From 4d5fea05aba7abd4eb0c3554acc67e1a2966444d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Chris Parsons <438676+chrisparsons83@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 8 Apr 2026 09:48:32 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Fixes #124 * Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds). - Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score) - Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9 in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes - Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers - Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum - Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket' - Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 * Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const, use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 * Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 --- app/lib/bracket-templates.ts | 41 + app/models/__tests__/cfp-12-bracket.test.ts | 93 + app/models/playoff-match.ts | 99 + .../__tests__/ncaa-football-simulator.test.ts | 227 + .../simulations/ncaa-football-simulator.ts | 350 ++ app/services/simulations/registry.ts | 6 + database/schema.ts | 1 + drizzle/0072_jittery_steve_rogers.sql | 1 + drizzle/meta/0072_snapshot.json | 4472 +++++++++++++++++ drizzle/meta/_journal.json | 7 + 10 files changed, 5297 insertions(+) create mode 100644 app/models/__tests__/cfp-12-bracket.test.ts create mode 100644 app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaa-football-simulator.test.ts create mode 100644 app/services/simulations/ncaa-football-simulator.ts create mode 100644 drizzle/0072_jittery_steve_rogers.sql create mode 100644 drizzle/meta/0072_snapshot.json diff --git a/app/lib/bracket-templates.ts b/app/lib/bracket-templates.ts index e0a6f53..35d1d6b 100644 --- a/app/lib/bracket-templates.ts +++ b/app/lib/bracket-templates.ts @@ -633,6 +633,46 @@ export const FIFA_48: BracketTemplate = { ], }; +/** + * College Football Playoff (12 teams, 2024–present format) + * First Round: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9 (campus sites, no fantasy points) + * Quarterfinals: Seeds 1–4 (bye) vs first-round winners (scoring starts here) + * Semifinals: 4 → 2 + * National Championship: 1 game + */ +export const CFP_12: BracketTemplate = { + id: "cfp_12", + name: "College Football Playoff (12 teams)", + totalTeams: 12, + scoringStartsAtRound: "Quarterfinals", + rounds: [ + { + name: "First Round", + matchCount: 4, + feedsInto: "Quarterfinals", + isScoring: false, // 8 seeds play, top 4 have byes + }, + { + name: "Quarterfinals", + matchCount: 4, + feedsInto: "Semifinals", + isScoring: true, // Losers share 5th–8th + }, + { + name: "Semifinals", + matchCount: 2, + feedsInto: "National Championship", + isScoring: true, // Losers share 3rd–4th + }, + { + name: "National Championship", + matchCount: 1, + feedsInto: null, + isScoring: true, // Winner 1st, loser 2nd + }, + ], +}; + /** * All available bracket templates */ @@ -646,6 +686,7 @@ export const BRACKET_TEMPLATES: Record = { afl_10: AFL_10, fifa_48: FIFA_48, darts_128: DARTS_128, + cfp_12: CFP_12, }; /** diff --git a/app/models/__tests__/cfp-12-bracket.test.ts b/app/models/__tests__/cfp-12-bracket.test.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fa13415 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/models/__tests__/cfp-12-bracket.test.ts @@ -0,0 +1,93 @@ +import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest"; +import { CFP_12, BRACKET_TEMPLATES, getScoringRoundType } from "~/lib/bracket-templates"; + +describe("CFP_12 Bracket Template", () => { + describe("Template structure", () => { + it("has correct total teams", () => { + expect(CFP_12.totalTeams).toBe(12); + }); + + it("has 4 rounds", () => { + expect(CFP_12.rounds).toHaveLength(4); + }); + + it("has correct round names", () => { + expect(CFP_12.rounds[0].name).toBe("First Round"); + expect(CFP_12.rounds[1].name).toBe("Quarterfinals"); + expect(CFP_12.rounds[2].name).toBe("Semifinals"); + expect(CFP_12.rounds[3].name).toBe("National Championship"); + }); + + it("has correct match counts per round", () => { + expect(CFP_12.rounds[0].matchCount).toBe(4); // 8 seeds play, 4 byes + expect(CFP_12.rounds[1].matchCount).toBe(4); // 8 → 4 + expect(CFP_12.rounds[2].matchCount).toBe(2); // 4 → 2 + expect(CFP_12.rounds[3].matchCount).toBe(1); // 2 → 1 + }); + + it("has correct round advancement chain", () => { + expect(CFP_12.rounds[0].feedsInto).toBe("Quarterfinals"); + expect(CFP_12.rounds[1].feedsInto).toBe("Semifinals"); + expect(CFP_12.rounds[2].feedsInto).toBe("National Championship"); + expect(CFP_12.rounds[3].feedsInto).toBeNull(); + }); + }); + + describe("Scoring configuration", () => { + it("scoring starts at Quarterfinals", () => { + expect(CFP_12.scoringStartsAtRound).toBe("Quarterfinals"); + }); + + it("First Round is not scoring", () => { + expect(CFP_12.rounds[0].isScoring).toBe(false); + }); + + it("Quarterfinals is scoring", () => { + expect(CFP_12.rounds[1].isScoring).toBe(true); + }); + + it("Semifinals is scoring", () => { + expect(CFP_12.rounds[2].isScoring).toBe(true); + }); + + it("National Championship is scoring", () => { + expect(CFP_12.rounds[3].isScoring).toBe(true); + }); + }); + + describe("Template ID and registry", () => { + it("has id cfp_12", () => { + expect(CFP_12.id).toBe("cfp_12"); + }); + + it("is registered in BRACKET_TEMPLATES", () => { + expect(BRACKET_TEMPLATES["cfp_12"]).toBeDefined(); + expect(BRACKET_TEMPLATES["cfp_12"]).toBe(CFP_12); + }); + }); + + describe("getScoringRoundType", () => { + it("classifies Quarterfinals as quarterfinals (losers share 5th–8th)", () => { + expect(getScoringRoundType("Quarterfinals", CFP_12)).toBe("quarterfinals"); + }); + + it("classifies Semifinals as semifinals (losers share 3rd–4th)", () => { + expect(getScoringRoundType("Semifinals", CFP_12)).toBe("semifinals"); + }); + + it("classifies National Championship as finals", () => { + expect(getScoringRoundType("National Championship", CFP_12)).toBe("finals"); + }); + + it("returns null for First Round (non-scoring)", () => { + expect(getScoringRoundType("First Round", CFP_12)).toBeNull(); + }); + }); + + describe("Total matches", () => { + it("has 11 total matches across all rounds", () => { + const total = CFP_12.rounds.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.matchCount, 0); + expect(total).toBe(11); // 4 + 4 + 2 + 1 + }); + }); +}); diff --git a/app/models/playoff-match.ts b/app/models/playoff-match.ts index a4d481e..219fdb9 100644 --- a/app/models/playoff-match.ts +++ b/app/models/playoff-match.ts @@ -355,6 +355,11 @@ export async function generateBracketFromTemplate( return await generateAFL10Bracket(eventId, template, participantIds); } + // CFP 12 requires special handling for bye weeks (seeds 1–4 skip First Round) + if (templateId === "cfp_12") { + return await generateCFP12Bracket(eventId, template, participantIds); + } + const matches: NewPlayoffMatch[] = []; // Generate matches for each round in the template @@ -1069,3 +1074,97 @@ export async function assignParticipantsToKnockout( }); } } + +/** + * Generate College Football Playoff 12-team bracket. + * + * First Round (seeds 5–12, 4 games, not scoring): + * Match 1: 5 vs 12 + * Match 2: 6 vs 11 + * Match 3: 7 vs 10 + * Match 4: 8 vs 9 + * + * Quarterfinals (4 games, scoring starts): + * Match 1: 1 vs First Round match 4 winner (8/9) + * Match 2: 4 vs First Round match 1 winner (5/12) + * Match 3: 3 vs First Round match 2 winner (6/11) + * Match 4: 2 vs First Round match 3 winner (7/10) + * + * Semifinals and National Championship: TBD vs TBD + */ +async function generateCFP12Bracket( + eventId: string, + template: BracketTemplate, + participantIds?: string[] +): Promise { + const matches: NewPlayoffMatch[] = []; + + // First Round: seeds 5–12 (indices 4–11), top 4 (indices 0–3) have byes + const firstRoundSeeding: [number, number][] = [ + [4, 11], // 5 vs 12 + [5, 10], // 6 vs 11 + [6, 9], // 7 vs 10 + [7, 8], // 8 vs 9 + ]; + + const firstRound = template.rounds[0]; // "First Round" + for (let i = 0; i < firstRoundSeeding.length; i++) { + const [s1, s2] = firstRoundSeeding[i]; + matches.push({ + scoringEventId: eventId, + round: firstRound.name, + matchNumber: i + 1, + participant1Id: participantIds ? participantIds[s1] : null, + participant2Id: participantIds ? participantIds[s2] : null, + isComplete: false, + isScoring: false, + templateRound: firstRound.name, + seedInfo: `${s1 + 1} vs ${s2 + 1}`, + }); + } + + // Quarterfinals: seeds 1–4 (indices 0–3) receive byes, face First Round winners + // Matchup order mirrors CFP bracket: 1 vs 8/9 winner, 4 vs 