app/lib/bracket-templates.ts

@@ -31,6 +31,20 @@ export interface BracketRound {
    * Has no effect on scoring rounds, which use RoundScoringConfig.winnerFloor instead.
    */
   nonScoringWinnerFloor?: number | null;
+  /**
+   * Floor position every team is guaranteed simply by being *seeded into* this
+   * round when the bracket is generated — before a single match is played.
+   *
+   * Omit (the default) for rounds where entering guarantees nothing: a team that
+   * loses its first match earns 0. Set a number when the bracket structure locks
+   * in a scoring tier on entry — e.g. afl_10's Qualifying Finals, where the loser
+   * still gets a Semi-Final and so cannot finish worse than the 5th-6th tier.
+   *
+   * Only teams actually assigned to a match slot at generation receive this floor;
+   * TBD slots filled later by advancing winners get their floor from the round they
+   * won (nonScoringWinnerFloor / RoundScoringConfig.winnerFloor) instead.
+   */
+  entryFloor?: number | null;
 }
 
 export interface GroupStageConfig {
@@ -707,18 +721,32 @@ export const AFL_10: BracketTemplate = {
       matchCount: 2,
       feedsInto: "Elimination Finals",
       isScoring: false, // Losers get 0 points (9th-10th)
+      // A Wildcard win only buys an Elimination Final; losing that is the 7th-8th
+      // tier, so the winner banks 7 — not the generic "entering a scoring round
+      // means top-8" default of 5, which would over-award them a 5th-6th floor.
+      nonScoringWinnerFloor: 7,
     },
     {
       name: "Qualifying Finals",
       matchCount: 2,
       feedsInto: "Preliminary Finals", // Winners get bye
       isScoring: false, // Losers get second chance (go to Semi-Finals)
+      // Seeds 1-4 have the double chance from the moment the bracket is drawn:
+      // lose the QF, lose the Semi-Final, and you still finish in the 5th-6th tier.
+      entryFloor: 5,
+      // Winning the QF is a bye straight to a Preliminary Final; losing that is the
+      // 3rd-4th tier, so the winner's floor is 3 rather than the generic default of 5.
+      nonScoringWinnerFloor: 3,
     },
     {
       name: "Elimination Finals",
       matchCount: 2,
       feedsInto: "Semi-Finals",
       isScoring: true, // Losers share 7th-8th
+      // Seeds 5-6 are seeded straight into this round, so the 7th-8th tier is
+      // locked in for them at generation. (The other slot is a TBD Wildcard winner,
+      // who banks the same floor by winning the Wildcard Round.)
+      entryFloor: 7,
     },
     {
       name: "Semi-Finals",

app/models/__tests__/afl-finals.test.ts

@@ -7,7 +7,8 @@
 
 import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest";
 import { AFL_10, getScoringRoundType } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
-import { calculateFantasyPoints, calculateAveragedPoints, type ScoringRules } from "../scoring-rules";
+import { calculateFantasyPoints, calculateAveragedPoints, calculateBracketPoints, type ScoringRules } from "../scoring-rules";
+import { getBracketEntryFloor } from "../scoring-calculator";
 
