diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
index 1df59e7..9c4deda 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/darts-simulator.test.ts
@@ -40,9 +40,9 @@ describe("setWinProb", () => {
     expect(setWinProb(1000, 3000)).toBeGreaterThan(0);
   });
 
-  it("calibration: 100-pt gap → ~55% per set (ELO_DIVISOR=500)", () => {
-    // 1 / (1 + e^(-100/500)) ≈ 0.5499
-    expect(setWinProb(1900, 1800)).toBeCloseTo(0.5499, 2);
+  it("calibration: 100-pt gap → ~56% per set (ELO_DIVISOR=400)", () => {
+    // 1 / (1 + e^(-100/400)) ≈ 0.5622
+    expect(setWinProb(1900, 1800)).toBeCloseTo(0.5622, 2);
   });
 });
 
diff --git a/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts b/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
index 922e6ba..79efc8d 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/darts-simulator.ts
@@ -59,12 +59,12 @@ const NUM_SIMULATIONS = 50000;
  * Lower  = sharper (Elo differences matter more).
  *
  * Standard chess uses 400. Snooker (more random than chess) uses 700.
- * Darts is moderately volatile; 500 gives:
- *   100-pt gap → ~55% per set
- *   300-pt gap → ~63% per set
- *   500-pt gap → ~73% per set
+ * Darts at the elite level is relatively skill-dominated; 400 gives:
+ *   100-pt gap → ~56% per set
+ *   300-pt gap → ~67% per set
+ *   500-pt gap → ~78% per set
  */
-const ELO_DIVISOR = 500;
+const ELO_DIVISOR = 400;
 
 /**
  * Sets needed to win per round, in bracket order (R1 first, Final last).
@@ -289,7 +289,10 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
       participantIds.push(m.participant1Id, m.participant2Id);
     }
 
-    const fallbackElo = 1600;
+    // 1400 reflects the typical strength of unseeded PDC World Championship
+    // qualifiers (regional/Q-School players), who are significantly weaker than
+    // the seeded tour players.
+    const fallbackElo = 1400;
 
     // Cache matchWinProb — Elo values are fixed across simulations.
     const matchProbCache = new Map<string, number>();
@@ -457,7 +460,10 @@ export class DartsSimulator implements Simulator {
       );
     }
 
-    const fallbackElo = 1600;
+    // 1400 reflects the typical strength of unseeded PDC World Championship
+    // qualifiers (regional/Q-School players), who are significantly weaker than
+    // the seeded tour players.
+    const fallbackElo = 1400;
 
     // Sort participants by world ranking (ascending). Fall back to Elo order (descending) for
     // any without a ranking, then alphabetical as a final tiebreak.