Merge pull request 'claude/mlb-simulator-projected-wins-elo-siess8' (#146) from claude/mlb-simulator-projected-wins-elo-siess8 into main

Reviewed-on: #146

app/models/__tests__/simulator-inputs.test.ts

@@ -111,4 +111,50 @@ describe("simulator input model", () => {
     expect(byParticipant.get("direct-elo")?.sourceElo).toBe(1600);
     expect(byParticipant.get("generated-elo")?.sourceElo).toBeNull();
   });
+
+  it("hides an Elo flagged as projection-derived so the projection is re-derived", async () => {
+    // This is what stops a stale Elo from winning the baseEloPriority race. A row
+    // carrying projectedWins and a projectedWins method flag must surface with a
+    // null sourceElo, so resolveSourceElos falls through to the projection rather
+    // than reusing an Elo that was itself derived from an older projection.
+    mockDb.query.seasonParticipants.findMany.mockResolvedValue([
+      { id: "projected" },
+      { id: "hand-entered" },
+    ]);
+    mockDb.query.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.findMany.mockResolvedValue([
+      {
+        participantId: "projected",
+        sourceOdds: null,
+        sourceElo: 1561,
+        worldRanking: null,
+        rating: null,
+        projectedWins: "95.00",
+        projectedTablePoints: null,
+        seed: null,
+        region: null,
+        metadata: { sourceEloMethod: "projectedWins" },
+      },
+      {
+        participantId: "hand-entered",
+        sourceOdds: null,
+        sourceElo: 1561,
+        worldRanking: null,
+        rating: null,
+        projectedWins: "95.00",
+        projectedTablePoints: null,
+        seed: null,
+        region: null,
+        metadata: {},
+      },
+    ]);
+    mockDb.query.seasonParticipantExpectedValues.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+
+    const inputs = await getParticipantSimulatorInputs("season-1");
+    const byParticipant = new Map(inputs.map((input) => [input.participantId, input]));
+
+    expect(byParticipant.get("projected")?.sourceElo).toBeNull();
+    expect(byParticipant.get("projected")?.projectedWins).toBe(95);
+    // No flag means the admin entered that Elo themselves — it is trusted as direct.
+    expect(byParticipant.get("hand-entered")?.sourceElo).toBe(1561);
+  });
 });

app/models/simulator.ts

@@ -359,18 +359,28 @@ export async function batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs(
           region: sql`COALESCE(excluded.region, ${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.region})`,
           // Metadata carries the method flags (sourceEloMethod/ratingMethod) that
           // tell readers whether the stored Elo/rating is generated vs. a trusted
-          // direct value. When a caller supplies explicit metadata, use it as-is
+          // direct value. Two rules apply, and both always apply — they are not
-          // (prepareSimulatorInputsForRun and the projection importer set the
+          // alternatives:
-          // correct flags). Otherwise preserve existing metadata, but drop the
+          //
-          // method flag for any column receiving a fresh direct value — otherwise a
+          //   1. Drop the method flag for any column receiving a fresh direct
-          // stale "generated" flag would cause that newly-entered Elo/rating to be
+          //      value, otherwise a stale "generated" flag would cause that
-          // filtered out as derived (see getParticipantSimulatorInputs).
+          //      newly-entered Elo/rating to be filtered out as derived (see
-          metadata: sql`CASE
+          //      getParticipantSimulatorInputs).
-            WHEN excluded.metadata IS NOT NULL THEN excluded.metadata
+          //   2. Merge any metadata the caller supplied over the result
-            ELSE COALESCE(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb)
+          //      (prepareSimulatorInputsForRun and the projection importers set the
+          //      correct flags) — a merge rather than a replace so a caller that
+          //      only needs to stamp one method flag does not wipe unrelated keys.
+          //
+          // Ordering matters: strip first, then merge, so a caller stamping one flag
+          // still gets the other column's stale flag cleared. Running these as
+          // exclusive CASE branches instead would mean a bulk row carrying both a
+          // direct `rating` and a `projectedWins` (which stamps sourceEloMethod)
+          // silently kept a stale ratingMethod, hiding the rating it just set.
+          metadata: sql`(
+            COALESCE(${schema.seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs.metadata}, '{}'::jsonb)
               - (CASE WHEN excluded.source_elo IS NOT NULL THEN 'sourceEloMethod' ELSE '' END)
               - (CASE WHEN excluded.rating IS NOT NULL THEN 'ratingMethod' ELSE '' END)
-          END`,
+          ) || COALESCE(excluded.metadata, '{}'::jsonb)`,
           updatedAt: sql`excluded.updated_at`,
         },
       });

app/routes/__tests__/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.helpers.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+
+import {
+  parseBaseEloPriorityChoice,
+  projectionMethodMetadata,
+  resolvedInputMethodLabel,
+} from "../admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.helpers";
+import { DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY } from "~/services/simulations/input-policy";
+
+describe("projectionMethodMetadata", () => {
+  it("flags a row that supplies projected wins and no Elo", () => {
+    expect(projectionMethodMetadata(undefined, 95, undefined)).toEqual({
+      sourceEloMethod: "projectedWins",
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("flags a row that supplies projected table points and no Elo", () => {
+    expect(projectionMethodMetadata(undefined, undefined, 76.5)).toEqual({
+      sourceEloMethod: "projectedTablePoints",
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("leaves metadata alone when the row supplies an explicit Elo", () => {
+    // An explicit Elo is a direct entry and must stay trusted, even alongside a
+    // projection — the upsert then clears any stale generated flag.
+    expect(projectionMethodMetadata(1600, 95, undefined)).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+
+  it("leaves metadata alone for a row with neither", () => {
+    expect(projectionMethodMetadata(undefined, undefined, undefined)).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+
+  it("prefers wins over table points when a row somehow carries both", () => {
+    expect(projectionMethodMetadata(undefined, 95, 76.5)).toEqual({
+      sourceEloMethod: "projectedWins",
+    });
+  });
+});
+
+describe("parseBaseEloPriorityChoice", () => {
+  it("puts projections ahead of raw Elo", () => {
+    expect(parseBaseEloPriorityChoice("projectionsFirst", DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY)).toEqual([
+      "projectedWins",
+      "projectedTablePoints",
+      "sourceElo",
+    ]);
+  });
+
+  it("puts raw Elo first for eloFirst", () => {
+    expect(parseBaseEloPriorityChoice("eloFirst", DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY)).toEqual(
+      DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("keeps the stored ordering when the select was not on the form", () => {
+    // Simulators with no projection alternative never render the control; saving
+    // other config must not rewrite their ordering.
+    const custom: typeof DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY = ["projectedWins", "sourceElo"];
+    expect(parseBaseEloPriorityChoice(null, custom)).toEqual(custom);
+  });
+
+  it("preserves the relative order of the projection keys", () => {
+    expect(
+      parseBaseEloPriorityChoice("projectionsFirst", [
+        "projectedTablePoints",
+        "sourceElo",
+        "projectedWins",
+      ])
+    ).toEqual(["projectedTablePoints", "projectedWins", "sourceElo"]);
+  });
+
+  it("round-trips: flipping back restores Elo-first", () => {
+    const flipped = parseBaseEloPriorityChoice("projectionsFirst", DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY);
+    expect(parseBaseEloPriorityChoice("eloFirst", flipped)).toEqual(DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY);
+  });
+});
+
+describe("resolvedInputMethodLabel", () => {
+  it("badges nothing for a directly entered Elo or rating", () => {
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("direct")).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it("badges both projection methods the same way", () => {
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("projectedWins")).toBe("from projections");
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("projectedTablePoints")).toBe("from projections");
+  });
+
+  it("distinguishes futures and blended Elo", () => {
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("sourceOdds")).toBe("from futures");
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("blend")).toBe("blended");
+  });
+
+  it("badges every missing-input strategy as a fallback", () => {
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("fallbackElo")).toBe("fallback");
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("fallbackRating")).toBe("fallback");
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("averageKnown")).toBe("fallback");
+    expect(resolvedInputMethodLabel("worstKnownMinus")).toBe("fallback");
+  });
+});

