From c0f674f648b4f3ef96e86e13e7cff0dca07b1773 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Chris Parsons <chrisparsons1127@gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 31 May 2026 10:34:47 -0700
Subject: [PATCH] Fix darts simulator timeout and world-cup bracket edge case
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- Add numSimulations constructor param to DartsSimulator (same pattern as
  WorldCupSimulator); drop default from 50k→10k; update manifest to match
- Pass 200 iterations in the slow darts column-sum test to prevent CI timeout
- Fix world-cup "SF losers" test to use 48 participants — with only 8,
  the R32 pool has 6 teams and SF never runs, leaving all placement counts
  at 0 and normalization producing probFirst=probThird=1 for one team
- Add manifest iterations: 10_000 override for darts_bracket

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 .../__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts            |  2 +-
 .../__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts        |  3 +--
 app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts      | 16 +++++++++++-----
 app/services/simulations/manifest.ts             |  2 +-
 4 files changed, 14 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-)

diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
index 8a45803..6f0c842 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
@@ -325,7 +325,7 @@ describe("DartsSimulator.simulate() — Path A (bracket populated)", () => {
   it("each probability column sums to 1.0 across all 128 participants", async () => {
     mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue(makeFullBracket());
 
-    const sim = new DartsSimulator();
+    const sim = new DartsSimulator(200);
     const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
 
     const keys = [
diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
index bf2e9e4..0ea67b6 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
@@ -156,8 +156,7 @@ describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
   });
 
   it("SF losers land in 3rd or 4th, never 1st or 2nd", async () => {
-    // Set up 8 participants (small bracket, 2 groups of 4)
-    const participants = makeParticipants(8);
+    const participants = makeParticipants(48);
     mockDb.query.seasonParticipants.findMany.mockResolvedValue(participants);
     mockDb.query.scoringEvents.findFirst.mockResolvedValue(null);
     mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
diff --git a/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts b/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
index 673b37c..1671259 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
 
 // ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50000;
+
 
 /**
  * Controls how much Elo gaps affect per-set win probability.
@@ -198,6 +198,12 @@ function shuffle<T>(arr: T[]): T[] {
 // ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
+  private readonly numSimulations: number;
+
+  constructor(numSimulations = 10_000) {
+    this.numSimulations = numSimulations;
+  }
+
   async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
     const db = database();
 
@@ -325,7 +331,7 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
     const sfLoserCounts   = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
     const qfLoserCounts   = new Map<string, number>(participantIds.map((id) => [id, 0]));
 
-    for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
+    for (let s = 0; s < this.numSimulations; s++) {
       // R1 (64 matches)
       const r1Winners: string[] = [];
       for (let i = 1; i <= 64; i++) {
@@ -433,7 +439,7 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
       finalistCounts.set(finalist, (finalistCounts.get(finalist) ?? 0) + 1);
     }
 
-    return buildResults(participantIds, NUM_SIMULATIONS, {
+    return buildResults(participantIds, this.numSimulations, {
       championCounts,
       finalistCounts,
       sfLoserCounts,
@@ -514,7 +520,7 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
       unseededPool.push(`__bye_${unseededPool.length}`);
     }
 
-    for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
+    for (let s = 0; s < this.numSimulations; s++) {
       // Draw: shuffle the unseeded pool — seeded positions are pre-computed.
       const drawnUnseeded = shuffle([...unseededPool]);
 
@@ -582,7 +588,7 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
       finalistCounts.set(finalist, (finalistCounts.get(finalist) ?? 0) + 1);
     }
 
-    return buildResults(allParticipantIds, NUM_SIMULATIONS, {
+    return buildResults(allParticipantIds, this.numSimulations, {
       championCounts,
       finalistCounts,
       sfLoserCounts,
diff --git a/app/services/simulations/manifest.ts b/app/services/simulations/manifest.ts
index 7558cda..e2e7f9f 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/manifest.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/manifest.ts
@@ -163,7 +163,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
     setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "futuresOdds", "events"],
   },
   darts_bracket: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, eloDivisor: 400 },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, iterations: 10_000, eloDivisor: 400 },
     requiredInputs: ["sourceElo", "worldRanking"],
     optionalInputs: ["seed"],
     setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings"],