Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists

When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already
had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently
ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL).

Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the
sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator()
only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale
`sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not
treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver.

Fix:
- batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips
  sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the
  existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run.
- resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants
  (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the
  configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500.
- batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as
  futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating.

Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the
post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the
new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH

app/models/__tests__/futures-odds-simulator.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach } from "vitest";
+
+// Mock the database context before importing any model
+vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({
+  database: vi.fn(),
+}));
+
+import { database } from "~/database/context";
+import { batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator } from "../simulator";
+
+type SetPayload = Record<string, unknown>;
+
+const setCalls: SetPayload[] = [];
+const conflictSetCalls: SetPayload[] = [];
+
+const tx = {
+  update: vi.fn(() => ({
+    set: vi.fn((arg: SetPayload) => {
+      setCalls.push(arg);
+      return { where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(undefined) };
+    }),
+  })),
+  insert: vi.fn(() => ({
+    values: vi.fn(() => ({
+      onConflictDoUpdate: vi.fn((arg: { set: SetPayload }) => {
+        conflictSetCalls.push(arg.set);
+        return Promise.resolve(undefined);
+      }),
+    })),
+  })),
+};
+
+const mockDb = {
+  transaction: vi.fn(async (cb: (t: typeof tx) => Promise<void>) => cb(tx)),
+};
+
+beforeEach(() => {
+  vi.clearAllMocks();
+  setCalls.length = 0;
+  conflictSetCalls.length = 0;
+  (database as ReturnType<typeof vi.fn>).mockReturnValue(mockDb);
+});
+
+describe("batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator", () => {
+  it("clears rating and sourceElo so odds drive the next run", async () => {
+    await batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator([
+      { participantId: "team-1", sportsSeasonId: "season-1", sourceOdds: 550 },
+    ]);
+
+    // Pre-update clears the stale rating and sourceElo for these participants.
+    expect(setCalls).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(setCalls[0]).toMatchObject({ rating: null, sourceElo: null });
+    // Metadata is rewritten (an SQL fragment that strips ratingMethod/sourceEloMethod).
+    expect(setCalls[0].metadata).toBeDefined();
+
+    // The upsert conflict path also nulls both so re-entering odds stays clean.
+    expect(conflictSetCalls).toHaveLength(1);
+    expect(conflictSetCalls[0]).toMatchObject({ rating: null, sourceElo: null });
+    expect(conflictSetCalls[0].metadata).toBeDefined();
+  });
+
+  it("is a no-op when given no inputs", async () => {
+    await batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator([]);
+    expect(mockDb.transaction).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+});

app/models/__tests__/simulator-inputs.test.ts

@@ -71,4 +71,44 @@ describe("simulator input model", () => {
     expect(byParticipant.get("generated-rating")?.rating).toBeNull();
     expect(byParticipant.get("legacy-direct-rating")?.rating).toBe(27.5);
   });
+
+  it("keeps direct sourceElo but suppresses generated sourceElo", async () => {
+    mockDb.query.seasonParticipants.findMany.mockResolvedValue([
+      { id: "direct-elo" },
+      { id: "generated-elo" },
+    ]);
+    mockDb.query.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.findMany.mockResolvedValue([
+      {
+        participantId: "direct-elo",
+        sourceOdds: null,
+        sourceElo: 1600,
+        worldRanking: null,
+        rating: null,
+        projectedWins: null,
+        projectedTablePoints: null,
+        seed: null,
+        region: null,
+        metadata: { sourceEloMethod: "direct" },
+      },
+      {
+        participantId: "generated-elo",
+        sourceOdds: 750,
+        sourceElo: 1480,
+        worldRanking: null,
+        rating: null,
+        projectedWins: null,
+        projectedTablePoints: null,
+        seed: null,
+        region: null,
+        metadata: { sourceEloMethod: "sourceOdds" },
+      },
+    ]);
+    mockDb.query.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const inputs = await getParticipantSimulatorInputs("season-1");
+    const byParticipant = new Map(inputs.map((input) => [input.participantId, input]));
+
+    expect(byParticipant.get("direct-elo")?.sourceElo).toBe(1600);
+    expect(byParticipant.get("generated-elo")?.sourceElo).toBeNull();
+  });
 });

app/models/participant-expected-value.ts

@@ -393,7 +393,10 @@ export async function batchSaveSourceOdds(
       if (existing.length > 0) {
         await tx
           .update(seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
-          .set({ sourceOdds, updatedAt: now })
+          // Clear any stale Elo and mark the source as odds-driven so the
+          // simulator re-derives Elo from these odds and the elo-ratings page
+          // loader doesn't resurrect an outdated rating.
+          .set({ sourceOdds, sourceElo: null, source: "futures_odds", updatedAt: now })
           .where(eq(seasonParticipantExpectedValues.id, existing[0].id));
       } else {
         // Insert a stub record — probabilities/EV will be filled in by the simulator

