- input-policy: revert the odds->Elo change that passed the policy's
eloMin/eloMax into convertFuturesToElo. That widened the default odds-derived
spread (1100/1900 vs the calibrated 1250/1750) — sharpening favorites for
default-policy odds sims (UCL, World Cup, NCAA-FB, MLB) — and clamped the
blend of a high directly-entered base Elo down to the ceiling. Odds now use
the calibrated band; the policy's eloMin/eloMax still clamp the result
(clampDerived), so a season's floor/ceiling narrows the spread without
widening it or capping high base Elos.
- admin simulator UI: restrict the structured Engine fields to a
HONORED_ENGINE_KNOBS allowlist of keys actually read from config (by a
simulator or the input-policy resolver). Bespoke per-sim constants present in
a profile but not read from config (homeFieldElo, eloDivisor, srsEloScale,
raceNoise, plBeta, fieldSize, bracketSize, ...) no longer render as editable
controls that silently do nothing; the raw-JSON escape hatch still edits them.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PAFMogMkFJf52YpHyCDvuf
Two problems addressed:
1. Favorites' P(1st) was too sharp (e.g. NHL top teams ~20% vs ~12% implied).
- The NHL simulator hardcoded its parity factor (1000) and ignored the
season config's parityFactor, so the knob meant to flatten the
distribution did nothing. It also re-blended raw futures odds into every
game on top of the odds->Elo conversion, double-counting the same signal.
- NHL now reads parityFactor/iterations/seasonGames/overtimeRate from config
and no longer re-blends odds per game (odds enter once, via the central
odds->Elo resolver). Honoring parity 2500 flattens a top team from ~29% to
~13% title odds.
2. "Season Config" and "Input Policy" were two forms over the same stored
object that didn't reflect each other, and the engine-knob half was inert
for many simulators.
- Every simulator now reads its engine knobs (iterations everywhere;
parityFactor for all Elo-based sims) from the merged config, passed in by
the runner via the Simulator interface. Defaults equal the former
hardcoded constants, so behavior is unchanged unless a season overrides.
- The admin simulator page is now a single "Simulator Configuration" card
with structured Engine and Input-derivation sections (profile-driven, so
each sport shows only the knobs it honors) plus an Advanced raw-JSON
escape hatch — all writing the same config.
Also: centralized the duplicated configNumber helpers into config-access.ts;
the central odds->Elo resolver now maps onto the configured Elo floor/ceiling
so those bounds set the odds-derived spread (a real flattening dial).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01PAFMogMkFJf52YpHyCDvuf
Futures odds entry was split across two unrelated places: a standalone
/futures-odds page (which auto-ran the simulation on save and surfaced a
"Simulator is not ready" run failure as if the save itself had failed) and
the Bulk Simulator Inputs CSV importer on the simulator setup page.
Consolidate everything onto the Bulk Simulator Inputs card:
- batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs now COALESCE-wraps every conflict
update column, so a partial paste (e.g. odds-only) updates just the columns
it provides instead of nulling out previously stored Elo/rating/etc.
- The bulk importer accepts sportsbook-style paste (one team per line ending
in American odds) when no CSV header is present, reusing the existing fuzzy
matcher, and auto-runs the simulation on save. A not-ready run is reported
as a successful save plus the readiness gap, never as a failed save.
- Retire the standalone /futures-odds page (now redirects to the simulator
setup page) and drop the redundant Futures links.
- Remove the now-dead futures-only model paths (batchSaveSourceOdds,
clearSourceOddsForParticipants, batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator,
batchSaveParticipantSimulatorSourceOdds); the EV-table bridge is preserved
by batchUpsertParticipantSimulatorInputs.
- Repoint the test to the consolidated path and assert the non-destructive
COALESCE behaviour.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BHnoQ7myY3PzNdTnd7iGNE
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
Reviewed-on: #117
NCAAM and NCAAW simulators imported getParticipantSimulatorInputs from
models/simulator, which imports manifest.ts, which imports registry.ts —
creating a cycle back through registry.ts → simulator files. This caused
a TDZ ReferenceError in the client bundle.
Fix: inline a direct seasonParticipantSimulatorInputs query in both
simulators (they already run direct DB queries) instead of going through
the model layer, breaking the cycle.
Also moves getSimulatorInputPolicy from the component body to the loader
on the simulator setup page. The component calling it pulled input-policy.ts
→ manifest.ts → registry.ts → all simulator implementations into the client
bundle, which contain Node.js-only code and caused "Error loading route
module" in production.
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Introduces three new schema tables (simulator_profiles,
sports_season_simulator_configs, season_participant_simulator_inputs),
a central model layer (app/models/simulator.ts), and a single runner
entry point so every simulator run follows the same prepare → simulate
→ persist → snapshot → recalculate flow.
Key additions:
- manifest.ts: per-simulator display names, default configs, required/
optional inputs, derivable-input declarations, and setup sections
- input-policy.ts: resolves sourceElo from projectedWins,
projectedTablePoints, or sourceOdds; resolves ratings from sourceOdds;
supports block / fallbackElo / averageKnown / worstKnownMinus strategies
- runner.ts: single entry point for admin simulation runs; materialises
derived inputs, normalises result columns, zeroes omitted participants,
snapshots EVs, and recalculates linked fantasy standings
- /admin/simulators: inventory page with per-season readiness and bulk run
- /admin/sports-seasons/:id/simulator: per-season setup page with readiness
summary, input-policy editor, raw JSON config override, and CSV bulk input
- NCAAM/NCAAW simulators now read ratings from season_participant_simulator_inputs,
falling back to the hardcoded name-keyed maps while DB data is being populated
- Clone flow copies simulator config by default; volatile inputs (odds, Elo)
only copied when explicitly requested
Code-review fixes included in this commit:
- source field in compatibility bridge checked with !== null instead of !== undefined
- sourceEloRequirementLabel no longer appends "configured fallback" when the
participant is already excluded from all resolved sources
- Duplicate inline label maps in input-policy.ts replaced with simulatorInputLabel
- save-config preserves existing inputPolicy when the submitted JSON omits it
- Input table truncation label added (Showing 20 of N)
- CSV description notes values must not contain commas
- N+1 comment added to listSportsSeasonSimulatorSummaries
- assertRegistrySchemaDriftFree called in manifest tests
- Runner test suite added covering happy path, already-running guard,
readiness failure, empty results, and error recovery with status reset
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