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.elo-ratings.tsx

@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ import {
   projectedWinsToElo,
 } from '~/services/probability-engine';
 import { runSportsSeasonSimulation } from '~/services/simulations/runner';
-import { getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig } from '~/models/simulator';
+import { getParticipantSimulatorInputs, getSportsSeasonSimulatorConfig } from '~/models/simulator';
 
 // Simulator types that use worldRanking in addition to sourceElo
 const RANKING_SIMULATOR_TYPES = new Set(['darts_bracket', 'cs2_major_qualifying_points', 'college_hockey_bracket']);
@@ -80,14 +80,39 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
 
   const participants = await findParticipantsBySportsSeasonId(sportsSeasonId);
   const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(sportsSeasonId);
+  const simulatorInputs = await getParticipantSimulatorInputs(sportsSeasonId);
 
-  const existingData: Record<string, { elo: number | null; ranking: number | null }> = {};
+  // The projection a participant was actually saved with. Read it back verbatim:
-  for (const ev of existingEVs) {
+  // deriving the field from the stored Elo instead (as this page used to) shows the
-    existingData[ev.participantId] = {
+  // admin a different number than they typed, because wins → Elo rounds to an
-      elo: ev.sourceElo ?? null,
+  // integer Elo and a simulation run then re-resolves that Elo through the input
-      ranking: ev.worldRanking ?? null,
+  // policy (clamping, and blending in futures odds when a season has them).
+  const projectionsByParticipant = new Map(
+    simulatorInputs.map((input) => [
+      input.participantId,
+      { projectedWins: input.projectedWins, projectedTablePoints: input.projectedTablePoints },
+    ])
+  );
+
+  const existingData: Record<
+    string,
+    { elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; projectedWins: number | null; projectedTablePoints: number | null }
+  > = {};
+  for (const participant of participants) {
+    const projection = projectionsByParticipant.get(participant.id);
+    existingData[participant.id] = {
+      elo: null,
+      ranking: null,
+      projectedWins: projection?.projectedWins ?? null,
+      projectedTablePoints: projection?.projectedTablePoints ?? null,
     };
   }
+  for (const ev of existingEVs) {
+    const existing = existingData[ev.participantId];
+    if (!existing) continue;
+    existing.elo = ev.sourceElo ?? null;
+    existing.ranking = ev.worldRanking ?? null;
+  }
 
   const usesRanking = RANKING_SIMULATOR_TYPES.has(sportsSeason.sport?.simulatorType ?? '');
 
@@ -252,7 +277,16 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
     if (simulatorConfig) {
       participants.forEach(p => {
         const d = existingData[p.id];
-        if (d?.elo !== null && d?.elo !== undefined) {
+        // A stored projection is shown exactly as it was entered. Only fall back to
+        // deriving it from the Elo when this season has no projection saved (a
+        // season that has only ever had Elos entered still gets a useful starting
+        // point) — that derived value is lossy and must never overwrite a real one.
+        const stored = simulatorConfig.projectionInput === 'tablePoints'
+          ? d?.projectedTablePoints
+          : d?.projectedWins;
+        if (stored !== null && stored !== undefined) {
+          initial[p.id] = stored.toString();
+        } else if (d?.elo !== null && d?.elo !== undefined) {
           initial[p.id] = (simulatorConfig.projectionInput === 'tablePoints'
             ? eloToProjectedTablePoints(d.elo, simulatorConfig.seasonGames, simulatorConfig.parityFactor, simulatorConfig.averageOpponentElo)
             : eloToProjectedWins(d.elo, simulatorConfig.seasonGames, simulatorConfig.parityFactor, simulatorConfig.averageOpponentElo)
@@ -265,8 +299,8 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
 
   const [bulkText, setBulkText] = useState('');
   const [parseResults, setParseResults] = useState<{
-    matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; inputName: string }>;
+    matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; projection: number | null; inputName: string }>;
-    unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null }>;
+    unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; projection: number | null }>;
   } | null>(null);
 
   function findParticipantMatch(inputName: string) {
@@ -291,8 +325,8 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
 
   function parseBulkText() {
     const lines = bulkText.split('\n');
-    const matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; inputName: string }> = [];
+    const matched: Array<{ participantId: string; name: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; projection: number | null; inputName: string }> = [];
-    const unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null }> = [];
+    const unmatched: Array<{ inputName: string; elo: number | null; ranking: number | null; projection: number | null }> = [];
     const seen = new Set<string>();
 
