app/models/__tests__/season-races.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach, type MockInstance } from "vitest";
+import { countSeasonRaces, hasRaceRun } from "../season-races";
+
+vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({
+  database: vi.fn(),
+}));
+
+const NOW = new Date("2026-08-17T12:00:00.000Z");
+const TODAY = "2026-08-17";
+
+interface EventRow {
+  eventType: string;
+  isComplete: boolean;
+  eventDate: string | null;
+  eventStartsAt: Date | null;
+}
+
+function makeEvent(overrides: Partial<EventRow> = {}): EventRow {
+  return {
+    eventType: "schedule_event",
+    isComplete: false,
+    eventDate: null,
+    eventStartsAt: null,
+    ...overrides,
+  };
+}
+
+async function mockEvents(events: EventRow[]) {
+  const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
+  (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue({
+    query: {
+      scoringEvents: {
+        findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(events),
+      },
+    },
+  });
+}
+
+beforeEach(async () => {
+  await mockEvents([]);
+});
+
+describe("hasRaceRun", () => {
+  it("trusts isComplete when an admin has set it", () => {
+    expect(
+      hasRaceRun(
+        { isComplete: true, eventDate: "2026-12-31", eventStartsAt: null },
+        NOW,
+        TODAY
+      )
+    ).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it("prefers eventStartsAt over eventDate", () => {
+    // Same day, but the green flag already dropped this morning.
+    expect(
+      hasRaceRun(
+        {
+          isComplete: false,
+          eventDate: TODAY,
+          eventStartsAt: new Date("2026-08-17T09:00:00.000Z"),
+        },
+        NOW,
+        TODAY
+      )
+    ).toBe(true);
+
+    expect(
+      hasRaceRun(
+        {
+          isComplete: false,
+          eventDate: TODAY,
+          eventStartsAt: new Date("2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z"),
+        },
+        NOW,
+        TODAY
+      )
+    ).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("treats a past date as run even when nobody marked it complete", () => {
+    expect(
+      hasRaceRun(
+        { isComplete: false, eventDate: "2026-08-16", eventStartsAt: null },
+        NOW,
+        TODAY
+      )
+    ).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it("treats a race happening today as still upcoming", () => {
+    expect(
+      hasRaceRun({ isComplete: false, eventDate: TODAY, eventStartsAt: null }, NOW, TODAY)
+    ).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("treats an undated row as upcoming", () => {
+    expect(
+      hasRaceRun({ isComplete: false, eventDate: null, eventStartsAt: null }, NOW, TODAY)
+    ).toBe(false);
+  });
+});
+
+describe("countSeasonRaces", () => {
+  it("counts schedule_event rows as races", async () => {
+    // This is the whole bug: a season_standings calendar is stored as
+    // schedule_event rows, and the simulator used to skip them.
+    await mockEvents([
+      makeEvent({ eventDate: "2026-03-01" }),
+      makeEvent({ eventDate: "2026-04-01" }),
+      makeEvent({ eventDate: "2026-09-01" }),
+    ]);
+    expect(await countSeasonRaces("s1", NOW)).toEqual({
+      completed: 2,
+      remaining: 1,
+      total: 3,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("excludes the final_standings scoring row", async () => {
+    await mockEvents([
+      makeEvent({ eventDate: "2026-03-01" }),
+      makeEvent({ eventType: "final_standings", eventDate: "2026-11-01" }),
+    ]);
+    expect(await countSeasonRaces("s1", NOW)).toEqual({
+      completed: 1,
+      remaining: 0,
+      total: 1,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("counts other event types too, whichever type the admin used", async () => {
+    await mockEvents([
+      makeEvent({ eventType: "major_tournament", eventDate: "2026-03-01" }),
+      makeEvent({ eventType: "playoff_game", eventDate: "2026-09-01" }),
+    ]);
+    expect(await countSeasonRaces("s1", NOW)).toEqual({
+      completed: 1,
+      remaining: 1,
+      total: 2,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("returns zeroes when the season has no events", async () => {
+    expect(await countSeasonRaces("s1", NOW)).toEqual({
+      completed: 0,
+      remaining: 0,
+      total: 0,
+    });
+  });
+
+  it("counts a realistic late-season IndyCar calendar", async () => {
+    const calendar = [
+      ...Array.from({ length: 15 }, (_, i) =>
+        makeEvent({ eventDate: `2026-0${((i % 6) + 3)}-0${(i % 9) + 1}` })
+      ),
+      makeEvent({ eventStartsAt: new Date("2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z") }),
+      makeEvent({ eventStartsAt: new Date("2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z") }),
+      makeEvent({ eventType: "final_standings" }),
+    ];
+    await mockEvents(calendar);
+    expect(await countSeasonRaces("s1", NOW)).toEqual({
+      completed: 15,
+      remaining: 2,
+      total: 17,
+    });
+  });
+});