 const DEFAULT_SCORING: ScoringRules = {
   pointsFor1st: 100,
@@ -206,3 +207,69 @@ describe("AFL Finals System - Phase 3.3", () => {
     });
   });
 });
+
+describe("AFL guaranteed floors from seeding (afl_10)", () => {
+  const byName = (name: string) => AFL_10.rounds.find((r) => r.name === name);
+
+  describe("getBracketEntryFloor — banked the moment the bracket is set", () => {
+    it("gives seeds 1-4 the 5th-6th tier: the double chance is locked in at seeding", () => {
+      // Worst case for a top-4 seed is lose the Qualifying Final, then lose the
+      // Semi-Final — which is the 5th-6th tier. They can never finish below it.
+      expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Qualifying Finals", "afl_10")).toBe(5);
+      expect(calculateBracketPoints(5, DEFAULT_SCORING, "afl_10")).toBe(25);
+    });
+
+    it("gives seeds 5-6 the 7th-8th tier: they are seeded straight into a scoring round", () => {
+      expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Elimination Finals", "afl_10")).toBe(7);
+      expect(calculateBracketPoints(7, DEFAULT_SCORING, "afl_10")).toBe(15);
+    });
+
+    it("gives seeds 7-10 nothing: a Wildcard loss is worth 0", () => {
+      expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Wildcard Round", "afl_10")).toBeNull();
+    });
+
+    it("returns null when the template is unknown or missing", () => {
+      expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Qualifying Finals", null)).toBeNull();
+      expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Qualifying Finals", "not_a_template")).toBeNull();
+    });
+
+    it("does not hand out floors for TBD rounds nobody is seeded into yet", () => {
+      // These rounds do carry a loser tier, but every slot is empty at generation,
+      // so applyBracketEntryFloors has no participant to write against.
+      expect(byName("Semi-Finals")?.entryFloor).toBeUndefined();
+      expect(byName("Preliminary Finals")?.entryFloor).toBeUndefined();
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("nonScoringWinnerFloor — the generic top-8 default is wrong for both AFL non-scoring rounds", () => {
+    it("Qualifying Finals winners bank 3, not 5 — the bye means a Prelim loss is 3rd-4th", () => {
+      expect(byName("Qualifying Finals")?.nonScoringWinnerFloor).toBe(3);
+    });
+
+    it("Wildcard winners bank 7, not 5 — winning only buys an Elimination Final", () => {
+      expect(byName("Wildcard Round")?.nonScoringWinnerFloor).toBe(7);
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("floors only ever improve along every AFL path", () => {
+    const pts = (position: number) => calculateBracketPoints(position, DEFAULT_SCORING, "afl_10");
+
+    it("top-4 seed: entry 5 → QF win 3 → PF win 2 → GF win 1", () => {
+      expect(pts(5)).toBeLessThan(pts(3));
+      expect(pts(3)).toBeLessThan(pts(2));
+      expect(pts(2)).toBeLessThan(pts(1));
+    });
+
+    it("top-4 seed losing the QF holds the entry floor, then finalizes at 5th-6th", () => {
+      // QF losers advance to the Semi-Final, so nothing is written at the QF —
+      // the entry floor of 5 carries them until the Semi-Final resolves.
+      const entryFloor = getBracketEntryFloor("Qualifying Finals", "afl_10");
+      expect(entryFloor).toBe(5);
+      expect(pts(entryFloor ?? 0)).toBe(25); // unchanged by the loss
+    });
+
+    it("seeds 5-6 and Wildcard winners share a 7th-8th floor, below the top-4's", () => {
+      expect(pts(7)).toBeLessThan(pts(5));
+    });
+  });
+});

