Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator
Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const, use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Chris Parsons
parent
8cfbd109da
commit
d991ae69f4
2 changed files with 286 additions and 221 deletions
|
|
@ -33,7 +33,6 @@ function makeEvRows(
|
|||
}));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/** Build participant rows. */
|
||||
function makeParticipants(ids: string[]) {
|
||||
return ids.map((id) => ({ id }));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -41,55 +40,40 @@ function makeParticipants(ids: string[]) {
|
|||
// ─── Tests ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
describe("NCAAFootballSimulator", () => {
|
||||
let mockDb: {
|
||||
select: MockInstance;
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
// select() returns a chain: .from().where() → resolves to an array
|
||||
// We need two calls: one for participants, one for EV rows.
|
||||
let mockDb: { select: MockInstance };
|
||||
let selectCallCount: number;
|
||||
|
||||
beforeEach(async () => {
|
||||
selectCallCount = 0;
|
||||
const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
|
||||
|
||||
mockDb = {
|
||||
select: vi.fn(),
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
mockDb = { select: vi.fn() };
|
||||
(database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
function setupMockDb(
|
||||
participantIds: string[],
|
||||
opts: { includeOdds?: boolean } = {}
|
||||
) {
|
||||
function setupMockDb(participantIds: string[], opts: { includeOdds?: boolean } = {}) {
|
||||
const participants = makeParticipants(participantIds);
|
||||
const evRows = makeEvRows(participantIds, opts);
|
||||
|
||||
mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => {
|
||||
const callIndex = selectCallCount++;
|
||||
const data = callIndex === 0 ? participants : evRows;
|
||||
return {
|
||||
from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({
|
||||
where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data),
|
||||
}),
|
||||
};
|
||||
return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) };
|
||||
});
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Post-bracket mode (exactly 12 teams) ─────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
describe("post-bracket mode (exactly 12 teams)", () => {
|
||||
it("returns one result per participant", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
expect(results).toHaveLength(12);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("all probabilities are between 0 and 1", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
for (const r of results) {
|
||||
const p = r.probabilities;
|
||||
|
|
@ -102,39 +86,31 @@ describe("NCAAFootballSimulator", () => {
|
|||
|
||||
it("top-rated team has highest champion probability", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
|
||||
const team1Prob = byId.get("team-1")!.probabilities.probFirst;
|
||||
const team12Prob = byId.get("team-12")!.probabilities.probFirst;
|
||||
|
||||
expect(team1Prob).toBeGreaterThan(team12Prob);
|
||||
expect(byId.get("team-1")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeGreaterThan(
|
||||
byId.get("team-12")?.probabilities.probFirst
|
||||
);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("probFirst sums to approximately 1.0 across all teams", async () => {
|
||||
it("probFirst sums to approximately 1.0", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
|
||||
expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("probSecond sums to approximately 1.0 across all teams", async () => {
|
||||
it("probSecond sums to approximately 1.0", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probSecond, 0);
|
||||
expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("probThird equals probFourth for every team (tied SF placement)", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
for (const r of results) {
|
||||
expect(r.probabilities.probThird).toBeCloseTo(r.probabilities.probFourth, 10);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -142,9 +118,7 @@ describe("NCAAFootballSimulator", () => {
|
|||
|
||||
it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for every team (tied QF placement)", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
for (const r of results) {
|
||||
const p = r.probabilities;
|
||||
expect(p.probFifth).toBeCloseTo(p.probSixth, 10);
|
||||
|
|
@ -155,78 +129,99 @@ describe("NCAAFootballSimulator", () => {
|
|||
|
||||
it("weakest team has very low champion probability", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
// team-12 (Elo 1150) vs team-1 (Elo 1700): team-12 should rarely win
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
|
||||
expect(byId.get("team-12")!.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.02);
|
||||
// team-12 (Elo 1150) vs team-1 (Elo 1700): 550-point gap → should rarely win
|
||||
expect(byId.get("team-12")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.02);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("source is cfp_monte_carlo", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS);
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
for (const r of results) {
|
||||
expect(r.source).toBe("cfp_monte_carlo");
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("throws when no participants found", async () => {
|
||||
mockDb.select.mockReturnValue({
|
||||
from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({
|
||||
where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue([]),
|
||||
}),
|
||||
it("uses futures odds when sourceOdds present", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS, { includeOdds: true });
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
expect(results).toHaveLength(12);
|
||||
const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
|
||||
expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
await expect(sim.simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/No participants found/);