     for (const line of lines) {
@@ -315,9 +349,9 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
         const participant = findParticipantMatch(inputName);
         if (participant && !seen.has(participant.id)) {
           seen.add(participant.id);
-          matched.push({ participantId: participant.id, name: participant.name, elo, ranking: null, inputName });
+          matched.push({ participantId: participant.id, name: participant.name, elo, ranking: null, projection: projectedWins, inputName });
         } else if (!participant) {
-          unmatched.push({ inputName, elo, ranking: null });
+          unmatched.push({ inputName, elo, ranking: null, projection: projectedWins });
         }
       } else {
         const match = usesRanking
@@ -342,9 +376,9 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
         const participant = findParticipantMatch(inputName);
         if (participant && !seen.has(participant.id)) {
           seen.add(participant.id);
-          matched.push({ participantId: participant.id, name: participant.name, elo, ranking, inputName });
+          matched.push({ participantId: participant.id, name: participant.name, elo, ranking, projection: null, inputName });
         } else if (!participant) {
-          unmatched.push({ inputName, elo, ranking });
+          unmatched.push({ inputName, elo, ranking, projection: null });
         }
       }
     }
@@ -360,11 +394,11 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonEloRatings() {
     for (const m of parseResults.matched) {
       if (m.elo !== null) newElos[m.participantId] = m.elo.toString();
       if (m.ranking !== null) newRanks[m.participantId] = m.ranking.toString();
-      if (inputMode === 'projectedWins' && simulatorConfig && m.elo !== null) {
+      // The pasted number goes in as typed. Round-tripping it through the derived
-        newWins[m.participantId] = (simulatorConfig.projectionInput === 'tablePoints'
+      // Elo (as this used to) drifts it by up to half an Elo point — a pasted 95
-          ? eloToProjectedTablePoints(m.elo, simulatorConfig.seasonGames, simulatorConfig.parityFactor, simulatorConfig.averageOpponentElo)
+      // came back as 95.1 before anything was even saved.
-          : eloToProjectedWins(m.elo, simulatorConfig.seasonGames, simulatorConfig.parityFactor, simulatorConfig.averageOpponentElo)
+      if (inputMode === 'projectedWins' && m.projection !== null) {
-        ).toFixed(1);
+        newWins[m.participantId] = m.projection.toString();
       }
     }
     setEloValues(newElos);
@@ -489,7 +523,10 @@ Mark Selby, 2432`
                       <div key={m.participantId} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
                         <span className="text-muted-foreground">{m.inputName}</span>
                         <span className="font-medium">
-                          {m.name} &rarr; {m.elo !== null ? `Elo ${m.elo}` : 'No Elo'}
+                          {m.name} &rarr;{' '}
+                          {m.projection !== null
+                            ? `${m.projection} ${projectionUnit} (Elo ${m.elo})`
+                            : m.elo !== null ? `Elo ${m.elo}` : 'No Elo'}
                           {usesRanking && m.ranking !== null ? `, ${rankLabel} #${m.ranking}` : ''}
                         </span>
                       </div>
@@ -509,7 +546,9 @@ Mark Selby, 2432`
                       <div key={u.inputName} className="flex justify-between px-3 py-1.5">
                         <span>{u.inputName}</span>
                         <span className="font-medium">
-                          {u.elo !== null ? `Elo ${u.elo}` : 'No Elo'}
+                          {u.projection !== null
+                            ? `${u.projection} ${projectionUnit} (Elo ${u.elo})`
+                            : u.elo !== null ? `Elo ${u.elo}` : 'No Elo'}
                           {usesRanking && u.ranking !== null ? `, ${rankLabel} #${u.ranking}` : ''}
                         </span>
                       </div>
@@ -540,7 +579,7 @@ Mark Selby, 2432`
             </CardTitle>
             <CardDescription>
               {inputMode === 'projectedWins'
-                ? `Enter each team's projected total season ${projectionUnit}. Converted to Elo automatically. Saving will run the simulation and update expected values.`
+                ? `Enter each team's projected total season ${projectionUnit} — the number you enter is stored as-is and re-derives the Elo on every run. Mid-season it is treated as a projected final total, so the simulation spreads the difference over the games still to play. Saving will run the simulation and update expected values.`
                 : usesRanking
                   ? `Enter each ${participantLabel.toLowerCase()}'s Elo${allowsRankOnly ? ' (optional)' : ''} and ${rankLabel}. Saving will automatically run the simulation and update expected values.`
                   : `Enter each ${participantLabel.toLowerCase()}'s current Elo rating. Saving will automatically run the simulation and update expected values.`}

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.helpers.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+/**
+ * Pure helpers for the Simulator Setup page, split out so they can be unit tested
+ * without pulling the route's server-only imports into the test.
+ */
+
+import type {
+  BaseEloKey,
+  ResolvedRating,
+  ResolvedSourceElo,
+} from "~/services/simulations/input-policy";
+
+/**
+ * Short badge text for how a participant's Elo or rating was produced, or null for a
+ * directly entered one — the unremarkable case, which needs no badge.
+ *
+ * The preview table needs this because a generated value is deliberately hidden from
+ * `getParticipantSimulatorInputs`, so without the resolved value plus this label the
+ * row reads as "nothing saved" and a projection losing to a raw Elo is invisible.
+ *
+ * Every remaining method is a missing-input fallback (`fallbackElo`,
+ * `fallbackRating`, `averageKnown`, `worstKnownMinus`, `block`), which all read the
+ * same way to an admin: this participant had nothing usable of its own.
+ */
+export function resolvedInputMethodLabel(
+  method: ResolvedSourceElo["method"] | ResolvedRating["method"]
+): string | null {
+  switch (method) {
+    case "direct":
+      return null;
+    case "projectedWins":
+    case "projectedTablePoints":
+      return "from projections";
+    case "sourceOdds":
+      return "from futures";
+    case "blend":
+      return "blended";
+    default:
+      return "fallback";
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * Method flag for a bulk-input row that carries a projection instead of an Elo, or
+ * undefined when the row says nothing about how its Elo was produced.
+ *
+ * A row supplying a projection but no explicit Elo means "derive the Elo from this
+ * projection". Stamping the flag marks whatever Elo is already stored as generated,
+ * so `getParticipantSimulatorInputs` hides it and `resolveSourceElos` re-derives
+ * from the projection — without it, the non-destructive upsert leaves a stale
+ * hand-entered Elo in place, and that Elo wins the `baseEloPriority` race so the
+ * projection is written to the database and then ignored on every run.
+ *
+ * Returning undefined (rather than an empty object) matters: the upsert only
+ * preserves existing metadata, and clears a stale flag for a fresh direct Elo, when
+ * the incoming metadata is null.
+ */
+export function projectionMethodMetadata(
+  sourceElo: number | undefined,
+  projectedWins: number | undefined,
+  projectedTablePoints: number | undefined
+): Record<string, unknown> | undefined {
+  if (sourceElo !== undefined) return undefined;
+  if (projectedWins !== undefined) return { sourceEloMethod: "projectedWins" };
+  if (projectedTablePoints !== undefined) return { sourceEloMethod: "projectedTablePoints" };
+  return undefined;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Translate the Base Elo Source select into a full `baseEloPriority` list. Only the
+ * head of the list is user-facing (raw Elo vs. projections); the remaining keys keep
+ * their existing relative order so a season that already has a custom ordering is
+ * not silently flattened.
+ */
+export function parseBaseEloPriorityChoice(
+  value: FormDataEntryValue | null,
+  current: BaseEloKey[]
+): BaseEloKey[] {
+  // The select only renders for simulators that can derive Elo from a projection.
+  // When it was not on the form there is no choice to apply, so keep what is stored
+  // rather than silently rewriting the season's ordering.
+  if (value === null) return current;
+  const projections = current.filter((key) => key !== "sourceElo");
+  return value === "projectionsFirst"
+    ? [...projections, "sourceElo"]
+    : ["sourceElo", ...projections];
+}

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.tsx

@@ -32,10 +32,17 @@ import {
 } from "~/services/simulations/manifest";
 import {
   getSimulatorInputPolicy,
+  resolveRatings,
+  resolveSourceElos,
   type MissingEloStrategy,
   type MissingRatingStrategy,
 } from "~/services/simulations/input-policy";
 import { runSportsSeasonSimulation } from "~/services/simulations/runner";
+import {
+  parseBaseEloPriorityChoice,
+  projectionMethodMetadata,
+  resolvedInputMethodLabel,
+} from "./admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulator.helpers";
 
 export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
   return [{ title: `Simulator Setup - ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
@@ -75,13 +82,64 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
     ...config.profile.requiredInputs,
     ...config.profile.optionalInputs,
   ]);
+
+  // The Elo each participant will actually run with, and which source produced it.
+  // Without this the preview is misleading: getParticipantSimulatorInputs blanks a
+  // generated Elo (so it is re-derived rather than frozen), which reads as "nothing
+  // saved" — and a raw Elo silently beating a projection is invisible.
+  //
+  // Keyed off `relevantInputs`, not requiredInputs: the preview renders these
+  // columns solely from these maps, so gating on "required" would blank a stored
+  // value for every simulator that treats the input as optional (playoff_bracket
+  // and ncaam_bracket for Elo, golf_qualifying_points for rating).
+  const resolvedEloRows = Object.fromEntries(
+    relevantInputs.has("sourceElo")
+      ? [...resolveSourceElos(inputs, config.profile, config.config).values()].map((resolved) => [
+          resolved.participantId,
+          { sourceElo: resolved.sourceElo, method: resolved.method },
+        ])
+      : []
+  );
+  // Same for ratings, which are blanked by the same rule when generated. The
+  // preview's "missing a required input" marker reads both, so it agrees with
+  // readiness instead of flagging every participant a projection resolved.
+  const resolvedRatingRows = Object.fromEntries(
+    relevantInputs.has("rating")
+      ? [...resolveRatings(inputs, config.profile, config.config).values()].map((resolved) => [
+          resolved.participantId,
+          { rating: resolved.rating, method: resolved.method },
+        ])
+      : []
+  );
   const inputColumns = DISPLAY_INPUT_ORDER.filter((key) => relevantInputs.has(key)).map((key) => ({
     key,
     label: simulatorInputLabel(key),
     required: config.profile.requiredInputs.includes(key),
   }));
 
