diff --git a/app/routes/admin.sports.$id.tsx b/app/routes/admin.sports.$id.tsx index de0dde1..4c7ff9b 100644 --- a/app/routes/admin.sports.$id.tsx +++ b/app/routes/admin.sports.$id.tsx @@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ import { SelectTrigger, SelectValue, } from "~/components/ui/select"; -import { SIMULATOR_TYPES } from "~/services/simulations/registry"; +import { SIMULATOR_TYPES, getSimulatorInfo } from "~/services/simulations/registry"; export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors { return [{ title: `${data?.sport?.name ?? "Sport"} - Brackt Admin` }]; @@ -205,14 +205,11 @@ export default function EditSport({ loaderData, actionData }: Route.ComponentPro No simulator - F1 Standings Model - IndyCar Standings Model - Golf Qualifying Points Model - Bracket Monte Carlo - UCL Bracket Monte Carlo - NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo - NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo - NBA Playoff Monte Carlo + {SIMULATOR_TYPES.map((type) => ( + + {getSimulatorInfo(type)?.name ?? type} + + ))}

diff --git a/app/services/simulations/nhl-simulator.ts b/app/services/simulations/nhl-simulator.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e296af3 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/services/simulations/nhl-simulator.ts @@ -0,0 +1,572 @@ +/** + * NHL Playoff Simulator + * + * Monte Carlo simulation of the NHL playoffs including seeding projection + * for the current season (2025-26). + * + * Algorithm: + * 1. Load all participants for the sports season from DB + * 2. Match participant names to hardcoded team data (Elo + seeding probabilities) + * 3. For each simulation: + * a. For each conference, draw division placements (1st/2nd/3rd per division) + * and two wildcard teams using weighted probability distributions + * b. Build the NHL bracket: + * - Higher-Elo division winner faces WC2; other division winner faces WC1 + * - Each division's 2nd vs 3rd seeds play each other + * c. Simulate 4 rounds of best-of-7 series: + * Round 1 (Wild Card): m0=topDiv1st/WC2, m1=otherDiv1st/WC1, + * m2=topDiv2nd/3rd, m3=otherDiv2nd/3rd + * Round 2 (Div Finals): m0w vs m2w, m1w vs m3w + * Round 3 (Conf Finals): two division-final winners per conference + * Stanley Cup Final: East champ vs West champ + * 4. Track placement counts per scoring tier + * 5. Convert counts to probability distributions + * + * Win probability (Elo, PARITY_FACTOR = 800): + * P(A beats B) = 1 / (1 + 10^((eloB - eloA) / 800)) + * NHL uses a higher parity factor than the standard 400 to dampen the Elo + * spread and reflect the high variance of hockey. + * + * Placement tiers → SimulationProbabilities mapping: + * probFirst = Stanley Cup champion (1 per sim) + * probSecond = Stanley Cup Final loser (1 per sim) + * probThird / probFourth = Conference Final losers (2 per sim — East + West) + * probFifth–probEighth = Second Round losers (4 per sim) + * First Round losers → all 0 (score 0 points) + * Missed playoffs → all 0 + * + * Seeding probability keys per team: + * p_div1 = prob of winning own division + * p_div2 = prob of finishing 2nd in own division + * p_div3 = prob of finishing 3rd in own division + * p_wc1 = prob of being conference wildcard 1 (higher-ranked WC) + * p_wc2 = prob of being conference wildcard 2 (lower-ranked WC) + * Sum of all p_* ≈ team's overall playoff probability. + * Teams with no p_* entries always miss the playoffs. + * + * Elo ratings and seeding probabilities are hardcoded below (March 2026 data). + * Source: https://elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026 (Elo ratings + playoff% calibration). + * Seeding probabilities are hand-derived from current standings as of March 18, 2026. + * Update at the start of each season. + */ + +import { database } from "~/database/context"; +import { eq } from "drizzle-orm"; +import * as schema from "~/database/schema"; +import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types"; + +// ─── Simulation