diff --git a/app/lib/bracket-templates.ts b/app/lib/bracket-templates.ts index eba2be8..a46d0aa 100644 --- a/app/lib/bracket-templates.ts +++ b/app/lib/bracket-templates.ts @@ -350,6 +350,44 @@ export const SIMPLE_32: BracketTemplate = { ], }; +/** + * NCAA Men's College Hockey Tournament (16 teams) + * Regional Semifinals → Regional Finals → Frozen Four Semifinals → National Championship + * Only Regional Finals and beyond score points (top 8). + */ +export const COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16: BracketTemplate = { + id: "college_hockey_16", + name: "NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament (16 teams)", + totalTeams: 16, + scoringStartsAtRound: "Regional Finals", + rounds: [ + { + name: "Regional Semifinals", + matchCount: 8, + feedsInto: "Regional Finals", + isScoring: false, + }, + { + name: "Regional Finals", + matchCount: 4, + feedsInto: "Frozen Four Semifinals", + isScoring: true, + }, + { + name: "Frozen Four Semifinals", + matchCount: 2, + feedsInto: "National Championship", + isScoring: true, + }, + { + name: "National Championship", + matchCount: 1, + feedsInto: null, + isScoring: true, + }, + ], +}; + /** * PDC World Darts Championship (128 players) * R1 (128) → R2 (64) → R3 (32) → R4 (16) → Quarterfinals → Semifinals → Final @@ -878,6 +916,7 @@ export const BRACKET_TEMPLATES: Record = { simple_4: SIMPLE_4, simple_8: SIMPLE_8, simple_16: SIMPLE_16, + college_hockey_16: COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16, simple_32: SIMPLE_32, ncaa_68: NCAA_68, nfl_14: NFL_14, diff --git a/app/models/__tests__/bracket-templates.test.ts b/app/models/__tests__/bracket-templates.test.ts index 3434560..478a02a 100644 --- a/app/models/__tests__/bracket-templates.test.ts +++ b/app/models/__tests__/bracket-templates.test.ts @@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import { SIMPLE_8, SIMPLE_16, SIMPLE_32, + COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16, NCAA_68, NFL_14, getBracketTemplate, @@ -44,6 +45,21 @@ describe("Bracket Templates", () => { expect(SIMPLE_16.rounds[3].isScoring).toBe(true); }); + it("COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16 has correct structure", () => { + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.id).toBe("college_hockey_16"); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.totalTeams).toBe(16); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds).toHaveLength(4); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.scoringStartsAtRound).toBe("Regional Finals"); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds[0].name).toBe("Regional Semifinals"); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds[0].isScoring).toBe(false); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds[1].name).toBe("Regional Finals"); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds[1].isScoring).toBe(true); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds[2].name).toBe("Frozen Four Semifinals"); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds[2].isScoring).toBe(true); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds[3].name).toBe("National Championship"); + expect(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16.rounds[3].isScoring).toBe(true); + }); + it("SIMPLE_32 has correct structure", () => { expect(SIMPLE_32.id).toBe("simple_32"); expect(SIMPLE_32.totalTeams).toBe(32); @@ -145,6 +161,7 @@ describe("Bracket Templates", () => { expect(getBracketTemplate("simple_4")).toBe(SIMPLE_4); expect(getBracketTemplate("simple_8")).toBe(SIMPLE_8); expect(getBracketTemplate("simple_16")).toBe(SIMPLE_16); + expect(getBracketTemplate("college_hockey_16")).toBe(COLLEGE_HOCKEY_16); expect(getBracketTemplate("ncaa_68")).toBe(NCAA_68); }); diff --git a/app/models/participant-expected-value.ts b/app/models/participant-expected-value.ts index a3d3775..2ae8e4c 100644 --- a/app/models/participant-expected-value.ts +++ b/app/models/participant-expected-value.ts @@ -425,7 +425,7 @@ export async function batchSaveSourceOdds( * Uses INSERT ... ON CONFLICT DO UPDATE to avoid N+1 queries. */ export async function batchSaveSourceElos( - inputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number; worldRanking?: number | null }> + inputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number | null; worldRanking?: number | null }> ): Promise { if (inputs.length === 0) return; const db = database(); diff --git a/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings.tsx b/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings.tsx index 02fa134..766a7ba 100644 --- a/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings.tsx +++ b/app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings.tsx @@ -40,10 +40,12 @@ import { } from '~/services/probability-engine'; // Simulator types that use worldRanking in addition to sourceElo -const RANKING_SIMULATOR_TYPES = new Set(['darts_bracket', 'cs2_major_qualifying_points']); +const RANKING_SIMULATOR_TYPES = new Set(['darts_bracket', 'cs2_major_qualifying_points', 'college_hockey_bracket']); +const RANK_ONLY_SIMULATOR_TYPES = new Set(['college_hockey_bracket']); function rankingLabel(simulatorType: string | null | undefined): string { if (simulatorType === 'cs2_major_qualifying_points') return 'HLTV Rank'; + if (simulatorType === 'college_hockey_bracket') return 'NPI Rank'; return 'World Rank'; } @@ -98,11 +100,13 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) { } const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId); - const usesRanking = RANKING_SIMULATOR_TYPES.has(sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType ?? ''); + const simulatorType = sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType ?? ''; + const usesRanking = RANKING_SIMULATOR_TYPES.has(simulatorType); + const allowsRankOnly = RANK_ONLY_SIMULATOR_TYPES.has(simulatorType); const rawMode = formData.get('inputMode'); const inputMode = rawMode === 'projectedWins' ? 