5/12 winner, etc. + const quarterfinalsSeeding: [number, string][] = [ + [0, "1 vs TBD"], // 1 seed vs First Round match 4 winner (8v9) + [3, "4 vs TBD"], // 4 seed vs First Round match 1 winner (5v12) + [2, "3 vs TBD"], // 3 seed vs First Round match 2 winner (6v11) + [1, "2 vs TBD"], // 2 seed vs First Round match 3 winner (7v10) + ]; + + const quarterfinalsRound = template.rounds[1]; // "Quarterfinals" + for (let i = 0; i < quarterfinalsSeeding.length; i++) { + const [byeSeedIndex, seedInfo] = quarterfinalsSeeding[i]; + matches.push({ + scoringEventId: eventId, + round: quarterfinalsRound.name, + matchNumber: i + 1, + participant1Id: participantIds ? participantIds[byeSeedIndex] : null, + participant2Id: null, // Filled when First Round winner is known + isComplete: false, + isScoring: true, + templateRound: quarterfinalsRound.name, + seedInfo, + }); + } + + // Semifinals and National Championship: all TBD + for (let roundIndex = 2; roundIndex < template.rounds.length; roundIndex++) { + const round = template.rounds[roundIndex]; + for (let i = 0; i < round.matchCount; i++) { + matches.push({ + scoringEventId: eventId, + round: round.name, + matchNumber: i + 1, + participant1Id: null, + participant2Id: null, + isComplete: false, + isScoring: round.isScoring, + templateRound: round.name, + seedInfo: null, + }); + } + } + + return await createManyPlayoffMatches(matches); +} diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaa-football-simulator.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaa-football-simulator.test.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4e3d4d6 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaa-football-simulator.test.ts @@ -0,0 +1,227 @@ +import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach, type MockInstance } from "vitest"; +import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "../ncaa-football-simulator"; + +vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({ + database: vi.fn(), +})); + +// Use real implementations of pure math functions to avoid mock call accumulation +// across 50k-iteration simulations. Only mock convertFuturesToElo (complex behavior). +vi.mock("~/services/probability-engine", async (importOriginal) => { + const actual = await importOriginal() as Record; + return { + ...actual, + convertFuturesToElo: vi.fn((oddsInput: { participantId: string; odds: number }[]) => { + return new Map(oddsInput.map((o, i) => [o.participantId, 1600 - i * 50])); + }), + }; +}); + +// ─── Helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +const TEAM_IDS = Array.from({ length: 12 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`); + +/** Build EV rows with sourceElo ratings (descending — team-1 is best). */ +function makeEvRows( + ids: string[], + opts: { includeOdds?: boolean } = {} +) { + return ids.map((participantId, i) => ({ + participantId, + sourceElo: 1700 - i * 50, // 1700, 1650, 1600, … + sourceOdds: opts.includeOdds ? (i === 0 ? -200 : 300 + i * 50) : null, + })); +} + +function makeParticipants(ids: string[]) { + return ids.map((id) => ({ id })); +} + +// ─── Tests ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +describe("NCAAFootballSimulator", () => { + let mockDb: { select: MockInstance }; + let selectCallCount: number; + + beforeEach(async () => { + selectCallCount = 0; + const { database } = await import("~/database/context"); + + mockDb = { select: vi.fn() }; + (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb); + }); + + function setupMockDb(participantIds: string[], opts: { includeOdds?: boolean } = {}) { + const participants = makeParticipants(participantIds); + const evRows = makeEvRows(participantIds, opts); + + mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => { + const callIndex = selectCallCount++; + const data = callIndex === 0 ? participants : evRows; + return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) }; + }); + } + + // ── Post-bracket mode (exactly 12 teams) ───────────────────────────────── + + describe("post-bracket mode (exactly 12 teams)", () => { + it("returns one result per participant", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + expect(results).toHaveLength(12); + }); + + it("all probabilities are between 0 and 1", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + + for (const r of results) { + const p = r.probabilities; + expect(p.probFirst).