app/models/__tests__/bracket-entry-floors.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,243 @@
+/**
+ * Entry-floor scoring: points a bracket guarantees at seeding time.
+ *
+ * Some seedings lock in a scoring tier before a single match is played. The AFL
+ * finals are the clearest case: a top-4 seed has the double chance, so losing the
+ * Qualifying Final still leaves them a Semi-Final, and losing that is the 5th-6th
+ * tier. Those teams must not sit on 0 fantasy points until their first game.
+ */
+
+import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach } from "vitest";
+
+interface MatchRow {
+  round: string;
+  participant1Id: string | null;
+  participant2Id: string | null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Minimal db mock. applyBracketEntryFloors calls, in order:
+ *   1. db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst  → the event (for template + sportsSeasonId)
+ *   2. db.query.playoffMatches.findMany  → the bracket's match slots
+ *   3. upsertParticipantResult per floored participant → findFirst + insert/update
+ */
+function makeDb(
+  event: { bracketTemplateId: string | null; sportsSeasonId: string } | null,
+  matches: MatchRow[],
+  existingByParticipant: Record<string, { id: string; finalPosition: number; isPartialScore: boolean }> = {}
+) {
+  const existingRows = Object.entries(existingByParticipant).map(([participantId, row]) => ({
+    participantId,
+    finalPosition: row.finalPosition,
+  }));
+  const insertedRows: Array<Record<string, unknown>> = [];
+  const updatedRows: Array<Record<string, unknown>> = [];
+
+  return {
+    db: {
+      insert: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({
+        values: vi.fn().mockImplementation((values: Record<string, unknown>) => {
+          insertedRows.push(values);
+          return Promise.resolve();
+        }),
+      }),
+      update: vi.fn().mockReturnValue({
+        set: vi.fn().mockImplementation((values: Record<string, unknown>) => {
+          updatedRows.push(values);
+          return { where: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(undefined) };
+        }),
+      }),
+      query: {
+        scoringEvents: { findFirst: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(event) },
+        playoffMatches: { findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(matches) },
+        seasonParticipantResults: {
+          // The pre-pass that stops a floor from downgrading an existing placement.
+          findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(existingRows),
+          findFirst: vi.fn().mockImplementation((args: { where?: unknown }) => {
+            // Resolve by scanning the seeded map — the mock has no real query engine,
+            // so tests that need an existing row use a single-participant bracket.
+            void args;
+            const only = Object.values(existingByParticipant)[0];
+            return Promise.resolve(only);
+          }),
+        },
+      },
+    } as never,
+    insertedRows,
+    updatedRows,
+  };
+}
+
+import { applyBracketEntryFloors, getBracketEntryFloor } from "../scoring-calculator";
+
+/** The AFL bracket exactly as generateAFL10Bracket writes it: later rounds are TBD. */
+const AFL_BRACKET: MatchRow[] = [
+  { round: "Wildcard Round", participant1Id: "seed7", participant2Id: "seed10" },
+  { round: "Wildcard Round", participant1Id: "seed8", participant2Id: "seed9" },
+  { round: "Qualifying Finals", participant1Id: "seed1", participant2Id: "seed4" },
+  { round: "Qualifying Finals", participant1Id: "seed2", participant2Id: "seed3" },
+  { round: "Elimination Finals", participant1Id: "seed5", participant2Id: null },
+  { round: "Elimination Finals", participant1Id: "seed6", participant2Id: null },
+  { round: "Semi-Finals", participant1Id: null, participant2Id: null },
+  { round: "Semi-Finals", participant1Id: null, participant2Id: null },
+  { round: "Preliminary Finals", participant1Id: null, participant2Id: null },
+  { round: "Preliminary Finals", participant1Id: null, participant2Id: null },
+  { round: "Grand Final", participant1Id: null, participant2Id: null },
+];
+
+describe("applyBracketEntryFloors", () => {
+  beforeEach(() => {
+    vi.clearAllMocks();
+  });
+
+  describe("afl_10", () => {
+    it("banks 5 for the top 4 and 7 for seeds 5-6, and nothing for the wildcard teams", async () => {
+      const { db, insertedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        AFL_BRACKET
+      );
+
+      const applied = await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db);
+
+      expect(applied).toBe(6);
+      const floors = Object.fromEntries(
+        insertedRows.map((r) => [r.participantId as string, r.finalPosition as number])
+      );
+      expect(floors).toEqual({
+        seed1: 5, seed2: 5, seed3: 5, seed4: 5, // double chance → 5th-6th tier
+        seed5: 7, seed6: 7,                     // seeded into the Elimination Finals
+      });
+      // Seeds 7-10 lose the Wildcard Round for 0, so nothing is guaranteed yet.
+      expect(floors).not.toHaveProperty("seed7");
+      expect(floors).not.toHaveProperty("seed10");
+    });
+
+    it("writes every floor as provisional so real results supersede it", async () => {
+      const { db, insertedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        AFL_BRACKET
+      );
+
+      await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db);
+
+      expect(insertedRows.every((r) => r.isPartialScore === true)).toBe(true);
+      expect(insertedRows.every((r) => r.sportsSeasonId === "ss-1")).toBe(true);
