Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)

Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).

- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
  in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
  Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
  probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/lib/bracket-templates.ts

@@ -633,6 +633,46 @@ export const FIFA_48: BracketTemplate = {
   ],
 };
 
+/**
+ * College Football Playoff (12 teams, 2024–present format)
+ * First Round: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9 (campus sites, no fantasy points)
+ * Quarterfinals: Seeds 1–4 (bye) vs first-round winners (scoring starts here)
+ * Semifinals: 4 → 2
+ * National Championship: 1 game
+ */
+export const CFP_12: BracketTemplate = {
+  id: "cfp_12",
+  name: "College Football Playoff (12 teams)",
+  totalTeams: 12,
+  scoringStartsAtRound: "Quarterfinals",
+  rounds: [
+    {
+      name: "First Round",
+      matchCount: 4,
+      feedsInto: "Quarterfinals",
+      isScoring: false, // 8 seeds play, top 4 have byes
+    },
+    {
+      name: "Quarterfinals",
+      matchCount: 4,
+      feedsInto: "Semifinals",
+      isScoring: true, // Losers share 5th–8th
+    },
+    {
+      name: "Semifinals",
+      matchCount: 2,
+      feedsInto: "National Championship",
+      isScoring: true, // Losers share 3rd–4th
+    },
+    {
+      name: "National Championship",
+      matchCount: 1,
+      feedsInto: null,
+      isScoring: true, // Winner 1st, loser 2nd
+    },
+  ],
+};
+
 /**
  * All available bracket templates
  */
@@ -646,6 +686,7 @@ export const BRACKET_TEMPLATES: Record<string, BracketTemplate> = {
   afl_10: AFL_10,
   fifa_48: FIFA_48,
   darts_128: DARTS_128,
+  cfp_12: CFP_12,
 };
 
 /**

app/models/__tests__/cfp-12-bracket.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
+import { CFP_12, BRACKET_TEMPLATES, getScoringRoundType } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
+
+describe("CFP_12 Bracket Template", () => {
+  describe("Template structure", () => {
+    it("has correct total teams", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.totalTeams).toBe(12);
+    });
+
+    it("has 4 rounds", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds).toHaveLength(4);
+    });
+
+    it("has correct round names", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[0].name).toBe("First Round");
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[1].name).toBe("Quarterfinals");
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[2].name).toBe("Semifinals");
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[3].name).toBe("National Championship");
+    });
+
+    it("has correct match counts per round", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[0].matchCount).toBe(4); // 8 seeds play, 4 byes
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[1].matchCount).toBe(4); // 8 → 4
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[2].matchCount).toBe(2); // 4 → 2
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[3].matchCount).toBe(1); // 2 → 1
+    });
+
+    it("has correct round advancement chain", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[0].feedsInto).toBe("Quarterfinals");
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[1].feedsInto).toBe("Semifinals");
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[2].feedsInto).toBe("National Championship");
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[3].feedsInto).toBeNull();
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("Scoring configuration", () => {
+    it("scoring starts at Quarterfinals", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.scoringStartsAtRound).toBe("Quarterfinals");
+    });
+
+    it("First Round is not scoring", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[0].isScoring).toBe(false);
+    });
+
+    it("Quarterfinals is scoring", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[1].isScoring).toBe(true);
+    });
+
+    it("Semifinals is scoring", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[2].isScoring).toBe(true);
+    });
+
+    it("National Championship is scoring", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.rounds[3].isScoring).toBe(true);
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("Template ID and registry", () => {
+    it("has id cfp_12", () => {
+      expect(CFP_12.id).toBe("cfp_12");
+    });
+
+    it("is registered in BRACKET_TEMPLATES", () => {
+      expect(BRACKET_TEMPLATES["cfp_12"]).toBeDefined();
+      expect(BRACKET_TEMPLATES["cfp_12"]).toBe(CFP_12);
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("getScoringRoundType", () => {
+    it("classifies Quarterfinals as quarterfinals (losers share 5th–8th)", () => {
+      expect(getScoringRoundType("Quarterfinals", CFP_12)).toBe("quarterfinals");
+    });
+
+    it("classifies Semifinals as semifinals (losers share 3rd–4th)", () => {
+      expect(getScoringRoundType("Semifinals", CFP_12)).toBe("semifinals");
+    });
+
+    it("classifies National Championship as finals", () => {
+      expect(getScoringRoundType("National Championship", CFP_12)).toBe("finals");
+    });
+
+    it("returns null for First Round (non-scoring)", () => {
+      expect(getScoringRoundType("First Round", CFP_12)).toBeNull();
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("Total matches", () => {
+    it("has 11 total matches across all rounds", () => {
+      const total = CFP_12.rounds.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.matchCount, 0);
+      expect(total).toBe(11); // 4 + 4 + 2 + 1
+    });
+  });
+});

