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2 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Chris Parsons
9e5d1cda5f
Fix NHL simulator seeding bugs and code quality issues (#281)
* Fix NHL simulator dynamic seeding and code quality issues

- Replace hardcoded seeding probabilities with standings-based Monte Carlo
  projection: simulates remaining regular season games per team using Elo
  win probability vs. a league-average opponent, so mathematically eliminated
  teams naturally fall out of playoff contention
- Fix double-simulation bug in wildcard pool: all 16 conference teams are now
  projected exactly once via sortProjected([...divA, ...divB].map(projectTeam)),
  then filtered — wildcard pool no longer re-runs simulateProjectedPoints with
  fresh randomness independent of the division seeding
- Move ProjectedTeam interface, projectTeam(), and sortProjected() to module
  scope (defined once, not recreated on every buildConferenceBracket call)
- Replace conference-level participant count check (east < 8 || west < 8) with
  per-division checks (each division < 3) for a more actionable error message
- Add logger.warn when standings.length === 0 so admins know the sim is running
  without synced data
- Remove unused easternTeams/westernTeams variables
- Simplify test: replace Object.fromEntries pattern with a plain for..of loop

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

* Fix oxlint errors in NHL simulator and tests

- Replace non-null assertions (data!) with optional chaining (data?.x ?? "")
- Move makeEntry helper to module scope to avoid recreating on every call

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 21:33:33 -04:00
Chris Parsons
46a2e9c199
Tune NHL simulator: Vegas futures blending + parity factor calibration (closes #168) (#202)
- Add 70/30 Elo + Vegas futures blending for per-game win probability,
  mirroring the UCL simulator pattern; falls back to Elo-only when no
  sourceOdds are stored in participantExpectedValues
- Adjust PARITY_FACTOR to better match Vegas championship implied
  probabilities (COL was ~12% vs ~20% market expectation)
- Add 15 unit tests covering name normalization, team data lookup,
  parity-factor math, seeding probability sanity, and eliminated-team checks

Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-22 00:14:18 -07:00