claude/exciting-ride-q1jq8k #101

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chrisp merged 3 commits from claude/exciting-ride-q1jq8k into main

2026-06-20 03:56:28 +00:00

chrisp commented

2026-06-20 03:23:41 +00:00

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chrisp added 2 commits 2026-06-20 03:23:41 +00:00

Condition CS2 Major simulator on already-known results 8990bf4281

The CS2 Major projected-points simulator re-simulated outcomes that had
already happened, so its projections drifted from reality as a major
played out. Specifically it ignored the Champions Stage bracket entirely
(re-simulating the whole 8-team playoff each iteration), only locked in
Swiss stages all-or-nothing once 8 eliminations were recorded, seeded the
bracket by world rank rather than real Stage 3 performance, and read
qualifying points only from fully-completed events.

This conditions each simulation on whatever is already known and only
randomizes the undecided remainder:

- Champions Stage now honors the real bracket (playoffMatches): actual QF
  pairings supply the seeding, and any completed QF/SF/Final result is used
  verbatim instead of re-simulated. Falls back to Elo seeding when no
  bracket exists.
- Swiss stages reconstruct each team's current W-L from real match results
  (seasonMatches) so partly-played stages lock in their decided games and
  only the remaining teams are simulated; generalize simulateSwiss to start
  from seeded records.
- Provisional QP already written to event_results for settled (eliminated)
  teams is used verbatim.
- reconcileAdvancers keeps each stage at exactly 8 advancers so ragged
  mid-stage snapshots can't produce malformed downstream stages.

Adds unit coverage for bracket honoring (full and partial), partial-stage
locking, and recorded-QP override.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_018zMG6JFng8bMqZYweffVuE

Harden CS2 simulator: protect locked results, gate recorded bracket, hoist recon

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2420cf3c19

Three review follow-ups on the conditioning change:

- reconcileAdvancers no longer flips a result that is locked in from real
  match data. Locked advancers are kept out of the demotion pool and
  locked-eliminated teams out of the promotion pool; they are only touched
  as a last resort when there aren't enough non-locked teams to reach the
  8-advancer target (a genuinely inconsistent snapshot). buildStageInitialRecords
  now also returns the lockedAdvanced set for this.
- simulateChampionsStage only honors recorded bracket results when the real
  bracket pairings are actually in use (realBracket). Previously a recorded
  winner could be applied to a fictitious Elo-seeded pairing.
- Per-stage Swiss W-L reconstruction is loop-invariant, so it is now computed
  once per event in CSMajorSimulator.simulate and passed in via
  options.swissRecords instead of being re-derived on every Monte Carlo
  iteration.

Adds direct unit coverage for reconcileAdvancers (protection + last-resort
fallback) and for the bracket-gating behavior.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_018zMG6JFng8bMqZYweffVuE

chrisp added 1 commit 2026-06-20 03:34:38 +00:00

Fix lint errors in CS2 simulator and tests

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fdccde998e

- Change != null → !== null for strict equality (eqeqeq)
- Replace non-null assertions with as casts (no-non-null-assertion)
- Move helper functions to module scope (consistent-function-scoping)
- Use Array#toSorted() instead of Array#sort() (no-array-sort)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Haiku 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>