app/models/playoff-match.ts

@@ -355,6 +355,11 @@ export async function generateBracketFromTemplate(
     return await generateAFL10Bracket(eventId, template, participantIds);
   }
 
+  // CFP 12 requires special handling for bye weeks (seeds 1–4 skip First Round)
+  if (templateId === "cfp_12") {
+    return await generateCFP12Bracket(eventId, template, participantIds);
+  }
+
   const matches: NewPlayoffMatch[] = [];
 
   // Generate matches for each round in the template
@@ -1069,3 +1074,97 @@ export async function assignParticipantsToKnockout(
     });
   }
 }
+
+/**
+ * Generate College Football Playoff 12-team bracket.
+ *
+ * First Round (seeds 5–12, 4 games, not scoring):
+ *   Match 1: 5 vs 12
+ *   Match 2: 6 vs 11
+ *   Match 3: 7 vs 10
+ *   Match 4: 8 vs 9
+ *
+ * Quarterfinals (4 games, scoring starts):
+ *   Match 1: 1 vs First Round match 4 winner (8/9)
+ *   Match 2: 4 vs First Round match 1 winner (5/12)
+ *   Match 3: 3 vs First Round match 2 winner (6/11)
+ *   Match 4: 2 vs First Round match 3 winner (7/10)
+ *
+ * Semifinals and National Championship: TBD vs TBD
+ */
+async function generateCFP12Bracket(
+  eventId: string,
+  template: BracketTemplate,
+  participantIds?: string[]
+): Promise<PlayoffMatch[]> {
+  const matches: NewPlayoffMatch[] = [];
+
+  // First Round: seeds 5–12 (indices 4–11), top 4 (indices 0–3) have byes
+  const firstRoundSeeding: [number, number][] = [
+    [4, 11], // 5 vs 12
+    [5, 10], // 6 vs 11
+    [6, 9],  // 7 vs 10
+    [7, 8],  // 8 vs 9
+  ];
+
+  const firstRound = template.rounds[0]; // "First Round"
+  for (let i = 0; i < firstRoundSeeding.length; i++) {
+    const [s1, s2] = firstRoundSeeding[i];
+    matches.push({
+      scoringEventId: eventId,
+      round: firstRound.name,
+      matchNumber: i + 1,
+      participant1Id: participantIds ? participantIds[s1] : null,
+      participant2Id: participantIds ? participantIds[s2] : null,
+      isComplete: false,
+      isScoring: false,
+      templateRound: firstRound.name,
+      seedInfo: `${s1 + 1} vs ${s2 + 1}`,
+    });
+  }
+
+  // Quarterfinals: seeds 1–4 (indices 0–3) receive byes, face First Round winners
+  // Matchup order mirrors CFP bracket: 1 vs 8/9 winner, 4 vs 5/12 winner, etc.
+  const quarterfinalsSeeding: [number, string][] = [
+    [0, "1 vs TBD"], // 1 seed vs First Round match 4 winner (8v9)
+    [3, "4 vs TBD"], // 4 seed vs First Round match 1 winner (5v12)
+    [2, "3 vs TBD"], // 3 seed vs First Round match 2 winner (6v11)
+    [1, "2 vs TBD"], // 2 seed vs First Round match 3 winner (7v10)
+  ];
+
+  const quarterfinalsRound = template.rounds[1]; // "Quarterfinals"
+  for (let i = 0; i < quarterfinalsSeeding.length; i++) {
+    const [byeSeedIndex, seedInfo] = quarterfinalsSeeding[i];
+    matches.push({
+      scoringEventId: eventId,
+      round: quarterfinalsRound.name,
+      matchNumber: i + 1,
+      participant1Id: participantIds ? participantIds[byeSeedIndex] : null,
+      participant2Id: null, // Filled when First Round winner is known
+      isComplete: false,
+      isScoring: true,
+      templateRound: quarterfinalsRound.name,
+      seedInfo,
+    });
+  }
+
+  // Semifinals and National Championship: all TBD
+  for (let roundIndex = 2; roundIndex < template.rounds.length; roundIndex++) {
+    const round = template.rounds[roundIndex];
+    for (let i = 0; i < round.matchCount; i++) {
+      matches.push({
+        scoringEventId: eventId,
+        round: round.name,
+        matchNumber: i + 1,
+        participant1Id: null,
+        participant2Id: null,
+        isComplete: false,
+        isScoring: round.isScoring,
+        templateRound: round.name,
+        seedInfo: null,
+      });
+    }
+  }
+
+  return await createManyPlayoffMatches(matches);
+}