+    });
+
+    it("leaves TBD slots alone — a Semi-Final nobody has reached grants nothing", async () => {
+      const { db, insertedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        [{ round: "Semi-Finals", participant1Id: null, participant2Id: null }]
+      );
+
+      expect(await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db)).toBe(0);
+      expect(insertedRows).toHaveLength(0);
+    });
+
+    it("never downgrades a better placement — a finalist regenerating stays a finalist", async () => {
+      // clear-bracket → generate-bracket mid-tournament must not knock a team sitting
+      // on a 2nd-place floor back down to their 5th-6th seeding floor.
+      const { db, insertedRows, updatedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        [{ round: "Qualifying Finals", participant1Id: "seed1", participant2Id: null }],
+        { seed1: { id: "row-1", finalPosition: 2, isPartialScore: true } }
+      );
+
+      expect(await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db)).toBe(0);
+      expect(insertedRows).toHaveLength(0);
+      expect(updatedRows).toHaveLength(0);
+    });
+
+    it("treats position 0 as eliminated, not as a better placement", async () => {
+      // A 0 means "missed the bracket". Re-seeding a team into the bracket must still
+      // give them their floor rather than reading 0 as an unbeatable placement.
+      const { db, updatedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        [{ round: "Qualifying Finals", participant1Id: "seed1", participant2Id: null }],
+        { seed1: { id: "row-1", finalPosition: 0, isPartialScore: true } }
+      );
+
+      expect(await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db)).toBe(1);
+      expect(updatedRows).toHaveLength(1);
+      expect(updatedRows[0]).toMatchObject({ finalPosition: 5, isPartialScore: true });
+    });
+
+    it("does not un-finalize a participant who already has a real result", async () => {
+      // upsertParticipantResult's never-un-finalize guard: a finalized row must not be
+      // dragged back to a provisional floor when the bracket is regenerated.
+      const { db, insertedRows, updatedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        [{ round: "Qualifying Finals", participant1Id: "seed1", participant2Id: null }],
+        { seed1: { id: "row-1", finalPosition: 1, isPartialScore: false } }
+      );
+
+      expect(await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db)).toBe(0);
+      expect(insertedRows).toHaveLength(0);
+      expect(updatedRows).toHaveLength(0);
+    });
+  });
+
+  describe("other brackets", () => {
+    it("is a no-op for an event with no bracket template", async () => {
+      const { db, insertedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: null, sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        AFL_BRACKET
+      );
+
+      expect(await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db)).toBe(0);
+      expect(insertedRows).toHaveLength(0);
+    });
+
+    it("is a no-op when the event does not exist", async () => {
+      const { db } = makeDb(null, AFL_BRACKET);
+      expect(await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db)).toBe(0);
+    });
+
+    it("grants nothing to an NBA bracket: every seeded round is non-scoring", async () => {
+      const { db, insertedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: "nba_20", sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        [
+          { round: "Play-In Round 1", participant1Id: "e7", participant2Id: "e8" },
+          { round: "First Round", participant1Id: "e1", participant2Id: null },
+        ]
+      );
+
+      expect(await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db)).toBe(0);
+      expect(insertedRows).toHaveLength(0);
+    });
+
+    it("grants the T5-8 tier to a simple_8 field: every entrant is already in a scoring round", async () => {
+      const { db, insertedRows } = makeDb(
+        { bracketTemplateId: "simple_8", sportsSeasonId: "ss-1" },
+        [{ round: "Quarterfinals", participant1Id: "a", participant2Id: "b" }]
+      );
+
+      expect(await applyBracketEntryFloors("event-1", db)).toBe(2);
+      expect(insertedRows.map((r) => r.finalPosition)).toEqual([5, 5]);
+    });
+  });
+});
+
+describe("getBracketEntryFloor", () => {
+  it("prefers a round's explicit entryFloor over its loser position", () => {
+    // Qualifying Finals is non-scoring, so only the explicit entryFloor makes it pay.
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Qualifying Finals", "afl_10")).toBe(5);
+  });
+
+  it("falls back to a scoring round's own loser position", () => {
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Quarterfinals", "simple_8")).toBe(5);
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Semifinals", "simple_8")).toBe(3);
+  });
+
+  it("returns null for non-scoring rounds with no explicit floor", () => {
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Wildcard Round", "afl_10")).toBeNull();
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("First Round", "nba_20")).toBeNull();
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Round of 64", "ncaa_68")).toBeNull();
+  });
+
+  it("returns null for unknown rounds and templates", () => {
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Not A Round", "afl_10")).toBeNull();
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Quarterfinals", "not_a_template")).toBeNull();
+    expect(getBracketEntryFloor("Quarterfinals", null)).toBeNull();
+  });
+});