|
||||
// ── Pre-bracket mode (>12 teams — probabilistic selection) ───────────────
|
||||
|
||||
describe("pre-bracket mode (>12 teams)", () => {
|
||||
it("returns one result per participant when pool is larger than 12", async () => {
|
||||
const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`);
|
||||
setupMockDb(twentyTeams);
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
expect(results).toHaveLength(20);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("throws when fewer than 12 participants are provided", async () => {
|
||||
it("probFirst still sums to ~1.0 across all teams (one champion per sim)", async () => {
|
||||
const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`);
|
||||
setupMockDb(twentyTeams);
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
|
||||
expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("top team has much higher probFirst than bottom team in larger pool", async () => {
|
||||
const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`);
|
||||
setupMockDb(twentyTeams);
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
|
||||
// team-1 (Elo 1700) should win far more often than team-20 (Elo 750)
|
||||
expect(byId.get("team-1")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeGreaterThan(
|
||||
(byId.get("team-20")?.probabilities.probFirst ?? 0) * 10
|
||||
);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("bottom-pool teams (large Elo gap) rarely appear in champion slot", async () => {
|
||||
const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`);
|
||||
setupMockDb(twentyTeams);
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r]));
|
||||
// team-19 and team-20 have Elos of 800 and 750 — far below the top 12 (~1150+)
|
||||
// With softmax T=100, their selection weight is negligible
|
||||
expect(byId.get("team-19")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.01);
|
||||
expect(byId.get("team-20")?.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.01);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("uses futures odds as selection weights when provided", async () => {
|
||||
const twentyTeams = Array.from({ length: 20 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`);
|
||||
setupMockDb(twentyTeams, { includeOdds: true });
|
||||
const results = await new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1");
|
||||
expect(results).toHaveLength(20);
|
||||
const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
|
||||
expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Error cases ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
describe("error cases", () => {
|
||||
it("throws when fewer than 12 participants provided", async () => {
|
||||
const elevenTeams = TEAM_IDS.slice(0, 11);
|
||||
let call = 0;
|
||||
mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => {
|
||||
const data = call++ === 0 ? makeParticipants(elevenTeams) : makeEvRows(elevenTeams);
|
||||
return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) };
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
await expect(sim.simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/12 participants/);
|
||||
await expect(new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/at least 12/);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("uses futures odds when sourceOdds present (does not throw)", async () => {
|
||||
setupMockDb(TEAM_IDS, { includeOdds: true });
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
// Should still return 12 results with valid probabilities
|
||||
expect(results).toHaveLength(12);
|
||||
const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
|
||||
expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it("teams outside top 12 have all-zero probabilities (15-team season)", async () => {
|
||||
// 15 participants — only top 12 enter the bracket, bottom 3 stay at 0 EV
|
||||
const fifteenTeams = Array.from({ length: 15 }, (_, i) => `team-${i + 1}`);
|
||||
it("throws when participant list is empty", async () => {
|
||||
let call = 0;
|
||||
mockDb.select.mockImplementation(() => {
|
||||
const data = call++ === 0 ? makeParticipants(fifteenTeams) : makeEvRows(fifteenTeams);
|
||||
const data = call++ === 0 ? [] : [];
|
||||
return { from: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({ where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(data) }) };
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
const sim = new NCAAFootballSimulator();
|
||||
const results = await sim.simulate("season-1");
|
||||
|
||||
expect(results).toHaveLength(15);
|
||||
|
||||
for (const id of ["team-13", "team-14", "team-15"]) {
|
||||
const r = results.find((x) => x.participantId === id)!;
|
||||
expect(r.probabilities.probFirst).toBe(0);
|
||||
expect(r.probabilities.probSecond).toBe(0);
|
||||
expect(r.probabilities.probThird).toBe(0);
|
||||
expect(r.probabilities.probEighth).toBe(0);
|
||||
}
|
||||
await expect(new NCAAFootballSimulator().simulate("season-1")).rejects.toThrow(/at least 12/);
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,25 +7,37 @@
|
|||
* 1. Load all participants for the sports season from DB
|
||||
* 2. Load Elo/FPI ratings from participantExpectedValues.sourceElo
|
||||
* (entered via Admin → Elo Ratings page; use FPI, S&P+, or any Elo-scale rating)
|
||||
* 3. If sourceOdds (American format) are also stored, blend the Elo-based and
|
||||
* odds-based per-game win probabilities: P = ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb
|
||||
* 4. Sort teams by blended strength (descending) to assign seeds 1–12
|
||||
* 5. Simulate 50,000 CFP brackets per the official seeding structure:
|
||||
* 3. If sourceOdds (American format) are also stored, build a normalized selection
|
||||
* weight from implied championship probability (used for field selection in step 4)
|
||||
* and blend into per-game win probability (ELO_WEIGHT=0.6 / ODDS_WEIGHT=0.4).