'projectedWins' : 'elo'; - const eloInputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number; worldRanking?: number | null }> = []; + const eloInputs: Array<{ participantId: string; sportsSeasonId: string; sourceElo: number | null; worldRanking?: number | null }> = []; if (inputMode === 'projectedWins' && sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType) { const config = getSimulatorConfig(sportsSeason.sport.simulatorType as SimulatorType); @@ -128,20 +132,21 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) { const eloVal = formData.get(`elo_${participant.id}`) as string; const rankVal = formData.get(`rank_${participant.id}`) as string; - if (eloVal && eloVal.trim() !== '') { - const elo = Number(eloVal); - if (!isNaN(elo) && elo > 0) { - if (usesRanking) { - const ranking = rankVal && rankVal.trim() !== '' ? Number(rankVal) : null; - eloInputs.push({ - participantId: participant.id, - sportsSeasonId, - sourceElo: elo, - worldRanking: ranking && !isNaN(ranking) && ranking > 0 ? ranking : null, - }); - } else { - eloInputs.push({ participantId: participant.id, sportsSeasonId, sourceElo: elo }); - } + const elo = eloVal && eloVal.trim() !== '' ? Number(eloVal) : null; + const ranking = rankVal && rankVal.trim() !== '' ? Number(rankVal) : null; + const validElo = elo !== null && !isNaN(elo) && elo > 0; + const validRanking = ranking !== null && !isNaN(ranking) && ranking > 0; + + if (validElo || (usesRanking && allowsRankOnly && validRanking)) { + if (usesRanking) { + eloInputs.push({ + participantId: participant.id, + sportsSeasonId, + sourceElo: validElo ? elo : null, + worldRanking: validRanking ? ranking : null, + }); + } else if (validElo) { + eloInputs.push({ participantId: participant.id, sportsSeasonId, sourceElo: elo }); } } } @@ -150,7 +155,9 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) { if (eloInputs.length === 0) { return { success: false, message: inputMode === 'projectedWins' ? 'Please enter projections for at least one participant' - : 'Please enter an Elo rating for at least one participant' }; + : allowsRankOnly + ? 'Please enter an Elo rating or NPI rank for at least one participant' + : 'Please enter an Elo rating for at least one participant' }; } if (!sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType) { @@ -286,8 +293,8 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { const [bulkText, setBulkText] = useState(''); const [parseResults, setParseResults] = useState<{ - matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number; ranking: number | null; inputName: string }>; - unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number; ranking: number | null }>; + matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; inputName: string }>; + unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null }>; } | null>(null); function findParticipantMatch(inputName: string) { @@ -312,8 +319,8 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { function parseBulkText() { const lines = bulkText.split('\n'); - const matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number; ranking: number | null; inputName: string }> = []; - const unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number; ranking: number | null }> = []; + const matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; inputName: string }> = []; + const unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null }> = []; const seen = new Set(); for (const line of lines) { @@ -342,15 +349,23 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { } } else { const match = usesRanking - ? /^(.+?)[\s,:\t]+(\d{3,5})(?:[\s,:\t]+(\d{1,3}))?\s*$/.exec(trimmed) + ? /^(.+?)[\s,:\t]+(\d{1,5})(?:[\s,:\t]+(\d{1,3}))?\s*$/.exec(trimmed) : /^(.+?)[\s,:\t]+(\d{3,5})\s*$/.exec(trimmed); if (!match) continue; const inputName = match[1].trim(); - const elo = parseInt(match[2], 10); - const ranking = usesRanking && match[3] ? parseInt(match[3], 10) : null; + const firstNumber = parseInt(match[2], 10); + const parsedAsRankOnly = usesRanking && allowsRankOnly && !match[3] && firstNumber < 500; + const elo = parsedAsRankOnly ? null : firstNumber; + const ranking = parsedAsRankOnly + ? firstNumber + : usesRanking && match[3] + ? parseInt(match[3], 10) + : null; - if (isNaN(elo) || elo < 500 || elo > 5000) continue; + const validElo = elo !== null && !isNaN(elo) && elo >= 500 && elo <= 5000; + const validRanking = ranking !== null && !isNaN(ranking) && ranking > 0; + if (!validElo && !(allowsRankOnly && validRanking)) continue; const participant = findParticipantMatch(inputName); if (participant && !seen.has(participant.id)) { @@ -371,9 +386,9 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { const newRanks = { ...rankValues }; const newWins = { ...winsValues }; for (const m of parseResults.matched) { - newElos[m.participantId] = m.elo.toString(); + if (m.elo !== null) newElos[m.participantId] = m.elo.toString(); if (m.ranking !== null) newRanks[m.participantId] = m.ranking.toString(); - if (inputMode === 'projectedWins' && simulatorConfig) { + if (inputMode === 'projectedWins' && simulatorConfig && m.elo !