- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements a 16-team UEFA Champions League knockout bracket simulator
using blended Elo + futures odds probabilities (70/30 split). Tracks
integer placement counts per tier to avoid fractional accumulation
drift, ensuring total EV sums to exactly 340 by construction.
- New UCLSimulator class reading live playoffMatches from DB
- Respects completed match results (eliminated teams get exact EV)
- New ucl_bracket simulator_type enum value + migration
- Registered in simulator registry; added to admin sport selector
- 18 unit tests covering math, bracket path, and integration scenarios
Fixes#113
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
