Two problems addressed:
1. Favorites' P(1st) was too sharp (e.g. NHL top teams ~20% vs ~12% implied).
- The NHL simulator hardcoded its parity factor (1000) and ignored the
season config's parityFactor, so the knob meant to flatten the
distribution did nothing. It also re-blended raw futures odds into every
game on top of the odds->Elo conversion, double-counting the same signal.
- NHL now reads parityFactor/iterations/seasonGames/overtimeRate from config
and no longer re-blends odds per game (odds enter once, via the central
odds->Elo resolver). Honoring parity 2500 flattens a top team from ~29% to
~13% title odds.
2. "Season Config" and "Input Policy" were two forms over the same stored
object that didn't reflect each other, and the engine-knob half was inert
for many simulators.
- Every simulator now reads its engine knobs (iterations everywhere;
parityFactor for all Elo-based sims) from the merged config, passed in by
the runner via the Simulator interface. Defaults equal the former
hardcoded constants, so behavior is unchanged unless a season overrides.
- The admin simulator page is now a single "Simulator Configuration" card
with structured Engine and Input-derivation sections (profile-driven, so
each sport shows only the knobs it honors) plus an Advanced raw-JSON
escape hatch — all writing the same config.
Also: centralized the duplicated configNumber helpers into config-access.ts;
the central odds->Elo resolver now maps onto the configured Elo floor/ceiling
so those bounds set the odds-derived spread (a real flattening dial).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PAFMogMkFJf52YpHyCDvuf
* refactor(schema): rename per-window tables to season_* prefix
Renames participants, participant_expected_values, participant_qualifying_totals,
participant_results, participant_surface_elos to season_* prefixed names.
Renames event_results.participant_id to season_participant_id.
Phase 1a of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor: rename participant.ts model file to season-participant.ts
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(models): update model layer to use renamed schema exports
Updated all model files to use the renamed schema exports from Task 1:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantQualifyingTotals → seasonParticipantQualifyingTotals
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- participantSurfaceElos → seasonParticipantSurfaceElos
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
- db.query relation accessors updated
- Relation field .participant → .seasonParticipant where applicable
- Import paths updated: ./participant → ./season-participant
Files updated (14 model files + 3 test files):
- draft-pick.ts
- draft-utils.ts
- event-result.ts
- group-stage-match.ts
- participant-result.ts
- qualifying-points.ts
- scoring-calculator.ts
- scoring-event.ts
- sports-season.ts
- surface-elo.ts
- team-score-events.ts
- cs2-major-stage.ts
- golf-skills.ts
- participant-expected-value.ts
- __tests__/sports-season.clone.test.ts
- __tests__/auto-pick.test.ts
- __tests__/executeAutoPick.timer.test.ts
Typecheck errors decreased: 779 → 499 (280 fewer)
All model file errors related to renamed schemas resolved.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(routes): update route layer to use renamed schema exports
- Update model import from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
- Rename schema.participants to schema.seasonParticipants
- Rename schema.participantResults to schema.seasonParticipantResults
- Rename db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants
- Update 9 route files and 1 test file
Affected files:
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts
- admin.sports-seasons.$id.participants.tsx
- api/draft.force-manual-pick.ts
- api/draft.make-pick.ts
- api/draft.replace-pick.ts
- api/seasons.$seasonId.draft.ts
- leagues/$leagueId.draft-board.$seasonId.tsx
- leagues/$leagueId.sports-seasons.$sportsSeasonId.server.ts
- admin/__tests__/sports-seasons-participants.test.ts
Error count reduced from 499 to 453 (46 errors fixed).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(routes): update route files for schema rename
Update route imports from ~/models/participant to ~/models/season-participant
and fix references to .participant/.participantId on event results to use
.seasonParticipant/.seasonParticipantId after schema rename.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* refactor(services): update simulators and services for renamed schema
Update all simulators, services, and server files to use renamed schema tables:
- participants → seasonParticipants
- participantExpectedValues → seasonParticipantExpectedValues
- participantResults → seasonParticipantResults
- eventResults.participantId → eventResults.seasonParticipantId
Files updated:
- 20 sport simulators (NBA, NHL, NFL, MLB, etc.)
- probability-updater.ts
- standings-sync/index.ts
- sports-data-sync.server.ts
- server/socket.ts
Typecheck errors reduced from 365 to 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* migration: rename per-window tables to season_* prefix
* fix(tests): update mock query keys after participants table rename
Change mock db.query.participants to db.query.seasonParticipants in test
files to match the schema rename from commit 66145a9. This fixes
"Cannot read properties of undefined (reading 'findFirst'/'findMany')"
errors that occurred when production code queries db.query.seasonParticipants
but test mocks only defined the old participants key.