app/services/simulations/__tests__/ncaa-football-simulator.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,232 @@
+import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach, type MockInstance } from "vitest";
+import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "../ncaa-football-simulator";
+
+vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({
+  database: vi.fn(),
+}));
+
+// Use real implementations of pure math functions to avoid mock call accumulation
+// across 50k-iteration simulations. Only mock convertFuturesToElo (complex behavior).
+vi.mock("~/services/probability-engine", async (importOriginal) => {
+  const actual = await importOriginal() as Record<string, unknown>;
+  return {
+    ...actual,
+    convertFuturesToElo: vi.fn((oddsInput: { participantId: string; odds: number }[]) => {
+      return new Map(oddsInput.map((o, i) => [o.participantId, 1600 - i * 50]));
+    }),
+  };
+});
+
+// ─── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+const TEAM_IDS = Array.from({ length: 12 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`);
+
+/** Build EV rows with sourceElo ratings (descending — team-1 is best). */
+function makeEvRows(
+  ids: string[],
+  opts: { includeOdds?: boolean } = {}
+) {
+  return ids.map((participantId, i) => ({
+    participantId,
+    sourceElo: 1700 - i * 50, // 1700, 1650, 1600, …
+    sourceOdds: opts.includeOdds ? (i === 0 ? -200 : 300 + i * 50) : null,
+  }));
+}
+
+/** Build participant rows. */
+function makeParticipants(ids: string[]) {
+  return ids.map((id) => ({ id }));
+}
+
+// ─── Tests ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+describe("NCAAFootballSimulator", () => {
+  let mockDb: {
+    select: MockInstance;
+  };
+
+  // select() returns a chain: .from().where() → resolves to an array
+  // We need two calls: one for participants, one for EV rows.
+  let selectCallCount: number;
+
+  beforeEach(async () => {
+    selectCallCount = 0;
+    const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
+
+    mockDb = {
+      select: vi.fn(),
+    };
+
+    (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb);
+  });
+
+  function setupMockDb(
+    participantIds: string[],
+    opts: { includeOdds?: boolean } = {}
+  ) {
+    const participants = makeParticipants(participantIds);
+    const evRows = makeEvRows(participantIds, opts);
+
+    mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => {
+      const callIndex = selectCallCount++;
+      const data = callIndex === 0 ? participants : evRows;
+      return {
+        from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({
+          where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data),
+        }),
+      };
+    });
+  }
+
+  it("returns one result per participant", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    expect(results).toHaveLength(12);
+  });
+
+  it("all probabilities are between 0 and 1", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    for (const r of results) {
+      const p = r.probabilities;
+      expect(p.probFirst).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(p.probFirst).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
+      expect(p.probSecond).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0);
+      expect(p.probSecond).toBeLessThanOrEqual(1);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("top-rated team has highest champion probability", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
+    const team1Prob = byId.get("team-1")!.probabilities.probFirst;
+    const team12Prob = byId.get("team-12")!.probabilities.probFirst;
+
+    expect(team1Prob).toBeGreaterThan(team12Prob);
+  });
+
+  it("probFirst sums to approximately 1.0 across all teams", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
+    expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
+  });
+
+  it("probSecond sums to approximately 1.0 across all teams", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probSecond, 0);
+    expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
+  });
+
+  it("probThird equals probFourth for every team (tied SF placement)", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    for (const r of results) {
+      expect(r.probabilities.probThird).toBeCloseTo(r.probabilities.probFourth, 10);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for every team (tied QF placement)", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    for (const r of results) {
+      const p = r.probabilities;
+      expect(p.probFifth).toBeCloseTo(p.probSixth, 10);
+      expect(p.probSixth).toBeCloseTo(p.probSeventh, 10);
+      expect(p.probSeventh).toBeCloseTo(p.probEighth, 10);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("weakest team has very low champion probability", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    // team-12 (Elo 1150) vs team-1 (Elo 1700): team-12 should rarely win
+    const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
+    expect(byId.get("team-12")!.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.02);
+  });
+
+  it("source is cfp_monte_carlo", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    for (const r of results) {
+      expect(r.source).toBe("cfp_monte_carlo");
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("throws when no participants found", async () => {
+    mockDb.select.mockReturnValue({
+      from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({
+        where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue([]),
+      }),
+    });
+
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    await expect(sim.simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/No participants found/);
+  });
+
+  it("throws when fewer than 12 participants are provided", async () => {
+    const elevenTeams = TEAM_IDS.slice(0, 11);
+    let call = 0;
+    mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => {
+      const data = call++ === 0 ? makeParticipants(elevenTeams) : makeEvRows(elevenTeams);
+      return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) };
+    });
+
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    await expect(sim.simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/12 participants/);
+  });
+
+  it("uses futures odds when sourceOdds present (does not throw)", async () => {
+    setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS, { includeOdds: true });
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    // Should still return 12 results with valid probabilities
+    expect(results).toHaveLength(12);
+    const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
+    expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
+  });
+
+  it("teams outside top 12 have all-zero probabilities (15-team season)", async () => {
+    // 15 participants — only top 12 enter the bracket, bottom 3 stay at 0 EV
+    const fifteenTeams = Array.from({ length: 15 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`);
+    let call = 0;
+    mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => {
+      const data = call++ === 0 ? makeParticipants(fifteenTeams) : makeEvRows(fifteenTeams);
+      return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) };
+    });
+
+    const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
+    const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
+
+    expect(results).toHaveLength(15);
+
+    for (const id of ["team-13", "team-14", "team-15"]) {
+      const r = results.find((x) => x.participantId === id)!;
+      expect(r.probabilities.probFirst).toBe(0);
+      expect(r.probabilities.probSecond).toBe(0);
+      expect(r.probabilities.probThird).toBe(0);
+      expect(r.probabilities.probEighth).toBe(0);
+    }
+  });
+});