app/models/season-races.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+/**
+ * Race-calendar state for season-standings sports (F1, IndyCar).
+ *
+ * Kept in its own leaf module rather than in `scoring-event.ts` so that
+ * `simulator.ts` can read it: `scoring-event.ts` pulls in `scoring-calculator`,
+ * which reaches `participant-expected-value` and back into `simulator`. This
+ * file imports nothing but the database.
+ */
+
+import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { database } from "~/database/context";
+import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
+
+export interface SeasonRaceCounts {
+  completed: number;
+  remaining: number;
+  total: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Has this race already been run?
+ *
+ * `is_complete` wins when an admin has set it, but a racing calendar is stored
+ * as "Non-Scoring" rows that nobody ever marks complete, so the date is the real
+ * signal. Mirrors the Upcoming / Results Pending badge on the admin events page.
+ * A race happening today is still upcoming, and a row with no date at all counts
+ * as upcoming.
+ *
+ * @param today `now` as a `YYYY-MM-DD` string, to compare against the date-only
+ *   `event_date` column.
+ */
+export function hasRaceRun(
+  event: {
+    isComplete: boolean;
+    eventDate: string | null;
+    eventStartsAt: Date | string | null;
+  },
+  now: Date,
+  today: string
+): boolean {
+  if (event.isComplete) return true;
+  if (event.eventStartsAt) return new Date(event.eventStartsAt) < now;
+  if (event.eventDate) return event.eventDate < today;
+  return false;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Count the races on a season-standings calendar (F1, IndyCar).
+ *
+ * `event_type` has no race value, so a racing calendar is stored as
+ * `schedule_event` rows — the admin default for the `season_standings` scoring
+ * pattern. The only other row such a season carries is the single
+ * `final_standings` event that assigns fantasy placements once the championship
+ * is settled. A race is therefore "every event except `final_standings`", not
+ * "every event except `schedule_event`" — getting that backwards leaves the
+ * simulator with zero remaining races and no idea the season is in progress.
+ */
+export async function countSeasonRaces(
+  sportsSeasonId: string,
+  now: Date = new Date(),
+  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
+): Promise<SeasonRaceCounts> {
+  const db = providedDb || database();
+
+  const events = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
+    where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
+    columns: {
+      eventType: true,
+      isComplete: true,
+      eventDate: true,
+      eventStartsAt: true,
+    },
+  });
+
+  const today = now.toISOString().split("T")[0];
+  let completed = 0;
+  let remaining = 0;
+
+  for (const event of events) {
+    if (event.eventType === "final_standings") continue;
+    if (hasRaceRun(event, now, today)) completed++;
+    else remaining++;
+  }
+
+  return { completed, remaining, total: completed + remaining };
+}

app/models/simulator.ts

@@ -15,6 +15,10 @@ import {
   sourceEloRequirementLabel,
 } from "~/services/simulations/input-policy";
 import { SIMULATOR_TYPES, type SimulatorType } from "~/services/simulations/registry";
+import { countSeasonRaces } from "~/models/season-races";
+
+/** Simulator types driven by a race calendar plus championship standings. */
+const RACE_CALENDAR_SIMULATORS: SimulatorType[] = ["f1_standings", "indycar_standings"];
 
 export interface SimulatorProfile extends SimulatorManifestProfile {
   isActive: boolean;
@@ -488,6 +492,19 @@ export async function validateSimulatorReadiness(
     }
   }
 
+  if (RACE_CALENDAR_SIMULATORS.includes(config.simulatorType)) {
+    // Without a calendar the simulator cannot tell how many races are left, so
+    // it falls back to futures odds and ignores the championship standings
+    // entirely. A warning, not a blocker — a season drafted before the schedule
+    // is published still needs to run.
+    const races = await countSeasonRaces(sportsSeasonId);
+    if (races.total === 0) {
+      warnings.push(
+        "No race calendar found for this season. Add the schedule on the events page — until then the simulation uses futures odds only and ignores championship standings."
+      );
+    }
+  }
+
   if (config.profile.setupSections.includes("regularStandings")) {
     warnings.push("Regular-season standings may be needed for in-season accuracy.");
   }

app/services/__tests__/probability-engine.test.ts

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ import {
   convertAmericanOddsToProbability,
   convertDecimalOddsToProbability,
   normalizeProbabilities,
+  devigPower,
   decompressProbability,
   mapToElo,
   eloWinProbability,
@@ -94,6 +95,64 @@ describe('probability-engine', () => {
     });
   });
 
+  describe('devigPower', () => {
+    /** 27-driver championship market: one -300 favourite and a long tail. */
+    const CHAMPIONSHIP_MARKET = [
+      -300, 450, 700, 1200, 1800, 2500, 4000, 5000, 6000, 8000, 10000, 12000,
+      15000, 20000, 25000, 30000, 40000, 50000, 50000, 50000, 50000, 50000,
+      50000, 50000, 50000, 50000, 50000,
+    ].map(convertAmericanOddsToProbability);
+
+    it('sums to exactly 1.0', () => {
+      const devigged = devigPower(CHAMPIONSHIP_MARKET);
+      expect(devigged.reduce((sum, p) => sum + p, 0)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10);
+    });
+
+    it('preserves a heavy favourite that proportional devig would gut', () => {
+      const proportional = normalizeProbabilities(CHAMPIONSHIP_MARKET);
+      const devigged = devigPower(CHAMPIONSHIP_MARKET);
+
+      // -300 is 75.0% implied. The book sums to ~1.36, so dividing everyone by
+      // the same overround drops the favourite to ~55%.
+      expect(CHAMPIONSHIP_MARKET[0]).toBeCloseTo(0.75, 4);
+      expect(proportional[0]).toBeCloseTo(0.553, 2);
+      expect(devigged[0]).toBeCloseTo(0.695, 2);
+      expect(devigged[0]).toBeGreaterThan(proportional[0]);
+    });
+
+    it('keeps a near-lock near-certain', () => {
+      const market = [-20000, ...Array(26).fill(50000)].map(convertAmericanOddsToProbability);
+      expect(normalizeProbabilities(market)[0]).toBeCloseTo(0.950, 2);
+      expect(devigPower(market)[0]).toBeCloseTo(0.993, 2);
+    });
+
+    it('preserves the ordering of the field', () => {
+      const devigged = devigPower(CHAMPIONSHIP_MARKET);
+      for (let i = 1; i < devigged.length; i++) {
+        expect(devigged[i]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(devigged[i - 1]);
+      }
+    });
+
+    it('normalizes a book that is already vig-free', () => {
+      const devigged = devigPower([0.5, 0.3, 0.2]);
+      expect(devigged[0]).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 6);
+      expect(devigged[1]).toBeCloseTo(0.3, 6);
+      expect(devigged[2]).toBeCloseTo(0.2, 6);
+    });
+
+    it('scales a single runner to certainty', () => {
+      expect(devigPower([0.8])).toEqual([1]);
+    });
+
+    it('returns an empty array for an empty market', () => {
+      expect(devigPower([])).toEqual([]);
+    });
+
+    it('returns a uniform field for an all-zero market', () => {
+      devigPower([0, 0, 0]).forEach(p => expect(p).toBeCloseTo(1 / 3, 6));
+    });
+  });
+
   describe('decompressProbability', () => {
     it('decompresses championship probabilities with default exponent', () => {
       expect(decompressProbability(0.154)).toBeCloseTo(2.465, 2);  // Colorado 15.4%