-  return { sportsSeason, participants, config, inputRows, readiness, inputPolicy, inputColumns };
+  // The projection this simulator can derive Elo from, labelled here for the same
+  // reason as inputColumns: calling simulatorInputLabel from the rendered component
+  // would pull the manifest (and through it the registry and every simulator) into
+  // the client bundle.
+  const projectionEloKey = (config.profile.derivableInputs?.sourceElo ?? []).find(
+    (key) => key === "projectedWins" || key === "projectedTablePoints"
+  );
+  const projectionEloOption = projectionEloKey
+    ? { key: projectionEloKey, label: simulatorInputLabel(projectionEloKey) }
+    : null;
+
+  return {
+    sportsSeason,
+    participants,
+    config,
+    inputRows,
+    readiness,
+    inputPolicy,
+    inputColumns,
+    resolvedEloRows,
+    resolvedRatingRows,
+    projectionEloOption,
+  };
 }
 
 interface ActionData {
@@ -124,6 +182,7 @@ const HONORED_ENGINE_KNOBS = new Set([
   "baseDrawRate",
   "drawDecay",
   "ratingScaleFactor",
+  "projectedWinsWeight",
 ]);
 
 function parseOptionalNumber(value: string | undefined): number | null {
@@ -232,17 +291,28 @@ function parseInputCsv(
       continue;
     }
 
+    const sourceElo = parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("sourceElo") ?? -1]) ?? undefined;
+    const projectedWins = parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("projectedWins") ?? -1]) ?? undefined;
+    const projectedTablePoints = parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("projectedTablePoints") ?? -1]) ?? undefined;
+
     inputs.push({
       participantId,
       sportsSeasonId,
-      sourceElo: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("sourceElo") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
+      sourceElo,
       sourceOdds: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("sourceOdds") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
       worldRanking: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("worldRanking") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
       rating: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("rating") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
-      projectedWins: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("projectedWins") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
+      projectedWins,
-      projectedTablePoints: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("projectedTablePoints") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
+      projectedTablePoints,
       seed: parseOptionalNumber(cols[indexes.get("seed") ?? -1]) ?? undefined,
       region: cols[indexes.get("region") ?? -1] || undefined,
+      // A row that supplies a projection but no explicit Elo means "derive the Elo
+      // from this projection". Stamping the method flag marks whatever Elo is
+      // already stored as generated, so getParticipantSimulatorInputs hides it and
+      // resolveSourceElos re-derives from the projection instead of letting a stale
+      // Elo win the baseEloPriority race. Mirrors the Elo Ratings page's
+      // projections mode.
+      metadata: projectionMethodMetadata(sourceElo, projectedWins, projectedTablePoints),
     });
   }
 
@@ -312,6 +382,7 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs): Promise<Act
         ...currentPolicy,
         missingEloStrategy: parseMissingEloStrategy(formData.get("missingEloStrategy")),
         missingRatingStrategy: parseMissingRatingStrategy(formData.get("missingRatingStrategy")),
+        baseEloPriority: parseBaseEloPriorityChoice(formData.get("baseEloPriority"), currentPolicy.baseEloPriority),
         // Stored as-is; getSimulatorInputPolicy clamps to [0,1] on read.
         oddsWeight: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "oddsWeight", currentPolicy.oddsWeight),
         fallbackElo: parsePolicyNumber(formData, "fallbackElo", currentPolicy.fallbackElo),
@@ -384,6 +455,7 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
   const isSubmitting = navigation.state === "submitting";
   const setupSections = config.profile.setupSections;
   const sourceEloAlternatives = config.profile.derivableInputs?.sourceElo ?? [];
+  const projectionsOutrankElo = inputPolicy.baseEloPriority[0] !== "sourceElo";
   const ratingAlternatives = config.profile.derivableInputs?.rating ?? [];
   const showsInputPolicy =
     config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo") || config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("rating");
@@ -397,7 +469,7 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
 
   // Preview columns are resolved server-side in the loader (see note there) and
   // arrive as plain data, so this client component never imports the manifest.
-  const { inputColumns } = loaderData;
+  const { inputColumns, resolvedEloRows, resolvedRatingRows, projectionEloOption } = loaderData;
   const requiredInputs = config.profile.requiredInputs;
   const gridTemplate = `2fr repeat(${Math.max(inputColumns.length, 1)}, 1fr)`;
   // For this sport the inputs live on a dedicated page, not the shared bulk paste.
@@ -409,8 +481,17 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
           : null)
     : null;
 
-  const isRowIncomplete = (input: (typeof inputRows)[number]["input"]) =>
+  // A required Elo/rating counts as present when the input policy resolves one,
-    requiredInputs.some((key) => input?.[key] === null || input?.[key] === undefined);
+  // not only when it is stored directly: getParticipantSimulatorInputs deliberately
+  // blanks a generated value so it is re-derived each run, so reading the raw input
+  // alone would mark every projection-configured participant as missing.
+  const isRowIncomplete = (participantId: string, input: (typeof inputRows)[number]["input"]) =>
+    requiredInputs.some((key) => {
+      if (input?.[key] !== null && input?.[key] !== undefined) return false;
+      if (key === "sourceElo") return resolvedEloRows[participantId] === undefined;
+      if (key === "rating") return resolvedRatingRows[participantId] === undefined;
+      return true;
+    });
 
   const [search, setSearch] = useState("");
   const [onlyMissing, setOnlyMissing] = useState(false);
@@ -420,11 +501,11 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
     const normalizedSearch = normalizeName(search);
     return inputRows.filter(({ participant, input }) => {
       if (normalizedSearch && !normalizeName(participant.name).includes(normalizedSearch)) return false;
-      if (onlyMissing && !isRowIncomplete(input)) return false;
+      if (onlyMissing && !isRowIncomplete(participant.id, input)) return false;
       return true;
     });
     // eslint-disable-next-line react-hooks/exhaustive-deps
-  }, [inputRows, search, onlyMissing, requiredInputs]);
+  }, [inputRows, search, onlyMissing, requiredInputs, resolvedEloRows, resolvedRatingRows]);
 
