Two problems addressed:
1. Favorites' P(1st) was too sharp (e.g. NHL top teams ~20% vs ~12% implied).
- The NHL simulator hardcoded its parity factor (1000) and ignored the
season config's parityFactor, so the knob meant to flatten the
distribution did nothing. It also re-blended raw futures odds into every
game on top of the odds->Elo conversion, double-counting the same signal.
- NHL now reads parityFactor/iterations/seasonGames/overtimeRate from config
and no longer re-blends odds per game (odds enter once, via the central
odds->Elo resolver). Honoring parity 2500 flattens a top team from ~29% to
~13% title odds.
2. "Season Config" and "Input Policy" were two forms over the same stored
object that didn't reflect each other, and the engine-knob half was inert
for many simulators.
- Every simulator now reads its engine knobs (iterations everywhere;
parityFactor for all Elo-based sims) from the merged config, passed in by
the runner via the Simulator interface. Defaults equal the former
hardcoded constants, so behavior is unchanged unless a season overrides.
- The admin simulator page is now a single "Simulator Configuration" card
with structured Engine and Input-derivation sections (profile-driven, so
each sport shows only the knobs it honors) plus an Advanced raw-JSON
escape hatch — all writing the same config.
Also: centralized the duplicated configNumber helpers into config-access.ts;
the central odds->Elo resolver now maps onto the configured Elo floor/ceiling
so those bounds set the odds-derived spread (a real flattening dial).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PAFMogMkFJf52YpHyCDvuf
* Fix NHL bracket-aware simulation and MLB sourceElo support
NHL: NHLSimulator now checks for a populated playoff_game bracket before
falling back to season-projection mode. When a bracket exists (e.g. via
simple_16 template), it simulates the actual bracket structure, respecting
completed matches and using ELO+odds blending for the rest — matching the
pattern used by Snooker, NBA, and UCL simulators.
MLB: MLBSimulator now reads sourceElo from participantExpectedValues and
converts it to an effective RDif (via eloToRDif), overriding the hardcoded
TEAMS_DATA.rdif when present. This wires up the expected-wins admin form
(which saves sourceElo) to the simulation engine.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn
* Wire sourceElo from projected wins form into NBA, NHL, and WNBA simulators
All three simulators had entries in simulator-config.ts (enabling the projected
wins form in the admin UI) but silently ignored the sourceElo that was saved.
NBA: Both bracket-aware and season-projection modes now load sourceElo and
prefer it over hardcoded TEAMS_DATA elo. Added resolvedElo field to TeamEntry
so eloOfEntry() uses the correct value throughout.
NHL: Season-projection mode now fetches sourceElo + sourceOdds in a single
parallel query (removing the duplicate evRows query). Bracket-aware mode also
loads sourceElo alongside sourceOdds. Both modes use sourceElo > TEAMS_DATA > 1400.
WNBA: resolveElo() now accepts sourceElo as an optional highest-priority
argument. The evRows query fetches sourceElo alongside sourceOdds and passes
it through when building team entries.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn
* Add review fixes: NHL R1 validation, WNBA sourceElo tests, NHL bracket unit tests
- NHLSimulator.simulateBracket: remove unused nameById variable
- NHLSimulator.simulateBracket: validate all R1 participants before entering
Monte Carlo loop; throws with a clear message if any slot is missing
- wnba-simulator.test.ts: add 5 tests covering the sourceElo override parameter
on resolveElo() (overrides SRS, overrides futures, overrides fallback,
null/undefined fall through to normal priority chain)
- nhl-simulator.test.ts: add full bracket-aware integration suite (10 tests)
covering fallback to season-projection, structure validation errors, probability
distributions, fully-decided champion, and source tag
https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn
* Fix TS error: add resolvedElo to makeEntry in nhl-simulator.test.ts
TeamEntry requires resolvedElo after the simulator refactor.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn
* Fix lint: replace non-null assertions with null-safe alternatives in NHL test
https://claude.ai/code/session_01139GJVg2gqgDjcUzqhnBNn
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix NHL simulator dynamic seeding and code quality issues
- Replace hardcoded seeding probabilities with standings-based Monte Carlo
projection: simulates remaining regular season games per team using Elo
win probability vs. a league-average opponent, so mathematically eliminated
teams naturally fall out of playoff contention
- Fix double-simulation bug in wildcard pool: all 16 conference teams are now
projected exactly once via sortProjected([...divA, ...divB].map(projectTeam)),
then filtered — wildcard pool no longer re-runs simulateProjectedPoints with
fresh randomness independent of the division seeding
- Move ProjectedTeam interface, projectTeam(), and sortProjected() to module
scope (defined once, not recreated on every buildConferenceBracket call)
- Replace conference-level participant count check (east < 8 || west < 8) with
per-division checks (each division < 3) for a more actionable error message
- Add logger.warn when standings.length === 0 so admins know the sim is running
without synced data
- Remove unused easternTeams/westernTeams variables
- Simplify test: replace Object.fromEntries pattern with a plain for..of loop
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix oxlint errors in NHL simulator and tests
- Replace non-null assertions (data!) with optional chaining (data?.x ?? "")
- Move makeEntry helper to module scope to avoid recreating on every call
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add 70/30 Elo + Vegas futures blending for per-game win probability,
mirroring the UCL simulator pattern; falls back to Elo-only when no
sourceOdds are stored in participantExpectedValues
- Adjust PARITY_FACTOR to better match Vegas championship implied
probabilities (COL was ~12% vs ~20% market expectation)
- Add 15 unit tests covering name normalization, team data lookup,
parity-factor math, seeding probability sanity, and eliminated-team checks
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