app/services/probability-engine.ts

@@ -109,6 +109,65 @@ export function normalizeProbabilities(probabilities: number[]): number[] {
   return probabilities.map(p => p / sum);
 }
 
+/**
+ * Remove vig with a power transform instead of proportional division.
+ *
+ * `normalizeProbabilities` divides every runner by the same book sum, which
+ * assumes the overround is spread evenly across the field. In a large futures
+ * market it is not — the juice is concentrated in the longshots, so dividing
+ * proportionally guts the favourite. In a 27-driver championship market with a
+ * book sum of 1.36, a 75.0% implied favourite comes out at 55.3%; with a book
+ * sum of 1.05, a -20000 near-lock comes out at 95.0%.
+ *
+ * The power method instead solves for the exponent `k` where `Σ pᵢ^k = 1`. Since
+ * `p^k` shrinks small probabilities much harder than large ones, the favourite
+ * keeps its shape: the same two markets give 69.5% and 99.3%.
+ *
+ * Solved by bisection — `Σ pᵢ^k` is monotonically decreasing in `k` for
+ * `pᵢ ∈ (0, 1)`, so 60 halvings of `[0.01, 10]` converge well past float
+ * precision.
+ *
+ * @param impliedProbs Raw implied probabilities (as decimals 0-1), vig included
+ * @returns Vig-free probabilities summing to 1.0
+ *
+ * @example
+ * devigPower([0.75, 0.18, 0.12, 0.09])  // favourite stays ~0.70, not ~0.65
+ */
+export function devigPower(impliedProbs: number[]): number[] {
+  if (impliedProbs.length === 0) return [];
+
+  // Clamp into the open interval: p^k is only monotonic in k for 0 < p < 1, and
+  // an exact 0 or 1 pins the bisection regardless of the rest of the field.
+  // Clamping also means an all-zero market cannot divide by zero: every runner
+  // ends up at the floor and the field comes back uniform.
+  const clamped = impliedProbs.map((p) =>
+    Math.min(1 - 1e-9, Math.max(1e-9, p))
+  );
+  const sum = clamped.reduce((acc, p) => acc + p, 0);
+
+  // A single runner, or a book with no overround to strip, has no exponent to
+  // find — fall through to proportional scaling.
+  if (clamped.length === 1 || sum <= 1) {
+    return normalizeProbabilities(clamped);
+  }
+
+  let low = 0.01;
+  let high = 10;
+  for (let i = 0; i < 60; i++) {
+    const mid = (low + high) / 2;
+    const total = clamped.reduce((acc, p) => acc + Math.pow(p, mid), 0);
+    if (total > 1) {
+      low = mid;
+    } else {
+      high = mid;
+    }
+  }
+
+  const k = (low + high) / 2;
+  // Renormalize: bisection lands within float noise of 1.0, not exactly on it.
+  return normalizeProbabilities(clamped.map((p) => Math.pow(p, k)));
+}
+
 /**
  * Decompress championship probability to single-game strength
  *

app/services/simulations/__tests__/auto-racing-simulator.test.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach, type MockInstance } from "vitest";
 import { AutoRacingSimulator } from "../auto-racing-simulator";
+import { F1_RACE_POINTS, INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS } from "../race-points";
 
 vi.mock("~/database/context", () => ({
   database: vi.fn(),
@@ -13,18 +14,18 @@ vi.mock("~/models/participant-expected-value", () => ({
   getAllParticipantEVsForSeason: vi.fn(),
 }));
 
-// ─── F1 race points (positions 1–10) ─────────────────────────────────────────
-const F1_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
-  1: 25, 2: 18, 3: 15, 4: 12, 5: 10, 6: 8, 7: 6, 8: 4, 9: 2, 10: 1,
-};
+vi.mock("~/models/season-races", () => ({
+  countSeasonRaces: vi.fn(),
+}));
 
 // ─── Fixtures ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 const DRIVERS = ["d1", "d2", "d3", "d4", "d5"].map((id) => ({ id }));
 