   const totalPages = Math.max(1, Math.ceil(filteredRows.length / PARTICIPANT_PAGE_SIZE));
   const safePage = Math.min(page, totalPages - 1);
@@ -582,6 +663,26 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
                       this Elo — they are not blended again per game.
                     </p>
                   </div>
+                  {projectionEloOption && (
+                    <div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-5">
+                      <Label htmlFor="baseEloPriority">Base Elo Source</Label>
+                      <select
+                        id="baseEloPriority"
+                        name="baseEloPriority"
+                        className="h-9 w-full rounded-md border bg-background px-3 text-sm"
+                        defaultValue={projectionsOutrankElo ? "projectionsFirst" : "eloFirst"}
+                      >
+                        <option value="eloFirst">Entered Elo first, then {projectionEloOption.label}</option>
+                        <option value="projectionsFirst">{projectionEloOption.label} first, then entered Elo</option>
+                      </select>
+                      <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">
+                        Raw Elo and projections are substitutes — the first one a participant has wins, and
+                        the other is ignored (futures odds are separate and blend on top via the weight above).
+                        Pick <strong>{projectionEloOption.label} first</strong> when projections are
+                        the source of truth for this season and a previously entered Elo should not override them.
+                      </p>
+                    </div>
+                  )}
                   {config.profile.requiredInputs.includes("sourceElo") && (
                     <>
                       <div className="space-y-2 md:col-span-2">
@@ -771,7 +872,7 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
               </div>
             ) : (
               pageRows.map(({ participant, input }) => {
-                const incomplete = isRowIncomplete(input);
+                const incomplete = isRowIncomplete(participant.id, input);
                 return (
                   <div
                     key={participant.id}
@@ -784,6 +885,34 @@ export default function AdminSportsSeasonSimulator({ loaderData }: Route.Compone
                     </div>
                     {inputColumns.length > 0 ? (
                       inputColumns.map((column) => {
+                        if (column.key === "sourceElo") {
+                          const resolved = resolvedEloRows[participant.id];
+                          const methodLabel = resolved ? resolvedInputMethodLabel(resolved.method) : null;
+                          return (
+                            <div key={column.key} className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
+                              {resolved ? resolved.sourceElo : "—"}
+                              {methodLabel && (
+                                <Badge variant="outline" className="text-[10px] font-normal">
+                                  {methodLabel}
+                                </Badge>
+                              )}
+                            </div>
+                          );
+                        }
+                        if (column.key === "rating") {
+                          const resolved = resolvedRatingRows[participant.id];
+                          const methodLabel = resolved ? resolvedInputMethodLabel(resolved.method) : null;
+                          return (
+                            <div key={column.key} className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
+                              {resolved ? resolved.rating : "—"}
+                              {methodLabel && (
+                                <Badge variant="outline" className="text-[10px] font-normal">
+                                  {methodLabel}
+                                </Badge>
+                              )}
+                            </div>
+                          );
+                        }
                         const value = input?.[column.key];
                         return <div key={column.key}>{typeof value === "number" || typeof value === "string" ? value : "—"}</div>;
                       })

app/services/simulations/__tests__/input-policy.test.ts

@@ -26,6 +26,33 @@ describe("simulator input policy", () => {
     expect(resolved.get("team-1")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1600, method: "direct" });
   });
 
+  it("puts projections ahead of a stored Elo when baseEloPriority says so", () => {
+    // The season-level escape hatch for "projections are the source of truth here":
+    // without it a stale hand-entered Elo silently beats a fresh projection.
+    const resolved = resolveSourceElos(
+      [{ participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: 1600, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: 60, projectedTablePoints: null }],
+      profile,
+      { seasonGames: 82, parityFactor: 400, inputPolicy: { baseEloPriority: ["projectedWins", "sourceElo"] } }
+    );
+
+    expect(resolved.get("team-1")?.method).toBe("projectedWins");
+    expect(resolved.get("team-1")?.sourceElo).not.toBe(1600);
+  });
+
+  it("still falls back to the stored Elo for participants without a projection", () => {
+    const resolved = resolveSourceElos(
+      [
+        { participantId: "projected", sourceElo: 1600, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: 60, projectedTablePoints: null },
+        { participantId: "elo-only", sourceElo: 1600, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null },
+      ],
+      profile,
+      { seasonGames: 82, parityFactor: 400, inputPolicy: { baseEloPriority: ["projectedWins", "sourceElo"] } }
+    );
+
+    expect(resolved.get("projected")?.method).toBe("projectedWins");
+    expect(resolved.get("elo-only")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1600, method: "direct" });
+  });
+
   it("derives Elo from projected wins when Elo is missing", () => {
     const resolved = resolveSourceElos(
       [{ participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: 60, projectedTablePoints: null }],

app/services/simulations/__tests__/mlb-simulator.test.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,8 @@ import {
   rawWinRateFromElo,
   rdifWinProbability,
   eloToRDif,
+  projectionForSeeding,
+  seedingWinRateFor,
   sampleBinomial,
   simBo3,
   simBo5,
@@ -281,8 +283,8 @@ describe("sampleBinomial", () => {
 
 // ─── Series simulators ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-const teamA = { id: "a", name: "Team A", data: undefined, currentWins: 0, remainingGames: 0 };
+const teamA = { id: "a", name: "Team A", data: undefined, currentWins: 0, remainingGames: 0, projectedWins: null };
-const teamB = { id: "b", name: "Team B", data: undefined, currentWins: 0, remainingGames: 0 };
+const teamB = { id: "b", name: "Team B", data: undefined, currentWins: 0, remainingGames: 0, projectedWins: null };
 const alwaysA  = () => 1.0; // team A always wins each game
 const alwaysB  = () => 0.0; // team B always wins each game
 const coinFlip = () => 0.5;
@@ -346,9 +348,159 @@ describe("eloToRDif", () => {
     expect(eloToRDif(1600)).toBeCloseTo(-eloToRDif(1400), 5);
   });
 
