app/models/__tests__/bracket-template-lookup.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+import { describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
+
+import {
+  getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason,
+  getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons,
+} from "../bracket-template";
+
+/**
+ * A sports season can own several scoring events — a bracket plus schedule events, or a
+ * re-created bracket alongside a stale one. Resolving the template from an arbitrary row
+ * is not harmless: calculateBracketPoints falls back to the flat 5th–8th average when the
+ * template id is null, so losing "llws_20" makes a team locked into 5th–6th and one
+ * locked into 7th–8th both score 20.
+ */
+
+/**
+ * Minimal db stub. Applies the same filter and ordering the real query does, so the
+ * assertions exercise the helper's row-picking rather than re-stating the query.
+ */
+function makeDb(
+  rows: Array<{ sportsSeasonId: string; bracketTemplateId: string | null; createdAt: Date }>
+) {
+  const findMany = vi.fn(async () =>
+    rows
+      .filter((row) => row.bracketTemplateId !== null)
+      .toSorted((a, b) => b.createdAt.getTime() - a.createdAt.getTime())
+  );
+  return { db: { query: { scoringEvents: { findMany } } } as any, findMany };
+}
+
+describe("getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason", () => {
+  it("ignores a non-bracket event and returns the bracket event's template", async () => {
+    const { db } = makeDb([
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: null, createdAt: new Date("2026-08-01") },
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: "llws_20", createdAt: new Date("2026-07-01") },
+    ]);
+
+    await expect(getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason("ss1", db)).resolves.toBe("llws_20");
+  });
+
+  it("takes the most recent bracket event when a stale one is still around", async () => {
+    const { db } = makeDb([
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: "simple_16", createdAt: new Date("2026-06-01") },
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: "llws_20", createdAt: new Date("2026-08-01") },
+    ]);
+
+    await expect(getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason("ss1", db)).resolves.toBe("llws_20");
+  });
+
+  it("returns null when the season has no bracket event", async () => {
+    const { db } = makeDb([
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: null, createdAt: new Date("2026-08-01") },
+    ]);
+
+    await expect(getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason("ss1", db)).resolves.toBeNull();
+  });
+});
+
+describe("getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons", () => {
+  it("resolves each season independently in one query", async () => {
+    const { db, findMany } = makeDb([
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss1", bracketTemplateId: "llws_20", createdAt: new Date("2026-08-01") },
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss2", bracketTemplateId: "afl_10", createdAt: new Date("2026-08-02") },
+      { sportsSeasonId: "ss3", bracketTemplateId: null, createdAt: new Date("2026-08-03") },
+    ]);
+
+    const resolved = await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons(["ss1", "ss2", "ss3"], db);
+
+    expect(resolved.get("ss1")).toBe("llws_20");
+    expect(resolved.get("ss2")).toBe("afl_10");
+    expect(resolved.get("ss3")).toBeNull();
+    expect(findMany).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
+  });
+
+  it("gives every requested season an entry so callers can cache the miss", async () => {
+    const { db } = makeDb([]);
+
+    const resolved = await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons(["ss1", "ss2"], db);
+
+    expect([...resolved.entries()]).toEqual([
+      ["ss1", null],
+      ["ss2", null],
+    ]);
+  });
+
+  it("does not query at all for an empty season list", async () => {
+    const { db, findMany } = makeDb([]);
+
+    await expect(getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons([], db)).resolves.toEqual(new Map());
+    expect(findMany).not.toHaveBeenCalled();
+  });
+});

app/models/__tests__/team-projected-score.test.ts

@@ -80,6 +80,9 @@ function makeDb(
       },
       scoringEvents: {
         findFirst: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue({ bracketTemplateId: null }),
+        // getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons filters to events that carry a
+        // template, so "no bracket template" is an empty result, not a null row.
+        findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue([]),
       },
       seasonParticipantResults: {
         findMany: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue(seasonResults),