-function makeEvent(isComplete: boolean, eventType = "race") {
-  return { isComplete, eventType };
-}
+const PROB_KEYS = [
+  "probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
+  "probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth",
+] as const;
 
 function makeSeasonResult(participantId: string, currentPoints: string) {
   return { participant: { id: participantId }, currentPoints };
@@ -34,53 +35,66 @@ function makeEv(participantId: string, sourceOdds: number | null) {
   return { participantId, sourceOdds };
 }
 
-function mockDb(events: ReturnType<typeof makeEvent>[]) {
+function mockDb(drivers: { id: string }[] = DRIVERS) {
   return {
     query: {
       seasonParticipants: {
-        findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(DRIVERS),
-      },
-      scoringEvents: {
-        findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(events),
+        findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(drivers),
       },
     },
   };
 }
 
-// ─── Setup ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/** Set the race counts the simulator reads from the calendar. */
+async function setRaceCounts(completed: number, remaining: number) {
+  const { countSeasonRaces } = await import("~/models/season-races");
+  (countSeasonRaces as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue({
+    completed,
+    remaining,
+    total: completed + remaining,
+  });
+}
 
-let db: ReturnType<typeof mockDb>;
+async function setStandings(results: ReturnType<typeof makeSeasonResult>[]) {
+  const { getSeasonResults } = await import("~/models/participant-season-result");
+  (getSeasonResults as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue(results);
+}
+
+async function setOdds(evs: ReturnType<typeof makeEv>[]) {
+  const { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } = await import("~/models/participant-expected-value");
+  (getAllParticipantEVsForSeason as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue(evs);
+}
+
+async function useDrivers(drivers: { id: string }[]) {
+  const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
+  (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb(drivers));
+}
+
+// ─── Setup ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 beforeEach(async () => {
   const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
-  const { getSeasonResults } = await import("~/models/participant-season-result");
-  const { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } = await import("~/models/participant-expected-value");
-
-  db = mockDb([]);
-  (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(db);
-  (getSeasonResults as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([]);
-  (getAllParticipantEVsForSeason as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([]);
+  (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(mockDb());
+  await setStandings([]);
+  await setOdds([]);
+  await setRaceCounts(0, 0);
 });
 
 // ─── Tests ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
   it("throws when no participants are found", async () => {
-    db.query.seasonParticipants.findMany.mockResolvedValue([]);
+    await useDrivers([]);
     await expect(
       new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1")
     ).rejects.toThrow(/No participants found/);
   });
 
-  describe("pre-season path (remainingRaces === 0)", () => {
+  describe("pre-season path (no races run, none remaining)", () => {
     beforeEach(async () => {
-      const { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } = await import("~/models/participant-expected-value");
-      // No scoring events → remainingRaces = 0
-      db = mockDb([]);
-      const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
-      (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(db);
+      await setRaceCounts(0, 0);
       // Heavy favourite: d1 at −500, all others at +1000
-      (getAllParticipantEVsForSeason as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([
+      await setOdds([
         makeEv("d1", -500),
         makeEv("d2", 1000),
         makeEv("d3", 1000),
@@ -96,11 +110,7 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
 
     it("normalizes each position column to sum to 1.0", async () => {
       const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
-      const keys = [
-        "probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
-        "probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth",
-      ] as const;
-      for (const key of keys) {
+      for (const key of PROB_KEYS) {
         const sum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0);
         expect(sum, `${key} column sum`).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 6);
       }
@@ -117,8 +127,7 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
     });
 
     it("drivers without odds get equal fallback probability", async () => {
-      const { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } = await import("~/models/participant-expected-value");
-      (getAllParticipantEVsForSeason as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([]);
+      await setOdds([]);
       const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
       // With equal weights all 5 drivers should finish 1st roughly equally
       for (const r of results) {
@@ -126,30 +135,106 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
         expect(r.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.3);
       }
     });
+
+    it("floors an unpriced driver at the bottom of the priced market", async () => {
+      // d5 has no odds at all; d2–d4 are +1000 long shots. Before power devig
+      // an unpriced driver was handed 1/N, which rated them above the field.
+      await setOdds([
+        makeEv("d1", -500),
+        makeEv("d2", 1000),
+        makeEv("d3", 1000),
+        makeEv("d4", 1000),
+      ]);
+      const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
+      const unpriced = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "d5");
+      const longShot = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "d2");
+      expect(unpriced).toBeDefined();
+      expect(longShot).toBeDefined();
+      if (!unpriced || !longShot) return;
+      expect(unpriced.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThanOrEqual(
+        longShot.probabilities.probFirst + 0.02
+      );
+    });
   });
 