app/models/__tests__/process-match-result.test.ts

@@ -190,12 +190,26 @@ describe("processMatchResult", () => {
       });
     });
 
-    it("AFL Wildcard Round: loser=0, winner gets T5 floor (feeds into Elimination Finals = scoring)", async () => {
+    it("AFL Wildcard Round: loser=0, winner gets T7 floor (a Wildcard win only buys an Elimination Final)", async () => {
+      // The generic "entering a scoring round ⇒ top-8" default would bank 5 here,
+      // over-awarding the 5th-6th tier to a team whose next loss is the 7th-8th tier.
       const { db, insertedRows } = makeDb();
       await processMatchResult({ ...BASE, bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", round: "Wildcard Round", isScoring: false }, db);
       expect(insertedRows).toHaveLength(2);
       expect(insertedRows[0]).toMatchObject({ participantId: "loser-1", finalPosition: 0, isPartialScore: false });
-      expect(insertedRows[1]).toMatchObject({ participantId: "winner-1", finalPosition: 5, isPartialScore: true });
+      expect(insertedRows[1]).toMatchObject({ participantId: "winner-1", finalPosition: 7, isPartialScore: true });
+    });
+
+    it("AFL Qualifying Finals: winner gets T3 floor (bye to a Preliminary Final), loser holds their entry floor", async () => {
+      const { db, insertedRows } = makeDb();
+      await processMatchResult(
+        { ...BASE, bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", round: "Qualifying Finals", isScoring: false, loserAdvances: true },
+        db
+      );
+      // Only the winner is written: the loser still has a Semi-Final, so their
+      // seeding-derived floor of 5 stands untouched.
+      expect(insertedRows).toHaveLength(1);
+      expect(insertedRows[0]).toMatchObject({ participantId: "winner-1", finalPosition: 3, isPartialScore: true });
     });
 
     describe("NBA Play-In loserAdvances=true (7v8 game)", () => {

app/models/scoring-calculator.ts

@@ -174,6 +174,110 @@ function nonScoringWinnerFloorFor(
   return nextRound?.isScoring === true ? 5 : null;
 }
 