Files updated:
- app/services/simulations/__tests__/world-cup-simulator.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.force-manual-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- app/routes/api/__tests__/draft.make-pick.timer-mode.test.ts
- server/__tests__/timer-autodraft.test.ts
- app/models/__tests__/team-score-events.test.ts
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix(tests): update remaining mock paths and keys after schema rename
* fix(tests): final two mock stragglers after schema rename
- draft-pick.test.ts: assertion on db.query.participantQualifyingTotals
- process-match-result.test.ts: mock key participants → seasonParticipants
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* chore: add post-phase1a baseline capture (temp, for diff verification)
* chore: capture pre-migration baselines
* chore: remove post-phase1a capture helper after verification
* schema: add canonical tournament & participant tables
Adds tournaments, participants (canonical), tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos (canonical). Adds nullable tournament_id to
scoring_events and nullable participant_id to season_participants.
Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat(models): add canonical tournament, participant, result, surface-elo models
Adds CRUD modules for the canonical tables created in commit 775b905.
Each module mirrors existing app/models conventions (database() from
~/database/context, schema from ~/database/schema, mock-based tests).
Key implementation notes:
- participant.ts exports use "Canonical" prefix (CanonicalParticipant,
createCanonicalParticipant, etc.) to avoid collision with existing
season-participant.ts exports
- All four models include comprehensive unit tests following the
audit-log.test.ts pattern
- Tests use mocked db responses (no real database access)
- Upsert functions use onConflictDoUpdate for appropriate unique constraints
Part of Phase 1b of canonical tournament layer migration.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* migration: create canonical tables, add nullable FKs
* scripts: add extractTournamentIdentity helper for backfill
Pure function that derives canonical (name, year) identity from a
scoring_events row, stripping trailing 4-digit years from the name or
falling back to eventDate. Used by the Phase 2 backfill to group
per-window events into canonical tournaments.
* scripts: add backfill orchestrator for canonical layer
Populates canonical tournaments, participants, tournament_results, and
participant_surface_elos from per-window data for qualifying-points
sports. Skips already-linked rows, is idempotent, and supports dry-run
mode.
Critical invariants enforced by the implementation:
- qualifying_points_awarded is never copied to tournament_results
- season_participant_qualifying_totals is never touched
- conflicting surface-Elo values between windows raise a loud error
(recorded in report.errors) rather than overwriting
* scripts: add backfill CLI with dry-run default
Wires backfill-canonical-layer.ts to a CLI entry point exposed as
`npm run backfill:canonical`. Defaults to --dry-run; requires --apply
to actually write. Supports --sport=<uuid> to limit to a single sport.
Exits 2 if the backfill reports errors (e.g., surface-Elo conflicts).
* fix(backfill-cli): wrap runBackfill in DatabaseContext.run
The orchestrator uses database() from ~/database/context, which requires
AsyncLocalStorage to be populated. Wrap the CLI invocation with
DatabaseContext.run(db, ...) using server/db's cached connection pool.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix(backfill-cli): exit 0 on success so pg pool doesn't block
The cached postgres connection pool keeps the Node event loop open after
main() returns. Explicit process.exit(0) on success mirrors the pattern
in scripts/capture-baseline.ts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Chris Parsons <chrisp@extrahop.com>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Fixes#124
* Add NCAA Football CFP simulator (12-team bracket)
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for the College Football Playoff using
the 2024-present 12-team format. Elo/FPI ratings are entered manually via
the existing admin Elo Ratings page; championship futures odds can
optionally be blended in (60% Elo / 40% odds).
- Add CFP_12 bracket template (First Round not scoring, QFs onward score)
- Add generateCFP12Bracket() with correct seeding: 5v12, 6v11, 7v10, 8v9
in First Round; seeds 1–4 receive QF byes
- Add NCAAFootballSimulator: 50k Monte Carlo sims, seeds teams by blended
Elo+odds strength, tracks champion/finalist/SF/QF placement tiers
- Register ncaa_football_bracket simulator type in registry and schema enum
- Add migration 0071: ALTER TYPE simulator_type ADD VALUE 'ncaa_football_bracket'
- Add tests: 30 tests covering bracket template structure and simulator
probability distributions, seeding, edge cases, futures blending
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix lint errors in NCAA Football CFP simulator
Replace non-null assertions with optional chaining, change let to const,
use toSorted() instead of sort(), and add a bump() helper to avoid
repeated map lookups with non-null assertions in simulateBracket.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix TS2345 in NCAA football simulator test
Add ?? 0 fallback so optional-chained probFirst is number, not number | undefined.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude
