Monte Carlo simulation of the 2026 AFL season and 10-team finals series.
Elo ratings are backsolved from Squiggle's projected season win totals using
the inverse formula: elo = 1500 - 450×log₁₀((1−wins/23)/(wins/23)).
- New `afl_bracket` simulator type (schema + migration)
- `afl-simulator.ts`: projects remaining regular season via Elo, seeds the
AFL_10 finals bracket (Wildcard → QF/EF → SF → PF → Grand Final), and
correctly tracks P5/P6 and P7/P8 as separate scoring tiers
- `afl.ts` standings sync adapter pulling from Squiggle API (no auth required)
- Finals line on standings display set to 10 for AFL seasons
- Substring name matching with longest-key-wins to prevent "Port Adelaide"
colliding with "Adelaide" when matching "Port Adelaide Power"
- 27 unit tests covering bracket logic, column-sum guarantees, and name matching
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* feat: add Sentry error monitoring (#77)
Installs and configures @sentry/react-router with server and client
instrumentation. Disabled in development to avoid noise; only active
in production.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* chore: add VSCode Sentry MCP server config
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix: pass vite env to sentryReactRouter plugin
sentryReactRouter requires the ConfigEnv as a second argument to read
the vite `command` property.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
When a participant wins a bracket round, they immediately earn provisional
"floor" points (the averaged minimum they'd receive if eliminated next round).
These update as they advance and are replaced by finalized scores on elimination.
Key changes:
- Add `is_partial_score` column to `participant_results` (migration 0038)
- `processPlayoffEvent`: assign provisional position 5 to non-scoring round
winners; assign round-appropriate floors to scoring round winners via
`getGuaranteedMinimumPosition`; add catch-all for unrecognized round names
- `upsertParticipantResult`: guard against un-finalizing rows (never overwrite
isPartialScore=false with true)
- `calculateBracketPoints`: new function averaging tied bracket tiers
(5-8 → 20 pts, 3-4 → avg, 1-2 solo); used in `calculateTeamScore` for
playoff_bracket pattern (pattern-aware, doesn't affect F1/golf scoring)
- `PlayoffBracket`: "In Contention" table for still-active participants;
AFL double-chance fix (participants who won a later match excluded from
earlier round's loser list); correct `nextRank` starting position
- Server loader: batch owner DB queries (one query vs N+1); deduplicate
participantPoints; use calculateBracketPoints for bracket point display
- Clean up Phase/Q-number tracking comments throughout scoring-calculator.ts
- 3 new tests for non-scoring round provisional floor behavior
Also includes a dev admin bypass via DEV_ADMIN_CLERK_ID env var (separate
change on this branch, not part of floor scoring feature).
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
