
+                </div>
                 <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">
                   Every source (raw Elo, projections, futures odds) becomes an Elo, then they blend into
-                  the single Elo that feeds the simulator. This is the weight given to futures odds:
+                  the single Elo that feeds the simulator. The two weights always total 100% (editing one
-                  <strong> 0</strong> = Elo / projections only, <strong>1</strong> = futures fully override,
+                  updates the other): <strong>0% futures</strong> = Elo / projections only,
-                  in between = blend (e.g. 0.3 = 70% Elo / 30% futures).
+                  <strong> 100% futures</strong> = futures fully override, in between = blend
+                  (e.g. 70% Elo / 30% futures).
                 </p>
               </div>
               {config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo") && (

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.tsx

@@ -8,10 +8,8 @@ import { findSportsSeasonById, updateSportsSeason, deleteSportsSeason, type NewS
 import { processSeasonStandings, recalculateStandings } from "~/models/scoring-calculator";
 import { createDailySnapshot } from "~/models/standings";
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
-import { participantEvSnapshots, seasonSports } from "~/database/schema";
+import { seasonSports } from "~/database/schema";
-import { eq, desc } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
-import { getSimulatorInfo, type SimulatorType } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
-import { runSportsSeasonSimulation } from "~/services/simulations/runner";
 import { syncStandings } from "~/services/standings-sync/index";
 import {
   getPendingStandingsMappings,
@@ -48,7 +46,7 @@ import {
 } from "~/components/ui/alert-dialog";
 import { Badge } from "~/components/ui/badge";
 import { Select, SelectContent, SelectGroup, SelectItem, SelectLabel, SelectTrigger, SelectValue } from "~/components/ui/select";
-import { Trash2, Users, Trophy, Calculator, CheckCircle2, Zap, AlertTriangle, Loader2, RefreshCw, Copy } from "lucide-react";
+import { Trash2, Users, Trophy, CheckCircle2, AlertTriangle, Loader2, RefreshCw, Copy } from "lucide-react";
 import { useState } from "react";
 
 const SELECT_CLASS = "h-10 w-full rounded-md border border-input bg-background px-3 py-2 text-sm";
@@ -121,21 +119,6 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
 
   const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(params.id);
 
-  // Get the most recent snapshot date (if any)
-  const db = database();
-  const lastSnapshot = await db
-    .select({ snapshotDate: participantEvSnapshots.snapshotDate })
-    .from(participantEvSnapshots)
-    .where(eq(participantEvSnapshots.sportsSeasonId, params.id))
-    .orderBy(desc(participantEvSnapshots.snapshotDate))
-    .limit(1);
-
-  const lastSimulatedDate = lastSnapshot[0]?.snapshotDate ?? null;
-
-  const simulatorInfo = sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType
-    ? getSimulatorInfo(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType)
-    : null;
-
   const lastStandingsSyncedAt =
     sportsSeason.sport?.type === "team"
       ? await getLastSyncedAt(params.id)
@@ -148,8 +131,6 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
   return {
     sportsSeason,
     participants,
-    lastSimulatedDate,
-    simulatorInfo,
     lastStandingsSyncedAt: lastStandingsSyncedAt?.toISOString() ?? null,
     pendingMappings,
   };
@@ -293,17 +274,6 @@ export async function action(args: Route.ActionArgs) {
     }
   }
 
-  if (intent === "simulate") {
-    try {
-      await runSportsSeasonSimulation(params.id);
-      return redirect(`/admin/sports-seasons/${params.id}/expected-values`);
-    } catch (error) {
-      return {
-        simulateError: error instanceof Error ? error.message : "Simulation failed",
-      };
-    }
-  }
-
   // Update
   const name = formData.get("name");
   const year = formData.get("year");
@@ -393,7 +363,7 @@ export async function action(args: Route.ActionArgs) {
 }
 
 export default function EditSportsSeason({ loaderData, actionData }: Route.ComponentProps) {
-  const { sportsSeason, participants, lastSimulatedDate, simulatorInfo, lastStandingsSyncedAt, pendingMappings } = loaderData;
+  const { sportsSeason, participants, lastStandingsSyncedAt, pendingMappings } = loaderData;
   const navigate = useNavigate();
   const navigation = useNavigation();
   const isSyncingStandings =
@@ -649,111 +619,6 @@ export default function EditSportsSeason({ loaderData, actionData }: Route.Compo
             </CardContent>
           </Card>
 
