Route every bracket-aware sport away from ICM, not just AFL
The previous commit gated the simulator re-run on a `bracketAware` flag set only on afl_bracket and llws_bracket, on the claim that every other simulator was bracket-blind and would resurrect eliminated teams if re-run. That claim was wrong. Eleven more read playoff_matches and honor isComplete/winnerId already: ucl, ncaam, ncaaw (both via ncaa-basketball), nba, nhl, snooker, world_cup, darts, cs2_major, college_hockey and nll. All thirteen are now flagged, so any sport with a bracket the simulator can read absorbs a result by re-running that simulator rather than through ICM. Two simulators are deliberately left off. playoff_bracket and ncaa_football_bracket declare a "bracket" setup section but never read playoff_matches, so re-running them really would re-draw the field. That mismatch runs the other way too — world_cup, darts_bracket and cs2_major_qualifying_points read the bracket without declaring the section — so setupSections is not a usable signal here and the flag stays separate from it, with both facts written down on the flag. The EV-source condition is also gone. It only asked whether the existing EVs came from a simulation, which protected nothing: the alternative to re-running was never leaving them alone, it was the ICM branch overwriting them anyway. Given two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins regardless of what wrote them. Tests: a bracket-blind simulator still goes through ICM, futures-odds EVs no longer divert a bracket-aware season away from the re-run, and the bracket-aware set is pinned in the manifest test so a new simulator is an explicit decision rather than a default. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPxDnSEKVoKx9HFcQ6gmcS
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4 changed files with 86 additions and 38 deletions
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@ -329,10 +329,11 @@ describe("probability-updater", () => {
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// ─── Bracket-aware simulator seasons ──────────────────────────────────────────
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//
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// The ICM branch re-derives a whole distribution from P(1st) alone and knows nothing about
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// the bracket, so it cannot see the placement floors an afl_10 seeding or a non-scoring-round
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// win has already banked — it will happily value a team below points the league has paid out.
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// For a season whose EVs came from a simulator that reads the bracket, re-running that
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// simulator is the correct refresh; for every other season ICM stays exactly as it was.
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// who is playing whom or what has already been decided, so it cannot see the placement floors
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// an afl_10 seeding or a non-scoring-round win has already banked — it will happily value a
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// team below points the league has paid out. Whenever the season has a simulator that reads
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// its bracket, that simulator is the better answer and is re-run instead. Only a season whose
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// simulator is bracket-blind (or has none) still goes through ICM.
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const evRow = (participantId: string, source: string) => ({
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id: `ev-${participantId}`,
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@ -456,19 +457,24 @@ describe("updateProbabilitiesAfterResult — simulator-backed seasons", () => {
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expect(result.errors[0]).toMatch(/Failed to re-run simulator/);
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});
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it("keeps the ICM path for a bracket-blind simulator", async () => {
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// Re-running one of these would re-draw the field and hand equity back to teams already
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// knocked out, so nothing changes for them.
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const { runner } = await setup({ evSource: "elo_simulation", simulatorType: "nba_bracket" });
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it("re-runs the simulator whatever wrote the EVs originally", async () => {
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// The alternative is not leaving them alone — ICM would overwrite them either way — so
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// futures-odds EVs are no reason to prefer the bracket-blind overwrite.
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const { runner } = await setup({ evSource: "futures_odds", simulatorType: "afl_bracket" });
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await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult("season-1", true);
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expect(runner.runSportsSeasonSimulation).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
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expect(icmWrites().length).toBeGreaterThan(0);
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expect(runner.runSportsSeasonSimulation).toHaveBeenCalledWith("season-1");
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expect(icmWrites()).toHaveLength(0);
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});
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it("keeps the ICM path when the EVs did not come from the simulator", async () => {
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const { runner } = await setup({ evSource: "futures_odds", simulatorType: "afl_bracket" });
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it("keeps the ICM path for a bracket-blind simulator", async () => {
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// ncaa_football_bracket declares a "bracket" setup section but never reads playoff_matches,
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// so re-running it would re-draw the field and hand equity back to eliminated teams.