app/models/bracket-template.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+import { database } from "~/database/context";
+import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
+import { and, desc, inArray, isNotNull } from "drizzle-orm";
+
+/**
+ * Resolve which bracket template a sports season's placements should be scored against.
+ *
+ * A sports season can own several scoring events — a bracket plus schedule events, or a
+ * re-created bracket alongside a stale one — and only some of them carry a
+ * bracketTemplateId. Picking an arbitrary row is not harmless: calculateBracketPoints
+ * falls back to the standard single 5th–8th tier when the template id is null, which
+ * silently collapses the two-tier templates (llws_20, afl_10) so a team locked into
+ * 5th–6th and one locked into 7th–8th both score the flat 5–8 average. The 3rd/4th
+ * distinction that llws_20 and fifa_48 have goes the same way.
+ *
+ * So: only events that actually carry a template are considered, most recent first —
+ * matching the "a re-created event wins over a stale one" rule the LLWS simulator uses
+ * when it picks its bracket event.
+ *
+ * Every requested season gets an entry, null when it has no bracket event, so callers
+ * can cache the negative result too.
+ */
+export async function getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons(
+  sportsSeasonIds: string[],
+  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
+): Promise<Map<string, string | null>> {
+  const resolved = new Map<string, string | null>(
+    sportsSeasonIds.map((id) => [id, null])
+  );
+  if (sportsSeasonIds.length === 0) return resolved;
+
+  const db = providedDb || database();
+
+  const events = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
+    where: and(
+      inArray(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonIds),
+      isNotNull(schema.scoringEvents.bracketTemplateId)
+    ),
+    columns: { sportsSeasonId: true, bracketTemplateId: true },
+    // createdAt can tie when a bracket is generated in the same transaction as a
+    // sibling event, so id breaks the tie and keeps the choice deterministic.
+    orderBy: [desc(schema.scoringEvents.createdAt), desc(schema.scoringEvents.id)],
+  });
+
+  for (const event of events) {
+    // Ordered newest-first, so the first row seen for a season is the one to keep.
+    // The isNotNull filter means bracketTemplateId is set, but a mocked or partial row
+    // could still carry null — skip those rather than caching a null as a real answer.
+    if (resolved.get(event.sportsSeasonId) === null && event.bracketTemplateId) {
+      resolved.set(event.sportsSeasonId, event.bracketTemplateId);
+    }
+  }
+
+  return resolved;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Single-season form of getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons.
+ */
+export async function getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason(
+  sportsSeasonId: string,
+  providedDb?: ReturnType<typeof database>
+): Promise<string | null> {
+  const resolved = await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons([sportsSeasonId], providedDb);
+  return resolved.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null;
+}

app/models/draft-pick.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import {
   calculateBracketPoints,
   calculateSharedPlacementPoints,
 } from "./scoring-rules";
+import { getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons } from "./bracket-template";
 
 export async function createDraftPick(data: {
   seasonId: string;
@@ -175,18 +176,10 @@ export async function getDraftedParticipantsWithPoints(
   }
 
   // Batch-fetch bracket template IDs (one per sports season)
-  const bracketTemplateMap = new Map<string, string | null>();
+  const bracketTemplateMap =
-  if (bracketSeasonIds.size > 0) {
+    bracketSeasonIds.size > 0
-    const events = await db.query.scoringEvents.findMany({
+      ? await getBracketTemplateIdsForSportsSeasons([...bracketSeasonIds], db)
-      where: inArray(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, [...bracketSeasonIds]),
+      : new Map<string, string | null>();
-      columns: { sportsSeasonId: true, bracketTemplateId: true },
-    });
-    for (const ev of events) {
-      if (!bracketTemplateMap.has(ev.sportsSeasonId)) {
-        bracketTemplateMap.set(ev.sportsSeasonId, ev.bracketTemplateId ?? null);
-      }
-    }
-  }
 
