* feat: sync odds-based EV to participants table for draft room ranking
When admin enters futures odds or manual probabilities, the calculated EV
is now synced from participantExpectedValues to participants.expectedValue.
This closes the gap where EVs were calculated but never reflected in the
draft room ranking. Also changes expectedValue from integer to decimal(10,2)
for better precision, and displays "—" for participants with no odds data.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01JWG2zg2EMzCn6RgEufPC1T
* fix: correct expectedValue type to string in participants route
Missed instance of `expectedValue: 0` (number) that failed typecheck
after schema change from integer to decimal.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01JWG2zg2EMzCn6RgEufPC1T
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Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add FIFA_48 bracket template with 12 groups of 4, knockout stage of 32
- Add tournament groups schema, model, and GroupStageDisplay component
- Add projected/expected value scoring to standings and team breakdowns
- Add docker-compose for local PostgreSQL development
- Move DRAFT_ORDER_IMPLEMENTATION.md to plans directory
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.
## Key Features
### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)
### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)
### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field
### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization
### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities
## Technical Details
- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing
## Future Enhancements
- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis
🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)
Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Added a comprehensive plan for bracket expansion, including support for 4, 8, 16, 32, and 68 team formats.
- Introduced a template-based bracket system with predefined templates for NCAA March Madness, NFL Playoffs, NBA Playoffs, and simple brackets.
- Updated UI flow for bracket creation, allowing admins to select templates and assign participants flexibly.
- Enhanced database schema to accommodate new scoring rules and bracket templates.
- Proposed updates to scoring logic to handle non-scoring rounds and participant placements correctly.
- Documented implementation phases for gradual rollout of new features.
- Addressed critical bugs in the playoff event processing and scoring logic, ensuring proper advancement and scoring rules across multiple leagues.
- Add scoringPattern and eventType enums for 4 scoring patterns
(single_elimination_playoff, page_playoff, season_standings, qualifying_points)
- Add 8 placement point fields to seasons table (1st-8th) with defaults
- Add scoring pattern fields to sportsSeasons table (scoringPattern, totalMajors, etc.)
- Create 10 new tables:
- scoring_events: Individual games, tournaments, races
- event_results: Participant results per event
- playoff_matches: Bracket tracking for playoffs
- participant_qualifying_totals: QP aggregation for golf/tennis
- qualifying_point_config: Configurable QP values per sport
- team_sport_scores: Aggregated scores per sport
- team_standings: Current standings with tiebreakers
- team_standings_snapshots: Daily snapshots for 7-day tracking
- participant_expected_values: EV calculations per league
- participant_season_results: F1 current points tracking
- Add all necessary relations for new tables
- Update test fixtures with new required scoring fields