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const { runner } = await setup({
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evSource: "elo_simulation",
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simulatorType: "ncaa_football_bracket",
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});
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await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult("season-1", true);
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@ -100,30 +100,25 @@ function createFinishedProbabilities(finalPosition: number): number[] {
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return probs;
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}
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/** EV sources written by a simulation run rather than by odds import or manual entry. */
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const SIMULATOR_EV_SOURCES = new Set(["elo_simulation", "performance_model"]);
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/**
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* Decide whether a season's still-alive participants should be refreshed by re-running its
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* Whether this season's still-alive participants should be refreshed by re-running its
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* simulator instead of by the ICM recalculation below.
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*
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* Two conditions, and both matter:
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* If the season has a simulator that reads its bracket, that simulator is simply a better
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* answer than ICM to "what happens from here": it seeds from the real draw and replays every
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* completed match, where ICM re-derives a whole distribution from P(1st) alone and knows
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* nothing about who is playing whom or what has already been decided. That blindness is what
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* makes ICM report a placement floor the league has already paid out as worth less than its
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* awarded points.
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*
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* - The simulator must be bracket-aware (manifest `bracketAware`). Re-running a
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* bracket-blind simulator after a result would re-draw the field and hand championship
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* equity back to teams that have already been knocked out — strictly worse than ICM.
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* Only AFL and LLWS read the real draw and replay completed matches.
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* - The EVs must actually have come from that simulator. If an admin entered them by hand
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* or imported them from futures odds, overwriting them with a simulation is not a refresh.
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* The finished-participant loop below rewrites rows to `manual`, so only the unfinished
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* rows — the ones about to be recalculated — are consulted.
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* Where the EVs originally came from is not consulted, because the alternative here is not
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* leaving them alone — the ICM branch overwrites them either way. Given the choice between
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* two overwrites, the bracket-aware one wins.
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*
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* The gate is `bracketAware`, not merely "has a simulator": re-running a bracket-blind
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* simulator would re-draw the field and hand equity back to teams already knocked out.
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*/
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async function shouldRerunSimulator(
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sportsSeasonId: string,
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unfinishedEVs: ParticipantEV[]
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): Promise<boolean> {
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if (!unfinishedEVs.some((ev) => SIMULATOR_EV_SOURCES.has(ev.source ?? ""))) return false;
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async function shouldRerunSimulator(sportsSeasonId: string): Promise<boolean> {
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const simulatorConfig = await getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig(sportsSeasonId);
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if (!simulatorConfig) return false;
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@ -178,7 +173,7 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
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ev => !finishedMap.has(ev.participantId)
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);
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if (unfinishedEVs.length > 0 && (await shouldRerunSimulator(sportsSeasonId, unfinishedEVs))) {
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if (unfinishedEVs.length > 0 && (await shouldRerunSimulator(sportsSeasonId))) {
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// The simulator reads the bracket, so it already knows this result: it seeds from the
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// real draw and replays every completed match. Re-running it keeps each participant's
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// distribution consistent with the games actually played — including the placement
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@ -30,6 +30,33 @@ describe("simulator manifest", () => {
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}
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});
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// updateProbabilitiesAfterResult sends a season down the re-run path or the ICM path purely
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// on this flag, and getting it wrong is silent in both directions: set it on a simulator
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// that re-plays decided games and eliminated teams come back to life; leave it off a
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// bracket-aware one and ICM keeps reporting placement floors as worth less than the points
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// already awarded. Pinning the set makes a new simulator an explicit decision rather than a
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// default. To add one, confirm it reads playoff_matches AND honors isComplete/winnerId.
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it("pins which simulators are bracket-aware", () => {
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const bracketAware = SIMULATOR_TYPES.filter((t) => SIMULATOR_MANIFEST[t].bracketAware);
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expect(bracketAware.toSorted()).toEqual(
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[
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"afl_bracket",
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"college_hockey_bracket",
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"cs2_major_qualifying_points",
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"darts_bracket",
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"llws_bracket",
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"nba_bracket",
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"ncaam_bracket",
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"ncaaw_bracket",
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"nhl_bracket",
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"nll_bracket",
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"snooker_bracket",
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"ucl_bracket",
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"world_cup",
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].toSorted()
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);
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});
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it("only derives inputs from declared optional inputs", () => {
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for (const simulatorType of SIMULATOR_TYPES) {
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const profile = SIMULATOR_MANIFEST[simulatorType];
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@ -35,13 +35,22 @@ export interface SimulatorManifestProfile {
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setupSections: SimulatorSetupSection[];
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minParticipantInputs?: number;
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/**
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* The simulator reads the season's generated bracket: it uses the real draw as its seeding
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* and replays completed matches from their recorded result, instead of re-drawing the field
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* every iteration.
