- Add FIFA_48 bracket template with 12 groups of 4, knockout stage of 32
- Add tournament groups schema, model, and GroupStageDisplay component
- Add projected/expected value scoring to standings and team breakdowns
- Add docker-compose for local PostgreSQL development
- Move DRAFT_ORDER_IMPLEMENTATION.md to plans directory
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.
## Key Features
### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)
### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)
### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field
### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization
### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities
## Technical Details
- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing
## Future Enhancements
- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Added a comprehensive plan for bracket expansion, including support for 4, 8, 16, 32, and 68 team formats.
- Introduced a template-based bracket system with predefined templates for NCAA March Madness, NFL Playoffs, NBA Playoffs, and simple brackets.
- Updated UI flow for bracket creation, allowing admins to select templates and assign participants flexibly.
- Enhanced database schema to accommodate new scoring rules and bracket templates.
- Proposed updates to scoring logic to handle non-scoring rounds and participant placements correctly.
- Documented implementation phases for gradual rollout of new features.
- Addressed critical bugs in the playoff event processing and scoring logic, ensuring proper advancement and scoring rules across multiple leagues.
- Add scoringPattern and eventType enums for 4 scoring patterns
(single_elimination_playoff, page_playoff, season_standings, qualifying_points)
- Add 8 placement point fields to seasons table (1st-8th) with defaults
- Add scoring pattern fields to sportsSeasons table (scoringPattern, totalMajors, etc.)
- Create 10 new tables:
- scoring_events: Individual games, tournaments, races
- event_results: Participant results per event
- playoff_matches: Bracket tracking for playoffs
- participant_qualifying_totals: QP aggregation for golf/tennis
- qualifying_point_config: Configurable QP values per sport
- team_sport_scores: Aggregated scores per sport
- team_standings: Current standings with tiebreakers
- team_standings_snapshots: Daily snapshots for 7-day tracking
- participant_expected_values: EV calculations per league
- participant_season_results: F1 current points tracking
- Add all necessary relations for new tables
- Update test fixtures with new required scoring fields