-          <Card>
-            <CardHeader>
-              <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
-                <div>
-                  <CardTitle>Expected Values</CardTitle>
-                  <CardDescription>
-                    {simulatorInfo
-                      ? simulatorInfo.name
-                      : "Manage probability distributions and projected points"}
-                  </CardDescription>
-                </div>
-                <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
-                  {sportsSeason.simulationStatus === "failed" && (
-                    <Badge variant="outline" className="bg-destructive/15 text-destructive border-destructive/30">
-                      <AlertTriangle className="mr-1 h-3 w-3" />
-                      Last run failed
-                    </Badge>
-                  )}
-                  <Button
-                    size="sm"
-                    variant="outline"
-                    onClick={() => navigate(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/simulator`)}
-                  >
-                    <Calculator className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
-                    Simulator Setup
-                  </Button>
-                  <Button
-                    size="sm"
-                    variant="outline"
-                    onClick={() => navigate(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/futures-odds`)}
-                  >
-                    <Calculator className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
-                    Futures Odds
-                  </Button>
-                  <Button
-                    size="sm"
-                    variant="outline"
-                    onClick={() => navigate(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/elo-ratings`)}
-                  >
-                    <Calculator className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
-                    Elo Ratings
-                  </Button>
-                  {sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType === "tennis_qualifying_points" && (
-                    <Button
-                      size="sm"
-                      variant="outline"
-                      onClick={() => navigate(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/surface-elo`)}
-                    >
-                      <Calculator className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
-                      Surface Elo
-                    </Button>
-                  )}
-                  {sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType === "golf_qualifying_points" && (
-                    <Button
-                      size="sm"
-                      variant="outline"
-                      onClick={() => navigate(`/admin/sports-seasons/${sportsSeason.id}/golf-skills`)}
-                    >
-                      <Calculator className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
-                      Golf Skills
-                    </Button>
-                  )}
-                  {simulatorInfo && (
-                    <Form method="post">
-                      <input type="hidden" name="intent" value="simulate" />
-                      <Button
-                        type="submit"
-                        size="sm"
-                        disabled={sportsSeason.simulationStatus === "running"}
-                      >
-                        {sportsSeason.simulationStatus === "running" ? (
-                          <>
-                            <Loader2 className="mr-2 h-4 w-4 animate-spin" />
-                            Running...
-                          </>
-                        ) : (
-                          <>
-                            <Zap className="mr-2 h-4 w-4" />
-                            Run Simulation
-                          </>
-                        )}
-                      </Button>
-                    </Form>
-                  )}
-                </div>
-              </div>
-            </CardHeader>
-            <CardContent>
-              <p className="text-sm text-muted-foreground">
-                {simulatorInfo
-                  ? <>
-                      {simulatorInfo.description}.{" "}
-                      {lastSimulatedDate ? `Last simulated: ${lastSimulatedDate}.` : "No simulation has been run yet."}
-                      {" "}Import futures odds first, then run the simulation to update EVs and save a snapshot.
-                    </>
-                  : "Import futures odds to set probability distributions."}
-              </p>
-              {"simulateError" in (actionData ?? {}) && actionData?.simulateError && (
-                <div className="mt-3 bg-destructive/15 text-destructive px-4 py-3 rounded-md text-sm">
-                  {actionData.simulateError}
-                </div>
-              )}
-            </CardContent>
-          </Card>
-
           <Card>
             <CardHeader>
               <div className="flex items-center justify-between">