parameters ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000; + +/** + * Elo parity factor. NHL uses 800 (double the standard 400) to reflect the + * high game-to-game variance in hockey vs other sports. + * An 800-point Elo difference → ~90.9% win probability per game. + */ +const PARITY_FACTOR = 800; + +// ─── Team data (2025-26 season, as of March 18, 2026) ──────────────────────── +// +// elo: Elo rating from elo.harvitronix.com/nhl/2025-2026. +// p_div1: Probability of finishing 1st in own division. +// p_div2: Probability of finishing 2nd in own division. +// p_div3: Probability of finishing 3rd in own division. +// p_wc1: Probability of being conference wildcard 1 (higher seed). +// p_wc2: Probability of being conference wildcard 2 (lower seed). +// +// These are weights used in sequential weighted sampling (not strict distributions). +// Sum of all p_* per team ≈ their overall playoff% from the Harvitronix site. +// +// Divisions: +// Eastern — Atlantic: BOS, BUF, DET, FLA, MTL, OTT, TBL, TOR +// Eastern — Metropolitan: CAR, CBJ, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH +// Western — Central: CHI, COL, DAL, MIN, NSH, STL, UTA, WPG +// Western — Pacific: ANA, CGY, EDM, LAK, SJS, SEA, VAN, VGK + +interface NhlTeamData { + conference: "Eastern" | "Western"; + division: "Atlantic" | "Metropolitan" | "Central" | "Pacific"; + elo: number; + p_div1?: number; + p_div2?: number; + p_div3?: number; + p_wc1?: number; + p_wc2?: number; +} + +const TEAMS_DATA: Record = { + // ── Eastern Conference — Atlantic ────────────────────────────────────────── + // BUF 108 pts, TBL 107 pts — neck-and-neck for 1st; both near-certain to make playoffs. + // MTL 101 pts (86.7% PO) — almost certainly 3rd in Atlantic or WC. + // OTT 96 pts (50.2%), DET 98 pts (63%), BOS 96 pts (51.1%) — WC bubble. + // FLA 85 pts (0.5%), TOR 83 pts (0%) — eliminated. + + "Tampa Bay Lightning": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1587, + p_div1: 0.50, p_div2: 0.40, p_div3: 0.06, + }, + "Buffalo Sabres": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1572, + p_div1: 0.45, p_div2: 0.42, p_div3: 0.07, + }, + "Montreal Canadiens": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1527, + p_div1: 0.01, p_div2: 0.05, p_div3: 0.60, p_wc1: 0.12, p_wc2: 0.06, + }, + "Ottawa Senators": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1542, + p_div1: 0.01, p_div2: 0.05, p_div3: 0.08, p_wc1: 0.22, p_wc2: 0.19, + }, + "Detroit Red Wings": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1506, + p_div3: 0.09, p_wc1: 0.27, p_wc2: 0.22, + }, + "Boston Bruins": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1501, + p_div3: 0.08, p_wc1: 0.22, p_wc2: 0.19, + }, + "Florida Panthers": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1505, + p_wc2: 0.005, + }, + "Toronto Maple Leafs": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Atlantic", elo: 1479, + // 0% playoff probability — always miss + }, + + // ── Eastern Conference — Metropolitan ───────────────────────────────────── + // CAR 109 pts (99.9%) — clear 1st seed. + // CBJ/PIT/NYI all tied at 99 pts — volatile 2nd/3rd/WC race. + // WSH 89 pts (4.7%), PHI 90 pts (7.9%) — long shots. + // NJD 86 pts (0.5%), NYR 80 pts (0%) — eliminated. + + "Carolina Hurricanes": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1574, + p_div1: 0.98, p_div2: 0.01, + }, + "Columbus Blue Jackets": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1530, + p_div2: 0.33, p_div3: 0.33, p_wc1: 0.05, p_wc2: 0.04, + }, + "Pittsburgh Penguins": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1518, + p_div2: 0.35, p_div3: 0.35, p_wc1: 0.07, p_wc2: 0.07, + }, + "New York Islanders": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1513, + p_div2: 0.28, p_div3: 0.35, p_wc1: 0.07, p_wc2: 0.07, + }, + "Philadelphia Flyers": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1473, + p_wc1: 