-  it("round-trips through winRateFromRDif: winRate(eloToRDif(elo)) ≈ eloWinProb(elo, 1500)", () => {
+  it("lands on the same run-differential scale as the hardcoded TEAMS_DATA rdif", () => {
-    const elo = 1620;
+    // 95 projected wins out of 162 → Elo ≈ 1561. On the TEAMS_DATA scale that is a
-    const expectedWinRate = 1 / (1 + Math.pow(10, (1500 - elo) / 400));
+    // ~+140 run differential, right alongside the Dodgers' hardcoded +137 — not the
-    expect(winRateFromRDif(eloToRDif(elo))).toBeCloseTo(expectedWinRate, 4);
+    // ~+686 the old RDIF_DIVISOR scaling produced.
+    const winRate = 95 / 162;
+    const elo = 1500 - 400 * Math.log10((1 - winRate) / winRate);
+    expect(eloToRDif(elo)).toBeGreaterThan(120);
+    expect(eloToRDif(elo)).toBeLessThan(160);
+  });
+
+  it("is compressed by winRateFromRDif for playoff matchups, like a hardcoded rdif", () => {
+    // The whole point of RDIF_DIVISOR: playoff series are near coin-flips between
+    // playoff-calibre teams. An Elo-rated team must not skip that compression.
+    const winRate = 95 / 162;
+    const elo = 1500 - 400 * Math.log10((1 - winRate) / winRate);
+    const playoffRate = winRateFromRDif(eloToRDif(elo));
+    expect(playoffRate).toBeCloseTo(0.517, 2);
+    // Strictly compressed relative to the team's raw season win rate.
+    expect(playoffRate).toBeLessThan(rawWinRateFromElo(elo));
+  });
+
+  it("agrees with the hardcoded rdif path for a team of equivalent strength", () => {
+    // Dodgers: hardcoded +137. An Elo carrying the same seeding win rate should
+    // produce a comparable playoff win rate rather than a wildly more dominant one.
+    const dodgers = getTeamData("Los Angeles Dodgers");
+    const eloEquivalent = 1500 + 400 * Math.log10(
+      rawWinRateFromRDif(dodgers?.rdif ?? 0) / (1 - rawWinRateFromRDif(dodgers?.rdif ?? 0))
+    );
+    expect(winRateFromRDif(eloToRDif(eloEquivalent))).toBeCloseTo(
+      winRateFromRDif(dodgers?.rdif ?? 0),
+      3
+    );
+  });
+});
+
+// ─── seedingWinRateFor ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+describe("seedingWinRateFor", () => {
+  const eloRate = 95 / 162; // ≈ 0.5864 — the rate a 95-win projection implies
+
+  it("is a no-op pre-season: the target equals the Elo-implied rate", () => {
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 0, 162)).toBeCloseTo(eloRate, 6);
+  });
+
+  it("spreads the shortfall over the remaining games mid-season", () => {
+    // 60-50 and projected for 95: 35 wins needed in 52 games ≈ .673, well above the
+    // .586 the season-long Elo implies. Without this the sim finishes around 90.5.
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 60, 52)).toBeCloseTo(35 / 52, 6);
+  });
+
+  it("reaches the projection in expectation", () => {
+    const currentWins = 60;
+    const remaining = 52;
+    const rate = seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, currentWins, remaining);
+    expect(currentWins + rate * remaining).toBeCloseTo(95, 6);
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to the Elo rate once a team has passed its projection", () => {
+    // Clamping to a floor instead would simulate a 96-40 team to go 0-26 for the
+    // rest of the season and drop out of the field. The projection is stale, so it
+    // is dropped rather than obeyed.
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 96, 26)).toBe(eloRate);
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to the Elo rate when a team has exactly met its projection", () => {
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 95, 26)).toBe(eloRate);
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to the Elo rate when the projection is unreachable", () => {
+    // 40-70 projected for 95 needs better than 1.000 — the mirror image of the
+    // case above, and dropped for the same reason.
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 40, 52)).toBe(eloRate);
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to the Elo rate when the target is exactly 1.000", () => {
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 43, 52)).toBe(eloRate);
+  });
+
+  it("keeps a target just inside the reachable range", () => {
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 94, 26)).toBeCloseTo(1 / 26, 6);
+  });
+
+  it("clamps a weight above 1 rather than extrapolating past the target", () => {
+    const target = 35 / 52;
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 60, 52, 3)).toBeCloseTo(target, 6);
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 60, 52, 3)).toBe(
+      seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 60, 52, 1)
+    );
+  });
+
+  it("never returns a rate outside (0, 1) for any weight", () => {
+    for (const weight of [0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 5]) {
+      for (const [current, remaining] of [[0, 162], [60, 52], [94, 26], [10, 152]]) {
+        const rate = seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, current, remaining, weight);
+        expect(rate).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+        expect(rate).toBeLessThan(1);
+      }
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to the Elo rate with no projection", () => {
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, null, 60, 52)).toBe(eloRate);
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to the Elo rate when the season is over", () => {
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 95, 0)).toBe(eloRate);
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to the Elo rate at weight 0", () => {
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 60, 52, 0)).toBe(eloRate);
+  });
+
+  it("blends target and Elo rate at an intermediate weight", () => {
+    const target = 35 / 52;
+    expect(seedingWinRateFor(eloRate, 95, 60, 52, 0.5)).toBeCloseTo(
+      0.5 * target + 0.5 * eloRate,
+      6
+    );
+  });
+});
+
+// ─── projectionForSeeding ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+describe("projectionForSeeding", () => {
+  it("uses the projection when it alone produced the resolved Elo", () => {
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(95, { sourceEloMethod: "projectedWins" })).toBe(95);
+  });
+
+  it("ignores a projection that lost the baseEloPriority race", () => {
+    // The season resolved its Elo from a hand-entered value. Seeding off the
+    // projection anyway would ignore it as the Elo source while still letting it
+    // dictate the standings.
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(95, { sourceEloMethod: "direct" })).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it("ignores a projection that was blended with futures odds", () => {
+    // The blend lives in the Elo; seeding off the raw projection would discard it
+    // and run seeding and playoff matchups on different strength scales.
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(95, { sourceEloMethod: "blend" })).toBeNull();
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(95, { sourceEloMethod: "sourceOdds" })).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it("ignores a projection on a participant resolved by a fallback", () => {
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(95, { sourceEloMethod: "averageKnown" })).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it("ignores a projection with no method recorded", () => {
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(95, null)).toBeNull();
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(95, undefined)).toBeNull();
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(95, {})).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it("passes a null projection through", () => {
+    expect(projectionForSeeding(null, { sourceEloMethod: "projectedWins" })).toBeNull();
   });
 });

app/services/simulations/manifest.ts

@@ -171,7 +171,7 @@ const PROFILES: Record<SimulatorType, Omit<SimulatorManifestProfile, "simulatorT
     setupSections: ["participants", "surfaceElo", "events"],
   },
   mlb_bracket: {
-    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, seasonGames: 162, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.3 } },
+    defaultConfig: { ...BASE_CONFIG, seasonGames: 162, projectedWinsWeight: 1, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.3 } },
     requiredInputs: ["sourceElo"],
     optionalInputs: ["sourceOdds", "projectedWins"],
     derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] },

app/services/simulations/mlb-simulator.ts

@@ -8,8 +8,9 @@
  *   1. Load all participants for the sports season from DB
  *   2. Load current standings (wins, gamesPlayed) from regularSeasonStandings
  *   3. Load sourceElo ratings from seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- *   4. Match participant names to hardcoded team data (RDif + league/division)
+ *   4. Load raw projected win totals from seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs
- *   5. For each simulation:
+ *   5. Match participant names to hardcoded team data (RDif + league/division)
+ *   6. For each simulation:
  *      a. For each league (AL/NL), simulate remaining regular season games for
  *         every team using Binomial sampling, giving final projected wins.
  *      b. Division winner = best record in each division (3 per league).
@@ -21,8 +22,8 @@
  *         - Division Series (best-of-5): 1 vs lowest WC survivor, 2 vs other
  *         - League Championship Series (best-of-7)
  *      e. World Series (best-of-7): AL champ vs NL champ
- *   6. Track placement counts per scoring tier
+ *   7. Track placement counts per scoring tier
- *   7. Convert counts to probability distributions
+ *   8. Convert counts to probability distributions
  *
  * Win probability (log5 formula):
  *   Step 1 — convert projected RDif to win rate for playoff matchups:
@@ -32,17 +33,24 @@
  *     P(A beats B) = (wA - wA·wB) / (wA + wB - 2·wA·wB)
  *
  * Regular season simulation (seeding):
- *   Each team's raw per-game win rate is derived from sourceElo (if set) or
+ *   Each team's base per-game win rate is derived from sourceElo (if set) or
  *   from the hardcoded RDif using SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE ≈ 10 runs/win × 162 games.
+ *   When the resolved Elo came from a projected win total and nothing else, that
+ *   base rate is replaced by the rest-of-season rate that reaches the projection:
+ *     target = (projectedWins − currentWins) / remainingGames
+ *   (see seedingWinRateFor; config `projectedWinsWeight` blends it back toward the
+ *   base rate).  Pre-season the two rates coincide, so this is a no-op then.  A
+ *   projection that lost the baseEloPriority race, or that was blended with futures
+ *   odds, is left to the resolved Elo — see projectionForSeeding.
  *   Remaining games = TOTAL_SEASON_GAMES − gamesPlayed are drawn from a
  *   Binomial distribution.  This makes playoff seeding respond to both current
  *   standings and user-entered projected wins.
  *
- * Futures blending:
+ * Input resolution:
- *   If sourceOdds are stored in participantExpectedValues for this season,
+ *   sourceElo is the single Elo produced by the shared input policy — already a
- *   the per-game win probability for playoff series is blended:
+ *   blend of any raw Elo / projections / futures odds, written by
- *     P(game) = RDIF_WEIGHT * rdifProb + ODDS_WEIGHT * oddsProb
+ *   prepareSimulatorInputsForRun before the run. This simulator does not blend
- *   RDIF_WEIGHT = 0.7, ODDS_WEIGHT = 0.3.
+ *   futures odds itself.
  *
  * Placement tiers → SimulationProbabilities mapping:
  *   probFirst              = World Series champion (1 per sim)
@@ -74,9 +82,10 @@ import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
 import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
-import { positiveConfigNumber } from "./config-access";
+import { configNumber, positiveConfigNumber } from "./config-access";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
 import { getRegularSeasonStandings } from "~/models/regular-season-standings";
+import { getParticipantSimulatorInputs } from "~/models/simulator";
 