== null) { newWins[m.participantId] = (simulatorConfig.projectionInput === 'tablePoints' ? eloToProjectedTablePoints(m.elo, simulatorConfig.seasonGames, simulatorConfig.parityFactor, simulatorConfig.averageOpponentElo) : eloToProjectedWins(m.elo, simulatorConfig.seasonGames, simulatorConfig.parityFactor, simulatorConfig.averageOpponentElo) @@ -390,6 +405,8 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { const isSubmitting = navigation.state === 'submitting'; const simulatorType = sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType ?? null; const rankLabel = rankingLabel(simulatorType); + const allowsRankOnly = RANK_ONLY_SIMULATOR_TYPES.has(simulatorType ?? ''); + const participantLabel = simulatorType === 'college_hockey_bracket' ? 'Team' : 'Player'; // When ranking is available, sort by rank ascending, then unranked alphabetically const sortedParticipants = usesRanking @@ -446,8 +463,12 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { ) : usesRanking ? ( <> Paste one entry per line. Format:{' '} - Name, Elo, {rankLabel} (ranking is optional — omit it and the simulator - will use Elo order for seeding). Names are fuzzy-matched to participants. + {allowsRankOnly ? ( + <>Use Name, {rankLabel} or Name, Elo, {rankLabel}. Elo is optional when NPI rank is present. + ) : ( + <>Use Name, Elo, {rankLabel} (ranking is optional — omit it and the simulator will use Elo order for seeding). + )}{' '} + Names are fuzzy-matched to participants. ) : ( <> @@ -465,10 +486,14 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { ? `Team Name, 76.5\nTeam Name, 68.0\nTeam Name, 54.5` : `Team Name, 15.6\nTeam Name, 14.5\nTeam Name, 13.8` : usesRanking - ? simulatorType === 'cs2_major_qualifying_points' - ? `Natus Vincere, 1850, 1\nFaZe Clan, 1820, 2\nVitality, 1810, 3` - : `Luke Littler, 2099, 1\nMichael van Gerwen, 1950, 2\nLuke Humphries, 1947, 3` - : `Judd Trump, 2594\nRonnie O'Sullivan, 2441\nMark Selby, 2432` + ? simulatorType === 'college_hockey_bracket' + ? `Denver, 1\nBoston College, 2\nMichigan State, 1650, 3` + : simulatorType === 'cs2_major_qualifying_points' + ? `Natus Vincere, 1850, 1\nFaZe Clan, 1820, 2\nVitality, 1810, 3` + : `Luke Littler, 2099, 1\nMichael van Gerwen, 1950, 2\nLuke Humphries, 1947, 3` + : `Judd Trump, 2594 +Ronnie O'Sullivan, 2441 +Mark Selby, 2432` } value={bulkText} onChange={e => { setBulkText(e.target.value); setParseResults(null); }} @@ -492,7 +517,7 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
{m.inputName} - {m.name} → Elo {m.elo} + {m.name} → {m.elo !== null ? `Elo ${m.elo}` : 'No Elo'} {usesRanking && m.ranking !== null ? `, ${rankLabel} #${m.ranking}` : ''}
@@ -512,7 +537,7 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
{u.inputName} - Elo {u.elo} + {u.elo !== null ? `Elo ${u.elo}` : 'No Elo'} {usesRanking && u.ranking !== null ? `, ${rankLabel} #${u.ranking}` : ''}
@@ -538,15 +563,15 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { {inputMode === 'projectedWins' ? `${projectionLabel} (out of ${projectionMax || '?'})` : usesRanking - ? `Player Elo & ${rankLabel}s` - : 'Player Elo Ratings'} + ? `${participantLabel} Elo${allowsRankOnly ? ' (optional)' : ''} & ${rankLabel}s` + : `${participantLabel} Elo Ratings`} {inputMode === 'projectedWins' ? `Enter each team's projected total season ${projectionUnit}. Converted to Elo automatically. Saving will run the simulation and update expected values.` : usesRanking - ? `Enter each player's Elo and ${rankLabel}. Saving will automatically run the simulation and update expected values.` - : 'Enter each player\'s current Elo rating. Saving will automatically run the simulation and update expected values.'} + ? `Enter each ${participantLabel.toLowerCase()}'s Elo${allowsRankOnly ? ' (optional)' : ''} and ${rankLabel}. Saving will automatically run the simulation and update expected values.` + : `Enter each ${participantLabel.toLowerCase()}'s current Elo rating. Saving will automatically run the simulation and update expected values.`} @@ -554,7 +579,7 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { {usesRanking && inputMode === 'elo' && (
- Player + {participantLabel} Elo {rankLabel} #
@@ -603,7 +628,7 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { type="number" id={`elo_${participant.id}`} name={`elo_${participant.id}`} - placeholder={usesRanking ? '1800' : '2450'} + placeholder={usesRanking ? (allowsRankOnly ? 'optional' : '1800') : '2450'} value={eloValues[participant.id] ?? ''} onChange={e => setEloValues(prev => ({ ...prev, [participant.id]: e.target.value })) @@ -664,7 +689,7 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() { )} {usesRanking && inputMode === 'elo' && (
- {rankLabel} is optional — if omitted, the simulator uses Elo order for seeding. + {rankLabel} is optional — if omitted, the simulator uses Elo order for seeding. {allowsRankOnly ? 'For college hockey, Elo is optional when an NPI rank is entered.' : ''}
)} {inputMode === 'projectedWins' && simulatorConfig && ( diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/college-hockey-simulator.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/college-hockey-simulator.test.