0.02, p_wc2: 0.05, + }, + "Washington Capitals": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1506, + p_wc1: 0.01, p_wc2: 0.03, + }, + "New Jersey Devils": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1488, + p_wc2: 0.005, + }, + "New York Rangers": { + conference: "Eastern", division: "Metropolitan", elo: 1480, + // 0% playoff probability — always miss + }, + + // ── Western Conference — Central ─────────────────────────────────────────── + // COL 119 pts, DAL 113 pts, MIN 106 pts — all locked in as top 3. + // UTA 93 pts (92.8%) — leading WC candidate from Central. + // NSH 85 pts (21.9%), WPG 82 pts (6.6%), STL 80 pts (2.2%) — long shots. + // CHI 75 pts (0%) — eliminated. + + "Colorado Avalanche": { + conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1594, + p_div1: 0.90, p_div2: 0.09, p_div3: 0.01, + }, + "Dallas Stars": { + conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1581, + p_div1: 0.08, p_div2: 0.80, p_div3: 0.11, + }, + "Minnesota Wild": { + conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1548, + p_div1: 0.02, p_div2: 0.10, p_div3: 0.86, p_wc1: 0.01, + }, + "Utah Mammoth": { + conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1529, + p_div3: 0.02, p_wc1: 0.55, p_wc2: 0.33, + }, + "Nashville Predators": { + conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1471, + p_wc1: 0.04, p_wc2: 0.17, + }, + "Winnipeg Jets": { + conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1483, + p_wc1: 0.01, p_wc2: 0.05, + }, + "St. Louis Blues": { + conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1473, + p_wc2: 0.02, + }, + "Chicago Blackhawks": { + conference: "Western", division: "Central", elo: 1411, + // 0% playoff probability — always miss + }, + + // ── Western Conference — Pacific ─────────────────────────────────────────── + // ANA 94 pts, EDM 93 pts, VGK 93 pts — tight 3-way race for all 3 Pacific seeds. + // LAK 87 pts (39.1%), SJS 87 pts (38.9%), SEA 86 pts (26.6%) — WC bubble. + // CGY 73 pts (0%), VAN 63 pts (0%) — eliminated. + + "Anaheim Ducks": { + conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1490, + p_div1: 0.40, p_div2: 0.33, p_div3: 0.17, p_wc1: 0.02, p_wc2: 0.01, + }, + "Edmonton Oilers": { + conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1531, + p_div1: 0.30, p_div2: 0.32, p_div3: 0.20, p_wc1: 0.04, p_wc2: 0.04, + }, + "Vegas Golden Knights": { + conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1519, + p_div1: 0.25, p_div2: 0.28, p_div3: 0.20, p_wc1: 0.06, p_wc2: 0.06, + }, + "Los Angeles Kings": { + conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1482, + p_div2: 0.02, p_div3: 0.09, p_wc1: 0.14, p_wc2: 0.12, + }, + "San Jose Sharks": { + conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1455, + p_div2: 0.01, p_div3: 0.08, p_wc1: 0.14, p_wc2: 0.12, + }, + "Seattle Kraken": { + conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1469, + p_div3: 0.07, p_wc1: 0.10, p_wc2: 0.10, + }, + "Calgary Flames": { + conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1436, + // 0% playoff probability — always miss + }, + "Vancouver Canucks": { + conference: "Western", division: "Pacific", elo: 1403, + // 0% playoff probability — always miss + }, +}; + +// ─── Public helpers (exported for unit testing) ─────────────────────────────── + +/** Normalize a team name for lookup (lowercase, trimmed, collapsed whitespace). */ +export function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string { + return name.toLowerCase().trim().replace(/\s+/g, " "); +} + +/** Look up team data by participant name (case-insensitive). */ +export function getTeamData(name: string): NhlTeamData | undefined { + const normalized = normalizeTeamName(name); + for (const [teamName, data] of Object.entries(TEAMS_DATA)) { + if (normalizeTeamName(teamName) === normalized) return data; + } + return undefined; +} + +/** + * Elo win probability for team A over team