   // Batch-fetch QP totals for qualifying_points participants
   const qpMap = new Map<string, number>(); // participantId → totalQP

app/models/scoring-calculator.ts

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import { doesLoserAdvance, findPlayoffMatchesByEventId } from "~/models/playoff-
 import { getUserDisplayName } from "~/models/user";
 import { findDiscordIdsByUserIds } from "~/models/account";
 import { createDailySnapshot } from "~/models/standings";
+import { getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason } from "~/models/bracket-template";
 import { recordMatchScoreEvents } from "~/models/team-score-events";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
 import { getEventResults } from "./event-result";
@@ -1465,11 +1466,7 @@ export async function calculateTeamScore(
     if (bracketTemplateCache.has(sportsSeasonId)) {
       return bracketTemplateCache.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null;
     }
-    const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
+    const templateId = await getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, db);
-      where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
-      columns: { bracketTemplateId: true },
-    });
-    const templateId = event?.bracketTemplateId ?? null;
     bracketTemplateCache.set(sportsSeasonId, templateId);
     return templateId;
   }
@@ -1578,11 +1575,7 @@ export async function calculateTeamProjectedScore(
     if (bracketTemplateCache.has(sportsSeasonId)) {
       return bracketTemplateCache.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null;
     }
-    const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
+    const templateId = await getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, db);
-      where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
-      columns: { bracketTemplateId: true },
-    });
-    const templateId = event?.bracketTemplateId ?? null;
     bracketTemplateCache.set(sportsSeasonId, templateId);
     return templateId;
   }

app/models/standings.ts

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import type { TeamStanding, TeamStandingSnapshot, TeamStandingWithChange } from
 import { calculateBracketPoints, calculateFantasyPoints } from "~/models/scoring-rules";
 import { logger } from "~/lib/logger";
 import { getParticipantEV } from "./participant-expected-value";
+import { getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason } from "./bracket-template";
 import { calculateEV } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
 
 // Re-export types from shared types file
@@ -163,11 +164,7 @@ export async function getTeamScoreBreakdown(
     if (bracketTemplateCache.has(sportsSeasonId)) {
       return bracketTemplateCache.get(sportsSeasonId) ?? null;
     }
-    const event = await db.query.scoringEvents.findFirst({
+    const templateId = await getBracketTemplateIdForSportsSeason(sportsSeasonId, db);
-      where: eq(schema.scoringEvents.sportsSeasonId, sportsSeasonId),
-      columns: { bracketTemplateId: true },
-    });
-    const templateId = event?.bracketTemplateId ?? null;
     bracketTemplateCache.set(sportsSeasonId, templateId);
     return templateId;
   }

app/routes/__tests__/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+import { describe, expect, it, vi } from "vitest";
+
+/**
+ * The Expected Values admin page renders EV from the stored probability columns.
+ *
+ * It used to carry its own hardcoded scoring table (100/70/45/45/20/20/20/20), which
+ * flattened positions 5–8 to 20 points each. For a standard single-elimination bracket
+ * that was invisible — all four quarterfinal losers share one tier worth
+ * avg(25,25,15,15) = 20 anyway — but for the templates that split 5–8 into two tiers
+ * (llws_20, afl_10) it reported a team locked into 5th–6th and a team locked into
+ * 7th–8th as the same 20 points. These pin it to the shared DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES.
+ */
+
+vi.mock("../admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.server", () => ({
+  loader: vi.fn(),
+}));
+
+import { evFromProbs } from "../admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values";
+
+const ZERO = {
+  probFirst: "0", probSecond: "0", probThird: "0", probFourth: "0",
+  probFifth: "0", probSixth: "0", probSeventh: "0", probEighth: "0",
+};
+
+describe("evFromProbs", () => {
+  it("gives a team locked into the 5th–6th tier 25 points, not 20", () => {
+    expect(evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFifth: "0.5", probSixth: "0.5" })).toBe(25);
+  });
+
+  it("gives a team locked into the 7th–8th tier 15 points, not 20", () => {
+    expect(evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probSeventh: "0.5", probEighth: "0.5" })).toBe(15);
+  });
+
+  it("still gives a single 5th–8th tier (4 QF losers) 20 points", () => {
+    const ev = evFromProbs({
+      ...ZERO,
+      probFifth: "0.25", probSixth: "0.25", probSeventh: "0.25", probEighth: "0.25",
+    });
+    expect(ev).toBe(20);
+  });
+
+  it("keeps 3rd and 4th distinct rather than a flat 45 each", () => {
+    expect(evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probThird: "1" })).toBe(50);
+    expect(evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFourth: "1" })).toBe(40);
+  });
+
+  it("preserves the 340 total-EV invariant across a full set of unit columns", () => {
+    const perPosition = [
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFirst: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probSecond: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probThird: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFourth: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probFifth: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probSixth: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probSeventh: "1" }),
+      evFromProbs({ ...ZERO, probEighth: "1" }),
+    ];
+    expect(perPosition.reduce((sum, ev) => sum + ev, 0)).toBe(340);
+  });
+
+  it("returns 0 for a participant with no probability mass", () => {
+    expect(evFromProbs(ZERO)).toBe(0);
+  });
+});

