5 commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
chrisp	3e50619629	claude/probability-config-review-1tdolw (#119) ... Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> Reviewed-on: #119	2026-06-30 23:24:48 +00:00
Chris Parsons	9480501932	Unify majors: score once, fan out across windows + tennis bracket EV ... Make a "major" (golf/tennis/CS2) scored once on its canonical tournament and fan out to every linked sports_season window and league. Fan-out & completion (app/services/sync-tournament-results.ts): - syncTournamentResults now marks each synced window's event complete (gated by markComplete), recalculates affected leagues, and counts recalc failures so a stale league can't hide behind a "completed" badge - syncMajorFromPrimaryEvent promotes a primary window's derived results to canonical tournament_results (deleting rows for dropped placements) and fans out to siblings; fanOutMajorIfPrimary guards on the primary - placement removals now propagate (stale rows reset to filler) Primary-event model (scoring_events.is_primary, migration 0122): - getPrimaryEventForTournament / isReadOnlySibling / ensurePrimaryEvent / setPrimaryEvent; event creation auto-seeds a primary for bracket majors; "Make primary" button on the tournament page - per-window event/bracket/cs2 pages are read-only for non-primary linked events (not-participating stays editable) Tennis Grand Slam bracket (tennis_128 template + TEMPLATE_ROUND_CONFIG): - bracket-scored qualifying major via the existing bracket pipeline - simulator conditions in-progress EV on the real bracket (honoring completed matches, walkover for withdrawals), QP derived from config, round structure read from the template; CS2 + tennis share resolveStructureSource Backfill (scripts/backfill-major-linking.ts): one-time idempotent reconcile of existing majors (link orphans, designate primary, promote canonical, sync). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-06-22 20:32:22 -07:00
Chris Parsons	43dbdf0040	Add not-participating exclusion support for event results (#446) ... * Add notParticipating flag to allow excluding withdrawn participants from qualifying-points simulators Adds a `not_participating` boolean column to `event_results` so admins can mark a participant as not competing in a specific upcoming major (e.g. Alcaraz withdrawing from Wimbledon due to injury). The golf, tennis, and CS2 major simulators now query this flag for incomplete events and exclude those participants from the event's draw/field, redistributing probability weight to the remaining field. Admin UI for qualifying major_tournament events gains a "Not Participating" card to mark/unmark withdrawals before the event runs. https://claude.ai/code/session_01HxNPLEXzr5Km3suWrJe2F9 * Address code review feedback on not-participating flag Security: unmark-not-participating now validates the result exists, belongs to this event, and is actually a DNP row before deleting. mark-not-participating now returns a user-friendly error on duplicate-key constraint violations. Code quality: extract shared getExcludedByEventMap() utility to event-result model, eliminating the duplicated 20-line exclusion-loading block that was copy-pasted into all three simulators. Fix hasParticipantResult() to exclude notParticipating rows so it correctly reflects actual competition participation. Remove optional chaining on the non-optional notParticipatingIds field in the admin UI. Fix misleading empty-state message. Tests: replace the misleading first tennis DNP test (which never used the activeIds variable it created) with a test that explicitly validates the fallback behaviour when too few players remain after exclusion. Add three CS2 DNP tests covering the excluded-team-gets-zero-QP path, the redistribution of wins, and per-event pool independence. https://claude.ai/code/session_01HxNPLEXzr5Km3suWrJe2F9 * Fix lint errors: replace non-null assertions in CS2 DNP test https://claude.ai/code/session_01HxNPLEXzr5Km3suWrJe2F9 --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-19 11:13:32 -07:00
Chris Parsons	2848231235	Canonical tournament layer: schema + backfill (1/2) (#365) ... * refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals, participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names. Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id. Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1: - participants → seasonParticipants - participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues - participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals - participantResults → seasonParticipantResults - participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos - eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId - db.query relation accessors updated - Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable - Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files): - draft-pick.ts - draft-utils.ts - event-result.ts - group-stage-match.ts - participant-result.ts - qualifying-points.ts - scoring-calculator.ts - scoring-event.ts - sports-season.ts - surface-elo.ts - team-score-events.ts - cs2-major-stage.ts - golf-skills.ts - participant-expected-value.ts - __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts - __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts - __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer) All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports - Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant - Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants - Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults - Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants - Update 9 route files and 1 test file Affected files: - admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts - admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx - api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts - api/draft.make-pick.ts - api/draft.replace-pick.ts - api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts - leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx - leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts - admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use .seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables: - participants → seasonParticipants - participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues - participantResults → seasonParticipantResults - eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId Files updated: - 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.) - probability-updater.ts - standings-sync/index.ts - sports-data-sync.server.ts - server/socket.ts Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix * fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes "Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')" errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants but test mocks only defined the old participants key. Files updated: - app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts - app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts - server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts - app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename * fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename - draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals - process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification) * chore: capture pre-migration baselines * chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification * schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants. Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905. Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from ~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests). Key implementation notes: - participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant, createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing season-participant.ts exports - All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the audit-log.test.ts pattern - Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access) - Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs * scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group per-window events into canonical tournaments. * scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run mode. Critical invariants enforced by the implementation: - qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results - season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched - conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error (recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting * scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as `npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport. Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts). * fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern in scripts/capture-baseline.ts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com> Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-05-01 20:13:18 -07:00
Chris Parsons	d7ba20d9ea	Add tennis Grand Slam simulator with surface Elo ratings, fixes #116 (#216) ... Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding. New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season) storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass. Key design decisions: - Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure - Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.) - QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5 - Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults - 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization) Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo: - 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass) - Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line - Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions - Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher - Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-03-23 23:59:35 -07:00