app/services/simulations/ncaa-football-simulator.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,280 @@
+/**
+ * NCAA Football CFP Simulator
+ *
+ * Monte Carlo simulation of the College Football Playoff (12-team format, 2024–present).
+ *
+ * Algorithm:
+ *   1. Load all participants for the sports season from DB
+ *   2. Load Elo/FPI ratings from participantExpectedValues.sourceElo
+ *      (entered via Admin → Elo Ratings page; use FPI, S&P+, or any Elo-scale rating)
+ *   3. If sourceOdds (American format) are also stored, blend the Elo-based and
+ *      odds-based per-game win probabilities: P = ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb
+ *   4. Sort teams by blended strength (descending) to assign seeds 1–12
+ *   5. Simulate 50,000 CFP brackets per the official seeding structure:
+ *        First Round (not scoring):  5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
+ *        Quarterfinals (scoring):    1 vs 8/9w, 4 vs 5/12w, 3 vs 6/11w, 2 vs 7/10w
+ *        Semifinals (scoring):       QF1w vs QF2w, QF3w vs QF4w
+ *        National Championship:      SF1w vs SF2w
+ *   6. Track placement counts per scoring tier
+ *   7. Convert counts to probability distributions
+ *
+ * Win probability: eloWinProbability() from probability-engine (standard 400-divisor Elo formula).
+ *
+ * Futures blending (when sourceOdds are present):
+ *   P(game) = ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb
+ *   ELO_WEIGHT = 0.6, ODDS_WEIGHT = 0.4
+ *   A slightly lower Elo weight than other sports (0.7) gives more influence to
+ *   Vegas championship odds, which are highly informative in college football.
+ *   Falls back to Elo-only when no sourceOdds are stored.
+ *
+ * Placement tiers → SimulationProbabilities mapping:
+ *   probFirst              = National Champion (1 per sim)
+ *   probSecond             = Championship game loser (1 per sim)
+ *   probThird / probFourth = Semifinal losers (2 per sim — split evenly)
+ *   probFifth–probEighth   = Quarterfinal losers (4 per sim — split evenly)
+ *   First Round losers     → all 0 (score 0 fantasy points)
+ *
+ * Admin setup:
+ *   1. Create a Sport with simulatorType = "ncaa_football_bracket"
+ *   2. Create a Sports Season and add 12 team participants
+ *   3. Enter FPI ratings via Admin → Elo Ratings (stored as sourceElo)
+ *   4. Optionally enter championship futures odds via Admin → Futures Odds (stored as sourceOdds)
+ *   5. Run simulation via Admin → Simulate
+ */
+
+import { database } from "~/database/context";
+import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
+import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
+import {
+  convertAmericanOddsToProbability,
+  convertFuturesToElo,
+  eloWinProbability,
+} from "~/services/probability-engine";
+import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
+
+// ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
+const BRACKET_SIZE = 12;
+
+/**
+ * Weight for the Elo-based probability component.
+ * Remaining (ODDS_WEIGHT) goes to the Vegas futures-derived component.
+ */
+const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.6;
+const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
+
+// ─── Types ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+interface Team {
+  participantId: string;
+  elo: number;
+  /** Normalized futures win probability (0–1). Used for blending when odds available. */
+  oddsProb: number;
+}
+
+// ─── Win probability helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * Blended win probability for team1 vs team2.
+ * When oddsProbs are both 0 (no futures data), falls back to pure Elo.
+ */
+function blendedWinProb(team1: Team, team2: Team): number {
+  const eloProbValue = eloWinProbability(team1.elo, team2.elo);
+
+  if (team1.oddsProb === 0 && team2.oddsProb === 0) {
