diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
index 9c4deda..cf85093 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
@@ -40,9 +40,9 @@ describe("setWinProb", () => {
     expect(setWinProb(1000, 3000)).toBeGreaterThan(0);
   });
 
-  it("calibration: 100-pt gap → ~56% per set (ELO_DIVISOR=400)", () => {
-    // 1 / (1 + e^(-100/400)) ≈ 0.5622
-    expect(setWinProb(1900, 1800)).toBeCloseTo(0.5622, 2);
+  it("calibration: 100-pt gap → ~62% per set (ELO_DIVISOR=200)", () => {
+    // 1 / (1 + e^(-100/200)) ≈ 0.6225
+    expect(setWinProb(1900, 1800)).toBeCloseTo(0.6225, 2);
   });
 });
 
diff --git a/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts b/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
index 79efc8d..b8759e6 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
@@ -59,12 +59,15 @@ const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50000;
  * Lower  = sharper (Elo differences matter more).
  *
  * Standard chess uses 400. Snooker (more random than chess) uses 700.
- * Darts at the elite level is relatively skill-dominated; 400 gives:
- *   100-pt gap → ~56% per set
- *   300-pt gap → ~67% per set
- *   500-pt gap → ~78% per set
+ * Darts at the elite level is highly skill-dominated; 200 gives:
+ *   100-pt gap → ~62% per set
+ *   200-pt gap → ~73% per set
+ *   300-pt gap → ~83% per set
+ *
+ * With 200, a real PDC field (top players 1800–1970 Elo, unseeded at 1400)
+ * produces EV ≈ 65–70 for the world #1 (≈2080 Elo) in a 128-player bracket.
  */
-const ELO_DIVISOR = 400;
+const ELO_DIVISOR = 200;
 
 /**
  * Sets needed to win per round, in bracket order (R1 first, Final last).