-  describe("in-season path (remainingRaces > 0)", () => {
-    beforeEach(async () => {
-      const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
-      // 10 completed races, 5 remaining
-      db = mockDb([
-        ...Array.from({ length: 10 }, () => makeEvent(true)),
-        ...Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => makeEvent(false)),
+  describe("season complete (races run, none remaining)", () => {
+    it("returns the final standings order deterministically", async () => {
+      await setRaceCounts(17, 0);
+      // getSeasonResults returns rows already sorted by championship position.
+      await setStandings([
+        makeSeasonResult("d3", "601"),
+        makeSeasonResult("d1", "480"),
+        makeSeasonResult("d5", "446"),
+        makeSeasonResult("d2", "420"),
+        makeSeasonResult("d4", "398"),
       ]);
-      (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(db);
+      // Futures odds disagree entirely — they must be ignored once it is over.
+      await setOdds([makeEv("d1", -10000), makeEv("d3", 20000)]);
+
+      const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
+      const byId = new Map(results.map((r) => [r.participantId, r.probabilities]));
+
+      expect(byId.get("d3")?.probFirst).toBe(1);
+      expect(byId.get("d1")?.probFirst).toBe(0);
+      expect(byId.get("d1")?.probSecond).toBe(1);
+      expect(byId.get("d5")?.probThird).toBe(1);
+      expect(byId.get("d2")?.probFourth).toBe(1);
+      expect(byId.get("d4")?.probFifth).toBe(1);
+    });
+
+    it("warns and falls back to odds when there are no standings rows", async () => {
+      const warnSpy = vi.spyOn(console, "warn").mockImplementation(() => {});
+      await setRaceCounts(17, 0);
+      await setStandings([]);
+      await setOdds([makeEv("d1", -500), makeEv("d2", 1000)]);
+
+      const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
+
+      expect(warnSpy).toHaveBeenCalledWith(
+        expect.stringContaining("no races left but no standings rows")
+      );
+      // Still produces a usable distribution rather than all zeroes.
+      const total = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0);
+      expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 6);
+      warnSpy.mockRestore();
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("no race calendar", () => {
+    it("warns when the season has championship points but no events", async () => {
+      const warnSpy = vi.spyOn(console, "warn").mockImplementation(() => {});
+      await setRaceCounts(0, 0);
+      await setStandings([makeSeasonResult("d1", "400"), makeSeasonResult("d2", "300")]);
+
+      await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
+
+      expect(warnSpy).toHaveBeenCalledWith(
+        expect.stringContaining("championship points but no race calendar")
+      );
+      warnSpy.mockRestore();
+    });
+
+    it("stays quiet for a genuine pre-season with no points yet", async () => {
+      const warnSpy = vi.spyOn(console, "warn").mockImplementation(() => {});
+      await setRaceCounts(0, 0);
+      await setStandings([]);
+
+      await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
+
+      expect(warnSpy).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+      warnSpy.mockRestore();
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("in-season path (races remaining)", () => {
+    beforeEach(async () => {
+      await setRaceCounts(10, 5);
     });
 
     it("normalizes each position column to sum to 1.0", async () => {
-      const { getSeasonResults } = await import("~/models/participant-season-result");
-      (getSeasonResults as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue(
-        DRIVERS.map((d, i) => makeSeasonResult(d.id, String((5 - i) * 50)))
-      );
+      await setStandings(DRIVERS.map((d, i) => makeSeasonResult(d.id, String((5 - i) * 50))));
       const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
-      const keys = [
-        "probFirst", "probSecond", "probThird", "probFourth",
-        "probFifth", "probSixth", "probSeventh", "probEighth",
-      ] as const;
-      for (const key of keys) {
+      for (const key of PROB_KEYS) {
         const sum = results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities[key], 0);
         expect(sum, `${key} column sum`).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 6);
       }
@@ -157,17 +242,9 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
 
     it("standings leader ranks higher than a driver far behind when standings dominate", async () => {
       // 20/25 races done → seasonProgress = 0.8 → standings weighted 80%
-      const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
-      db = mockDb([
-        ...Array.from({ length: 20 }, () => makeEvent(true)),
-        ...Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => makeEvent(false)),
-      ]);
-      (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(db);
-
-      const { getSeasonResults } = await import("~/models/participant-season-result");
-      const { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } = await import("~/models/participant-expected-value");
+      await setRaceCounts(20, 5);
       // d1 leads with 400 pts; d2 is a distant 2nd with 50 pts
-      (getSeasonResults as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([
+      await setStandings([
         makeSeasonResult("d1", "400"),
         makeSeasonResult("d2", "50"),
         makeSeasonResult("d3", "40"),
@@ -175,7 +252,7 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
         makeSeasonResult("d5", "20"),
       ]);
       // Futures odds heavily favour d2 (pretend markets disagree)
-      (getAllParticipantEVsForSeason as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([
+      await setOdds([
         makeEv("d1", 5000),  // very long shot per futures
         makeEv("d2", -500),  // heavy favourite per futures
       ]);
@@ -192,11 +269,7 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
 
     it("falls back to odds for all drivers when no standings data exists", async () => {
       // totalCurrentPoints = 0 → standings signal disabled, odds take over
-      const { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } = await import("~/models/participant-expected-value");
-      (getAllParticipantEVsForSeason as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([
-        makeEv("d1", -500),
-        makeEv("d2", 1000),
-      ]);
+      await setOdds([makeEv("d1", -500), makeEv("d2", 1000)]);
       const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
       const fav = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "d1");
       const longShot = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "d2");
@@ -208,27 +281,17 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
     });
 
     it("a driver with 0 points mid-season is not penalized beyond their odds weight", async () => {
-      // Use 2 completed / 20 remaining → early season, standings gap is small
-      const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
-      db = mockDb([
-        ...Array.from({ length: 2 }, () => makeEvent(true)),
-        ...Array.from({ length: 20 }, () => makeEvent(false)),
-      ]);
-      (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(db);
-
-      const { getSeasonResults } = await import("~/models/participant-season-result");
+      // Early season → standings gap is small
+      await setRaceCounts(2, 20);
       // d1-d4 have a modest lead; d5 is absent (0 pts, new entry)
-      (getSeasonResults as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([
+      await setStandings([
         makeSeasonResult("d1", "10"),
         makeSeasonResult("d2", "8"),
         makeSeasonResult("d3", "6"),
         makeSeasonResult("d4", "4"),
         // d5 intentionally absent → falls back to odds weight
       ]);
-      const { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } = await import("~/models/participant-expected-value");
-      (getAllParticipantEVsForSeason as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([
-        makeEv("d5", -500), // strong odds favourite despite 0 pts
-      ]);
+      await setOdds([makeEv("d5", -500)]); // strong odds favourite despite 0 pts
 