+    return eloProbValue;
+  }
+
+  const oddsSum = team1.oddsProb + team2.oddsProb;
+  const oddsProbValue = oddsSum > 0 ? team1.oddsProb / oddsSum : 0.5;
+
+  return ELO_WEIGHT * eloProbValue + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProbValue;
+}
+
+function simGame(team1: Team, team2: Team): { winner: Team; loser: Team } {
+  const p1Wins = Math.random() < blendedWinProb(team1, team2);
+  return p1Wins
+    ? { winner: team1, loser: team2 }
+    : { winner: team2, loser: team1 };
+}
+
+// ─── Bracket simulation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+interface PlacementCounts {
+  champion: number;
+  finalist: number;
+  sfLoser: number;
+  qfLoser: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Simulate one full 12-team CFP bracket.
+ *
+ * Seeding (teams sorted best→worst, index 0 = seed 1):
+ *   First Round:    [4]v[11], [5]v[10], [6]v[9], [7]v[8]
+ *   Quarterfinals:  [0] vs fr4w, [3] vs fr1w, [2] vs fr2w, [1] vs fr3w
+ *   Semifinals:     qf1w vs qf2w, qf3w vs qf4w
+ *   Championship:   sf1w vs sf2w
+ */
+function simulateBracket(teams: Team[], counts: Map<string, PlacementCounts>): void {
+  // ── First Round (seeds 5–12) ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+  const fr1 = simGame(teams[4], teams[11]); // 5 vs 12
+  const fr2 = simGame(teams[5], teams[10]); // 6 vs 11
+  const fr3 = simGame(teams[6], teams[9]);  // 7 vs 10
+  const fr4 = simGame(teams[7], teams[8]);  // 8 vs 9
+
+  // ── Quarterfinals (seeds 1–4 get byes) ────────────────────────────────────
+  const qf1 = simGame(teams[0], fr4.winner); // 1 vs 8/9 winner
+  const qf2 = simGame(teams[3], fr1.winner); // 4 vs 5/12 winner
+  const qf3 = simGame(teams[2], fr2.winner); // 3 vs 6/11 winner
+  const qf4 = simGame(teams[1], fr3.winner); // 2 vs 7/10 winner
+
+  counts.get(qf1.loser.participantId)!.qfLoser++;
+  counts.get(qf2.loser.participantId)!.qfLoser++;
+  counts.get(qf3.loser.participantId)!.qfLoser++;
+  counts.get(qf4.loser.participantId)!.qfLoser++;
+
+  // ── Semifinals ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  const sf1 = simGame(qf1.winner, qf2.winner);
+  const sf2 = simGame(qf3.winner, qf4.winner);
+
+  counts.get(sf1.loser.participantId)!.sfLoser++;
+  counts.get(sf2.loser.participantId)!.sfLoser++;
+
+  // ── National Championship ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  const final = simGame(sf1.winner, sf2.winner);
+
+  counts.get(final.winner.participantId)!.champion++;
+  counts.get(final.loser.participantId)!.finalist++;
+}
+
+// ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
+  async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
+    const db = database();
+
+    // 1. Load all participants for this sports season.
+    const participants = await db
+      .select({ id: schema.participants.id })
+      .from(schema.participants)
+      .where(eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
+
+    if (participants.length === 0) {
+      throw new Error(`No participants found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}.`);
+    }
+
+    // 2. Load Elo/FPI ratings and optional futures odds in a single query.
+    const evRows = await db
+      .select({
+        participantId: schema.participantExpectedValues.participantId,
+        sourceElo: schema.participantExpectedValues.sourceElo,
+        sourceOdds: schema.participantExpectedValues.sourceOdds,
+      })
+      .from(schema.participantExpectedValues)
+      .where(eq(schema.participantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
+
+    // Build Elo and odds maps in a single pass over evRows.
+    const eloFromDb = new Map<string, number>();
+    const rawOddsProbs = new Map<string, number>();
+
+    for (const row of evRows) {
+      if (row.sourceElo !== null) {