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); + expect(p.probFirst).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1); + expect(p.probSecond).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); + expect(p.probSecond).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1); + } + }); + + it("top-rated team has highest champion probability", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + + const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r])); + expect(byId.get("team-1")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeGreaterThan( + byId.get("team-12")?.probabilities.probFirst ?? 0 + ); + }); + + it("probFirst sums to approximately 1.0", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("probSecond sums to approximately 1.0", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probSecond, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("probThird equals probFourth for every team (tied SF placement)", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + for (const r of results) { + expect(r.probabilities.probThird).toBeCloseTo(r.probabilities.probFourth, 10); + } + }); + + it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for every team (tied QF placement)", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + for (const r of results) { + const p = r.probabilities; + expect(p.probFifth).toBeCloseTo(p.probSixth, 10); + expect(p.probSixth).toBeCloseTo(p.probSeventh, 10); + expect(p.probSeventh).toBeCloseTo(p.probEighth, 10); + } + }); + + it("weakest team has very low champion probability", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r])); + // team-12 (Elo 1150) vs team-1 (Elo 1700): 550-point gap → should rarely win + expect(byId.get("team-12")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.02); + }); + + it("source is cfp_monte_carlo", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + for (const r of results) { + expect(r.source).toBe("cfp_monte_carlo"); + } + }); + + it("uses futures odds when sourceOdds present", async () => { + setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS, { includeOdds: true }); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + expect(results).toHaveLength(12); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + }); + + // ── Pre-bracket mode (>12 teams — probabilistic selection) ─────────────── + + describe("pre-bracket mode (>12 teams)", () => { + it("returns one result per participant when pool is larger than 12", async () => { + const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`); + setupMockDb(twentyTeams); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + expect(results).toHaveLength(20); + }); + + it("probFirst still sums to ~1.0 across all teams (one champion per sim)", async () => { + const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`); + setupMockDb(twentyTeams); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + + it("top team has much higher probFirst than bottom team in larger pool", async () => { + const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`); + setupMockDb(twentyTeams); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r])); + // team-1 (Elo 1700) should win far more often than team-20 (Elo 750) + expect(byId.get("team-1")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeGreaterThan( + (byId.get("team-20")?.probabilities.probFirst ?? 0) * 10 + ); + }); + + it("bottom-pool teams (large Elo gap) rarely appear in champion slot", async () => { + const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`); + setupMockDb(twentyTeams); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r])); + // team-19 and team-20 have Elos of 800 and 750 — far below the top 12 (~1150+) + // With softmax T=100, their selection weight is negligible + expect(byId.get("team-19")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.01); + expect(byId.get("team-20")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.01); + }); + + it("uses futures odds as selection weights when provided", async () => { + const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`); + setupMockDb(twentyTeams, { includeOdds: true }); + const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1"); + expect(results).toHaveLength(20); + const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0); + expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1); + }); + }); + + // ── Error