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..af50fa7 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/college-hockey-simulator.test.ts @@ -0,0 +1,204 @@ +import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach, type MockInstance } from "vitest"; +import { + buildCollegeHockeyTeams, + CollegeHockeySimulator, + npiRankSelectionWeight, + npiRankToElo, +} from "../college-hockey-simulator"; + +vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({ + database: vi.fn(), +})); + +const IDS = Array.from({ length: 16 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`); +const POOL_IDS = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`); + +function makeParticipants(ids: string[]) { + return ids.map((id) => ({ id })); +} + +function makeEvRows(ids: string[]) { + return ids.map((participantId, i) => ({ + participantId, + sourceElo: 1700 - i * 20, + sourceOdds: null, + worldRanking: i + 1, + })); +} + +function makeMatch(round: string, matchNumber: number, p1?: string, p2?: string, winner?: string, loser?: string) { + return { + id: `${round}-${matchNumber}`, + scoringEventId: "event-1", + round, + templateRound: null, + matchNumber, + participant1Id: p1 ?? null, + participant2Id: p2 ?? null, + winnerId: winner ?? null, + loserId: loser ?? null, + isComplete: Boolean(winner), + participant1Score: null, + participant2Score: null, + isScoring: round !== "Regional Semifinals", + seedInfo: null, + createdAt: new Date(), + updatedAt: new Date(), + }; +} + +function makeCompletedBracket() { + const r16Winners = IDS.slice(0, 8); + const qfWinners = IDS.slice(0, 4); + const sfWinners = IDS.slice(0, 2); + + return [ + ...Array.from({ length: 8 }, (_, i) => + makeMatch("Regional Semifinals", i + 1, IDS[i], IDS[15 - i], r16Winners[i], IDS[15 - i]) + ), + ...Array.from({ length: 4 }, (_, i) => + makeMatch("Regional Finals", i + 1, r16Winners[i * 2], r16Winners[i * 2 + 1], qfWinners[i], r16Winners[i * 2 + 1]) + ), + ...Array.from({ length: 2 }, (_, i) => + makeMatch("Frozen Four Semifinals", i + 1, qfWinners[i * 2], qfWinners[i * 2 + 1], sfWinners[i], qfWinners[i * 2 + 1]) + ), + makeMatch("National Championship", 1, sfWinners[0], sfWinners[1], sfWinners[0], sfWinners[1]), + ]; +} + +function makeBracketWithStaleFutureSlots() { + return [ + ...Array.from({ length: 8 }, (_, i) => + makeMatch("Regional Semifinals", i + 1, IDS[i], IDS[15 - i]) + ), + // These incomplete downstream slots intentionally contain stale participants. + // The simulator should ignore them and use the simulated/completed upstream winners. + makeMatch("Regional Finals", 1, "team-9", "team-10"), + makeMatch("Regional Finals", 2, "team-11", "team-12"), + makeMatch("Regional Finals", 3, "team-13", "team-14"), + makeMatch("Regional Finals", 4, "team-15", "team-16"), + makeMatch("Frozen Four Semifinals", 1), + makeMatch("Frozen Four Semifinals", 2), + makeMatch("National Championship", 1), + ]; +} + +describe("college hockey input helpers", () => { + it("maps better NPI ranks to higher Elo ratings", () => { + expect(npiRankToElo(1, 64)).toBeGreaterThan(npiRankToElo(16, 64)); + }); + + it("maps better NPI ranks to higher Zipf selection weights", () => { + expect(npiRankSelectionWeight(1)).toBeGreaterThan(npiRankSelectionWeight(10)); + }); + + it("builds team strength from admin-editable NPI rank when Elo is absent", () => { + const teams = buildCollegeHockeyTeams(["one", "two"], [ + { participantId: "one", sourceElo: null, sourceOdds: null, worldRanking: 1 }, + { participantId: "two", sourceElo: null, sourceOdds: null, worldRanking: 20 }, + ]); + + expect(teams[0].elo).toBeGreaterThan(teams[1].elo); + expect(teams[0].selectionWeight).toBeGreaterThan(teams[1].selectionWeight); + }); + + it("uses NPI rank before Elo for seeding when both are present", () => { + const teams = buildCollegeHockeyTeams(["strong-elo", "better-npi"], [ + { participantId: "strong-elo", sourceElo: 1800, sourceOdds: null, worldRanking: 12 }, + { participantId: "better-npi", sourceElo: 1500, sourceOdds: null, worldRanking: 2 }, + ]); + + const byId = new Map(teams.map((team) => [team.participantId, team])); + expect(byId.get("better-npi")?.seedScore).toBeGreaterThan(byId.get("strong-elo")?.seedScore ?? 0); + }); + + it("gives no-odds teams a fallback field-selection weight when odds are partial", () => { + const teams = buildCollegeHockeyTeams(["with-odds", "no-odds"], [ + { participantId: "with-odds", sourceElo: null, sourceOdds: 200, worldRanking: 1 }, + { participantId: "no-odds", sourceElo: null, sourceOdds: null, worldRanking: 2 }, + ]); + + const noOdds = teams.find((team) => team.participantId === "no-odds"); + expect(noOdds?.selectionWeight).toBeGreaterThan(0); + }); +}); + +describe("CollegeHockeySimulator", () => { + let mockDb: { + query: { + scoringEvents: { findFirst: MockInstance }; + playoffMatches: { findMany: MockInstance }; + }; + select: MockInstance; + }; + let selectCallCount: number; + + beforeEach(async () => { + selectCallCount = 0; + const { database } = await import("~/database/context"); + mockDb = { + query: { + scoringEvents: { findFirst: vi.fn() }, + playoffMatches: { findMany: vi.fn() }, + }, + select: vi.fn(), + }; + (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb); + }); + + function setupPreBracket(ids: string[]) { + mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null); + mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => { + const data = selectCallCount++ === 0 ? makeParticipants(ids) : makeEvRows(ids); + return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) }; + }); + } + + function setupExistingBracket(matches = makeCompletedBracket()) { + mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue({ id: "event-1" }); + mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue(matches); + mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => ({ + from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(makeEvRows(IDS)) }), + })); + } + + it("simulates a pre-bracket 20-team pool and returns all participants", async () => { + setupPreBracket(POOL_IDS); + const results = await new CollegeHockeySimulator().simulate("season-1"); + + expect(results).toHaveLength(20); + expect(results.every((r) => r.source === "college_hockey_monte_carlo")).toBe(true); + }); + + it("normalizes champion and finalist probability buckets", async () => { + setupPreBracket(IDS); + const results = await new CollegeHockeySimulator().simulate("season-1"); + + expect(results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0)).toBeCloseTo(1, 1); + expect(results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probSecond, 0)).toBeCloseTo(1, 1); + }); + + it("honors completed results in an existing Frozen Four bracket", async () => { + setupExistingBracket(); + const results = await new CollegeHockeySimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const byId = new Map(results.map((result) => [result.participantId, result])); + + expect(byId.get("team-1")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBe(1); + expect(byId.get("team-2")?.probabilities.probSecond).toBe(1); + }); + + it("ignores stale future-round slots when upstream rounds are unresolved", async () => { + setupExistingBracket(makeBracketWithStaleFutureSlots()); + const randomSpy = vi.spyOn(Math, "random").mockReturnValue(0); + + try { + const results = await new CollegeHockeySimulator().simulate("season-1"); + const byId = new Map(results.map((result) => [result.participantId, result])); + + expect(byId.get("team-1")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBe(1); + expect(byId.get("team-9")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBe(0); + } finally { + randomSpy.mockRestore(); + } + }); +}); diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/simulator-config.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/simulator-config.test.ts index fb7f0d8..d5b9f08 100644 --- a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/simulator-config.test.ts +++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/simulator-config.test.ts @@ -45,6 +45,10 @@ describe("simulator-config", () => { expect(getSimulatorConfig("darts_bracket")).toBeNull(); }); + it("returns null for college_hockey_bracket", () => { + expect(getSimulatorConfig("college_hockey_bracket")).toBeNull(); + }); + it("returns null for playoff_bracket", () => { expect(getSimulatorConfig("playoff_bracket")).toBeNull(); }); @@ -66,5 +70,9 @@ describe("simulator-config", () => { it("returns false for darts_bracket", () => { expect(supportsProjectedWins("darts_bracket")).toBe(false); }); + + it("returns false for college_hockey_bracket", () => { + expect(supportsProjectedWins("college_hockey_bracket")).toBe(false); + }); }); }); diff --git a/app/services/simulations/college-hockey-simulator.ts b/app/services/simulations/college-hockey-simulator.ts new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0dd4553 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/services/simulations/college-hockey-simulator.ts @@ -0,0 +1,423 @@ +/** + * NCAA Men's College Hockey Tournament Simulator + * + * Supports two modes with admin-editable inputs only: + * 1. Pre-bracket mode: samples a 16-team tournament field from all season + * participants using futures odds, NPI rank, and/or Elo entered in Admin. + * 2. Bracket-aware mode: when a 16-team playoff bracket exists, simulates the + * actual bracket and honors completed match results. + * + * No team ratings are hardcoded. Strength comes from season_participant_expected_values: + * - sourceElo: optional direct Elo / admin power rating + * - worldRanking: optional NPI rank (1 = best) + * - sourceOdds: optional American championship futures odds + */ + +import { database } from "~/database/context"; +import { and, eq, inArray } from "drizzle-orm"; +import * as schema from "~/database/schema"; +import { + convertAmericanOddsToProbability, + convertFuturesToElo, + eloWinProbabilityWithParity, +} from "~/services/probability-engine"; +import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types"; + +const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000; +const BRACKET_SIZE = 16; +const HOCKEY_PARITY_FACTOR = 850; +const DEFAULT_ELO = 1500; +const RANK_ELO_SCALE = 125; +const RANK_ZIPF_EXPONENT = 1.1; +const ODDS_ELO_WEIGHT = 0.25; +const DIRECT_ELO_WEIGHT = 1 - ODDS_ELO_WEIGHT; +const COLLEGE_HOCKEY_TEMPLATE_ID = "college_hockey_16"; + +const ROUND_OF_16_NAMES = new Set(["Round of 16", "Regional Semifinals"]); +const QUARTERFINAL_NAMES = new Set(["Quarterfinals", "Regional Finals"]); +const SEMIFINAL_NAMES = new Set(["Semifinals", "Frozen Four Semifinals"]); +const FINAL_NAMES = new Set(["Finals", "National Championship"]); + +interface Team { + participantId: string; + elo: number; + seedScore: number; + oddsProb: number; + selectionWeight: number; +} + +interface EvInputRow { + participantId: string; + sourceElo: number | null; + sourceOdds: number | null; + worldRanking: number | null; +} + +interface PlacementCounts { + champion: number; + finalist: number; + semifinalLoser: number; + quarterfinalLoser: number; +} + +type PlayoffMatch = typeof schema.playoffMatches.$inferSelect; + +export function npiRankToElo(rank: number, fieldSize: number): number { + if (!Number.isFinite(rank) || rank <= 0) return DEFAULT_ELO; + const safeFieldSize = Math.max(fieldSize, BRACKET_SIZE); + return Math.round(DEFAULT_ELO + RANK_ELO_SCALE * Math.log(safeFieldSize / rank)); +} + +export function npiRankSelectionWeight(rank: number | null): number { + if (!rank || rank <= 0) return 0; + return 1 / Math.pow(rank, RANK_ZIPF_EXPONENT); +} + +function normalizeOdds(evRows: EvInputRow[]): Map { + const raw = new Map(); + for (const row of evRows) { + if (row.sourceOdds !