 // ─── Simulation parameters ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
@@ -100,6 +109,13 @@ const RDIF_DIVISOR = 8000;
  */
 const SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE = 1620;
 
+/**
+ * Default weight given to a user-entered projected win total when deriving the
+ * rest-of-season win rate. 1 = the projection is authoritative; 0 = ignore it and
+ * use the Elo-implied rate. Overridable per season via config `projectedWinsWeight`.
+ */
+const DEFAULT_PROJECTED_WINS_WEIGHT = 1;
+
 // ─── Team data (2026 pre-season — FanGraphs Depth Charts) ────────────────────
 //
 // rdif: Projected run differential from FanGraphs Depth Charts.
@@ -206,13 +222,93 @@ export function rawWinRateFromElo(elo: number): number {
 }
 
 /**
- * Convert an Elo rating to an equivalent projected run differential.
+ * Convert an Elo rating to an equivalent projected run differential, on the same
- * Uses the standard Elo win probability formula (parity factor 400, average Elo 1500),
+ * scale as the hardcoded TEAMS_DATA.rdif values.
- * then inverts the winRateFromRDif formula: rdif = (winRate − 0.5) × RDIF_DIVISOR.
+ *
+ * Uses the standard Elo win probability formula (parity factor 400, average Elo
+ * 1500) and inverts rawWinRateFromRDif: rdif = (winRate − 0.5) × SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE.
+ *
+ * SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE — not RDIF_DIVISOR — is deliberate. Scaling by RDIF_DIVISOR
+ * would make this the exact algebraic inverse of winRateFromRDif, so a team with
+ * an Elo would skip the playoff-parity compression that every hardcoded-rdif team
+ * gets: a 95-win projection (Elo ≈ 1561) mapped to RDif +686 and played playoff
+ * games at .586 instead of the ~.517 documented on RDIF_DIVISOR. On this scale it
+ * maps to ≈ +140 — right alongside the Dodgers' hardcoded +137 — and
+ * winRateFromRDif then compresses it to ≈ .5175 like any other team.
+ *
  * Exported for unit testing.
  */
 export function eloToRDif(elo: number): number {
-  return (rawWinRateFromElo(elo) - 0.5) * RDIF_DIVISOR;
+  return (rawWinRateFromElo(elo) - 0.5) * SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE;
+}
+
+/**
+ * The projected win total seeding should use, or null to leave seeding on the Elo.
+ *
+ * `prepareSimulatorInputsForRun` records which source won the base-Elo race in
+ * `metadata.sourceEloMethod`, and only `"projectedWins"` means the resolved Elo is
+ * the projection and nothing else. Every other method has to be left alone:
+ *
+ *   - `"direct"` — the season's `baseEloPriority` put a hand-entered Elo ahead of
+ *     the projection. Honouring the projection here anyway would ignore it as the
+ *     Elo source while still letting it dictate seeding.
+ *   - `"blend"` / `"sourceOdds"` — futures odds are folded into the Elo at
+ *     `oddsWeight` (0.3 for MLB). Seeding off the raw projection would discard that
+ *     blend and run seeding and playoff matchups on two different strength scales.
+ *   - a fallback — the participant had no usable input of its own.
+ *
+ * Exported for unit testing.
+ */
+export function projectionForSeeding(
+  projectedWins: number | null,
+  metadata: Record<string, unknown> | null | undefined
+): number | null {
+  return metadata?.sourceEloMethod === "projectedWins" ? projectedWins : null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Per-game win rate to use for a team's remaining regular-season games.
+ *
+ * A user-entered `projectedWins` is a projected *final* season win total, so the
+ * rate that reproduces it is spread over the games still to play:
+ *
+ *   target = (projectedWins − currentWins) / remainingGames
+ *
+ * Pre-season this is a no-op — with currentWins 0 and remainingGames 162 the
+ * target equals projectedWins / 162, which is exactly the rate the Elo derived
+ * from that projection already encodes. Mid-season it is what makes the
+ * simulation actually land on the projection: a team at 60-50 projected for 95
+ * needs .673 over its last 52 games, not the .586 its season-long Elo implies.
+ *
+ * A target outside (0, 1) is proof the projection has gone stale rather than a
+ * reason to bet everything on it: a 96-40 team projected for 95 would need a
+ * negative rate, and a 40-70 team projected for 95 would need better than 1.000.
+ * Both fall back to the Elo rate — clamping them instead would simulate a team to
+ * stop winning entirely, or to win out. NLL takes the same escape hatch
+ * (`nll-simulator.ts` clamps its prior at 0 and then uses the Elo rate outright).
+ *
+ * `weight` (config `projectedWinsWeight`, default 1) blends the target back toward
+ * the Elo-implied rate. At 1 the projection is authoritative wherever it is still
+ * reachable; lower values hedge it; 0 or less ignores it. Values above 1 are
+ * clamped — this is a blend weight, like inputPolicy.oddsWeight, and above 1 it
+ * would extrapolate past the target rather than blending toward it.
+ *
+ * Exported for unit testing.
+ */
+export function seedingWinRateFor(
+  eloRate: number,
+  projectedWins: number | null,
+  currentWins: number,
+  remainingGames: number,
+  weight: number = DEFAULT_PROJECTED_WINS_WEIGHT
+): number {
+  if (projectedWins === null || remainingGames <= 0 || weight <= 0) return eloRate;
+  const target = (projectedWins - currentWins) / remainingGames;
+  if (target <= 0 || target >= 1) return eloRate;
+  // Clamped here rather than at the call site so the blend cannot be turned into an
+  // extrapolation by a stray config value, whichever caller supplies it.
+  const blend = Math.min(1, weight);
+  return blend * target + (1 - blend) * eloRate;
 }
 
 /**
@@ -270,6 +366,8 @@ interface TeamEntry {
   originalSeed?: number;
   currentWins: number;    // from regularSeasonStandings (0 pre-season)
   remainingGames: number; // TOTAL_SEASON_GAMES - gamesPlayed
+  /** User-entered projected *final* season win total, or null when not set. */
+  projectedWins: number | null;
 }
 