+        eloFromDb.set(row.participantId, row.sourceElo);
+      }
+      if (row.sourceOdds !== null) {
+        rawOddsProbs.set(row.participantId, convertAmericanOddsToProbability(row.sourceOdds));
+      }
+    }
+
+    // 3. Build normalized odds probability map (vig removed).
+    //    If no sourceOdds, all teams get oddsProb = 0 → falls back to pure Elo.
+    let normalizedOddsMap = new Map<string, number>();
+
+    if (rawOddsProbs.size > 0) {
+      const rawSum = [...rawOddsProbs.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
+      for (const [id, prob] of rawOddsProbs) {
+        normalizedOddsMap.set(id, rawSum > 0 ? prob / rawSum : 0);
+      }
+
+      // Backfill Elo from futures odds for any team that has sourceOdds but no sourceElo.
+      if (eloFromDb.size < participants.length) {
+        const oddsInput = [...rawOddsProbs.keys()]
+          .filter((id) => !eloFromDb.has(id))
+          .map((id) => ({ participantId: id, odds: evRows.find((r) => r.participantId === id)!.sourceOdds! }));
+
+        if (oddsInput.length > 0) {
+          const oddsEloMap = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american");
+          for (const [id, elo] of oddsEloMap) {
+            eloFromDb.set(id, elo);
+          }
+        }
+      }
+    }
+
+    // 4. Build and seed team list (top 12 by blended strength, best→worst).
+    const allTeams: Team[] = participants.map((p) => ({
+      participantId: p.id,
+      elo: eloFromDb.get(p.id) ?? 1500,
+      oddsProb: normalizedOddsMap.get(p.id) ?? 0,
+    }));
+
+    // Normalize Elo to [0,1] range for the blended sort score.
+    const eloValues = allTeams.map((t) => t.elo);
+    const minElo = Math.min(...eloValues);
+    const eloRange = (Math.max(...eloValues) - minElo) || 1;
+
+    const seededTeams = [...allTeams].sort((a, b) => {
+      const aScore = ELO_WEIGHT * ((a.elo - minElo) / eloRange) + ODDS_WEIGHT * a.oddsProb;
+      const bScore = ELO_WEIGHT * ((b.elo - minElo) / eloRange) + ODDS_WEIGHT * b.oddsProb;
+      return bScore - aScore;
+    });
+
+    if (seededTeams.length < BRACKET_SIZE) {
+      throw new Error(
+        `CFP simulator requires ${BRACKET_SIZE} participants, found ${seededTeams.length}. ` +
+        `Add all teams to the sports season before running simulation.`
+      );
+    }
+    const bracketTeams = seededTeams.slice(0, BRACKET_SIZE);
+
+    // 5. Initialise placement count accumulators for all participants.
+    //    Teams outside the top 12 keep all zeros (0 EV).
+    const allParticipantIds = participants.map((p) => p.id);
+    const counts = new Map<string, PlacementCounts>(
+      allParticipantIds.map((id) => [id, { champion: 0, finalist: 0, sfLoser: 0, qfLoser: 0 }])
+    );
+
+    // 6. Run Monte Carlo simulations.
+    for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
+      simulateBracket(bracketTeams, counts);
+    }
+
+    // 7. Convert counts to probability distributions and return.
+    //    SF losers: 2 per sim, so each team's share = sfLoser / (2 * N).
+    //    QF losers: 4 per sim, so each team's share = qfLoser / (4 * N).
+    const sfDivisor = 2 * NUM_SIMULATIONS;
+    const qfDivisor = 4 * NUM_SIMULATIONS;
+
+    return allParticipantIds.map((id) => {
+      const c = counts.get(id)!;
+      const sfProb = c.sfLoser / sfDivisor;
+      const qfProb = c.qfLoser / qfDivisor;
+      return {
+        participantId: id,
+        probabilities: {
+          probFirst: c.champion / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
+          probSecond: c.finalist / NUM_SIMULATIONS,
+          probThird: sfProb,
+          probFourth: sfProb,
+          probFifth: qfProb,
+          probSixth: qfProb,
+          probSeventh: qfProb,
+          probEighth: qfProb,
+        },
+        source: "cfp_monte_carlo",
+      };
+    });
+  }
+}

