Adds syncVorpForSeason to recalculate and persist VORP for all participants
in a season after any EV change. Wires it into upsertParticipantEV,
batchUpsertParticipantEVs, and recalculateAllEVsForSeason so VORP stays
current whenever EVs are updated.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Add oxlint and fix all lint errors
- Install oxlint, add .oxlintrc.json with rules for TypeScript/React
- Add npm run lint / lint:fix scripts
- Add Claude PostToolUse hook to run oxlint on every edited file
- Fix 101 errors: unused vars/imports, eqeqeq, prefer-const, no-new-array
- Fix no-array-index-key (use stable keys or suppress positional cases)
- Fix exhaustive-deps missing dependency in useEffect
- Promote exhaustive-deps and no-array-index-key to errors
- Fix Map.get() !== null bug in $leagueId.server.ts (should be !== undefined)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix no-explicit-any warnings and upgrade tsconfig to ES2023
- Replace all `any` types with proper types or `unknown` across ~20 files
- Add typed socket payload interfaces in draft route and useDraftSocket
- Use any[] with eslint-disable for socket.io callbacks (legitimate escape hatch)
- Bump all tsconfigs from ES2022 → ES2023 to support toSorted/toReversed
- Fix cascading type errors uncovered by removing any: Map.get narrowing,
participant relation types, ChartDataPoint, Partial<NewSeason> indexing
- Add ParticipantResultWithParticipant type to participant-result model
- Fix test fixtures to match updated interfaces (DraftCell, ParticipantResult)
- Fix duplicate getQPStandings import in sportsSeasonId.server.ts
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Promote no-explicit-any to error
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.
## Key Features
### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)
### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)
### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field
### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization
### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities
## Technical Details
- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing
## Future Enhancements
- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