== null) { + raw.set(row.participantId, convertAmericanOddsToProbability(row.sourceOdds)); + } + } + + const sum = [...raw.values()].reduce((acc, p) => acc + p, 0); + const normalized = new Map(); + if (sum <= 0) return normalized; + + for (const [id, prob] of raw) normalized.set(id, prob / sum); + return normalized; +} + +function buildOddsEloMap(evRows: EvInputRow[]): Map { + const oddsInput = evRows + .filter((row) => row.sourceOdds !== null) + .map((row) => ({ participantId: row.participantId, odds: row.sourceOdds ?? 0 })); + + if (oddsInput.length < 2) return new Map(); + return convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american", { + exponent: 0.33, + eloMin: 1325, + eloMax: 1725, + }); +} + +export function buildCollegeHockeyTeams( + participantIds: string[], + evRows: EvInputRow[] +): Team[] { + const evById = new Map(evRows.map((row) => [row.participantId, row])); + const normalizedOdds = normalizeOdds(evRows); + const oddsEloMap = buildOddsEloMap(evRows); + const hasOdds = normalizedOdds.size > 0; + const hasAnyRank = evRows.some((row) => row.worldRanking !== null); + const hasAnyDirectElo = evRows.some((row) => row.sourceElo !== null); + + const teams: Team[] = participantIds.map((participantId) => { + const ev = evById.get(participantId); + const rankElo = ev?.worldRanking ? npiRankToElo(ev.worldRanking, participantIds.length) : null; + const baseElo = ev?.sourceElo ?? rankElo ?? oddsEloMap.get(participantId) ?? DEFAULT_ELO; + const oddsElo = oddsEloMap.get(participantId); + const elo = oddsElo !== undefined && ((ev?.sourceElo !== null && ev?.sourceElo !== undefined) || rankElo !== null) + ? Math.round(DIRECT_ELO_WEIGHT * baseElo + ODDS_ELO_WEIGHT * oddsElo) + : baseElo; + + return { + participantId, + elo, + seedScore: rankElo ?? ev?.sourceElo ?? elo, + oddsProb: normalizedOdds.get(participantId) ?? 0, + selectionWeight: 0, + }; + }); + + const maxElo = Math.max(...teams.map((team) => team.elo)); + const fallbackWeights = new Map(); + for (const team of teams) { + const rank = evById.get(team.participantId)?.worldRanking ?? null; + const fallbackWeight = hasAnyRank + ? npiRankSelectionWeight(rank) + : hasAnyDirectElo + ? Math.exp((team.elo - maxElo) / 140) + : 1; + fallbackWeights.set(team.participantId, fallbackWeight > 0 ? fallbackWeight : 0.01); + } + + if (hasOdds) { + const fallbackTotal = [...fallbackWeights.values()].reduce((sum, weight) => sum + weight, 0); + for (const team of teams) { + const fallbackShare = (fallbackWeights.get(team.participantId) ?? 0.01) / fallbackTotal; + team.selectionWeight = team.oddsProb + 0.1 * fallbackShare; + } + } else { + for (const team of teams) team.selectionWeight = fallbackWeights.get(team.participantId) ?? 1; + } + + return teams; +} + +function simGame(team1: Team, team2: Team): { winner: Team; loser: Team } { + const p1Wins = Math.random() < eloWinProbabilityWithParity(team1.elo, team2.elo, HOCKEY_PARITY_FACTOR); + return p1Wins ? { winner: team1, loser: team2 } : { winner: team2, loser: team1 }; +} + +function bump(counts: Map, id: string, key: keyof PlacementCounts): void { + const entry = counts.get(id); + if (entry) entry[key]++; +} + +function sampleField(pool: Team[], n: number): Team[] { + const remaining = [...pool]; + const selected: Team[] = []; + + for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) { + const totalWeight = remaining.reduce((sum, team) => sum + team.selectionWeight, 0); + let r = Math.random() * totalWeight; + let index = 0; + for (; index < remaining.length - 1; index++) { + r -= remaining[index].selectionWeight; + if (r <= 0) break; + } + selected.push(remaining[index]); + remaining.splice(index, 1); + } + + return seedField(selected); +} + +function seedField(teams: Team[]): Team[] { + return [...teams].toSorted((a, b) => b.seedScore - a.seedScore || b.elo - a.elo); +} + +function simulateSeeded16TeamBracket(teams: Team[], counts: Map): void { + const r16Pairs: Array<[number, number]> = [ + [0, 15], [7, 8], [4, 11], [3, 12], [5, 10], [2, 13], [6, 9], [1, 14], + ]; + + const r16Winners = r16Pairs.map(([a, b]) => simGame(teams[a], teams[b]).winner); + + const qfWinners: Team[] = []; + for (let i = 0; i < 4; i++) { + const result = simGame(r16Winners[i * 2], r16Winners[i * 2 + 1]); + qfWinners.push(result.winner); + bump(counts, result.loser.participantId, "quarterfinalLoser"); + } + + const sf1 = simGame(qfWinners[0], qfWinners[1]); + const sf2 = simGame(qfWinners[2], qfWinners[3]); + bump(counts, sf1.loser.participantId, "semifinalLoser"); + bump(counts, sf2.loser.participantId, "semifinalLoser"); + + const final = simGame(sf1.winner, sf2.winner); + bump(counts, final.winner.participantId, "champion"); + bump(counts, final.loser.participantId, "finalist"); +} + +function findRound(matches: PlayoffMatch[], names: Set): PlayoffMatch[] { + return matches + .filter((match) => names.has(match.round) || (match.templateRound ? names.has(match.templateRound) : false)) + .toSorted((a, b) => a.matchNumber - b.matchNumber); +} + +function completedLoser(match: PlayoffMatch): string { + if (match.loserId) return match.loserId; + if (match.participant1Id === match.winnerId && match.participant2Id) return match.participant2Id; + if (match.participant2Id === match.winnerId && match.participant1Id) return match.participant1Id; + throw new Error(`Completed ${match.round} match ${match.matchNumber} is missing a loser.`); +} + +function getTeam(teamById: Map, participantId: string): Team { + const team = teamById.get(participantId); + if (!team) throw new Error(`Participant ${participantId} is missing a saved rating row.