cases ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + + describe("error cases", () => { + it("throws when fewer than 12 participants provided", async () => { + const elevenTeams = TEAM_IDS.slice(0, 11); + let call = 0; + mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => { + const data = call++ === 0 ? makeParticipants(elevenTeams) : makeEvRows(elevenTeams); + return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) }; + }); + await expect(new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/at least 12/); + }); + + it("throws when participant list is empty", async () => { + let call = 0; + mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => { + const data = call++ === 0 ? [] : []; + return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) }; + }); + await expect(new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/at least 12/); + }); + }); +}); diff --git a/app/services/simulations/ncaa-football-simulator.ts b/app/services/simulations/ncaa-football-simulator.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d41fe9f --- /dev/null +++ b/app/services/simulations/ncaa-football-simulator.ts @@ -0,0 +1,350 @@ +/** + * NCAA Football CFP Simulator + * + * Monte Carlo simulation of the College Football Playoff (12-team format, 2024–present). + * + * Algorithm: + * 1. Load all participants for the sports season from DB + * 2. Load Elo/FPI ratings from participantExpectedValues.sourceElo + * (entered via Admin → Elo Ratings page; use FPI, S&P+, or any Elo-scale rating) + * 3. If sourceOdds (American format) are also stored, build a normalized selection + * weight from implied championship probability (used for field selection in step 4) + * and blend into per-game win probability (ELO_WEIGHT=0.6 / ODDS_WEIGHT=0.4). + * 4. Per simulation, select 12 teams for the CFP field: + * - If the pool has exactly 12 teams: use all of them (post-bracket mode). + * - If the pool has >12 teams: weighted sample without replacement using each + * team's selection weight — odds-derived if available, Elo-based otherwise. + * Teams with stronger championship odds are sampled more often, naturally + * encoding both selection probability and bracket strength into one signal. + * 5. Seed the 12 selected teams by Elo (best Elo = seed 1). + * 6. Simulate the CFP bracket: + * First Round (not scoring): 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9 + * Quarterfinals (scoring): 1 vs 8/9w, 4 vs 5/12w, 3 vs 6/11w, 2 vs 7/10w + * Semifinals (scoring): QF1w vs QF2w, QF3w vs QF4w + * National Championship: SF1w vs SF2w + * 7. Track placement counts per scoring tier across all simulations. + * 8. Convert counts to probability distributions. + * + * Pre-bracket vs post-bracket mode: + * Pre-bracket (>12 participants): probabilities reflect both selection uncertainty + * and bracket performance. A bubble team might appear in only 40% of simulated + * fields, so its champion probability accounts for that. + * Post-bracket (exactly 12 participants): deterministic field, bracket-only sim. + * + * Win probability (per game): eloWinProbability() from probability-engine (400-divisor). + * Blended win probability: ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb (when odds present). + * + * Selection weight (pre-bracket mode): + * With sourceOdds: normalized implied championship probability (vig removed, sums to 1). + * Without sourceOdds: softmax on Elo with temperature SELECTION_TEMP (sharply favors + * higher-rated teams — a 200-point Elo gap yields ~7× selection weight difference). + * + * Placement tiers → SimulationProbabilities mapping: + * probFirst = National Champion (1 per sim) + * probSecond = Championship game loser (1 per sim) + * probThird / probFourth = Semifinal losers (2 per sim — split evenly) + * probFifth–probEighth = Quarterfinal losers (4 per sim — split evenly) + * First Round losers → all 0 (score 0 fantasy points) + * Teams not selected → all 0 (not in field for that sim) + * + * Admin setup: + * 1. Create a Sport with simulatorType = "ncaa_football_bracket" + * 2. Create a Sports Season and add all contender participants (12 or more) + * 3. Enter FPI ratings via Admin → Elo Ratings (stored as sourceElo) + * 4. Optionally enter championship futures