B. + * P(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^((eloB - eloA) / PARITY_FACTOR)) + * Exported for unit testing. + */ +export function eloWinProbability(eloA: number, eloB: number): number { + return 1 / (1 + Math.pow(10, (eloB - eloA) / PARITY_FACTOR)); +} + +// ─── Internal types ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +interface TeamEntry { + id: string; + name: string; + data: NhlTeamData | undefined; +} + +type DivisionSeedings = { + first: TeamEntry; + second: TeamEntry; + third: TeamEntry; +}; + +// ─── Simulator ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +export class NHLSimulator implements Simulator { + async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise { + const db = database(); + + // 1. Load all participants for this sports season. + const participantRows = await db + .select({ id: schema.participants.id, name: schema.participants.name }) + .from(schema.participants) + .where(eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId)); + + if (participantRows.length === 0) { + throw new Error( + `No participants found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}. ` + + `Add NHL teams as participants before running simulation.` + ); + } + + const participantIds = participantRows.map((r) => r.id); + + const teams: TeamEntry[] = participantRows.map((r) => ({ + id: r.id, + name: r.name, + data: getTeamData(r.name), + })); + + // Warn about participants that don't match any hardcoded team. + // These are excluded entirely rather than silently landing in the wildcard pool. + const unrecognized = teams.filter((t) => !t.data); + if (unrecognized.length > 0) { + console.warn( + `[NHLSimulator] ${unrecognized.length} participant(s) not found in TEAMS_DATA and will be excluded: ` + + unrecognized.map((t) => t.name).join(", ") + ); + } + + // Separate recognized teams by conference + division. + const easternAtlantic = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.division === "Atlantic"); + const easternMetro = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.division === "Metropolitan"); + const westernCentral = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.division === "Central"); + const westernPacific = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.division === "Pacific"); + + // Only recognized teams enter the conference wildcard pools. + const easternTeams = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.conference === "Eastern"); + const westernTeams = teams.filter((t) => t.data?.conference === "Western"); + + if (easternTeams.length < 8 || westernTeams.length < 8) { + throw new Error( + `Each conference needs at least 8 recognized participants ` + + `(got East: ${easternTeams.length}, West: ${westernTeams.length}). ` + + `Add all 32 NHL teams before running simulation.` + ); + } + + // ─── Helpers (defined once, outside the hot loop) ───────────────────────── + + /** Get Elo for a team entry. Fallback 1400 for unknown teams. */ + const elo = (entry: TeamEntry): number => entry.data?.elo ?? 1400; + + /** Simulate a best-of-7 series. Returns winner and loser. */ + const simSeries = (a: TeamEntry, b: TeamEntry): { winner: TeamEntry; loser: TeamEntry } => { + const winProb = eloWinProbability(elo(a), elo(b)); + let winsA = 0; + let winsB = 0; + while (winsA < 4 && winsB < 4) { + if (Math.random() < winProb) winsA++; else winsB++; + } + return winsA === 4 ? { winner: a, loser: b } : { winner: b, loser: a }; + }; + + /** + * Weighted pick without replacement. + * Draws one team from `pool` using the given seeding weight key, excluding `excluded`. + * Returns undefined if no eligible team has positive weight — the caller should + * treat that as a degenerate draw and skip the iteration. + */ + const weightedPick = ( + pool: TeamEntry[], + weightKey: "p_div1" | "p_div2" | "p_div3" | "p_wc1" | "p_wc2", + excluded: Set + ): TeamEntry | undefined => { + const eligible = pool.filter((t) => !excluded.has(t)); + if (eligible.length === 0) return undefined; + + const weights = eligible.map((t) => t.data?.