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Author SHA1 Message Date
Chris Parsons
4d5fea05ab
Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket) (#278)
Fixes #124

* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)

Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).

- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
  in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
  Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
  probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator

Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test

Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 09:48:32 -04:00