odds via Admin → Futures Odds (sourceOdds) + * — strongly recommended for pre-bracket mode; drives both selection and bracket strength + * 5. Run simulation via Admin → Simulate + */ + +import { database } from "~/database/context"; +import { eq } from "drizzle-orm"; +import * as schema from "~/database/schema"; +import { + convertAmericanOddsToProbability, + convertFuturesToElo, + eloWinProbability, +} from "~/services/probability-engine"; +import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types"; + +// ─── Simulation parameters ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000; +const BRACKET_SIZE = 12; + +/** + * Blend weights for per-game win probability when sourceOdds are present. + * Lower Elo weight than other sports (0.7) gives more influence to Vegas + * championship odds, which are highly informative in college football. + */ +const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.6; +const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT; + +/** + * Softmax temperature for Elo-based selection weights (pre-bracket mode, no odds). + * At T=100, a 200-point Elo gap produces ~7× weight difference — enough to strongly + * favour the top teams while still giving bubble teams meaningful selection probability. + */ +const SELECTION_TEMP = 100; + +// ─── Types ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +interface Team { + participantId: string; + elo: number; + /** Normalized futures win probability (0–1). Used for blending per-game win prob. */ + oddsProb: number; + /** + * Weight used for probabilistic CFP field selection (pre-bracket mode only). + * Derived from oddsProb when available; otherwise softmax on Elo. + */ + selectionWeight: number; +} + +// ─── Helpers ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +/** + * Blended win probability for team1 vs team2. + * Falls back to pure Elo when no futures data is present. + */ +function blendedWinProb(team1: Team, team2: Team): number { + const eloProbValue = eloWinProbability(team1.elo, team2.elo); + + if (team1.oddsProb === 0 && team2.oddsProb === 0) { + return eloProbValue; + } + + const oddsSum = team1.oddsProb + team2.oddsProb; + const oddsProbValue = oddsSum > 0 ? team1.oddsProb / oddsSum : 0.5; + + return ELO_WEIGHT * eloProbValue + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProbValue; +} + +function simGame(team1: Team, team2: Team): { winner: Team; loser: Team } { + const p1Wins = Math.random() < blendedWinProb(team1, team2); + return p1Wins + ? { winner: team1, loser: team2 } + : { winner: team2, loser: team1 }; +} + +/** + * Weighted sample without replacement — selects `n` teams from `pool` where each + * team's probability of being drawn is proportional to its selectionWeight. + * Returns the selected teams sorted by Elo descending (seed 1 = best Elo). + */ +function sampleBracketField(pool: Team[], n: number): Team[] { + const remaining = [...pool]; + const selected: Team[] = []; + + for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) { + const totalWeight = remaining.reduce((sum, t) => sum + t.selectionWeight, 0); + let r = Math.random() * totalWeight; + let j = 0; + for (; j < remaining.length - 1; j++) { + r -= remaining[j].selectionWeight; + if (r <= 0) break; + } + selected.push(remaining[j]); + remaining.splice(j, 1); + } + + // Seed by Elo so that the best team in the sampled field is always seed 1. + return selected.toSorted((a, b) => b.elo - a.elo); +} + +// ─── Bracket simulation ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +interface PlacementCounts { + champion: number; + finalist: number; + sfLoser: number; + qfLoser: number; +} + +/** + * Simulate one full 12-team CFP bracket. + * + * Seeding (teams sorted best→worst Elo, index 0 = seed 1): + * First Round: [4]v[11], [5]v[10], [6]v[9], [7]v[8] + * Quarterfinals: [0] vs fr4w, [3] vs fr1w, [2] vs fr2w, [1] vs fr3w + * Semifinals: qf1w vs qf2w, qf3w vs qf4w + * Championship: sf1w vs sf2w + */ +function simulateBracket(teams: Team[], counts: Map): void { + // ── First Round (seeds 5–12) ─────────────────────────────────────────────── + const fr1 = simGame(teams[4], teams[11]); // 5 vs 12 + const fr2 = simGame(teams[5], teams[10]); // 6 vs 11 + const fr3 = simGame(teams[6], teams[9]); // 7 vs 10 + const fr4 = simGame(teams[7], teams[8]); // 8 vs 9 + + // ── Quarterfinals (seeds 1–4 get byes) ──────────────────────────────────── + const qf1 = simGame(teams[0], fr4.winner); // 1 vs 8/9 winner + const qf2 = simGame(teams[3], fr1.winner); // 4 vs 5/12 winner + const qf3 = simGame(teams[2], fr2.winner); // 3 vs 6/11 winner + const qf4 = simGame(teams[1], fr3.winner); // 2 vs 7/10 winner + + const bump = (id: string, key: keyof PlacementCounts) => { + const entry = counts.get(id); + if (entry) entry[key]++; + }; + + bump(qf1.loser.participantId, "qfLoser"); + bump(qf2.loser.participantId, "qfLoser"); + bump(qf3.loser.participantId, "qfLoser"); + bump(qf4.loser.participantId, "qfLoser"); + + // ── Semifinals ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + const sf1 = simGame(qf1.winner, qf2.winner); + const sf2 = simGame(qf3.winner, qf4.winner); + + bump(sf1.loser.participantId, "sfLoser"); + bump(sf2.loser.participantId, "sfLoser"); + + // ── National Championship ───────────────────────────────────────────────── + const final = simGame(sf1.winner, sf2.winner); + + bump(final.winner.participantId, "champion"); + bump(final.loser.participantId, "finalist"); +} + +// ─── Simulator ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator { + async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise { + const db = database(); + + // 1. Load all participants for this sports season. + const participants = await db + .select({ id: schema.participants.id }) + .from(schema.participants) + .where(eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId)); + + if (participants.length < BRACKET_SIZE) { + throw new Error( + `CFP simulator requires at least ${BRACKET_SIZE} participants, ` + + `found ${participants.length}. Add all contender teams to the sports season.` + ); + } + + // 2. Load Elo/FPI ratings and optional futures odds in a single query. + const evRows = await db + .select({ + participantId: schema.participantExpectedValues.participantId, + sourceElo: schema.participantExpectedValues.sourceElo, + sourceOdds: schema.participantExpectedValues.sourceOdds, + }) + .from(schema.participantExpectedValues) + .where(eq(schema.participantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId)); + + // Build Elo and raw odds maps in a single pass. + const eloFromDb = new Map(); + const rawOddsProbs = new Map(); + + for (const row of evRows) { + if (row.sourceElo !== null) { + eloFromDb.set(row.participantId, row.sourceElo); + } + if (row.sourceOdds !== null) { + rawOddsProbs.set(row.participantId, convertAmericanOddsToProbability(row.sourceOdds)); + } + } + + // 3. Build normalized odds probability map (vig removed). + const normalizedOddsMap = new Map(); + + if (rawOddsProbs.size > 0) { + const rawSum = [...rawOddsProbs.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0); + for (const [id, prob] of rawOddsProbs) { + normalizedOddsMap.set(id, rawSum > 0 ? prob / rawSum : 0); + } + + // Backfill Elo from futures for any team missing sourceElo. + if (eloFromDb.size < participants.length) { + const oddsInput = evRows + .filter((r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && !eloFromDb.has(r.participantId)) + .map((r) => ({ participantId: r.participantId, odds: r.sourceOdds ?? 0 })); + + if (oddsInput.length > 0) { + const oddsEloMap = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american"); + for (const [id, elo] of oddsEloMap) { + eloFromDb.set(id, elo); + } + } + } + } + + // 4. Build team list with Elo, oddsProb, and selectionWeight. + const hasOdds = normalizedOddsMap.size > 0; + + const allTeams: Team[] = participants.map((p) => ({ + participantId: p.id, + elo: eloFromDb.get(p.id) ?? 1500, + oddsProb: normalizedOddsMap.get(p.id) ?? 0, + selectionWeight: 0, // computed below + })); + + if (hasOdds) { + // Selection weight = normalized championship implied probability. + // This encodes both "probability of making the field" and "strength once there." + for (const team of allTeams) { + team.selectionWeight = normalizedOddsMap.get(team.participantId) ?? 0; + } + } else { + // No odds: softmax on Elo so top-rated teams are strongly favoured. + const eloValues = allTeams.map((t) => t.elo); + const maxElo = Math.max(...eloValues); + // Subtract max for numerical stability before exp(). + const expWeights = allTeams.map((t) => Math.exp((t.elo - maxElo) / SELECTION_TEMP)); + const expSum = expWeights.