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Author SHA1 Message Date
Chris Parsons
552fe28b99 Fix no-non-null-assertion lint violations and promote to error 
Eliminates all 208 no-non-null-assertion warnings across 38 files.
Promotes typescript/no-non-null-assertion from warn to error in
.oxlintrc.json.

Fix patterns applied:
- Map.get(key)! after .has() check → extract with get() + null guard
- Map.get(key)! on pre-populated count maps → ?? 0 default
- .set(id, map.get(id)! + 1) increment → ?? 0 before adding
- participant1Id!/participant2Id! on DB matches → ?? "" fallback
- array.find()! in tests → guard + throw or expect().toBeDefined()
- bracketTemplateCache.get(id)! → null guard extract
- Various nullable field accesses → optional chain or ?? default

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-03-21 10:48:48 -07:00
Chris Parsons
840212c4f8 feat: implement sports season expected value calculations and probability updates 
- Added loader and action functions for managing expected values in sports seasons.
- Implemented UI for recalculating probabilities based on participant results.
- Created a service to update probabilities after results are finalized, including handling finished and unfinished participants.
- Developed tests for the probability updater service to ensure correct functionality.
- Introduced a preview feature to show potential changes before applying updates.
 2025-11-21 22:05:50 -08:00
Chris Parsons
79ec477a98 feat: implement Expected Value System with ICM probability calculator 
Implements Phase 5.2 of the EV system with Harville-Malmuth Independent Chip Model
for calculating participant placement probabilities from futures odds.

## Key Features

### ICM Probability Calculator
- Implements Harville-Malmuth method for distributing probabilities
- Converts American odds to championship probabilities
- Generates P(1st) through P(8th) for all participants
- Column-normalized: each placement sums to 100% across all teams
- Works with any number of participants (not limited to 8)

### Admin UI - Futures Odds Entry
- Enter American odds (e.g., +550, -200) for championship futures
- Live preview of ICM-calculated probability distributions
- Displays all 8 placement probabilities
- Persists odds for editing on subsequent visits
- Automatic probability normalization (removes bookmaker vig)

### Database Schema Updates
- Renamed participant_expected_values.season_id → sports_season_id
- Updated foreign key to reference sports_seasons instead of seasons
- Added source_odds field to store original futures odds
- Migration 0025: Column rename and FK update
- Migration 0026: Add source_odds field

### Model Layer
- participant-expected-value: CRUD operations for probability distributions
- Supports multiple probability sources (manual, futures_odds, elo_simulation)
- Automatic EV calculation based on league scoring rules
- Probability validation and normalization

### Service Layer
- icm-calculator: Harville-Malmuth probability distribution
- probability-engine: Odds conversion and Elo utilities (for future use)
- bracket-simulator: Monte Carlo simulation (for future hybrid approach)
- ev-calculator: Expected value computation from probabilities

## Technical Details

- Uses exponential decay favoring top positions for strong teams
- Preserves championship probability ordering in final distributions
- Row sums vary (strong teams ~100%, weak teams lower)
- All probabilities between 0-1, mathematically valid
- Comprehensive test suite: 97 tests passing

## Future Enhancements

- Hybrid approach: ICM pre-playoffs, bracket simulation during playoffs
- Integration with league-specific scoring rules
- Historical probability tracking for accuracy analysis

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2025-11-17 22:19:46 -08:00