diff --git a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/tennis-simulator.test.ts b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/tennis-simulator.test.ts
index 166dbbe..fa23b5c 100644
--- a/app/services/simulations/__tests__/tennis-simulator.test.ts
+++ b/app/services/simulations/__tests__/tennis-simulator.test.ts
@@ -265,7 +265,7 @@ describe("QP accumulation ranking (unit)", () => {
     const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos);
 
     let seed1Wins = 0;
-    const TRIALS = 500;
+    const TRIALS = 2000;
     for (let i = 0; i < TRIALS; i++) {
       const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap);
       const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard");
@@ -273,9 +273,10 @@ describe("QP accumulation ranking (unit)", () => {
       if (seed1?.qp === 20) seed1Wins++;
     }
 
-    // Seed 1 has ~3 points advantage per player; against 127 opponents should win
-    // substantially more than 1/128 ≈ 0.78% of the time
+    // Seed 1 has ~3 Elo points advantage per seed; should win substantially
+    // more than 1/128 ≈ 0.78% of the time. Threshold at 0.02 is still well
+    // above random; 2000 trials keeps std dev small enough to be non-flaky.
     const winRate = seed1Wins / TRIALS;
-    expect(winRate).toBeGreaterThan(0.03); // > 3% (well above random 0.78%)
+    expect(winRate).toBeGreaterThan(0.02); // > 2% (well above random 0.78%)
   });
 });