Three review follow-ups on the conditioning change:
- reconcileAdvancers no longer flips a result that is locked in from real
match data. Locked advancers are kept out of the demotion pool and
locked-eliminated teams out of the promotion pool; they are only touched
as a last resort when there aren't enough non-locked teams to reach the
8-advancer target (a genuinely inconsistent snapshot). buildStageInitialRecords
now also returns the lockedAdvanced set for this.
- simulateChampionsStage only honors recorded bracket results when the real
bracket pairings are actually in use (realBracket). Previously a recorded
winner could be applied to a fictitious Elo-seeded pairing.
- Per-stage Swiss W-L reconstruction is loop-invariant, so it is now computed
once per event in CSMajorSimulator.simulate and passed in via
options.swissRecords instead of being re-derived on every Monte Carlo
iteration.
Adds direct unit coverage for reconcileAdvancers (protection + last-resort
fallback) and for the bracket-gating behavior.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_018zMG6JFng8bMqZYweffVuE
The CS2 Major projected-points simulator re-simulated outcomes that had
already happened, so its projections drifted from reality as a major
played out. Specifically it ignored the Champions Stage bracket entirely
(re-simulating the whole 8-team playoff each iteration), only locked in
Swiss stages all-or-nothing once 8 eliminations were recorded, seeded the
bracket by world rank rather than real Stage 3 performance, and read
qualifying points only from fully-completed events.
This conditions each simulation on whatever is already known and only
randomizes the undecided remainder:
- Champions Stage now honors the real bracket (playoffMatches): actual QF
pairings supply the seeding, and any completed QF/SF/Final result is used
verbatim instead of re-simulated. Falls back to Elo seeding when no
bracket exists.
- Swiss stages reconstruct each team's current W-L from real match results
(seasonMatches) so partly-played stages lock in their decided games and
only the remaining teams are simulated; generalize simulateSwiss to start
from seeded records.
- Provisional QP already written to event_results for settled (eliminated)
teams is used verbatim.
- reconcileAdvancers keeps each stage at exactly 8 advancers so ragged
mid-stage snapshots can't produce malformed downstream stages.
Adds unit coverage for bracket honoring (full and partial), partial-stage
locking, and recorded-QP override.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_018zMG6JFng8bMqZYweffVuE
* Add notParticipating flag to allow excluding withdrawn participants from qualifying-points simulators
Adds a `not_participating` boolean column to `event_results` so admins can
mark a participant as not competing in a specific upcoming major (e.g. Alcaraz
withdrawing from Wimbledon due to injury). The golf, tennis, and CS2 major
simulators now query this flag for incomplete events and exclude those
participants from the event's draw/field, redistributing probability weight
to the remaining field. Admin UI for qualifying major_tournament events gains
a "Not Participating" card to mark/unmark withdrawals before the event runs.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01HxNPLEXzr5Km3suWrJe2F9
* Address code review feedback on not-participating flag
Security: unmark-not-participating now validates the result exists, belongs
to this event, and is actually a DNP row before deleting. mark-not-participating
now returns a user-friendly error on duplicate-key constraint violations.
Code quality: extract shared getExcludedByEventMap() utility to event-result
model, eliminating the duplicated 20-line exclusion-loading block that was
copy-pasted into all three simulators. Fix hasParticipantResult() to exclude
notParticipating rows so it correctly reflects actual competition participation.
Remove optional chaining on the non-optional notParticipatingIds field in the
admin UI. Fix misleading empty-state message.
Tests: replace the misleading first tennis DNP test (which never used the
activeIds variable it created) with a test that explicitly validates the
fallback behaviour when too few players remain after exclusion. Add three CS2
DNP tests covering the excluded-team-gets-zero-QP path, the redistribution
of wins, and per-event pool independence.