`); + return team; +} + +function simulateMatchFromIds( + p1: string, + p2: string, + match: PlayoffMatch | undefined, + teamById: Map +): { winner: Team; loser: Team } { + if (match?.isComplete && match.winnerId) { + const loserId = completedLoser(match); + return { winner: getTeam(teamById, match.winnerId), loser: getTeam(teamById, loserId) }; + } + return simGame(getTeam(teamById, p1), getTeam(teamById, p2)); +} + +function simulateExistingBracket( + rounds: { r16: PlayoffMatch[]; qf: PlayoffMatch[]; sf: PlayoffMatch[]; final: PlayoffMatch }, + teamById: Map, + counts: Map +): void { + const r16Winners: Team[] = []; + for (let i = 0; i < 8; i++) { + const match = rounds.r16[i]; + if (!match.participant1Id || !match.participant2Id) { + throw new Error(`${match.round} match ${match.matchNumber} is missing participants.`); + } + r16Winners.push(simulateMatchFromIds(match.participant1Id, match.participant2Id, match, teamById).winner); + } + + const qfWinners: Team[] = []; + for (let i = 0; i < 4; i++) { + const match = rounds.qf[i]; + const p1 = r16Winners[i * 2]?.participantId; + const p2 = r16Winners[i * 2 + 1]?.participantId; + if (!p1 || !p2) throw new Error(`${match.round} match ${match.matchNumber} cannot resolve participants.`); + const result = simulateMatchFromIds(p1, p2, match, teamById); + qfWinners.push(result.winner); + bump(counts, result.loser.participantId, "quarterfinalLoser"); + } + + const sfWinners: Team[] = []; + for (let i = 0; i < 2; i++) { + const match = rounds.sf[i]; + const p1 = qfWinners[i * 2]?.participantId; + const p2 = qfWinners[i * 2 + 1]?.participantId; + if (!p1 || !p2) throw new Error(`${match.round} match ${match.matchNumber} cannot resolve participants.`); + const result = simulateMatchFromIds(p1, p2, match, teamById); + sfWinners.push(result.winner); + bump(counts, result.loser.participantId, "semifinalLoser"); + } + + const p1 = sfWinners[0]?.participantId; + const p2 = sfWinners[1]?.participantId; + if (!p1 || !p2) throw new Error(`${rounds.final.round} match ${rounds.final.matchNumber} cannot resolve participants.`); + const final = simulateMatchFromIds(p1, p2, rounds.final, teamById); + bump(counts, final.winner.participantId, "champion"); + bump(counts, final.loser.participantId, "finalist"); +} + +function toResults(participantIds: string[], counts: Map): SimulationResult[] { + const results = participantIds.map((participantId) => { + const c = counts.get(participantId) ?? { champion: 0, finalist: 0, semifinalLoser: 0, quarterfinalLoser: 0 }; + const sf = c.semifinalLoser / (2 * NUM_SIMULATIONS); + const qf = c.quarterfinalLoser / (4 * NUM_SIMULATIONS); + return { + participantId, + probabilities: { + probFirst: c.champion / NUM_SIMULATIONS, + probSecond: c.finalist / NUM_SIMULATIONS, + probThird: sf, + probFourth: sf, + probFifth: qf, + probSixth: qf, + probSeventh: qf, + probEighth: qf, + }, + source: "college_hockey_monte_carlo", + }; + }); + + for (const key of ["probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth", "probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth"] as const) { + const colSum = results.reduce((sum, result) => sum + result.probabilities[key], 0); + const residual = 1 - colSum; + if (Math.abs(residual) > 0 && Math.abs(residual) < 1e-9) { + const maxResult = results.reduce((best, result) => + result.probabilities[key] > best.probabilities[key] ? result : best + ); + maxResult.probabilities[key] += residual; + } + } + + return results; +} + +export class CollegeHockeySimulator implements Simulator { + async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise { + const db = database(); + + const bracketEvent = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({ + where: and( + eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId), + eq(schema.scoringEvents.eventType, "playoff_game") + ), + }); + + const bracketMatches = bracketEvent + ? await db.query.playoffMatches.findMany({ + where: eq(schema.playoffMatches.scoringEventId, bracketEvent.id), + orderBy: (m, { asc }) => [asc(m.matchNumber)], + }) + : []; + + const existingBracket = this.getExistingBracketRounds(bracketMatches); + const participantIds = existingBracket + ? this.getParticipantIdsFromBracket(existingBracket) + : (await db + .select({ id: schema.seasonParticipants.id }) + .from(schema.seasonParticipants) + .where(eq(schema.seasonParticipants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId))).map((row) => row.id); + + if (participantIds.length < BRACKET_SIZE) { + throw new Error( + `College hockey simulator requires at least ${BRACKET_SIZE} participants, found ${participantIds.length}.` + ); + } + + const evRows = await db + .select({ + participantId: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.participantId, + sourceElo: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceElo, + sourceOdds: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sourceOdds, + worldRanking: schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.worldRanking, + }) + .from(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues) + .where(inArray(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.participantId, participantIds)); + + const teams = buildCollegeHockeyTeams(participantIds, evRows); + const teamById = new Map(teams.map((team) => [team.participantId, team])); + const counts = new Map( + participantIds.map((id) => [id, { champion: 0, finalist: 0, semifinalLoser: 0, quarterfinalLoser: 0 }]) + ); + + if (existingBracket) { + for (let i = 0; i < NUM_SIMULATIONS; i++) { + simulateExistingBracket(existingBracket, teamById, counts); + } + } else { + const preBracketMode = participantIds.length > BRACKET_SIZE; + const deterministicField = preBracketMode ? null : seedField(teams); + for (let i = 0; i < NUM_SIMULATIONS; i++) { + const field = preBracketMode ? sampleField(teams, BRACKET_SIZE) : deterministicField ?? []; + simulateSeeded16TeamBracket(field, counts); + } + } + + return toResults(participantIds, counts); + } + + private getExistingBracketRounds(matches: PlayoffMatch[]): { r16: PlayoffMatch[]; qf: PlayoffMatch[]; sf: PlayoffMatch[]; final: PlayoffMatch } | null { + if (matches.length === 0) return null; + + const r16 = findRound(matches, ROUND_OF_16_NAMES); + const qf = findRound(matches, QUARTERFINAL_NAMES); + const sf = findRound(matches, SEMIFINAL_NAMES); + const final = findRound(matches, FINAL_NAMES); + + if (r16.length === 0 && qf.length === 0 && sf.length === 0 && final.length === 0) return null; + if (r16.length !