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.server.ts

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import {
   batchUpsertParticipantEVs,
   getAllParticipantEVsForSeason
 } from "~/models/participant-expected-value";
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from "~/lib/scoring-types";
 
 export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
   const sportsSeason = await findSportsSeasonById(params.id);
@@ -27,17 +28,6 @@ export async function loader({ params }: Route.LoaderArgs) {
   };
 }
 
-const scoringRules = {
-  pointsFor1st: 100,
-  pointsFor2nd: 70,
-  pointsFor3rd: 45,
-  pointsFor4th: 45,
-  pointsFor5th: 20,
-  pointsFor6th: 20,
-  pointsFor7th: 20,
-  pointsFor8th: 20,
-};
-
 export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
   const formData = await request.formData();
 
@@ -58,7 +48,7 @@ export async function action({ request, params }: Route.ActionArgs) {
         probSeventh: parseFloat(formData.get(`probSeventh_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
         probEighth: parseFloat(formData.get(`probEighth_${participantId}`) as string || "0") / 100,
       },
-      scoringRules,
+      scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
       source: "manual" as const,
     }));
 

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.expected-values.tsx

@@ -19,6 +19,8 @@ import {
   TableRow,
 } from "~/components/ui/table";
 import { ArrowLeft, Calculator } from "lucide-react";
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from "~/lib/scoring-types";
+import { calculateEV } from "~/services/ev-calculator";
 
 export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
   return [{ title: `Expected Values — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
@@ -26,9 +28,18 @@ export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
 
 export { loader };
 
-// DEFAULT scoring values — must match DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES in the simulate route.
+// EV is shown on the same reference scale the runner persists it with: a sports season
-// Scoring: 1st=100, 2nd=70, 3rd/4th (FF losers)=45 each, 5th–8th (E8 losers)=20 each.
+// is shared across leagues with different scoring, so DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES is the
-// Sum = 100+70+45+45+20+20+20+20 = 340.
+// common scale and each league re-derives its own EV from the stored probabilities
+// (see getPersistenceContext in services/simulations/runner.ts).
+//
+// Scoring: 1st=100, 2nd=70, 3rd=50, 4th=40, 5th/6th=25 each, 7th/8th=15 each.
+// Sum = 100+70+50+40+25+25+15+15 = 340.
+//
+// The 5th–8th values must stay distinct rather than collapsing to a flat 20: templates
+// that split that zone into two tiers (llws_20, afl_10) put a team locked into 5th–6th
+// at probFifth=probSixth=0.5 (EV 25) and one locked into 7th–8th at
+// probSeventh=probEighth=0.5 (EV 15). A flat table reports both as 20.
 //
 // Total EV invariant: Σ EV across all participants = Σ scoring values = 340,
 // because each probability column sums to 1.0 across all participants.
@@ -36,20 +47,23 @@ export { loader };
 //   1. Stale EV records from a prior simulation run (fix: re-run simulation, which now
 //      zeros non-bracket participants automatically)
 //   2. DB precision truncation (numeric(6,4) = 4dp; max drift ≈ ±1 for 68 teams)
-const SCORING = [100, 70, 45, 45, 20, 20, 20, 20] as const;
+export function evFromProbs(ev: {
-
-function evFromProbs(ev: {
   probFirst: string; probSecond: string; probThird: string; probFourth: string;
   probFifth: string; probSixth: string; probSeventh: string; probEighth: string;
 }): number {
-  return parseFloat(ev.probFirst) * SCORING[0]
+  return calculateEV(
-    + parseFloat(ev.probSecond) * SCORING[1]
+    {
-    + parseFloat(ev.probThird) * SCORING[2]
+      probFirst: parseFloat(ev.probFirst),
-    + parseFloat(ev.probFourth) * SCORING[3]
+      probSecond: parseFloat(ev.probSecond),
-    + parseFloat(ev.probFifth) * SCORING[4]
+      probThird: parseFloat(ev.probThird),
-    + parseFloat(ev.probSixth) * SCORING[5]
+      probFourth: parseFloat(ev.probFourth),
-    + parseFloat(ev.probSeventh) * SCORING[6]
+      probFifth: parseFloat(ev.probFifth),
-    + parseFloat(ev.probEighth) * SCORING[7];
+      probSixth: parseFloat(ev.probSixth),
+      probSeventh: parseFloat(ev.probSeventh),
+      probEighth: parseFloat(ev.probEighth),
+    },
+    DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES
+  );
 }
 