 /** Get projected RDif for a team entry. Fallback 0 (league-average) for unknown teams. */
@@ -443,6 +541,10 @@ function simLeagueBracket(
 export class MLBSimulator implements Simulator {
   async simulate(sportsSeasonId: string, config: Record<string, unknown> = {}): Promise<SimulationResult[]> {
     const numSimulations = Math.round(positiveConfigNumber(config, "iterations", DEFAULT_NUM_SIMULATIONS));
+    // configNumber (not positiveConfigNumber) so an explicit 0 — ignore projections,
+    // use the Elo-implied rate — is honored rather than falling back to the default.
+    // seedingWinRateFor clamps the upper end; the knob is free-form on the Engine card.
+    const projectedWinsWeight = configNumber(config, "projectedWinsWeight", DEFAULT_PROJECTED_WINS_WEIGHT);
     const db = database();
 
     // 1. Load all participants for this sports season.
@@ -465,6 +567,18 @@ export class MLBSimulator implements Simulator {
     const standings = await getRegularSeasonStandings(sportsSeasonId);
     const standingsByParticipantId = new Map(standings.map((s) => [s.participantId, s]));
 
+    // 3. Load the raw projected win totals, keeping only those that actually
+    //    produced the resolved Elo. The Elo encodes the projection as a season-long
+    //    rate; the raw total is what lets seeding spread the *remaining* wins
+    //    correctly once games have been played — see projectionForSeeding.
+    const simInputs = await getParticipantSimulatorInputs(sportsSeasonId);
+    const projectedWinsMap = new Map(
+      simInputs.map((input) => [
+        input.participantId,
+        projectionForSeeding(input.projectedWins, input.metadata),
+      ])
+    );
+
     const teams: TeamEntry[] = participantRows.map((r) => {
       const standing = standingsByParticipantId.get(r.id);
       const gamesPlayed = standing?.gamesPlayed ?? 0;
@@ -474,6 +588,7 @@ export class MLBSimulator implements Simulator {
         data: getTeamData(r.name),
         currentWins: standing?.wins ?? 0,
         remainingGames: Math.max(0, TOTAL_SEASON_GAMES - gamesPlayed),
+        projectedWins: projectedWinsMap.get(r.id) ?? null,
       };
     });
 
@@ -546,11 +661,28 @@ export class MLBSimulator implements Simulator {
 
     /**
      * Raw per-game win rate for regular-season seeding simulation.
-     * Uses sourceElo-derived rate if available; falls back to hardcoded rdif
+     *
-     * with SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE (Pythagorean approximation).
+     * The base rate comes from sourceElo when available, else from the hardcoded
+     * rdif via SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE (Pythagorean approximation). A user-entered
+     * projected win total then re-expresses that as a rest-of-season target so the
+     * projection is actually reached mid-season — see seedingWinRateFor.
+     *
+     * The result depends only on fixed per-team inputs, so it is resolved once here
+     * rather than on every one of the ~1.5M calls the seeding loop makes.
      */
-    const seedingWinRate = (entry: TeamEntry): number =>
+    const seedingWinRateMap = new Map(
-      rawWinRateMap.get(entry.id) ?? rawWinRateFromRDif(getEntryRDif(entry));
+      teams.map((team) => [
+        team.id,
+        seedingWinRateFor(
+          rawWinRateMap.get(team.id) ?? rawWinRateFromRDif(getEntryRDif(team)),
+          team.projectedWins,
+          team.currentWins,
+          team.remainingGames,
+          projectedWinsWeight
+        ),
+      ])
+    );
+    const seedingWinRate = (entry: TeamEntry): number => seedingWinRateMap.get(entry.id) ?? 0.5;
 
     /**
      * Per-game win probability for team A over team B in a playoff series, from

docs/agents/simulators.md

@@ -91,13 +91,62 @@ Keep specialized pages when they provide real workflow value, such as Golf Skill
 
 ## Input Policies
 
-Direct ratings are always preferred. If a simulator declares derived inputs, readiness may also pass with those alternatives:
+Direct ratings are preferred by default. If a simulator declares derived inputs, readiness may also pass with those alternatives:
 
 - `projectedWins` can become Elo using `seasonGames` and `parityFactor` from season config.
 - `projectedTablePoints` can become Elo using `seasonGames`, `maxTablePoints`, and `parityFactor`.
 - `sourceOdds` can become Elo through the shared futures-to-Elo conversion.
 - `sourceOdds` can become a generic `rating` when the simulator declares `derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] }`.
 
+### Raw Elo vs. projections
+
+Raw Elo and projections are *substitutes*, not a blend: `inputPolicy.baseEloPriority`
+lists them in order and the first source a participant has wins outright. The
+default is `["sourceElo", "projectedWins", "projectedTablePoints"]`, so a stored Elo
+beats a projection. Set the Base Elo Source control on the simulator page (or
+`baseEloPriority` directly) to `["projectedWins", "sourceElo"]` when projections are
+the season's source of truth. Futures odds are separate — they blend on top of
+whichever base won, weighted by `inputPolicy.oddsWeight`.
+
+Whenever you write a projection without an explicit Elo, stamp
+`metadata.sourceEloMethod` (`"projectedWins"` / `"projectedTablePoints"`) on the
+row. `getParticipantSimulatorInputs` reads that flag and returns `sourceElo: null`
+so the Elo is re-derived from the projection on every run. Skip it and the
+non-destructive upsert leaves the previous Elo in place as a *direct* value, which
+then wins the priority race — the projection is stored and silently ignored. Both
+the Elo Ratings page's projections mode and the simulator page's CSV importer do
+this; any new importer must too.
+
+Projections are stored and displayed exactly as entered. Never round-trip one
+through its derived Elo for display: the conversion rounds to an integer Elo, and a
+run re-resolves that Elo through the input policy (clamping, plus any futures
+blend), so the number the admin sees drifts away from the number they typed.
+
+### Mid-season projections
+
+A projected win total is a projected *final* total. A simulator that seeds from
+projections mid-season must spread the difference over the games still to play —
+`(projectedWins - currentWins) / remainingGames` — rather than reusing the
+season-long rate the derived Elo encodes, or it will never reach the projection.
+See `seedingWinRateFor` in `mlb-simulator.ts` (config knob `projectedWinsWeight`,
+1 = the projection is authoritative) and `simulateRegularSeasonSeeds` in
+`nll-simulator.ts` (which additionally decays a preseason prior as the season
+completes).
+
+Two guards belong on any such rest-of-season rate:
+
+- **A target outside `(0, 1)` means the projection is stale** — the team has
+  already met it, or can no longer reach it. Fall back to the Elo rate. Clamping to
+  a floor or ceiling instead simulates a team to stop winning entirely, or to win
+  out, and collapses its seeding variance.
+- **Only apply a projection that actually produced the resolved Elo.** Check
+  `metadata.sourceEloMethod === "projectedWins"` (see `projectionForSeeding` in
+  `mlb-simulator.ts`). Any other method means the Elo represents something else: a
+  hand-entered Elo that won the `baseEloPriority` race, or a futures blend. Seeding
+  off the raw projection in those cases makes the projection simultaneously ignored
+  as the Elo source and authoritative for the standings, and runs seeding and
+  playoff matchups on two different strength scales.
+
 Missing tail participants must remain blocked unless the season config explicitly chooses an `inputPolicy.missingEloStrategy`:
 
 ```json