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0); + for (let i = 0; i < allTeams.length; i++) { + allTeams[i].selectionWeight = expWeights[i] / expSum; + } + } + + const preBracketMode = participants.length > BRACKET_SIZE; + + // In post-bracket mode (exactly 12), sort once and reuse the same field every sim. + const deterministicField = preBracketMode + ? null + : [...allTeams].toSorted((a, b) => b.elo - a.elo); + + // 5. Initialise placement count accumulators for all participants. + const allParticipantIds = participants.map((p) => p.id); + const counts = new Map( + allParticipantIds.map((id) => [id, { champion: 0, finalist: 0, sfLoser: 0, qfLoser: 0 }]) + ); + + // 6. Run Monte Carlo simulations. + for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) { + const field = preBracketMode + ? sampleBracketField(allTeams, BRACKET_SIZE) + : (deterministicField ?? []); + simulateBracket(field, counts); + } + + // 7. Convert counts to probability distributions. + // SF losers: 2 per sim → each team's share = sfLoser / (2 * N). + // QF losers: 4 per sim → each team's share = qfLoser / (4 * N). + const sfDivisor = 2 * NUM_SIMULATIONS; + const qfDivisor = 4 * NUM_SIMULATIONS; + + return allParticipantIds.map((id) => { + const c = counts.get(id) ?? { champion: 0, finalist: 0, sfLoser: 0, qfLoser: 0 }; + const sfProb = c.sfLoser / sfDivisor; + const qfProb = c.qfLoser / qfDivisor; + return { + participantId: id, + probabilities: { + probFirst: c.champion / NUM_SIMULATIONS, + probSecond: c.finalist / NUM_SIMULATIONS, + probThird: sfProb, + probFourth: sfProb, + probFifth: qfProb, + probSixth: qfProb, + probSeventh: qfProb, + probEighth: qfProb, + }, + source: "cfp_monte_carlo", + }; + }); + } +} diff --git a/app/services/simulations/registry.ts b/app/services/simulations/registry.ts index eb1ed26..3cb3818 100644 --- a/app/services/simulations/registry.ts +++ b/app/services/simulations/registry.ts @@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ import { MLBSimulator } from "./mlb-simulator"; import { NFLSimulator } from "./nfl-simulator"; import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator"; import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator"; +import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "./ncaa-football-simulator"; export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [ "f1_standings", @@ -44,6 +45,7 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [ "world_cup", "darts_bracket", "cs2_major_qualifying_points", + "ncaa_football_bracket", ] as const; export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number]; @@ -143,6 +145,10 @@ const REGISTRY: Record Simul info: { name: "CS2 Major Qualifying Points Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates 2 CS2 Majors per season (3 Swiss stages: Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1, Decider Bo3, then Champions Stage single-elimination). Awards QP by final placement; ranks teams by total QP across both majors. Stage 3 exits (placements 9–16) are sub-ranked by W-L record." }, create: () => new CSMajorSimulator(), }, + ncaa_football_bracket: { + info: { name: "NCAA Football CFP Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket using Elo/FPI ratings entered via Admin → Elo Ratings. Optionally blends with championship futures odds (60% Elo / 40% odds). Seeds 1–4 receive first-round byes; First Round losers score 0 points." }, + create: () => new NCAAFootballSimulator(), + }, }; export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator { diff --git a/database/schema.ts b/database/schema.ts index c7736aa..3b42f3d 100644 --- a/database/schema.ts +++ b/database/schema.ts @@ -101,6 +101,7 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [ "world_cup", "darts_bracket", "cs2_major_qualifying_points", + "ncaa_football_bracket", ]); export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [ diff --git a/drizzle/0072_jittery_steve_rogers.sql b/drizzle/0072_jittery_steve_rogers.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000..39e3ead --- /dev/null +++ b/drizzle/0072_jittery_steve_rogers.sql @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'; \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/drizzle/meta/0072_snapshot.json b/drizzle/meta/0072_snapshot.json new file mode 100644 index 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