|
||||
* 4. Per simulation, select 12 teams for the CFP field:
|
||||
* - If the pool has exactly 12 teams: use all of them (post-bracket mode).
|
||||
* - If the pool has >12 teams: weighted sample without replacement using each
|
||||
* team's selection weight — odds-derived if available, Elo-based otherwise.
|
||||
* Teams with stronger championship odds are sampled more often, naturally
|
||||
* encoding both selection probability and bracket strength into one signal.
|
||||
* 5. Seed the 12 selected teams by Elo (best Elo = seed 1).
|
||||
* 6. Simulate the CFP bracket:
|
||||
* First Round (not scoring): 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
|
||||
* Quarterfinals (scoring): 1 vs 8/9w, 4 vs 5/12w, 3 vs 6/11w, 2 vs 7/10w
|
||||
* Semifinals (scoring): QF1w vs QF2w, QF3w vs QF4w
|
||||
* National Championship: SF1w vs SF2w
|
||||
* 6. Track placement counts per scoring tier
|
||||
* 7. Convert counts to probability distributions
|
||||
* 7. Track placement counts per scoring tier across all simulations.
|
||||
* 8. Convert counts to probability distributions.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Win probability: eloWinProbability() from probability-engine (standard 400-divisor Elo formula).
|
||||
* Pre-bracket vs post-bracket mode:
|
||||
* Pre-bracket (>12 participants): probabilities reflect both selection uncertainty
|
||||
* and bracket performance. A bubble team might appear in only 40% of simulated
|
||||
* fields, so its champion probability accounts for that.
|
||||
* Post-bracket (exactly 12 participants): deterministic field, bracket-only sim.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Futures blending (when sourceOdds are present):
|
||||
* P(game) = ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb
|
||||
* ELO_WEIGHT = 0.6, ODDS_WEIGHT = 0.4
|
||||
* A slightly lower Elo weight than other sports (0.7) gives more influence to
|
||||
* Vegas championship odds, which are highly informative in college football.
|
||||
* Falls back to Elo-only when no sourceOdds are stored.
|
||||
* Win probability (per game): eloWinProbability() from probability-engine (400-divisor).
|
||||
* Blended win probability: ELO_WEIGHT * eloProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb (when odds present).
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Selection weight (pre-bracket mode):
|
||||
* With sourceOdds: normalized implied championship probability (vig removed, sums to 1).
|
||||
* Without sourceOdds: softmax on Elo with temperature SELECTION_TEMP (sharply favors
|
||||
* higher-rated teams — a 200-point Elo gap yields ~7× selection weight difference).
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Placement tiers → SimulationProbabilities mapping:
|
||||
* probFirst = National Champion (1 per sim)
|
||||
|
|
@ -33,12 +45,14 @@
|
|||
* probThird / probFourth = Semifinal losers (2 per sim — split evenly)
|
||||
* probFifth–probEighth = Quarterfinal losers (4 per sim — split evenly)
|
||||
* First Round losers → all 0 (score 0 fantasy points)
|
||||
* Teams not selected → all 0 (not in field for that sim)
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Admin setup:
|
||||
* 1. Create a Sport with simulatorType = "ncaa_football_bracket"
|
||||
* 2. Create a Sports Season and add 12 team participants
|
||||
* 2. Create a Sports Season and add all contender participants (12 or more)
|
||||
* 3. Enter FPI ratings via Admin → Elo Ratings (stored as sourceElo)
|
||||
* 4. Optionally enter championship futures odds via Admin → Futures Odds (stored as sourceOdds)
|
||||
* 4. Optionally enter championship futures odds via Admin → Futures Odds (sourceOdds)
|
||||
* — strongly recommended for pre-bracket mode; drives both selection and bracket strength
|
||||
* 5. Run simulation via Admin → Simulate
|
||||
*/
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -58,26 +72,39 @@ const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50_000;
|
|||
const BRACKET_SIZE = 12;
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Weight for the Elo-based probability component.