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* The simulator reads the season's generated bracket: it seeds from the real draw and
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* replays completed matches from their recorded result, rather than re-drawing the field
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* and re-playing decided games every iteration.
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*
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* Only such a simulator can be safely re-run once results are in — a bracket-blind one puts
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* knocked-out teams back in contention. updateProbabilitiesAfterResult reads this to decide
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* whether to re-run the simulator or fall back to the generic ICM recalculation.
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* updateProbabilitiesAfterResult reads this to decide whether a result should be absorbed
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* by re-running the simulator or by the generic ICM recalculation. Re-running is both more
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* accurate and the only option that respects a banked placement floor, but it is only safe
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* here: re-running a bracket-blind simulator would re-draw the field and hand equity back
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* to teams already knocked out.
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*
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* Both halves are required. A simulator that reads the draw but re-simulates games already
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* played is NOT bracket-aware for this purpose — it resurrects eliminated teams just the
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* same. Check for an `isComplete`/`winnerId` replay before setting this on a new simulator.
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*
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* This is deliberately separate from `setupSections: ["bracket"]`, which only drives admin
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* links and a readiness warning and does not track this accurately in either direction.
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*/
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bracketAware?: boolean;
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}
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@ -81,6 +90,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
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optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds"],
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derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
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setupSections: ["participants", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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ncaam_bracket: {
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defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, ratingScaleFactor: 7.5, inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, fallbackRatingDelta: 5 } },
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@ -88,6 +98,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
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optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "sourceElo", "seed", "region"],
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derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] },
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setupSections: ["participants", "ratings", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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ncaaw_bracket: {
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defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, inputPolicy: { ratingMin: 0.70, ratingMax: 0.97, missingRatingStrategy: "worstKnownMinus", fallbackRatingDelta: 0.01 } },
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@ -95,6 +106,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
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optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "seed", "region"],
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derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] },
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setupSections: ["participants", "ratings", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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nba_bracket: {
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defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 400, seasonGames: 82 },
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@ -102,6 +114,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
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optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedWins"],
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derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
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setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings", "bracket"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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nhl_bracket: {
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defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 1000, seasonGames: 82, overtimeRate: 0.23 },
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@ -109,6 +122,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
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optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedWins"],
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derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
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setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings", "bracket"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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nfl_bracket: {
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defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 400, seasonGames: 17, homeFieldElo: 48 },
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@ -148,6 +162,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
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requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
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optionalInputs: ["worldRanking", "seed"],
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setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings", "bracket"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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tennis_qualifying_points: {
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defaultConfig: { iterations: 10_000, eloDivisor: 400, fallbackElo: 1500 },
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@ -175,18 +190,21 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
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optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
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derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
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setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "futuresOdds", "events"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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darts_bracket: {
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defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, iterations: 10_000, eloDivisor: 400 },
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requiredInputs: ["sourceElo", "worldRanking"],
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optionalInputs: ["seed"],
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setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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cs2_major_qualifying_points: {
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defaultConfig: { iterations: 10_000, fieldSize: 32, guaranteedCount: 12 },
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requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
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optionalInputs: ["worldRanking", "metadata"],
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setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings", "cs2Setup", "events"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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ncaa_football_bracket: {
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defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, parityFactor: 400, bracketSize: 12, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.4 } },
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optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "worldRanking"],
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derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["sourceOdds"] },
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setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "rankings", "futuresOdds", "bracket"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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brackt: {
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defaultConfig: { iterations: 20_000 },
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optionalInputs: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds", "seed"],
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derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },
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setupSections: ["participants", "eloRatings", "regularStandings", "bracket"],
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bracketAware: true,
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},
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mls_bracket: {
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defaultConfig: {
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