Fix slow bracket save and stale projected points (#54)

## Summary
- Swap side-effect order so `updateProbabilitiesAfterResult` runs before `recalculateAffectedLeagues` in `processMatchResult`, `processPlayoffEvent`, and the `set-round-winners` route — projected points now reflect the new result immediately instead of waiting on the next simulation.
- Eliminate the N+1 EV lookup in `calculateTeamProjectedScore` by pre-fetching every EV the season needs in a single `inArray` query inside `recalculateStandings` and passing the map down.
- Add `skipProbabilities` option to `processPlayoffEvent`, used from `autoCompleteRoundIfDone` (callers have already refreshed EVs), avoiding a redundant pass on round-completing saves.

Fixes #31

## Test plan
- [x] `npm run typecheck`
- [x] `npx vitest run app/models/__tests__/team-projected-score.test.ts app/models/__tests__/process-match-result.test.ts app/services/__tests__/probability-updater.test.ts` — 57/57 passing
- [ ] Manual: save a round of bracket winners on a sports season with at least one fantasy league and confirm (a) the request returns faster and (b) the team standings show projected points updated to reflect the result without re-running the simulator

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisparsons1127@gmail.com>
Reviewed-on: #54

app/models/scoring-calculator.ts

@@ -26,7 +26,10 @@ import {
   getQPStandings,
   updateFinalRankings,
 } from "./qualifying-points";
-import { getParticipantEV } from "./participant-expected-value";
+import {
+  getParticipantEV,
+  type ParticipantEV,
+} from "./participant-expected-value";
 import { calculateEV } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
 
 /**
@@ -165,7 +168,7 @@ function getRoundConfig(
 export async function processPlayoffEvent(
   eventId: string,
   providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>,
-  options?: { skipRecalculate?: boolean }
+  options?: { skipRecalculate?: boolean; skipProbabilities?: boolean }
 ): Promise<void> {
   const db = providedDb || database();
 
@@ -358,23 +361,25 @@ export async function processPlayoffEvent(
     }
   }
 
+  // Update probabilities first so the standings recalc reads fresh EVs.
+  if (!options?.skipProbabilities) {
+    try {
+      await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(event.sportsSeasonId, true);
+      logger.log(
+        `[ScoringCalculator] Auto-updated probabilities for sports season ${event.sportsSeasonId}`
+      );
+    } catch (error) {
+      logger.error(
+        `[ScoringCalculator] Failed to auto-update probabilities for sports season ${event.sportsSeasonId}:`,
+        error
+      );
+    }
+  }
+
   // Recalculate standings for all affected leagues (skipped when caller handles it)
   if (!options?.skipRecalculate) {
     await recalculateAffectedLeagues(event.sportsSeasonId, db, { eventName: event.name, eventId });
   }
-
-  // Auto-trigger probability recalculation after result
-  try {
-    await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(event.sportsSeasonId, true);
-    logger.log(
-      `[ScoringCalculator] Auto-updated probabilities for sports season ${event.sportsSeasonId}`
-    );
-  } catch (error) {
-    logger.error(
-      `[ScoringCalculator] Failed to auto-update probabilities for sports season ${event.sportsSeasonId}:`,
-      error
-    );
-  }
 }
 
 /**
@@ -489,7 +494,8 @@ export async function processMatchResult(
     const sideEffectOptions = (eventName || eventId)
       ? { eventName, eventId, matchIds: matchId ? [matchId] : undefined }
       : undefined;
-    await recalculateAffectedLeagues(sportsSeasonId, db, sideEffectOptions);
+    // Update probabilities first so the standings recalc reads fresh EVs and
+    // projected points reflect the new result.
     try {
       await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(sportsSeasonId, true);
     } catch (error) {
@@ -498,6 +504,7 @@ export async function processMatchResult(
         error
       );
     }
+    await recalculateAffectedLeagues(sportsSeasonId, db, sideEffectOptions);
   }
 }
 
