Fix simulator correctness bugs and reduce test iteration counts

- Fix EPL Elo/odds fallback to populate odds-derived Elo for teams
  missing sourceElo even when other teams have it (was silently throwing)
- Reduce WorldCupSimulator default iterations 50k→10k; test iterations
  500→100 (WorldCup) and 10k→500 (EPL) to prevent timeouts on slow CI
- Override manifest defaultConfig iterations to 10k for world_cup and
  epl_standings so production fallback matches source-level defaults
- Extract runKnockoutRound out of the 10k-iteration simulation loop
- Replace hot-loop toSorted() on 2-element arrays with a conditional
  string comparison (eliminates allocation+sort on every group pair)
- Remove local normalizeProbabilities duplicate; use shared
  normalizeSimulationResultColumns from simulation-probabilities.ts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/services/simulations/__tests__/epl-simulator.test.ts

@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ describe("EPLSimulator.simulate()", () => {
     (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb);
     (getRegularSeasonStandings as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([]);
     (getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue({
-      config: { iterations: 10_000, matchParityFactor: 400 },
+      config: { iterations: 500, matchParityFactor: 400 },
     });
   });
 

app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts

@@ -114,7 +114,7 @@ describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
     mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
     mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
 
-    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(100);
     await expect(sim.simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow("No participants found");
   });
 
@@ -125,7 +125,7 @@ describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
     mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
     mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
 
-    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(100);
     const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
     expect(results).toHaveLength(48);
     const ids = new Set(results.map((r) => r.participantId));
@@ -141,7 +141,7 @@ describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
     mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
     mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
 
-    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(100);
     const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
 
     const sumFirst  = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst,  0);
@@ -163,7 +163,7 @@ describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
     mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
     mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
 
-    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(100);
     const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
 
     // probFirst + probSecond + probThird + probFourth should cover all probability mass
@@ -219,7 +219,7 @@ describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
     mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([group, ...remainingGroups]);
     mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
 
-    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(100);
     const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
 
     const p3Result = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "p3");
@@ -239,7 +239,7 @@ describe("WorldCupSimulator", () => {
     mockDb.query.tournamentGroups.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
     mockDb.query.playoffMatches.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
 
-    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(500);
+    const sim = new WorldCupSimulator(100);
     const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
 
     for (const r of results) {

app/services/simulations/epl-simulator.ts

@@ -127,10 +127,10 @@ export class EPLSimulator implements Simulator {
       }
     }
 
-    if (dbEloMap.size === 0) {
-      const oddsInput = evRows
-        .filter((row) => row.sourceOdds !== null && row.sourceOdds !== undefined)
-        .map((row) => ({ participantId: row.participantId, odds: row.sourceOdds as number }));
+    const oddsInput = evRows
+      .filter((row) => !dbEloMap.has(row.participantId) && row.sourceOdds !== null && row.sourceOdds !== undefined)
+      .map((row) => ({ participantId: row.participantId, odds: row.sourceOdds as number }));
+    if (oddsInput.length > 0) {
       const converted = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput);
       for (const [participantId, elo] of converted) dbEloMap.set(participantId, elo);
     }

app/services/simulations/manifest.ts

@@ -116,6 +116,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
   epl_standings: {
     defaultConfig: {
       ...BASE_CONFIG,
+      iterations: 10_000,
       seasonGames: 38,
       parityFactor: 400,
       matchParityFactor: 400,
@@ -155,7 +156,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
     setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings"],
   },
   world_cup: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, eloWeight: 0.7, oddsWeight: 0.3 },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, iterations: 10_000, eloWeight: 0.7, oddsWeight: 0.3 },
     requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
     optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
     derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },

app/services/simulations/world-cup-simulator.ts

@@ -40,8 +40,9 @@ import { eq, and } from "drizzle-orm";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
 import { convertFuturesToElo, eloWinProbability } from "~/services/probability-engine";
 import { simulateEloSoccerMatch } from "./soccer-helpers";
+import { normalizeSimulationResultColumns } from "./simulation-probabilities";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
-import type { Simulator, SimulationResult, SimulationProbabilities } from "./types";
+import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
 
 // ─── Name normalisation (same logic as elo-ratings bulk-import fuzzy match) ──
 
@@ -51,7 +52,7 @@ function normalizeTeamName(name: string): string {
 
 // ─── Parameters ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
+const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 10_000;
 const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.7;
 const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
 
