The previous commit did not build. `simulatorInputLabel` was called from the
rendered component for the Base Elo Source select, which defeated the
treeshaking that keeps the simulator manifest — and through it the registry,
every simulator, and ~/database/context — out of the browser. Vite fails the
client build outright with "Server-only module referenced by client". The
label is now resolved in the loader alongside inputColumns, which is the
pattern the loader comment already documents. Typecheck, lint and the unit
suite all passed on the broken commit; none of them run a production build.
A stale projection now yields to Elo instead of clamping to an extreme.
seedingWinRateFor clamped the rest-of-season target into [0.01, 0.99], so a
96-40 team projected for 95 was simulated to go 0-26 and a 40-70 team
projected for 95 was simulated to win out. A target outside (0, 1) is proof
the projection has gone stale, not a reason to bet everything on it, so it
falls back to the Elo rate — the same escape hatch nll-simulator uses. The
blend weight is also clamped inside the helper now, so a stray config value
cannot turn it into an extrapolation.
Seeding only applies a projection that actually produced the resolved Elo,
gated on metadata.sourceEloMethod via projectionForSeeding. Previously the raw
projection drove seeding regardless of the input policy: with the default
Elo-first ordering a projection was ignored as the Elo source yet still
dictated the standings, and with futures odds blended in at oddsWeight,
seeding and playoff matchups ran on two different strength scales.
The simulator page's preview resolved its Elo and rating maps only for
required inputs, but renders those columns solely from the maps, so stored
values displayed as "—" for profiles that treat the input as optional
(playoff_bracket, ncaam_bracket, golf_qualifying_points). Both maps now key
off the same required-plus-optional set the columns do.
The metadata upsert's CASE branches were mutually exclusive, so supplying any
metadata skipped the stale-flag clearing: a bulk row carrying both a direct
rating and a projection kept a stale ratingMethod and hid the rating it had
just set. Stripping now always runs, with the caller's metadata merged over
the result.
Not changed: projectedWinsWeight still defaults to 1 with no decay toward Elo.
That is the final-win-total semantics chosen for this work; the stale-target
fallback removes its pathological case.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CQSEmmojmqmGdJttgzqCWK
Entering projected wins for an in-progress MLB season did not behave as
expected: the entered numbers came back changed, and the simulation appeared
to ignore them in favour of whatever Elo was already stored. Four separate
defects were involved.
Projections are now stored and shown verbatim. The Elo Ratings page never
kept the number typed into it — the field was a display derived from Elo, so
a pasted 95 rendered as 95.1 the moment it was applied (wins to Elo rounds to
an integer Elo) and drifted again after each run, because a run re-resolves
that Elo through the input policy. The loader now reads back the stored
projection and the paste flow keeps the pasted value as-is; the derived
round-trip survives only as a prefill for seasons that have never had a
projection saved.
A stale Elo no longer silently outranks a projection. baseEloPriority takes
the first available base source, and the simulator page's bulk CSV wrote
projectedWins without stamping metadata.sourceEloMethod, so the
non-destructive upsert left the old Elo in place as a trusted direct value
and it won the race — the projection was stored and then ignored on every
run. The CSV path now stamps the flag like the Elo Ratings page does, the
metadata upsert merges rather than replaces so a flag-only write keeps
unrelated keys, and Base Elo Source is editable per season for the case where
a genuine hand-entered Elo should still lose to projections.
Projected wins now act as a projected final total. The value was baked into a
flat season-long rate (projectedWins / 162) applied to every remaining game,
so a team at 60-50 projected for 95 finished around 90.5 and the projection
was never reached mid-season. seedingWinRateFor spreads the difference over
the games still to play, which is a no-op pre-season where the two rates
coincide; projectedWinsWeight blends it back toward the Elo-implied rate.
Playoff-parity compression is restored for Elo-rated teams. eloToRDif scaled
by RDIF_DIVISOR, making it the exact algebraic inverse of winRateFromRDif, so
any team with an Elo skipped the compression every hardcoded-rdif team gets:
a 95-win projection became RDif +686 and played playoff games at .586 instead
of the documented ~.517. It now scales by SEEDING_RDIF_SCALE, landing at ~+140
alongside the Dodgers' hardcoded +137.
Also fixes the preview table's "missing a required input" marker, which
flagged every projection-configured participant because a generated Elo or
rating is deliberately hidden from getParticipantSimulatorInputs. It now
consults the resolved values, so it agrees with readiness.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CQSEmmojmqmGdJttgzqCWK
* docs: plan NLL preseason simulator
* Add NLL Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo simulator
14-team regular season (18 games) projects top-8 via Elo + decaying
projectedWins prior (adjusts for games already played). Playoff bracket:
QF single-game (1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5), SF and Finals best-of-3. Three
runtime modes: bracket-aware → known-seed → regular-season projection.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles,
sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs),
a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner
entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate
→ persist → snapshot → recalculate flow.
Key additions:
- manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/
optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections
- input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins,
projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds;
supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies
- runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises
derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants,
snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings
- /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run
- /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness
summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input
- NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs,
falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated
- Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo)
only copied when explicitly requested
Code-review fixes included in this commit:
- source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined
- sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the
participant is already excluded from all resolved sources
- Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel
- save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it
- Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N)
- CSV description notes values must not contain commas
- N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries
- assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests
- Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard,
readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