|
||||
* Remaining (ODDS_WEIGHT) goes to the Vegas futures-derived component.
|
||||
* Blend weights for per-game win probability when sourceOdds are present.
|
||||
* Lower Elo weight than other sports (0.7) gives more influence to Vegas
|
||||
* championship odds, which are highly informative in college football.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
const ELO_WEIGHT = 0.6;
|
||||
const ODDS_WEIGHT = 1 - ELO_WEIGHT;
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Softmax temperature for Elo-based selection weights (pre-bracket mode, no odds).
|
||||
* At T=100, a 200-point Elo gap produces ~7× weight difference — enough to strongly
|
||||
* favour the top teams while still giving bubble teams meaningful selection probability.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
const SELECTION_TEMP = 100;
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Types ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
interface Team {
|
||||
participantId: string;
|
||||
elo: number;
|
||||
/** Normalized futures win probability (0–1). Used for blending when odds available. */
|
||||
/** Normalized futures win probability (0–1). Used for blending per-game win prob. */
|
||||
oddsProb: number;
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Weight used for probabilistic CFP field selection (pre-bracket mode only).
|
||||
* Derived from oddsProb when available; otherwise softmax on Elo.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
selectionWeight: number;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Win probability helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
// ─── Helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Blended win probability for team1 vs team2.
|
||||
* When oddsProbs are both 0 (no futures data), falls back to pure Elo.
|
||||
* Falls back to pure Elo when no futures data is present.
|
||||
*/
|
||||
function blendedWinProb(team1: Team, team2: Team): number {
|
||||
const eloProbValue = eloWinProbability(team1.elo, team2.elo);
|
||||
|
|
@ -99,6 +126,31 @@ function simGame(team1: Team, team2: Team): { winner: Team; loser: Team } {
|
|||
: { winner: team2, loser: team1 };
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/**
|
||||
* Weighted sample without replacement — selects `n` teams from `pool` where each
|
||||
* team's probability of being drawn is proportional to its selectionWeight.
|
||||
* Returns the selected teams sorted by Elo descending (seed 1 = best Elo).
|
||||
*/
|
||||
function sampleBracketField(pool: Team[], n: number): Team[] {
|
||||
const remaining = [...pool];
|
||||
const selected: Team[] = [];
|
||||
|
||||
for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
|
||||
const totalWeight = remaining.reduce((sum, t) => sum + t.selectionWeight, 0);
|
||||
let r = Math.random() * totalWeight;
|
||||
let j = 0;
|
||||
for (; j < remaining.length - 1; j++) {
|
||||
r -= remaining[j].selectionWeight;
|
||||
if (r <= 0) break;
|
||||
}
|
||||
selected.push(remaining[j]);
|
||||
remaining.splice(j, 1);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Seed by Elo so that the best team in the sampled field is always seed 1.
|
||||
return selected.toSorted((a, b) => b.elo - a.elo);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Bracket simulation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
||||
interface PlacementCounts {
|
||||
|
|
@ -111,7 +163,7 @@ interface PlacementCounts {
|
|||
/**
|
||||
* Simulate one full 12-team CFP bracket.
|
||||
*
|
||||
* Seeding (teams sorted best→worst, index 0 = seed 1):
|
||||
* Seeding (teams sorted best→worst Elo, index 0 = seed 1):
|
||||
* First Round: [4]v[11], [5]v[10], [6]v[9], [7]v[8]
|
||||
* Quarterfinals: [0] vs fr4w, [3] vs fr1w, [2] vs fr2w, [1] vs fr3w
|
||||
* Semifinals: qf1w vs qf2w, qf3w vs qf4w
|
||||
|
|
@ -130,23 +182,28 @@ function simulateBracket(teams: Team[], counts: Map<string, PlacementCounts>): v
|
|||
const qf3 = simGame(teams[2], fr2.winner); // 3 vs 6/11 winner
|
||||
const qf4 = simGame(teams[1], fr3.winner); // 2 vs 7/10 winner
|
||||
|
||||
counts.get(qf1.loser.participantId)!.qfLoser++;
|
||||
counts.get(qf2.loser.participantId)!.qfLoser++;
|
||||
counts.get(qf3.loser.participantId)!.qfLoser++;
|
||||
counts.get(qf4.loser.participantId)!.qfLoser++;
|
||||
const bump = (id: string, key: keyof PlacementCounts) => {
|
||||
const entry = counts.get(id);
|
||||
if (entry) entry[key]++;
|
||||
};
|
||||
|
||||
bump(qf1.loser.participantId, "qfLoser");
|
||||
bump(qf2.loser.participantId, "qfLoser");
|
||||
bump(qf3.loser.participantId, "qfLoser");
|
||||
bump(qf4.loser.participantId, "qfLoser");
|
||||
|
||||
// ── Semifinals ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
const sf1 = simGame(qf1.winner, qf2.winner);
|
||||
const sf2 = simGame(qf3.winner, qf4.winner);
|
||||
|
||||
counts.get(sf1.loser.participantId)!.sfLoser++;
|
||||
counts.get(sf2.loser.participantId)!.sfLoser++;
|
||||
bump(sf1.loser.participantId, "sfLoser");
|
||||
bump(sf2.loser.participantId, "sfLoser");
|
||||
|
||||
// ── National Championship ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
const final = simGame(sf1.winner, sf2.winner);
|
||||
|
||||
counts.get(final.winner.participantId)!.champion++;
|
||||
counts.get(final.loser.participantId)!.finalist++;
|
||||
bump(final.winner.participantId, "champion");
|
||||
bump(final.loser.participantId, "finalist");
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// ─── Simulator ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
|
|
@ -161,8 +218,11 @@ export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
|
|||
.from(schema.participants)
|
||||
.where(eq(schema.participants.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
|
||||
|
||||
if (participants.length === 0) {
|
||||
throw new Error(`No participants found for sports season ${sportsSeasonId}.`);
|
||||
if (participants.length < BRACKET_SIZE) {
|
||||
throw new Error(
|
||||
`CFP simulator requires at least ${BRACKET_SIZE} participants, ` +
|
||||
`found ${participants.length}. Add all contender teams to the sports season.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// 2. Load Elo/FPI ratings and optional futures odds in a single query.
|
||||
|
|
@ -175,7 +235,7 @@ export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
|
|||
.from(schema.participantExpectedValues)
|
||||
.where(eq(schema.participantExpectedValues.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId));
|
||||
|
||||
// Build Elo and odds maps in a single pass over evRows.
|
||||
// Build Elo and raw odds maps in a single pass.
|
||||
const eloFromDb = new Map<string, number>();
|
||||
const rawOddsProbs = new Map<string, number>();
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -189,8 +249,7 @@ export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
|
|||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// 3. Build normalized odds probability map (vig removed).
|
||||
// If no sourceOdds, all teams get oddsProb = 0 → falls back to pure Elo.
|
||||
let normalizedOddsMap = new Map<string, number>();
|
||||
const normalizedOddsMap = new Map<string, number>();
|
||||
|
||||
if (rawOddsProbs.size > 0) {
|
||||
const rawSum = [...rawOddsProbs.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
|
||||
|
|
@ -198,11 +257,11 @@ export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
|
|||
normalizedOddsMap.set(id, rawSum > 0 ? prob / rawSum : 0);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// Backfill Elo from futures odds for any team that has sourceOdds but no sourceElo.
|
||||
// Backfill Elo from futures for any team missing sourceElo.
|
||||
if (eloFromDb.size < participants.length) {
|
||||
const oddsInput = [...rawOddsProbs.keys()]
|
||||
.filter((id) => !eloFromDb.has(id))
|
||||
.map((id) => ({ participantId: id, odds: evRows.find((r) => r.participantId === id)!.sourceOdds! }));
|
||||
const oddsInput = evRows
|
||||
.filter((r) => r.sourceOdds !== null && !eloFromDb.has(r.participantId))
|
||||
.map((r) => ({ participantId: r.participantId, odds: r.sourceOdds ?? 0 }));
|
||||
|
||||
if (oddsInput.length > 0) {
|
||||
const oddsEloMap = convertFuturesToElo(oddsInput, "american");
|
||||
|
|
@ -213,34 +272,42 @@ export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
|
|||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// 4. Build and seed team list (top 12 by blended strength, best→worst).
|
||||
// 4. Build team list with Elo, oddsProb, and selectionWeight.
|
||||
const hasOdds = normalizedOddsMap.size > 0;
|
||||
|
||||
const allTeams: Team[] = participants.map((p) => ({
|
||||
participantId: p.id,
|
||||
elo: eloFromDb.get(p.id) ?? 1500,
|
||||
oddsProb: normalizedOddsMap.get(p.id) ?? 0,
|
||||
selectionWeight: 0, // computed below
|
||||
}));
|
||||
|
||||
// Normalize Elo to [0,1] range for the blended sort score.
|
||||
const eloValues = allTeams.map((t) => t.elo);
|
||||
const minElo = Math.min(...eloValues);
|
||||
const eloRange = (Math.max(...eloValues) - minElo) || 1;
|
||||
|
||||
const seededTeams = [...allTeams].sort((a, b) => {
|
||||
const aScore = ELO_WEIGHT * ((a.elo - minElo) / eloRange) + ODDS_WEIGHT * a.oddsProb;
|
||||
const bScore = ELO_WEIGHT * ((b.elo - minElo) / eloRange) + ODDS_WEIGHT * b.oddsProb;
|
||||
return bScore - aScore;
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
if (seededTeams.length < BRACKET_SIZE) {
|
||||
throw new Error(
|
||||
`CFP simulator requires ${BRACKET_SIZE} participants, found ${seededTeams.length}. ` +
|
||||
`Add all teams to the sports season before running simulation.`
|
||||
);
|
||||
if (hasOdds) {
|
||||
// Selection weight = normalized championship implied probability.
|
||||
// This encodes both "probability of making the field" and "strength once there."
|
||||
for (const team of allTeams) {
|
||||
team.selectionWeight = normalizedOddsMap.get(team.participantId) ?? 0;
|
||||
}
|
||||
const bracketTeams = seededTeams.slice(0, BRACKET_SIZE);
|
||||
} else {
|
||||
// No odds: softmax on Elo so top-rated teams are strongly favoured.
|
||||
const eloValues = allTeams.map((t) => t.elo);
|
||||
const maxElo = Math.max(...eloValues);
|
||||
// Subtract max for numerical stability before exp().
|
||||
const expWeights = allTeams.map((t) => Math.exp((t.elo - maxElo) / SELECTION_TEMP));
|
||||
const expSum = expWeights.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
|
||||
for (let i = 0; i < allTeams.length; i++) {
|
||||
allTeams[i].selectionWeight = expWeights[i] / expSum;
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const preBracketMode = participants.length > BRACKET_SIZE;
|
||||
|
||||
// In post-bracket mode (exactly 12), sort once and reuse the same field every sim.
|
||||
const deterministicField = preBracketMode
|
||||
? null
|
||||
: [...allTeams].toSorted((a, b) => b.elo - a.elo);
|
||||
|
||||
// 5. Initialise placement count accumulators for all participants.
|
||||
// Teams outside the top 12 keep all zeros (0 EV).
|
||||
const allParticipantIds = participants.map((p) => p.id);
|
||||
const counts = new Map<string, PlacementCounts>(
|
||||
allParticipantIds.map((id) => [id, { champion: 0, finalist: 0, sfLoser: 0, qfLoser: 0 }])
|
||||
|
|
@ -248,17 +315,20 @@ export class NCAAFootballSimulator implements Simulator {
|
|||
|
||||
// 6. Run Monte Carlo simulations.
|
||||
for (let s = 0; s < NUM_SIMULATIONS; s++) {
|
||||
simulateBracket(bracketTeams, counts);
|
||||
const field = preBracketMode
|
||||
? sampleBracketField(allTeams, BRACKET_SIZE)
|
||||
: (deterministicField ?? []);
|
||||
simulateBracket(field, counts);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// 7. Convert counts to probability distributions and return.
|
||||
// SF losers: 2 per sim, so each team's share = sfLoser / (2 * N).
|
||||
// QF losers: 4 per sim, so each team's share = qfLoser / (4 * N).
|
||||
// 7. Convert counts to probability distributions.
|
||||
// SF losers: 2 per sim → each team's share = sfLoser / (2 * N).
|
||||
// QF losers: 4 per sim → each team's share = qfLoser / (4 * N).
|
||||
const sfDivisor = 2 * NUM_SIMULATIONS;
|
||||
const qfDivisor = 4 * NUM_SIMULATIONS;
|
||||
|
||||
return allParticipantIds.map((id) => {
|
||||
const c = counts.get(id)!;
|
||||
const c = counts.get(id) ?? { champion: 0, finalist: 0, sfLoser: 0, qfLoser: 0 };
|
||||
const sfProb = c.sfLoser / sfDivisor;
|
||||
const qfProb = c.qfLoser / qfDivisor;
|
||||
return {
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Add table
Reference in a new issue