[weightKey] ?? 0); + const total = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w, 0); + if (total === 0) return undefined; // no team has positive weight for this slot + + let r = Math.random() * total; + for (let i = 0; i < eligible.length; i++) { + r -= weights[i]; + if (r <= 0) return eligible[i]; + } + return eligible[eligible.length - 1]; + }; + + /** + * Draw the top-3 playoff seeds for a single division. + * Returns undefined for each position if no team has weight for that slot + * (shouldn't happen with correct data, but handled gracefully). + */ + const drawDivisionSeedings = (divTeams: TeamEntry[]): DivisionSeedings | undefined => { + const taken = new Set(); + + const first = weightedPick(divTeams, "p_div1", taken); + if (!first) return undefined; + taken.add(first); + + const second = weightedPick(divTeams, "p_div2", taken); + if (!second) return undefined; + taken.add(second); + + const third = weightedPick(divTeams, "p_div3", taken); + if (!third) return undefined; + + return { first, second, third }; + }; + + /** + * Build the 8-team playoff bracket for one conference. + * Returns [m0, m1, m2, m3] where each element is [higher-seed, lower-seed]. + * + * Bracket: + * m0: topDiv_1st vs WC2 (top division winner plays weaker wildcard) + * m1: otherDiv_1st vs WC1 (other division winner plays stronger wildcard) + * m2: topDiv_2nd vs topDiv_3rd + * m3: otherDiv_2nd vs otherDiv_3rd + * + * "Top division" = whichever division winner has higher Elo. The actual NHL rule + * uses regular season points, but Elo is a reasonable per-simulation proxy since + * we don't simulate the regular season — it approximates the same ordering. + */ + const buildConferenceBracket = ( + divATeams: TeamEntry[], + divBTeams: TeamEntry[], + allConfTeams: TeamEntry[] + ): [[TeamEntry, TeamEntry], [TeamEntry, TeamEntry], [TeamEntry, TeamEntry], [TeamEntry, TeamEntry]] | undefined => { + const divA = drawDivisionSeedings(divATeams); + const divB = drawDivisionSeedings(divBTeams); + if (!divA || !divB) return undefined; + + const divisionWinners = new Set([divA.first, divA.second, divA.third, divB.first, divB.second, divB.third]); + const wcPool = allConfTeams.filter((t) => !divisionWinners.has(t)); + const wcTaken = new Set(); + + const wc1 = weightedPick(wcPool, "p_wc1", wcTaken); + if (!wc1) return undefined; + wcTaken.add(wc1); + + const wc2 = weightedPick(wcPool, "p_wc2", wcTaken); + if (!wc2) return undefined; + + // Higher-Elo division winner faces WC2 (the weaker wildcard). + const [topDiv, otherDiv] = + elo(divA.first) >= elo(divB.first) + ? [divA, divB] + : [divB, divA]; + + return [ + [topDiv.first, wc2], // m0 + [otherDiv.first, wc1], // m1 + [topDiv.second, topDiv.third], // m2 + [otherDiv.second, otherDiv.third], // m3 + ]; + }; + + // ─── Placement count maps ────────────────────────────────────────────────── + + const championCounts = new Map(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0])); + const finalistCounts = new Map(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0])); + const confFinalLoserCounts = new Map(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0])); + const r2LoserCounts = new Map(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0])); + + // ─── Monte Carlo simulation loop ─────────────────────────────────────────── + + // Track effective iterations separately: degenerate bracket draws are skipped + // and must not count toward the probability denominators. + let effectiveN = 0; + + for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) { + // Build conference brackets. + const eastBracket = buildConferenceBracket(easternAtlantic, easternMetro, easternTeams); + const westBracket = buildConferenceBracket(westernCentral, westernPacific, westernTeams); + if (!eastBracket || !westBracket) continue; // degenerate draw — do not count + effectiveN++; + + // ── Eastern Conference ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── + // Round 1: 4 series (Wild Card round). + const eastR1Winners = eastBracket.map(([a, b]) => simSeries(a, b).winner); + + // Round 2 (Division Finals): + // m0w (topDiv1st/WC2 winner) vs m2w (topDiv 2nd/3rd winner) + // m1w (otherDiv1st/WC1 winner) vs m3w (otherDiv 2nd/3rd winner) + const eastR2m1 = simSeries(eastR1Winners[0], eastR1Winners[2]); + const eastR2m2 = simSeries(eastR1Winners[1], eastR1Winners[3]); + + // Conference Final. + const eastCF = simSeries(eastR2m1.winner, eastR2m2.winner); + const eastChamp = eastCF.winner; + confFinalLoserCounts.set(eastCF.loser.id, confFinalLoserCounts.get(eastCF.loser.id)! + 1); + + // ── Western Conference ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── + const westR1Winners = westBracket.map(([a, b]) => simSeries(a, b).winner); + const westR2m1 = simSeries(westR1Winners[0], westR1Winners[2]); + const westR2m2 = simSeries(westR1Winners[1], westR1Winners[3]); + const westCF = simSeries(westR2m1.winner, westR2m2.winner); + const westChamp = westCF.winner; + confFinalLoserCounts.set(westCF.loser.id, confFinalLoserCounts.get(westCF.loser.id)! + 1); + + // ── Stanley Cup Final ───────────────────────────────────────────────────── + const final = simSeries(eastChamp, westChamp); + championCounts.set(final.winner.id, championCounts.get(final.winner.id)! + 1); + finalistCounts.set(final.loser.id, finalistCounts.get(final.loser.id)! + 1); + + // Round 2 losers (4 per sim). Round 1 losers are not counted (0 points). + for (const loser of [eastR2m1.loser, eastR2m2.loser, westR2m1.loser, westR2m2.loser]) { + r2LoserCounts.set(loser.id, r2LoserCounts.get(loser.id)! + 1); + } + } + + if (effectiveN === 0) { + throw new Error( + "All simulations produced degenerate brackets. " + + "Check that each division has teams with positive seeding probabilities." + ); + } + + // ─── Convert counts to probability distributions ─────────────────────────── + // + // probFirst/Second → count / N (1 team per sim) + // probThird/Fourth → count / (2 * N) (2 conf final losers per sim) + // probFifth–Eighth → count / (4 * N) (4 R2 losers per sim) + // + const N = effectiveN; + const results: SimulationResult[] = participantIds.map((participantId) => { + const c = championCounts.get(participantId)!; + const f = finalistCounts.get(participantId)!; + const cf = confFinalLoserCounts.get(participantId)!; + const r2 = r2LoserCounts.get(participantId)!; + return { + participantId, + probabilities: { + probFirst: c / N, + probSecond: f / N, + probThird: cf / (2 * N), + probFourth: cf / (2 * N), + probFifth: r2 / (4 * N), + probSixth: r2 / (4 * N), + probSeventh: r2 / (4 * N), + probEighth: r2 / (4 * N), + }, + source: "nhl_bracket_monte_carlo", + }; + }); + + // ─── Per-position normalization ──────────────────────────────────────────── + // + // Belt-and-suspenders guard against floating-point residuals. + // Columns are already near-exactly 1.0 by construction above. + // + const positionKeys: Array = [ + "probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth", + "probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth", + ]; + for (const key of positionKeys) { + const colSum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0); + const residual = 1.0 - colSum; + if (residual !== 0) { + const maxResult = results.reduce((best, r) => + r.probabilities[key] > best.probabilities[key] ? r : best + ); + maxResult.probabilities[key] += residual; + } + } + + return results; + } +} diff --git a/app/services/simulations/registry.ts b/app/services/simulations/registry.ts index 7b82f04..98eb0b9 100644 --- a/app/services/simulations/registry.ts +++ b/app/services/simulations/registry.ts @@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator"; import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator"; import { NCAAWSimulator } from "./ncaaw-simulator"; import { NBASimulator } from "./nba-simulator"; +import { NHLSimulator } from "./nhl-simulator"; export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [ "f1_standings", @@ -24,6 +25,7 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [ "ncaam_bracket", "ncaaw_bracket", "nba_bracket", + "nhl_bracket", ] as const; export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number]; @@ -80,6 +82,10 @@ const REGISTRY: Record Simul info: { name: "NBA Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NBA playoff seedings (via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" }, create: () => new NBASimulator(), }, + nhl_bracket: { + info: { name: "NHL Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NHL playoff seedings (divisional format, via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" }, + create: () => new NHLSimulator(), + }, }; export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator { diff --git a/database/schema.ts b/database/schema.ts index dd2df89..59196d5 100644 --- a/database/schema.ts +++ b/database/schema.ts @@ -86,6 +86,7 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [ "ncaam_bracket", "ncaaw_bracket", "nba_bracket", + "nhl_bracket", ]); export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [ diff --git a/drizzle/0050_chief_peter_quill.sql b/drizzle/0050_chief_peter_quill.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000..32593a3 --- /dev/null +++ b/drizzle/0050_chief_peter_quill.sql @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'nhl_bracket'; diff --git a/drizzle/meta/0050_snapshot.json b/drizzle/meta/0050_snapshot.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..89940b8 --- /dev/null +++ b/drizzle/meta/0050_snapshot.json @@ -0,0 +1,3545 @@ +{ + "id": "31dd50f8-e1c7-4e76-9150-0f36507ac4a2", + "prevId": "b36f2af2-46ba-48e1-9c59-eb38bcbfdedc", + "version": "7", + "dialect": "postgresql", + "tables": { + "public.autodraft_settings": { + "name": "autodraft_settings", + "schema": "", + "columns": { + "id": { + "name": "id", + "type": "uuid", + "primaryKey": true, + "notNull": true, + "default": "gen_random_uuid()" + }, + "season_id": { + "name": "season_id", + "type": "uuid", + "primaryKey": false, + "notNull": true + }, + "team_id": { + "name": "team_id", + "type": "uuid", + "primaryKey": false, + "notNull": true + }, + "is_enabled": { + "name": "is_enabled", + "type": "boolean", + "primaryKey": false, + "notNull": true, + "default": false + }, + "mode": { + "name": "mode", + "type": "autodraft_mode", + "typeSchema": "public", + "primaryKey": false, + "notNull": true, + "default": "'next_pick'" + }, + "queue_only": { + "name": "queue_only", + "type": "boolean", + "primaryKey": false, + "notNull": true, + "default": false + }, + "created_at": { + "name": "created_at", + "type": "timestamp", + "primaryKey": false, + "notNull": true, + "default": "now()" + }, + "updated_at": { + "name": "updated_at", + "type": "timestamp", + "primaryKey": false, + "notNull": true, + "default": "now()" + } + }, + "indexes": {}, + "foreignKeys": { + "autodraft_settings_season_id_seasons_id_fk": { + "name": "autodraft_settings_season_id_seasons_id_fk", + "tableFrom": "autodraft_settings", + "tableTo": "seasons", + "columnsFrom": [ + "season_id" + ], + "columnsTo": [ + "id" + ], + "onDelete": "cascade", + "onUpdate": "no action" + }, + "autodraft_settings_team_id_teams_id_fk": { + "name": "autodraft_settings_team_id_teams_id_fk", + "tableFrom": "autodraft_settings", + "tableTo": "teams", + "columnsFrom": [ + "team_id" + ], + "columnsTo": [ + "id" + ], + "onDelete": "cascade", + "onUpdate": "no action" + } + }, + "compositePrimaryKeys": {}, + "uniqueConstraints": {}, + "policies": {}, + "checkConstraints": {}, + "isRLSEnabled": false + }, + "public.commissioners": { + "name": "commissioners", + "schema": "", + "columns": { + "id": { + "name": "id", + "type": "uuid", + "primaryKey": true, + 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