+/**
+ * Returns the floor position a participant banks purely by being *seeded into* the
+ * given round when the bracket is generated, or null when entry guarantees nothing.
+ *
+ * Two sources, in order:
+ *   1. The template round's explicit `entryFloor` (e.g. afl_10 "Qualifying Finals" → 5:
+ *      seeds 1-4 have the double chance, so the 5th-6th tier is locked in on day one).
+ *   2. Otherwise a scoring round's own loser position — being drawn into a round whose
+ *      losers score means the worst case is that round's loser tier.
+ *
+ * Non-scoring rounds with no explicit `entryFloor` return null: losing your first game
+ * there is worth 0, so there is nothing to bank yet.
+ */
+export function getBracketEntryFloor(
+  round: string,
+  bracketTemplateId: string | null | undefined
+): number | null {
+  const template = bracketTemplateId ? BRACKET_TEMPLATES[bracketTemplateId] : undefined;
+  const templateRound = template?.rounds.find((r) => r.name === round);
+  if (templateRound?.entryFloor !== undefined) return templateRound.entryFloor;
+  if (!templateRound?.isScoring) return null;
+  return getRoundConfig(round, bracketTemplateId)?.loserPosition ?? null;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Write the provisional entry floors for a freshly generated (or reprocessed) bracket.
+ *
+ * A seeded bracket can guarantee points before anyone plays: an AFL top-4 seed cannot
+ * finish below the 5th-6th tier because a Qualifying Final loss still leaves them a
+ * Semi-Final. Without this, those teams sit on 0 fantasy points until their first game
+ * resolves, which understates every roster holding them.
+ *
+ * Only participants already assigned to a match slot are touched, and every write is
+ * provisional (isPartialScore=true) so it is superseded the moment a real result lands.
+ *
+ * Floors never go backwards. A participant already sitting on an equal or better
+ * placement is skipped, so regenerating a bracket mid-tournament (clear-bracket →
+ * generate-bracket) cannot knock a finalist back down to their seeding floor. Combined
+ * with upsertParticipantResult's never-un-finalize guard, re-running over the same
+ * bracket is a no-op.
+ *
+ * Returns the number of participants whose floor this call actually raised.
+ */
+export async function applyBracketEntryFloors(
+  eventId: string,
+  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
+): Promise<number> {
+  const db = providedDb || database();
+
+  const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
+    where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.id, eventId),
+  });
+  if (!event?.bracketTemplateId) return 0;
+
+  const matches = await db.query.playoffMatches.findMany({
+    where: eq(schema.playoffMatches.scoringEventId, eventId),
+  });
+
+  // Highest (best) floor wins when a participant somehow appears in more than one
+  // round's slots — a lower position number is a better guarantee.
+  const floorByParticipant = new Map<string, number>();
+  for (const match of matches) {
+    const floor = getBracketEntryFloor(match.round, event.bracketTemplateId);
+    if (floor === null) continue;
+    for (const participantId of [match.participant1Id, match.participant2Id]) {
+      if (!participantId) continue;
+      const existing = floorByParticipant.get(participantId);
+      if (existing === undefined || floor < existing) {
+        floorByParticipant.set(participantId, floor);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+
+  // Existing placements, so a floor is only ever written when it improves on what
+  // the participant already has. Position 0 means eliminated / missed the bracket —
+  // not a better placement — so it never blocks a floor.
+  const existingRows = await db.query.seasonParticipantResults.findMany({
+    where: eq(schema.seasonParticipantResults.sportsSeasonId, event.sportsSeasonId),
+    columns: { participantId: true, finalPosition: true },
+  });
+  const existingPosition = new Map(
+    existingRows
+      .filter((r) => r.finalPosition !== null && r.finalPosition > 0)
+      .map((r) => [r.participantId, r.finalPosition as number])
+  );
+
+  let applied = 0;
+  for (const [participantId, floor] of floorByParticipant) {
+    const current = existingPosition.get(participantId);
+    if (current !== undefined && current <= floor) continue; // already as good or better
+
+    const oldFloor = await upsertParticipantResult(
+      participantId,
+      event.sportsSeasonId,
+      floor,
+      db,
+      true // provisional: replaced as soon as the participant wins or is eliminated
+    );
+    if (oldFloor !== null) applied++;
+  }
+
+  return applied;
+}
+
 /**
  * Look up the scoring config for a given round name, applying any template-specific
  * overrides before falling back to the standard ROUND_CONFIG.

