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claude/trusting-heisenberg-r6xnfi #90

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chrisp merged 3 commits from claude/trusting-heisenberg-r6xnfi into main

2026-06-15 03:34:44 +00:00

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2026-06-15 02:58:02 +00:00

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chrisp added 2 commits 2026-06-15 02:58:03 +00:00

Blend standings-based strength into F1/IndyCar EV simulation e507f82508

Championship futures odds rate mid-season drivers by likelihood to win the
title, which understates a driver like Hamilton (2nd in standings) because
the odds reflect the difficulty of closing a gap — not where he'll likely
finish. The simulator was using those odds as-is for all remaining race
win probabilities, making the current standings irrelevant to EV.

Fix: blend each driver's odds-derived strength with their share of total
current championship points, weighted by season progress (completedRaces /
totalRaces). Pre-season remains pure futures-odds; mid-season is a 50/50
blend; late-season standings dominate. Additionally scale PARTICIPANT_VOLATILITY
down by up to 70% as the season progresses to prevent unrealistic swings
when few races remain.

Applies equally to F1 and IndyCar via AutoRacingSimulator.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01FyG28zxsjSrgr8aKYuy6xY

Address code review findings in AutoRacingSimulator

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06a011f0ed

- Extract VOLATILITY_DECAY_FACTOR named constant (was magic 0.7) with docstring
- Replace two complementary allEvents.filter() calls with a single for-loop pass
- Move blendedProbs construction inside the in-season else branch (was built
  unconditionally even in pre-season where it was never read)
- Flatten nested totalCurrentPoints/pts conditions to a single ternary
- Emit a console.warn when participants are missing from standings data, so
  degraded blending is visible rather than silent
- Add AutoRacingSimulator test suite covering pre-season path, in-season
  standings-dominant blending, zero-points fallback, missing-standings warning,
  schedule_event exclusion, and column normalization

https://claude.ai/code/session_01FyG28zxsjSrgr8aKYuy6xY

chrisp added 1 commit 2026-06-15 03:26:51 +00:00

Fix lint errors in AutoRacingSimulator: no-non-null-assertion + no-console

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1bb70a06c3

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

chrisp merged commit dc94403160 into main

2026-06-15 03:34:44 +00:00

chrisp referenced this pull request from a commit

2026-06-15 03:34:46 +00:00

claude/trusting-heisenberg-r6xnfi (#90)

chrisp deleted branch claude/trusting-heisenberg-r6xnfi

2026-06-15 03:35:20 +00:00

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Reference: chrisp/brackt#90

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