== 8 || qf.length !== 4 || sf.length !== 2 || final.length !== 1) { + throw new Error( + `College hockey bracket must have 8 Round of 16, 4 Quarterfinal, 2 Semifinal, and 1 Final match. ` + + `Found ${r16.length}/${qf.length}/${sf.length}/${final.length}.` + ); + } + + return { r16, qf, sf, final: final[0] }; + } + + private getParticipantIdsFromBracket(rounds: { r16: PlayoffMatch[]; qf: PlayoffMatch[]; sf: PlayoffMatch[]; final: PlayoffMatch }): string[] { + const ids = new Set(); + const allMatches = [...rounds.r16, ...rounds.qf, ...rounds.sf, rounds.final]; + for (const match of allMatches) { + if (match.participant1Id) ids.add(match.participant1Id); + if (match.participant2Id) ids.add(match.participant2Id); + if (match.winnerId) ids.add(match.winnerId); + if (match.loserId) ids.add(match.loserId); + } + return [...ids]; + } +} + +export { COLLEGE_HOCKEY_TEMPLATE_ID }; diff --git a/app/services/simulations/registry.ts b/app/services/simulations/registry.ts index fcd8fef..95d2769 100644 --- a/app/services/simulations/registry.ts +++ b/app/services/simulations/registry.ts @@ -27,6 +27,7 @@ import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator"; import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator"; import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "./ncaa-football-simulator"; import { LLWSSimulator } from "./llws-simulator"; +import { CollegeHockeySimulator } from "./college-hockey-simulator"; import { BracktSimulator } from "./brackt-simulator"; export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [ @@ -51,6 +52,7 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [ "cs2_major_qualifying_points", "ncaa_football_bracket", "llws_bracket", + "college_hockey_bracket", "brackt", ] as const; @@ -166,6 +168,13 @@ const REGISTRY: Record Simul }, create: () => new LLWSSimulator(), }, + college_hockey_bracket: { + info: { + name: "Men's College Hockey Monte Carlo", + description: "Simulates the 16-team NCAA men's hockey tournament. Pre-bracket mode samples the field using admin-entered futures odds, NPI rank, and/or Elo; bracket mode honors the existing Frozen Four bracket and completed results.", + }, + create: () => new CollegeHockeySimulator(), + }, brackt: { info: { name: "Brackt Harville Model", diff --git a/app/services/simulations/simulator-config.ts b/app/services/simulations/simulator-config.ts index 4b2c122..962f21e 100644 --- a/app/services/simulations/simulator-config.ts +++ b/app/services/simulations/simulator-config.ts @@ -79,6 +79,7 @@ const CONFIG: Record = { cs2_major_qualifying_points: null, ncaa_football_bracket: null, llws_bracket: null, + college_hockey_bracket: null, brackt: null, }; diff --git a/database/schema.ts b/database/schema.ts index b7062e7..7f287d0 100644 --- a/database/schema.ts +++ b/database/schema.ts @@ -152,6 +152,7 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [ "cs2_major_qualifying_points", "ncaa_football_bracket", "llws_bracket", + "college_hockey_bracket", "brackt", ]); diff --git a/drizzle/0098_lucky_sabra.sql b/drizzle/0098_lucky_sabra.sql new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c81d0f7 --- /dev/null +++ b/drizzle/0098_lucky_sabra.sql @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'college_hockey_bracket' BEFORE 'brackt'; \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/drizzle/meta/0098_snapshot.json b/drizzle/meta/0098_snapshot.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..26c9172 --- /dev/null +++ b/drizzle/meta/0098_snapshot.json @@ -0,0 +1,5781 @@ +{ + "id": "4460c711-dd47-4304-a5f1-bb06ee00eddc", + "prevId": "6479447b-f5db-475d-8219-aaabb79549a9", + "version": "7", + "dialect": "postgresql", + "tables": { + "public.accounts": { + "name": "accounts", + "schema": "", + "columns": { + "id": { + "name": "id", + "type": "text", + "primaryKey": true, + "notNull": true + }, + "account_id": { + "name": "account_id", + "type": "text", + "primaryKey": false, + "notNull": true + }, + "provider_id": { + "name": "provider_id", + "type": "text", 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"public.tournament_status": { + "name": "tournament_status", + "schema": "public", + "values": [ + "scheduled", + "in_progress", + "completed" + ] + } + }, + "schemas": {}, + "sequences": {}, + "roles": {}, + "policies": {}, + "views": {}, + "_meta": { + "columns": {}, + "schemas": {}, + "tables": {} + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/drizzle/meta/_journal.json b/drizzle/meta/_journal.json index 052f09f..218b264 100644 --- a/drizzle/meta/_journal.json +++ b/drizzle/meta/_journal.json @@ -687,6 +687,13 @@ "when": 1778189247519, "tag": "0097_puzzling_spectrum", "breakpoints": true + }, + { + "idx": 98, + "version": "7", + "when": 1778261539567, + "tag": "0098_lucky_sabra", + "breakpoints": true } ] } \ No newline at end of file