@@ -217,8 +218,10 @@ function simGroup(
       else { sa.pts += 1; sb.pts += 1; }
 
       // Mark this pairing as done so we don't re-simulate it
-      const key = [m.participant1Id, m.participant2Id].toSorted().join(":");
-      completedPairs.add(key);
+      const [p1, p2] = m.participant1Id < m.participant2Id
+        ? [m.participant1Id, m.participant2Id]
+        : [m.participant2Id, m.participant1Id];
+      completedPairs.add(`${p1}:${p2}`);
     }
   }
 
@@ -227,7 +230,7 @@ function simGroup(
     for (let j = i + 1; j < teamIds.length; j++) {
       const a = teamIds[i];
       const b = teamIds[j];
-      const key = [a, b].toSorted().join(":");
+      const key = a < b ? `${a}:${b}` : `${b}:${a}`;
       if (completedPairs.has(key)) continue; // already applied above
 
       const result = simGroupMatch(eloFn(a), eloFn(b));
@@ -279,24 +282,6 @@ function simKnockout(
   return { winner, loser: winner === teamA ? teamB : teamA };
 }
 
-// ─── Probability normalisation ────────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-function normalizeProbabilities(
-  results: SimulationResult[],
-  positionKeys: Array<keyof SimulationProbabilities>
-): void {
-  for (const key of positionKeys) {
-    const colSum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0);
-    const residual = 1.0 - colSum;
-    if (residual !== 0 && Math.abs(residual) < 1e-9) {
-      const maxResult = results.reduce((best, r) =>
-        r.probabilities[key] > best.probabilities[key] ? r : best
-      );
-      maxResult.probabilities[key] += residual;
-    }
-  }
-}
-
 // ─── Main simulator ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
@@ -468,6 +453,31 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
       counts.qfLoser.set(id, 0);
     }
 
+    function runKnockoutRound(
+      teams: string[],
+      roundName: string
+    ): { winners: string[]; losers: string[] } {
+      const winners: string[] = [];
+      const losers: string[] = [];
+      for (let i = 0; i < teams.length; i += 2) {
+        const a = teams[i];
+        const b = teams[i + 1];
+        if (!a || !b) continue;
+
+        const matchNum = Math.floor(i / 2) + 1;
+        const fixed = completedByRoundAndNumber.get(`${roundName}:${matchNum}`);
+        if (fixed) {
+          winners.push(fixed.winnerId);
+          losers.push(fixed.loserId);
+        } else {
+          const { winner, loser } = simKnockout(a, b, eloFn, normalizedProb);
+          winners.push(winner);
+          losers.push(loser);
+        }
+      }
+      return { winners, losers };
+    }
+
     for (let sim = 0; sim < this.numSimulations; sim++) {
       // ── Group stage ──────────────────────────────────────────────
       const advancingFromGroup: string[] = []; // group winners + runners-up (24 teams)
@@ -504,31 +514,6 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
       // Completed knockout matches are honoured by round+matchNumber, so as the real
       // bracket plays out the simulation locks in actual results automatically.
 
-      function runKnockoutRound(
-        teams: string[],
-        roundName: string
-      ): { winners: string[]; losers: string[] } {
-        const winners: string[] = [];
-        const losers: string[] = [];
-        for (let i = 0; i < teams.length; i += 2) {
-          const a = teams[i];
-          const b = teams[i + 1];
-          if (!a || !b) continue;
-
-          const matchNum = Math.floor(i / 2) + 1;
-          const fixed = completedByRoundAndNumber.get(`${roundName}:${matchNum}`);
-          if (fixed) {
-            winners.push(fixed.winnerId);
-            losers.push(fixed.loserId);
-          } else {
-            const { winner, loser } = simKnockout(a, b, eloFn, normalizedProb);
-            winners.push(winner);
-            losers.push(loser);
-          }
-        }
-        return { winners, losers };
-      }
-
       const r32 = runKnockoutRound(r32Pool, "Round of 32");
       const r16 = runKnockoutRound(r32.winners, "Round of 16");
       const qf = runKnockoutRound(r16.winners, "Quarterfinals");
@@ -595,11 +580,7 @@ export class WorldCupSimulator implements Simulator {
       };
     });
 
-    // Normalise floating-point residuals per position
-    const positionKeys: Array<keyof SimulationProbabilities> = [
-      "probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
-    ];
-    normalizeProbabilities(results, positionKeys);
+    normalizeSimulationResultColumns(results);
 
     return results;
   }