       const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
       // d5 should win championships at a non-trivial rate given their strong odds weight
@@ -240,9 +303,8 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
 
     it("emits a warning when participants are missing from standings", async () => {
       const warnSpy = vi.spyOn(console, "warn").mockImplementation(() => {});
-      const { getSeasonResults } = await import("~/models/participant-season-result");
       // Only 3 of 5 drivers have standings rows
-      (getSeasonResults as unknown as MockInstance).mockResolvedValue([
+      await setStandings([
         makeSeasonResult("d1", "100"),
         makeSeasonResult("d2", "80"),
         makeSeasonResult("d3", "60"),
@@ -253,19 +315,97 @@ describe("AutoRacingSimulator", () => {
       );
       warnSpy.mockRestore();
     });
+  });
 
-    it("schedule_event entries are excluded from race counts", async () => {
-      const { database } = await import("~/database/context");
-      // 5 real races + 3 schedule_events (should be ignored)
-      db = mockDb([
-        ...Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => makeEvent(true)),
-        ...Array.from({ length: 3 }, () => makeEvent(false, "schedule_event")),
-        makeEvent(false), // 1 real remaining
-      ]);
-      (database as unknown as MockInstance).mockReturnValue(db);
-      // Should not throw and should use seasonProgress = 5/6
-      const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1").simulate("s1");
-      expect(results).toHaveLength(5);
+  describe("IndyCar regression: near-clinched championship leader", () => {
+    // The reported bug. A 121-point lead with 2 races left is arithmetically
+    // unassailable (max 100 available, and the leader banks at least 10), but
+    // the simulator skipped `schedule_event` rows, saw zero remaining races,
+    // took the pre-season branch and echoed stale futures odds at ~55%.
+    const POINTS = [
+      601, 480, 446, 420, 398, 372, 350, 331, 315, 300, 288, 270, 255, 240,
+      228, 215, 200, 188, 175, 160, 148, 135, 120, 105, 90, 70, 55,
+    ];
+    const ODDS = [
+      -300, 450, 700, 1200, 1800, 2500, 4000, 5000, 6000, 8000, 10000, 12000,
+      15000, 20000, 25000, 30000, 40000, 50000, 50000, 50000, 50000, 50000,
+      50000, 50000, 50000, 50000, 50000,
+    ];
+    const FIELD = POINTS.map((_, i) => ({ id: `driver${i}` }));
+
+    beforeEach(async () => {
+      await useDrivers(FIELD);
+      await setStandings(FIELD.map((d, i) => makeSeasonResult(d.id, String(POINTS[i]))));
+      await setOdds(FIELD.map((d, i) => makeEv(d.id, ODDS[i])));
+    });
+
+    it("gives the leader ~100% with 2 of 17 races left", async () => {
+      await setRaceCounts(15, 2);
+      const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS, "indycar").simulate("s1", {
+        iterations: 2000,
+      });
+      const leader = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "driver0");
+      expect(leader).toBeDefined();
+      if (!leader) return;
+      expect(leader.probabilities.probFirst).toBeGreaterThan(0.99);
+    });
+
+    it("without a calendar it can only echo the stale odds — the shape of the bug", async () => {
+      const warnSpy = vi.spyOn(console, "warn").mockImplementation(() => {});
+      await setRaceCounts(0, 0);
+      const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS, "indycar").simulate("s1", {
+        iterations: 2000,
+      });
+      const leader = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "driver0");
+      expect(leader).toBeDefined();
+      if (!leader) return;
+      // Nowhere near the truth, which is exactly why the no-calendar warning
+      // above exists. Power devig keeps the -300 favourite well clear of the
+      // 55% that proportional devig produced, but odds alone cannot see a
+      // 121-point lead.
+      expect(leader.probabilities.probFirst).toBeLessThan(0.9);
+      expect(warnSpy).toHaveBeenCalledWith(
+        expect.stringContaining("championship points but no race calendar")
+      );
+      warnSpy.mockRestore();
+    });
+
+    it("still gives the leader a commanding lead with 5 races left", async () => {
+      await setRaceCounts(12, 5);
+      const results = await new AutoRacingSimulator(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS, "indycar").simulate("s1", {
+        iterations: 2000,
+      });
+      const leader = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "driver0");
+      expect(leader).toBeDefined();
+      if (!leader) return;
+      expect(leader.probabilities.probFirst).toBeGreaterThan(0.9);
     });
   });
 });
+
+describe("race points tables", () => {
+  it("IndyCar pays 50 for a win and scores down to P26", () => {
+    expect(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS[1]).toBe(50);
+    expect(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS[2]).toBe(40);
+    expect(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS[25]).toBe(5);
+    expect(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS[26]).toBe(5);
+    expect(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS[27]).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+
+  it("F1 pays 25 for a win and scores down to P10", () => {
+    expect(F1_RACE_POINTS[1]).toBe(25);
+    expect(F1_RACE_POINTS[10]).toBe(1);
+    expect(F1_RACE_POINTS[11]).toBeUndefined();
+  });
+
+  it("both tables decrease monotonically so the points loop never truncates early", () => {
+    for (const table of [F1_RACE_POINTS, INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS]) {
+      const positions = Object.keys(table).map(Number).toSorted((a, b) => a - b);
+      // Contiguous from P1, no gaps — the award loop breaks at the first 0.
+      positions.forEach((pos, i) => expect(pos).toBe(i + 1));
+      for (let i = 1; i < positions.length; i++) {
+        expect(table[positions[i]]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(table[positions[i - 1]]);
+      }
+    }
+  });
+});