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.events.$eventId.bracket.server.ts

@@ -36,6 +36,7 @@ import {
   recalculateAffectedLeagues,
   recalculateStandings,
   autoCompleteRoundIfDone,
+  applyBracketEntryFloors,
 } from "~/models/scoring-calculator";
 import { updateProbabilitiesAfterResult } from "~/services/probability-updater";
 import { getBracketTemplate, ALL_16_SEEDS, type BracketRegion } from "~/lib/bracket-templates";
@@ -396,6 +397,24 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
     try {
       await generateBracketFromTemplate(params.eventId, templateId, participantIds, regionOverride);
 
+      // The template ID has to land on the event before entry floors can be derived
+      // (getBracketEntryFloor reads it), so persist it here rather than after the
+      // elimination pass below.
+      await updateScoringEvent(params.eventId, {
+        bracketTemplateId: templateId,
+        scoringStartsAtRound: template.scoringStartsAtRound,
+        bracketRegionConfig: regionOverride,
+      });
+
+      // Some seedings guarantee points before a ball is bounced — an AFL top-4 seed
+      // has the double chance, so the 5th-6th tier is locked in at generation. Bank
+      // those provisional floors now, ahead of the elimination announcement below so
+      // the standings it posts already reflect them.
+      const entryFloorCount = await applyBracketEntryFloors(params.eventId);
+      if (entryFloorCount > 0) {
+        logger.log(`[BracketGeneration] Applied entry floors to ${entryFloorCount} participant(s)`);
+      }
+
       // PHASE 5.3: Mark participants NOT in the bracket as eliminated (and announce).
       const event = await getScoringEventById(params.eventId);
       if (event) {
@@ -406,14 +425,18 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
           .map((p) => p.id);
         const eliminatedCount = await markEliminatedAndAnnounce(event, toEliminate);
         logger.log(`[BracketGeneration] Marked ${eliminatedCount} participants as eliminated`);
-      }
 
-      // Update the event to store the template ID, scoring start round, and region config
-      await updateScoringEvent(params.eventId, {
-        bracketTemplateId: templateId,
-        scoringStartsAtRound: template.scoringStartsAtRound,
-        bracketRegionConfig: regionOverride,
+        // markEliminatedAndAnnounce recalculates standings only when it actually
+        // eliminated somebody. When the bracket field is the whole season (nothing to
+        // eliminate) the entry floors above would never reach teamStandings.totalPoints,
+        // so recalculate here. skipDiscord: seeding floors are not a result to announce.
+        if (toEliminate.length === 0 && entryFloorCount > 0) {
+          await recalculateAffectedLeagues(event.sportsSeasonId, database(), {
+            eventName: event.name ?? undefined,
+            skipDiscord: true,
           });
+        }
+      }
 
       return { success: "Bracket generated successfully" };
     } catch (error) {
@@ -883,15 +906,28 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
         return { success: `${baseMessage} No mirror windows to sync.` };
       }
 
-      if (completed.length === 0) {
-        return { error: "No completed matches to reprocess" };
+      if (matches.length === 0) {
+        return { error: "No bracket to reprocess" };
       }
 
       // Delete ALL results for this sports season and rebuild from scratch.
       // Only deleting partial rows leaves stale finalized rows that block
       // the "never un-finalize" guard in upsertParticipantResult.
+      //
+      // seasonParticipantResults is keyed by sports season, not by event, so this
+      // wipes every event's placements in the season and only the replay below can
+      // rebuild them (the same hazard clear-bracket documents). With nothing to
+      // replay there is nothing to rebuild from, so skip it entirely: applying entry
+      // floors and re-marking eliminations below is additive and needs no wipe.
       const db = database();
+      if (completed.length > 0) {
         await deleteParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId(event.sportsSeasonId, db);
+      }
+
+      // Re-bank the seeding-derived floors the delete above wipes (e.g. the AFL
+      // top-4's 5th-6th tier). Done before the replay so real match results overwrite
+      // them; a bracket with no completed matches still gets its guaranteed points.
+      const entryFloorCount = await applyBracketEntryFloors(params.eventId, db);
 
       // Replay each completed match in bracket order (earlier rounds first).
       const template = event.bracketTemplateId ? getBracketTemplate(event.bracketTemplateId) : null;
@@ -952,7 +988,12 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
       // skipDiscord: reprocess-bracket is a data-correction tool, not a result announcement.
       await recalculateAffectedLeagues(event.sportsSeasonId, undefined, { skipDiscord: true });
 