@@ -1061,7 +1068,8 @@ export async function calculateTeamScore(
 export async function calculateTeamProjectedScore(
   teamId: string,
   seasonId: string,
-  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
+  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>,
+  evByParticipantId?: Map<string, ParticipantEV>
 ): Promise<{
   actualPoints: number;
   projectedPoints: number;
@@ -1185,7 +1193,9 @@ export async function calculateTeamProjectedScore(
   let evSum = 0;
   if (unfinishedParticipants.length > 0) {
     for (const { participantId, sportsSeasonId, floorPoints } of unfinishedParticipants) {
-      const ev = await getParticipantEV(participantId, sportsSeasonId);
+      const ev = evByParticipantId
+        ? evByParticipantId.get(participantId) ?? null
+        : await getParticipantEV(participantId, sportsSeasonId);
 
       if (ev) {
         // EV is already calculated with default scoring (100/70/50/40/25/25/15/15)
@@ -1317,11 +1327,32 @@ export async function recalculateStandings(
     where: eq(schema.teams.seasonId, seasonId),
   });
 
+  // Pre-fetch every EV referenced by this season's draft picks in one query, then
+  // pass the map into calculateTeamProjectedScore to avoid an N+1 per team.
+  const evByParticipantId = new Map<string, ParticipantEV>();
+  const allPicks = await db.query.draftPicks.findMany({
+    where: eq(schema.draftPicks.seasonId, seasonId),
+    columns: { participantId: true },
+    with: { participant: { columns: { sportsSeasonId: true } } },
+  });
+  if (allPicks.length > 0) {
+    const sportsSeasonIds = Array.from(
+      new Set(allPicks.map((p) => p.participant.sportsSeasonId))
+    );
+    const evRows = await db
+      .select()
+      .from(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues)
+      .where(inArray(schema.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonIds));
+    for (const ev of evRows) {
+      evByParticipantId.set(ev.participantId, ev);
+    }
+  }
+
   // Calculate scores for all teams
   const teamScores = await Promise.all(
     teams.map(async (team) => {
       const score = await calculateTeamScore(team.id, seasonId, db);
-      const projected = await calculateTeamProjectedScore(team.id, seasonId, db);
+      const projected = await calculateTeamProjectedScore(team.id, seasonId, db, evByParticipantId);
       return {
         teamId: team.id,
         totalPoints: score.totalPoints,

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts

@@ -238,7 +238,9 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
       .set({ playoffRound: round, updatedAt: new Date() })
       .where(eq(schema.scoringEvents.id, eventId));
 
-    await processPlayoffEvent(eventId, db, { skipRecalculate: true });
+    // skipProbabilities=true: callers (set-winner / set-round-winners) already ran
+    // updateProbabilitiesAfterResult before reaching here, so re-running would be wasted.
+    await processPlayoffEvent(eventId, db, { skipRecalculate: true, skipProbabilities: true });
     logger.log(`[AutoComplete] Round "${round}" auto-completed for event ${eventId}`);
   }
 
@@ -444,12 +446,14 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
       // previously completed matches in the event.
       if (successCount > 0) {
         const db = database();
-        await recalculateAffectedLeagues(event.sportsSeasonId, db, { eventId: event.id, eventName: event.name ?? undefined, matchIds: processedMatchIds });
+        // Update probabilities first so recalculateAffectedLeagues reads fresh EVs
+        // when computing projected points.
         try {
           await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(event.sportsSeasonId, true);
         } catch (error) {
           logger.error(`Error updating probabilities after batch round winners:`, error);
         }
+        await recalculateAffectedLeagues(event.sportsSeasonId, db, { eventId: event.id, eventName: event.name ?? undefined, matchIds: processedMatchIds });
         await autoCompleteRoundIfDone(event.id, round, event.sportsSeasonId, db);
       }
 

app/services/probability-updater.ts

@@ -143,6 +143,9 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
       pointsFor8th: 15,
     };
 
+    // Sequential: upsertParticipantEV calls syncVorpForSeason internally, which
+    // reads and rewrites every seasonParticipants row for this sportsSeasonId.
+    // Running these in parallel would race on that shared state.
     for (const [participantId, finalPosition] of finishedMap.entries()) {
       try {
         const probs = createFinishedProbabilities(finalPosition);
@@ -185,7 +188,8 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
         // Recalculate ICM for unfinished participants
         const icmResults = calculateICMFromOdds(unfinishedOdds);
 
-        // Update each unfinished participant
+        // Sequential for the same reason as the finished loop above:
+        // upsertParticipantEV rewrites shared per-season state via syncVorpForSeason.
         for (const [participantId, icmResult] of icmResults.entries()) {
           try {
             const probs = [