app/services/simulations/registry.ts

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ import { CSMajorSimulator } from "./cs-major-simulator";
 import { MLBSimulator } from "./mlb-simulator";
 import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator";
 import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator";
+import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "./ncaa-football-simulator";
 
 export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
   "f1_standings",
@@ -42,6 +43,7 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
   "world_cup",
   "darts_bracket",
   "cs2_major_qualifying_points",
+  "ncaa_football_bracket",
 ] as const;
 
 export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number];
@@ -134,6 +136,10 @@ const REGISTRY: Record<SimulatorType, { info: SimulatorInfo; create: () => Simul
     info: { name: "CS2 Major Qualifying Points Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates 2 CS2 Majors per season (3 Swiss stages: Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1, Decider Bo3, then Champions Stage single-elimination). Awards QP by final placement; ranks teams by total QP across both majors. Stage 3 exits (placements 9–16) are sub-ranked by W-L record." },
     create: () => new CSMajorSimulator(),
   },
+  ncaa_football_bracket: {
+    info: { name: "NCAA Football CFP Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket using Elo/FPI ratings entered via Admin → Elo Ratings. Optionally blends with championship futures odds (60% Elo / 40% odds). Seeds 1–4 receive first-round byes; First Round losers score 0 points." },
+    create: () => new NCAAFootballSimulator(),
+  },
 };
 
 export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {

database/schema.ts

@@ -100,6 +100,7 @@ export const simulatorTypeEnum = pgEnum("simulator_type", [
   "world_cup",
   "darts_bracket",
   "cs2_major_qualifying_points",
+  "ncaa_football_bracket",
 ]);
 
 export const playoffMatchGameStatusEnum = pgEnum("playoff_match_game_status", [

drizzle/0071_flippant_amazoness.sql

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+ALTER TYPE "public"."simulator_type" ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket';

drizzle/meta/_journal.json

@@ -498,6 +498,13 @@
       "when": 1775485630297,
       "tag": "0070_verify_migrations",
       "breakpoints": true
+    },
+    {
+      "idx": 71,
+      "version": "7",
+      "when": 1775650608181,
+      "tag": "0071_flippant_amazoness",
+      "breakpoints": true
     }
   ]
 }