The simulator now reads surface Elo from the canonical table
(participant_surface_elos). The existing per-window admin page still
posts to batchUpsertSurfaceElos; without this change, those edits
would silently fail to affect simulator output. Mirror every write
to both tables until Phase 4 removes the per-window path entirely.
Phase 3 Task 5 (partial — canonical write path; dedicated canonical
admin UI deferred; existing page continues to work and now
edits both tables).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Switch the tennis simulator's Elo source from the per-window table
to the canonical participant_surface_elos via season_participants.participant_id.
Map key stays season_participant.id so the simulator's call pattern is unchanged.
Other functions in this file still read/write the per-window table
(seasonParticipantSurfaceElos). They back the old admin surface-elo page
and are removed in Phase 4 after the canonical admin flow replaces them.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements a Monte Carlo simulator for men's/women's tennis seasons scored
on the qualifying_points pattern. Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors
(Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) using surface-specific
Elo ratings and ATP/WTA world rankings for seeding.
New table: participant_surface_elos — one row per (participant, season)
storing worldRanking, eloHard, eloClay, eloGrass.
Key design decisions:
- Seeding uses ATP/WTA world ranking (not Elo), matching real draw procedure
- Top 32 seeded with standard slot placement (1→0, 2→64, 3-4→quarters, etc.)
- QP per round with tie-splitting pre-applied: W=20, F=14, SF=9, QF=4, R16=1.5
- Completed majors read actual qualifyingPointsAwarded from eventResults
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations; column sums naturally 1.0 (no normalization)
Admin UI at /admin/sports-seasons/:id/surface-elo:
- 5-column grid (Player | Rank | Hard | Clay | Grass)
- Bulk import: "Name, ranking, hardElo, clayElo, grassElo" one per line
- Fuzzy name matching (bigram Dice coefficient) with "Did you mean?" suggestions
- Inline participant creation for unmatched names via useFetcher
- Saves Elos and auto-runs simulation on submit
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