app/models/simulator.ts

@@ -364,13 +364,18 @@ export async function batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator(
 
   await db.transaction(async (tx) => {
 
-    // Clear ALL ratings (both manual and generated) so the simulation
-    // re-derives ratings from the newly saved futures odds.
+    // Clear ALL ratings AND sourceElo (both manual and generated) so the
+    // simulation re-derives them from the newly saved futures odds. For
+    // Elo-based simulators, a stale `sourceElo` (e.g. a manually entered
+    // "direct" Elo) would otherwise win the resolveSourceElos precedence and
+    // cause the futures odds to be silently ignored. Nulling it here lets the
+    // sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch drive the run.
     await tx
       .update(schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs)
       .set({
         rating: null,
-        metadata: sql`coalesce(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb) - 'ratingMethod'`,
+        sourceElo: null,
+        metadata: sql`coalesce(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb) - 'ratingMethod' - 'sourceEloMethod'`,
         updatedAt: now,
       })
       .where(
@@ -399,7 +404,8 @@ export async function batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator(
         set: {
           sourceOdds: sql`excluded.source_odds`,
           rating: null,
-          metadata: sql`coalesce(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb) - 'ratingMethod'`,
+          sourceElo: null,
+          metadata: sql`coalesce(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb) - 'ratingMethod' - 'sourceEloMethod'`,
           updatedAt: now,
         },
       });

app/services/simulations/__tests__/input-policy.test.ts

@@ -77,6 +77,54 @@ describe("simulator input policy", () => {
     expect(resolved.get("tail")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1400, method: "worstKnownMinus" });
   });
 
+  it("derives Elo from futures odds when no direct Elo is present", () => {
+    const resolved = resolveSourceElos(
+      [
+        { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
+        { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
+      ],
+      profile,
+      {}
+    );
+
+    expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
+    expect(resolved.get("longshot")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
+    expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.sourceElo).toBeGreaterThan(resolved.get("longshot")?.sourceElo ?? Infinity);
+  });
+
+  it("ignores a lone sourceOdds participant rather than assigning a flat Elo", () => {
+    const inputs = [
+      { participantId: "only", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
+    ];
+
+    // Needs at least 2 odds to derive a spread; with block strategy it stays unresolved.
+    expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, {}).has("only")).toBe(false);
+
+    // With a fallback strategy it resolves via that method, not "sourceOdds".
+    expect(
+      resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, {
+        inputPolicy: { missingEloStrategy: "fallbackElo", fallbackElo: 1400 },
+      }).get("only")
+    ).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1400, method: "fallbackElo" });
+  });
+
+  it("derives Elo from odds once a prior direct Elo has been cleared", () => {
+    // Regression: after entering futures odds the simulator inputs row keeps
+    // sourceOdds but has its sourceElo nulled. The resolver must pick "sourceOdds",
+    // not resurrect a "direct" Elo.
+    const resolved = resolveSourceElos(
+      [
+        { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
+        { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
+      ],
+      profile,
+      {}
+    );
+
+    expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
+    expect(resolved.get("longshot")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds");
+  });
+
   it("derives ratings from futures odds when the profile allows it", () => {
     const resolved = resolveRatings(
       [

app/services/simulations/input-policy.ts

@@ -164,9 +164,21 @@ export function resolveSourceElos(
   }
 
   if (alternatives.has("sourceOdds")) {
+    // Note: participants resolved above via direct Elo are excluded here, so a
+    // season can end up mixing direct Elo and odds-derived Elo. Those two
+    // scales are not jointly calibrated — odds map onto eloMin/eloMax via
+    // convertFuturesToElo independently of any direct values. This is
+    // pre-existing behavior of the mixed input case and intentionally left as-is.
     const oddsInputs = inputs
       .filter((input) => !resolved.has(input.participantId) && input.sourceOdds !== null && input.sourceOdds !== undefined)
       .map((input) => ({ participantId: input.participantId, odds: input.sourceOdds as number }));
+    if (oddsInputs.length === 1) {
+      logger.warn(
+        `resolveSourceElos: only 1 participant has sourceOdds (${oddsInputs[0].participantId}). ` +
+        `convertFuturesToElo requires at least 2 to derive a meaningful Elo spread — falling through to missing-Elo strategy.`
+      );
+    }
+    if (oddsInputs.length >= 2) {
       const converted = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInputs);
       for (const [participantId, elo] of converted) {
         resolved.set(participantId, {
@@ -176,6 +188,7 @@ export function resolveSourceElos(
         });
       }
     }
+  }
 
   const knownElos = [...resolved.values()].map((value) => value.sourceElo);
   const averageKnown = knownElos.length > 0