 function fmt(val: string | number) {

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.golf-skills.tsx

@@ -8,7 +8,8 @@ import { batchUpsertParticipantEVs } from '~/models/participant-expected-value';
 import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from '~/models/ev-snapshot';
 import { getGolfSkillsForSeason, batchUpsertGolfSkills } from '~/models/golf-skills';
 import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from '~/services/simulations/registry';
-import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { calculateEV } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from '~/lib/scoring-types';
 import { recalculateStandings } from '~/models/scoring-calculator';
 import { database } from '~/database/context';
 import * as schema from '~/database/schema';
@@ -28,17 +29,6 @@ import { useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react';
 import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle, UserPlus } from 'lucide-react';
 import { normalizeName, diceCoefficient } from '~/lib/fuzzy-match';
 
-const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
-  pointsFor1st: 100,
-  pointsFor2nd: 70,
-  pointsFor3rd: 45,
-  pointsFor4th: 45,
-  pointsFor5th: 20,
-  pointsFor6th: 20,
-  pointsFor7th: 20,
-  pointsFor8th: 20,
-};
-
 export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
   return [{ title: `Golf Skills — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? 'Sports Season'} - Brackt Admin` }];
 }

app/routes/admin.sports-seasons.$id.surface-elo.tsx

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ import {
 import { batchUpsertParticipantEvSnapshots } from '~/models/ev-snapshot';
 import { getSurfaceElosForSeason, batchUpsertSurfaceElos } from '~/models/surface-elo';
 import { getSimulator, type SimulatorType } from '~/services/simulations/registry';
-import { calculateEV, type ScoringRules } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { calculateEV } from '~/services/ev-calculator';
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from '~/lib/scoring-types';
 import { recalculateStandings } from '~/models/scoring-calculator';
 import { database } from '~/database/context';
 import * as schema from '~/database/schema';
@@ -30,17 +31,6 @@ import { useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react';
 import { Loader2, CheckCircle2, AlertCircle, UserPlus } from 'lucide-react';
 import { normalizeName, diceCoefficient } from '~/lib/fuzzy-match';
 
-const DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: ScoringRules = {
-  pointsFor1st: 100,
-  pointsFor2nd: 70,
-  pointsFor3rd: 45,
-  pointsFor4th: 45,
-  pointsFor5th: 20,
-  pointsFor6th: 20,
-  pointsFor7th: 20,
-  pointsFor8th: 20,
-};
-
 export function meta({ data }: Route.MetaArgs): Route.MetaDescriptors {
   return [{ title: `Surface Elo — ${data?.sportsSeason?.name ?? "Sports Season"} - Brackt Admin` }];
 }

app/services/probability-updater.ts

@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ import type { ProbabilityDistribution } from "./ev-calculator";
 import { database } from "~/database/context";
 import * as schema from "~/database/schema";
 import { eq } from "drizzle-orm";
+import { DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES } from "~/lib/scoring-types";
 
 /**
  * Result of probability update operation
@@ -137,18 +138,9 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
         .map(r => [r.participantId, r.finalPosition ?? 0])
     );
 