app/services/simulations/auto-racing-simulator.ts

@@ -7,16 +7,17 @@
  *
  * Algorithm:
  *   1. Load participants + current championship points from DB
- *   2. Count remaining races (incomplete non-schedule scoring events)
+ *   2. Count completed/remaining races (see `countSeasonRaces`)
  *   3. Convert sourceOdds → vig-removed probability weights
- *   4. Two simulation paths:
- *      a. remainingRaces === 0 (pre-season): pure weighted draws from odds
- *      b. remainingRaces > 0 (in-season): simulate each remaining race,
- *         starting from real standings, awarding series-specific points per finish
+ *   4. Three paths:
+ *      a. season complete (no races left, some run): standings are the answer
+ *      b. pre-season (no races at all yet): pure weighted draws from odds
+ *      c. in-season: simulate each remaining race, starting from real standings,
+ *         awarding series-specific points per finish
  *   5. Convert finish counts → probability distributions + normalize columns
  *
  * Notes:
- *   - Drivers without odds fall back to uniform probability (1/N)
+ *   - Drivers without odds are floored at the bottom of the priced market
  *   - PARTICIPANT_VOLATILITY and RACE_NOISE only apply to the in-season path
  */
 
@@ -25,6 +26,8 @@ import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
 import { getAllParticipantEVsForSeason } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
 import { getSeasonResults } from "~/models/participant-season-result";
+import { countSeasonRaces } from "~/models/season-races";
+import { devigPower } from "~/services/probability-engine";
 import type { Simulator, SimulationResult } from "./types";
 import { positiveConfigNumber } from "./config-access";
 
@@ -126,20 +129,24 @@ export class AutoRacingSimulator implements Simulator {
     const currentPointsMap = new Map<string, number>(
       seasonResults.map((r) => [r.participant.id, parseFloat(r.currentPoints ?? "0")])
     );
+    const totalCurrentPoints = [...currentPointsMap.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
 
-    // 3. Count remaining and completed races in a single pass (exclude schedule_event entries)
-    const allEvents = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
-      where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
-    });
-    let remainingRaces = 0;
-    let completedRaces = 0;
-    for (const e of allEvents) {
-      if (e.eventType === "schedule_event") continue;
-      if (e.isComplete) completedRaces++;
-      else remainingRaces++;
+    // 3. Count remaining and completed races
+    const { completed: completedRaces, remaining: remainingRaces, total: totalRaces } =
+      await countSeasonRaces(sportsSeasonId);
+
+    // A season with championship points but no calendar cannot be simulated
+    // forward — it silently degrades into "whatever the futures odds said",
+    // which ignores a runaway leader's points lead entirely.
+    if (totalRaces === 0 && totalCurrentPoints > 0) {
+      // eslint-disable-next-line no-console
+      console.warn(
+        `[AutoRacingSimulator] Season ${sportsSeasonId} has championship points but no race calendar — ` +
+          `add the schedule on the admin events page. Falling back to futures odds, which ignores the standings.`
+      );
     }
+
     // 0.0 = pre-season, 1.0 = all races done
-    const totalRaces = completedRaces + remainingRaces;
     const seasonProgress = totalRaces > 0 ? completedRaces / totalRaces : 0;
 
     // 4. Load EV data for championship win probabilities
@@ -149,22 +156,41 @@ export class AutoRacingSimulator implements Simulator {
     const ids = participants.map((p) => p.id);
 
     // 5. Build raw implied championship win probabilities from odds.
-    // americanToImpliedProb includes vig (sum > 1.0), so we normalize to sum = 1.0
-    // before using as weights. This is standard "vig removal" and ensures a driver
-    // with -200 odds (~66.7% implied) gets ~55% weight when the total vig is ~1.2.
+    // americanToImpliedProb includes vig (the field sums well over 1.0), so the
+    // priced field is devigged with a power transform rather than proportional
+    // division — see devigPower. Only drivers who actually have odds go into the
+    // devig: mixing in a 1/N placeholder for unpriced drivers would both inflate
+    // the book sum (distorting the solved exponent) and rate an unpriced driver
+    // above most of the real longshots.
     const fallbackProb = 1 / participants.length;
-    const rawProbs = new Map<string, number>();
+    const pricedIds: string[] = [];
+    const pricedImplied: number[] = [];
 
     for (const p of participants) {
-      const ev = evMap.get(p.id);
-      rawProbs.set(p.id, ev !== undefined && ev.sourceOdds !== null && ev.sourceOdds !== undefined ? americanToImpliedProb(ev.sourceOdds) : fallbackProb);
+      const odds = evMap.get(p.id)?.sourceOdds;
+      if (odds !== null && odds !== undefined) {
+        pricedIds.push(p.id);
+        pricedImplied.push(americanToImpliedProb(odds));
+      }
     }
 
