Fixes the "slot is already filled" simulation error when First Four games
have already been played and their winners advanced to the Round of 64.
Changes:
- Fix FF→R64 validation to allow a filled R64 slot when the corresponding
First Four match is already complete (the original bug)
- Fix isComplete guard for E8/FF/Championship: derive loser from stored
participant IDs when loserId is null rather than re-simulating a real game
- Add round count validation for all rounds (R32 16, S16 8, E8 4, FF 2, Champ 1)
to catch malformed brackets before the hot sim loop instead of producing
silent garbage output
- Add participant1Id null check in the First Four path (mirrors the no-FF path)
- Add console.warn when participant IDs are missing from DB (fall-back to
average strength instead of crashing)
- Import NCAA_68.regions from bracket-templates.ts instead of duplicating the
hardcoded fallback in each simulator
- Fix duplicate step-9 comment number in ncaam-simulator.ts
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds a new `nba_bracket` simulator that projects both regular season
seedings and the full NBA playoff bracket, unlike other simulators that
operate on a pre-set bracket stored in the DB.
Algorithm:
- Per iteration: each team draws a conference seed (1–10) weighted by
BBRef seed probabilities, then seeds 7–10 play the Play-In tournament
(single elimination), then the resulting 8-team bracket is simulated
as best-of-7 series using Elo playoff ratings
- Elo source: playoff rating (last 110 games, no regression to mean,
postseason games weighted 3×) — appropriate for playoff matchup quality
- Seed probs source: Basketball-Reference (March 16, 2026), scaled from
conditional to unconditional by multiplying by each team's Playoffs%
Placement tiers map to SimulationProbabilities:
probFirst/Second → NBA champion / Finals loser
probThird/Fourth → Conference Finals losers (2 per sim)
probFifth–Eighth → Conference Semis losers (4 per sim)
Files:
- app/services/simulations/nba-simulator.ts (new)
- drizzle/0046_add_nba_bracket_simulator_type.sql (new)
- database/schema.ts: adds `nba_bracket` to simulatorTypeEnum
- app/services/simulations/registry.ts: registers NBASimulator
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replaces the duplicated F1Simulator (which was copy-pasted for IndyCar) with a
single AutoRacingSimulator that accepts a race points table at construction time.
Registry entries for f1_standings and indycar_standings remain separate, each
wired to the correct scoring system (F1: top-10, IndyCar: top-26 positions).
Also imports SIMULATOR_TYPES from registry into the admin route to eliminate the
duplicate hardcoded array, and updates stale comments mentioning F1/IndyCar.
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- NCAAM: KenPom AEM logistic formula (1/(1+exp(-diff/7.5))), data through 2025-26 March 15
- NCAAW: Barttorvik Barthag Log5 formula (A*(1-B)/(A*(1-B)+B*(1-A))), same bracket structure
- Both simulators: 50,000-iteration Monte Carlo, First Four simulation, honors completed matches
- Track E8+ placements only: champion, finalist, FF losers (3rd/4th), E8 losers (5th–8th)
- Add bracket configuration validation: null R64 slots must exactly match First Four mapping
- Fix DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES to 100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20 (3rd/4th=45, 5th–8th=20)
- Align scoring constants across simulate route, expected-values display, and server action
- Zero out EVs for non-bracket participants on every simulation run (prevents EV inflation)
- Add EV total invariant warning (expected ~340) on expected-values admin page
- 98 unit tests across NCAAM, NCAAW, and UCL simulators — all passing
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Implements a 16-team UEFA Champions League knockout bracket simulator
using blended Elo + futures odds probabilities (70/30 split). Tracks
integer placement counts per tier to avoid fractional accumulation
drift, ensuring total EV sums to exactly 340 by construction.
- New UCLSimulator class reading live playoffMatches from DB
- Respects completed match results (eliminated teams get exact EV)
- New ucl_bracket simulator_type enum value + migration
- Registered in simulator registry; added to admin sport selector
- 18 unit tests covering math, bracket path, and integration scenarios
Fixes#113
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: EV simulation framework with F1 Monte Carlo simulator
- Add EV snapshot tables (participant_ev_snapshots, team_ev_snapshots) and simulation_status column on sports seasons
- Add ev-snapshot model with upsert and history query functions
- Add simulator framework: types, bracket/F1/golf simulators, registry
- F1 simulator: vig-removed ICM weighted draw (pre-season) + race-by-race Monte Carlo from current standings (in-season); per-position column normalization to prevent floating-point EV drift
- Add admin simulate route and Run Simulation button on sports season page
- Rework futures-odds admin page to save odds then run simulation in one action
- Remove recalculate-probabilities route (superseded by simulate route)
- Remove EV trend chart panel and associated DB queries
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: map simulators to sports via simulatorType field
Adds a `simulator_type` enum column to the `sports` table so each sport
can be assigned a specific simulation algorithm rather than deriving it
from the sports season's scoring pattern.
- Add `simulatorTypeEnum` (f1_standings, indycar_standings,
golf_qualifying_points, playoff_bracket) + `simulatorType` nullable
column on `sports` table; migration 0037
- Rewrite simulator registry to key off `SimulatorType` instead of
`ScoringPattern`; indycar_standings shares F1Simulator for now
- `findSportsSeasonById` now returns `SportsSeasonWithSport` so callers
have typed access to `sport.simulatorType`
- Simulate and futures-odds actions read `sport.simulatorType`; guard
fires before setting `simulationStatus: running`
- Admin sport edit page gains a Simulator Type dropdown
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
