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Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists #109

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chrisp merged 1 commit from claude/determined-einstein-dzzjtk into main 2026-06-25 18:04:47 +00:00
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chrisp commented 2026-06-25 17:58:54 +00:00
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When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already
had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently
ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL).

Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the
sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator()
only cleared the bracket-seeding rating/ratingMethod — never the stale
sourceElo/sourceEloMethod. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not
treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver.

Fix:

  • batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips
    sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the
    existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run.
  • resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants
    (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the
    configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500.
  • batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as
    futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating.

Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the
post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the
new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 noreply@anthropic.com
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH

When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL). Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator() only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale `sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver. Fix: - batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run. - resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500. - batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating. Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
chrisp added 1 commit 2026-06-25 17:58:54 +00:00
Fix futures odds being ignored when stale Elo exists
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88248e349c 
When an admin entered futures (preseason) odds for a season that already
had Elo ratings stored, the simulator kept using the old Elo and silently
ignored the new odds. This affected any Elo-based simulator (e.g. NHL).

Root cause: resolveSourceElos() ranks a direct sourceElo above the
sourceOdds -> convertFuturesToElo branch, but batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator()
only cleared the bracket-seeding `rating`/`ratingMethod` — never the stale
`sourceElo`/`sourceEloMethod`. A manually entered Elo (method "direct") is not
treated as generated, so it survived and short-circuited the resolver.

Fix:
- batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator now also nulls sourceElo and strips
  sourceEloMethod (both the pre-update and upsert-conflict paths), so the
  existing futures -> Elo conversion drives the run.
- resolveSourceElos' sourceOdds branch now guards for >= 2 participants
  (mirroring resolveRatings), so a lone-odds season falls through to the
  configured missing-Elo strategy instead of getting a flat ~1500.
- batchSaveSourceOdds clears the legacy EV sourceElo and marks source as
  futures_odds so the elo-ratings page won't resurrect a stale rating.

Adds unit coverage for odds-derived Elo, the single-participant guard, the
post-clear regression, generated-vs-direct sourceElo suppression, and the
new clearing behavior in batchSaveFuturesOddsForSimulator.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNfUEd9RzD3zm84oLHBHUH
chrisp merged commit ab74b19420 into main 2026-06-25 18:04:47 +00:00
chrisp deleted branch claude/determined-einstein-dzzjtk 2026-06-25 18:04:47 +00:00
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Reference: chrisp/brackt#109
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