-    // Normalize to remove vig
+    const rawProbs = new Map<string, number>();
+    if (pricedIds.length === 0) {
+      for (const p of participants) rawProbs.set(p.id, fallbackProb);
+    } else {
+      const devigged = devigPower(pricedImplied);
+      pricedIds.forEach((id, i) => rawProbs.set(id, devigged[i]));
+
+      // Unpriced drivers sit at the bottom of the market, then renormalize.
+      const marketFloor = Math.min(...devigged);
+      for (const p of participants) {
+        if (!rawProbs.has(p.id)) rawProbs.set(p.id, marketFloor);
+      }
       const rawSum = [...rawProbs.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
       for (const [id, prob] of rawProbs) {
         rawProbs.set(id, prob / rawSum);
       }
+    }
 
     // 6. Optionally smooth toward the mean (no-op when UNCERTAINTY_FACTOR = 0)
     const baseProbs = new Map<string, number>();
@@ -184,9 +210,30 @@ export class AutoRacingSimulator implements Simulator {
       rankCounts.set(id, Array.from({ length: 8 }, () => 0));
     }
 
-    if (remainingRaces === 0) {
+    // Every race has run and at least one result is in: the championship is
+    // decided, so the standings *are* the answer — there is nothing to simulate.
+    // getSeasonResults already sorts by currentPosition (nulls last), then points
+    // descending.
+    const settledOrder =
+      remainingRaces === 0 && completedRaces > 0
+        ? seasonResults.map((r) => r.participant.id).filter((id) => rankCounts.has(id))
+        : [];
+
+    if (settledOrder.length > 0) {
+      for (let rank = 0; rank < Math.min(8, settledOrder.length); rank++) {
+        const counts = rankCounts.get(settledOrder[rank]);
+        if (counts) counts[rank] = numSimulations;
+      }
+    } else if (remainingRaces === 0) {
       // Pre-season: no races to simulate, derive placement probabilities
       // from sourceOdds via pure weighted draws.
+      if (completedRaces > 0) {
+        // eslint-disable-next-line no-console
+        console.warn(
+          `[AutoRacingSimulator] Season ${sportsSeasonId} has no races left but no standings rows — ` +
+            `falling back to futures odds instead of the final championship order.`
+        );
+      }
       const weights = ids.map((id) => baseProbs.get(id) ?? fallbackProb);
       for (let sim = 0; sim < numSimulations; sim++) {
         const finishOrder = weightedDrawWithoutReplacement(ids, weights);
@@ -214,7 +261,6 @@ export class AutoRacingSimulator implements Simulator {
       // - Mid/late season: standings dominate, reducing the distortion from
       //   championship futures (which penalize 2nd-place drivers whose odds of
       //   *winning* the title are weak, even though they'll likely finish top 3)
-      const totalCurrentPoints = [...currentPointsMap.values()].reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
       const blendedProbs = new Map<string, number>();
       for (const id of ids) {
         const oddsW = baseProbs.get(id) ?? fallbackProb;

app/services/simulations/race-points.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+/**
+ * Championship points tables for auto racing series.
+ *
+ * Stable series rules, not refreshable season data, so they live in code (see
+ * the hardcoding rules in docs/agents/simulators.md). Kept out of `registry.ts`
+ * so tests and callers can read a table without pulling in every simulator —
+ * importing the registry first also trips the manifest/registry import cycle.
+ *
+ * Each table must be contiguous from P1 and monotonically decreasing: the
+ * simulator's award loop stops at the first unscored position.
+ */
+
+/** F1 points: positions 1–10. */
+export const F1_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
+  1: 25, 2: 18, 3: 15, 4: 12, 5: 10, 6: 8, 7: 6, 8: 4, 9: 2, 10: 1,
+};
+
+/** IndyCar standard race points: positions 1–26. */
+export const INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
+  1: 50, 2: 40, 3: 35, 4: 32, 5: 30, 6: 28, 7: 26, 8: 24, 9: 22, 10: 20,
+  11: 19, 12: 18, 13: 17, 14: 16, 15: 15, 16: 14, 17: 13, 18: 12, 19: 11, 20: 10,
+  21: 9, 22: 8, 23: 7, 24: 6, 25: 5, 26: 5,
+};

app/services/simulations/registry.ts

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@
 import type { Simulator } from "./types";
 import { BracketSimulator } from "./bracket-simulator";
 import { AutoRacingSimulator } from "./auto-racing-simulator";
+import { F1_RACE_POINTS, INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS } from "./race-points";
 import { GolfSimulator } from "./golf-simulator";
 import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator";
 import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator";
@@ -62,20 +63,6 @@ export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
 
 export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number];
 
-// ─── Race points tables ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-/** F1 points: positions 1–10. */
-const F1_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
-  1: 25, 2: 18, 3: 15, 4: 12, 5: 10, 6: 8, 7: 6, 8: 4, 9: 2, 10: 1,
-};
-
-/** IndyCar standard race points: positions 1–26. */
-const INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS: Record<number, number> = {
-  1: 50, 2: 40, 3: 35, 4: 32, 5: 30, 6: 28, 7: 26, 8: 24, 9: 22, 10: 20,
-  11: 19, 12: 18, 13: 17, 14: 16, 15: 15, 16: 14, 17: 13, 18: 12, 19: 11, 20: 10,
-  21: 9, 22: 8, 23: 7, 24: 6, 25: 5, 26: 5,
-};
-
 export interface SimulatorInfo {
   name: string;
   description: string;