https://claude.ai/code/session_01HxNPLEXzr5Km3suWrJe2F9
* Fix lint errors: replace non-null assertions in CS2 DNP test
https://claude.ai/code/session_01HxNPLEXzr5Km3suWrJe2F9
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix CS Major simulator bugs and accuracy issues (fixes#275)
- Fix crash when pool teams are missing Elo ratings by including all
participants with FALLBACK_ELO, ensuring Champions Stage always gets
exactly 8 teams
- Add AdvancedTeam type tracking losses-at-advancement; seed Champions
Stage by stage performance (fewer losses = higher seed) instead of
world rank alone
- Promote decisive Stage 2 matches (either team at ≥2W or ≥2L) to Bo3,
matching the real Challengers Stage format
- Tie-split QP for QF losers (slots 5–8) and SF losers (slots 3–4)
instead of assigning arbitrary individual placements
- Change stage-complete threshold from === 8 to >= 8 for robustness
- Validate even team count in simulateSwiss to prevent silent infinite loops
- Short-circuit Monte Carlo loop when all events are complete, returning
deterministic 0/1 probabilities
- Parallelize stage results DB fetches with Promise.all
- Export calcStage3ExitQP and simulateOneMajor; add test coverage for
both, plus new simulateSwiss and simulateChampionsStage edge cases
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Fix oxlint violations in CS Major simulator
- Replace non-null assertion (!) with null-safe guard in simulateOneMajor
- Replace non-null assertions in test expectations with nullish coalescing
- Move makeStage3QPConfig out of describe block (no captured variables)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* Add CS2 Major qualifying points simulator
Implements a full CS2 Major tournament simulator with:
- 3-stage Swiss format (Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1/Bo3, Decider all Bo3)
+ Champions Stage 8-team single-elimination (QF Bo3, SF Bo3, GF Bo5)
- Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) accumulating QP across 2 majors/season
- Sampled 24-team field per iteration: top 12 guaranteed, remaining weighted by 1/rank
- Stage 3 exits (placements 9-16) sub-ranked by W-L record (2-3 > 1-3 > 0-3)
- Stage assignments stored per-event so actual field composition drives simulation
- Admin CS Elo form for entering team Elo + HLTV world rankings
- Admin CS2 stage setup page for assigning teams to stages and tracking advancement
- Database migration: cs2_major_qualifying_points enum value + cs2_major_stage_results table
- 24 unit tests covering all exported pure functions
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate Elo + ranking input into generic elo-ratings page
The darts-elo and cs-elo pages were unreachable from the admin nav,
which always links to the generic elo-ratings page. Extended elo-ratings
to conditionally show world ranking fields for simulator types that need
it (darts_bracket, cs2_major_qualifying_points), then deleted the
redundant sport-specific pages.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Consolidate server postgres connections into one shared pool
Four separate postgres() clients were open simultaneously (app, timer,
snapshots, socket), each defaulting to 10 connections, exhausting the
database's max_connections limit. Replaced with a single shared lazy-
initialized client in server/db.ts using a Proxy to defer the
DATABASE_URL check until first use (preserving test compatibility).
Also bumps the CS2 Champions Stage stochastic test from 200 → 1000
iterations to eliminate flakiness.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix and() bug and add Swiss loop safety guard
- cs2-major-stage.ts: markCs2StageEliminations and setCs2FinalPlacements
were using JS && instead of Drizzle and(), causing WHERE to filter only
by participantId (not scoringEventId), which would update rows across
all events instead of just the target event
- cs-major-simulator.ts: add break guard in simulateSwiss while loop to
prevent infinite loop if pairGroups returns no pairs
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix all remaining code review issues
- cs2-major-stage.ts: use schema column reference for stageEliminated
in markCs2StageEliminations instead of raw SQL string
- cs-major-simulator.ts: simulateOneMajor now locks in known stage
results when a stage is complete (8 recorded eliminations), only
simulating the remaining stages during live events
- admin event page: add CS2 Stage Setup button for cs2_major_qualifying_points
simulator types; expose simulatorType in server loader type cast
- cs2-setup.tsx: replace document.getElementById DOM manipulation with
React state (eliminatedChecked map) for checkbox show/hide logic;
remove unused stageMap and unassignedParticipants variables
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix oxlint errors: non-null assertions, sort→toSorted, unused vars
- cs-major-simulator.ts: replace 5 non-null assertions (!) with safe
optional chaining / if-guards; replace 6 .sort() with .toSorted()
- cs2-major-stage.ts: remove unused `inArray` import
- cs2-setup.tsx: remove unused `assignedIds` variable
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
* Fix flaky Champions Stage stochastic test
The makeTeams(8) helper creates only a 70-pt Elo spread (1800→1730).
With the Champions Stage bracket math this gives team-0 a ~19.6% win
rate — right at the 0.2 threshold, causing the test to fail ~63% of
the time in CI despite 1000 iterations.
Use 100-pt steps (1800→1100) instead, giving team-0 a ~40% win rate
and raising the assertion threshold to 0.25 for a clear safety margin.
https://claude.ai/code/session_019w21Nkf5TvTZHH6oVHaQXR
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