-      return { success: `Reprocessed bracket: ${sortedMatches.length} match(es) replayed, ${eliminatedCount} non-bracket participant(s) eliminated` };
+      return {
+        success:
+          `Reprocessed bracket: ${sortedMatches.length} match(es) replayed, ` +
+          `${entryFloorCount} seeded participant(s) given their guaranteed entry floor, ` +
+          `${eliminatedCount} non-bracket participant(s) eliminated`,
+      };
     } catch (error) {
       logger.error("Error reprocessing bracket:", error);
       return {

app/services/__tests__/probability-updater.test.ts

@@ -266,5 +266,57 @@ describe("probability-updater", () => {
       expect(callArgs.probabilities.probSeventh).toBe(0);
       expect(callArgs.probabilities.probEighth).toBe(0);
     });
+
+    it("does NOT treat a provisional floor as finished — the team is still playing", async () => {
+      // An AFL top-4 seed banks a provisional 5th-6th floor at seeding. Pinning them
+      // to 100% at 5th would erase their championship odds before they have played.
+      vi.mocked(participantResultModel.findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId).mockResolvedValue([
+        {
+          id: "result-1",
+          participantId: "participant-1",
+          sportsSeasonId: "season-1",
+          finalPosition: 5,
+          isPartialScore: true,
+          qualifyingPoints: null,
+          notes: null,
+          createdAt: new Date(),
+          updatedAt: new Date(),
+          participant: null,
+        },
+      ] as never);
+
+      vi.mocked(participantEVModel.getAllParticipantEVsForSeason).mockResolvedValue([]);
+      const upsertSpy = vi.mocked(participantEVModel.upsertParticipantEV).mockResolvedValue({} as never);
+
+      const result = await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult("season-1", false);
+
+      expect(result.finishedParticipants).toBe(0);
+      expect(upsertSpy).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+    });
+
+    it("still finalizes a 0-position elimination — those rows are not partial", async () => {
+      vi.mocked(participantResultModel.findParticipantResultsBySportsSeasonId).mockResolvedValue([
+        {
+          id: "result-1",
+          participantId: "participant-1",
+          sportsSeasonId: "season-1",
+          finalPosition: 0,
+          isPartialScore: false,
+          qualifyingPoints: null,
+          notes: null,
+          createdAt: new Date(),
+          updatedAt: new Date(),
+          participant: null,
+        },
+      ] as never);
+
+      vi.mocked(participantEVModel.getAllParticipantEVsForSeason).mockResolvedValue([]);
+      const upsertSpy = vi.mocked(participantEVModel.upsertParticipantEV).mockResolvedValue({} as never);
+
+      const result = await updateProbabilitiesAfterResult("season-1", false);
+
+      expect(result.finishedParticipants).toBe(1);
+      expect(upsertSpy.mock.calls[0][0].probabilities.probFirst).toBe(0);
+    });
   });
 });

app/services/probability-updater.ts

@@ -123,10 +123,17 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
     // Get all existing EVs
     const existingEVs = await getAllParticipantEVsForSeason(sportsSeasonId);
 
-    // Create map of participantId -> finalPosition
+    // Create map of participantId -> finalPosition.
+    //
+    // Provisional rows (isPartialScore) are NOT finished: they are the guaranteed
+    // minimum for someone still alive — a bracket entry floor, or the floor banked
+    // by winning a round. Treating them as finished pins the participant to 100% at
+    // that floor and drops them from the ICM recalculation below, which would zero
+    // the championship odds of every team still playing. They belong in the
+    // unfinished set until a real result lands.
     const finishedMap = new Map(
       results
-        .filter(r => r.finalPosition !== null)
+        .filter(r => r.finalPosition !== null && !r.isPartialScore)
         .map(r => [r.participantId, r.finalPosition ?? 0])
     );