-    // Update finished participants
+    // Update finished participants. The shared default table is used because we only
-    // Use default scoring rules (we only care about setting probabilities, not EV for finished)
+    // care about setting probabilities here, not the EV — each league re-derives its own
-    const defaultScoringRules = {
+    // EV from the stored probabilities in calculateTeamProjectedScore.
-      pointsFor1st: 100,
-      pointsFor2nd: 70,
-      pointsFor3rd: 50,
-      pointsFor4th: 40,
-      pointsFor5th: 25,
-      pointsFor6th: 25,
-      pointsFor7th: 15,
-      pointsFor8th: 15,
-    };
 
     // Sequential: upsertParticipantEV calls syncVorpForSeason internally, which
     // reads and rewrites every seasonParticipants row for this sportsSeasonId.
@@ -162,7 +154,7 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
           participantId,
           sportsSeasonId,
           probabilities,
-          scoringRules: defaultScoringRules,
+          scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
           source: 'manual', // Result is from actual outcome
         });
 
@@ -216,7 +208,7 @@ export async function updateProbabilitiesAfterResult(
               participantId,
               sportsSeasonId,
               probabilities,
-              scoringRules: defaultScoringRules,
+              scoringRules: DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES,
               source: 'futures_odds', // Recalculated from remaining odds
             });
 

app/services/simulations/__tests__/llws-simulator.test.ts

@@ -767,6 +767,75 @@ describe("LLWSSimulator", () => {
       expect(results.reduce((s, r) => s + r.probabilities.probFirst, 0)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 1);
     });
 
+    /**
+     * Play out the entire U.S. side, so two of its teams are locked into a scoring tier:
+     * us-7 loses Elimination Round 4 (the 7th-8th tier) and us-9 loses the Elimination
+     * Final (the 5th-6th tier). Every game feeding those two is recorded, which is what
+     * makes the results honorable — makePlayGame only replays a result when the teams
+     * the simulation routed into the game are the pair the result was recorded between.
+     *
+     * Slot order per side is ids[0..7] into the four Opening Round games and ids[8..9]
+     * as the byes, so the U.S. draw is us-1 v us-2, us-3 v us-4, us-5 v us-6,
+     * us-7 v us-8, with us-9 and us-10 entering at Winners Round 2.
+     */
+    function usSidePlayedOut(): PlayoffMatchRow[] {
+      let matches = seededBracket();
+      const play = (round: string, matchNumber: number, winnerId: string, loserId: string) => {
+        matches = completeMatch(matches, round, matchNumber, winnerId, loserId);
+      };
+
+      // Winners bracket
+      play("Opening Round", 1, "us-1", "us-2");
+      play("Opening Round", 2, "us-3", "us-4");
+      play("Opening Round", 3, "us-5", "us-6");
+      play("Opening Round", 4, "us-7", "us-8");
+      play("Winners Round 2", 1, "us-9", "us-1");   // bye us-9 v OP1 winner
+      play("Winners Round 2", 2, "us-10", "us-3");  // bye us-10 v OP2 winner
+      play("Winners Semifinals", 1, "us-5", "us-9");
+      play("Winners Semifinals", 2, "us-10", "us-7");
+      play("Winners Final", 1, "us-5", "us-10");
+
+      // Elimination bracket, including the deliberate cross-overs
+      play("Elimination Round 1", 1, "us-4", "us-6");  // OP2 loser v OP3 loser
+      play("Elimination Round 1", 2, "us-2", "us-8");  // OP1 loser v OP4 loser
+      play("Elimination Round 2", 1, "us-1", "us-4");
+      play("Elimination Round 2", 2, "us-3", "us-2");
+      play("Elimination Round 3", 1, "us-9", "us-3");
+      play("Elimination Round 3", 2, "us-7", "us-1");
+      play("Elimination Round 4", 1, "us-9", "us-7");  // us-7 out: 7th-8th tier
+      play("Elimination Final", 1, "us-10", "us-9");   // us-9 out: 5th-6th tier
+
+      return matches;
+    }
+
+    it("puts a team locked into the 5th-6th tier at exactly 50/50 across those two spots", async () => {
+      setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), favouredEvRows, usSidePlayedOut());
+      const results = await new LLWSSimulator(2_000).simulate("season-1");
+      const locked = probsFor(results, "us-9");
+
+      // The tier is two tied positions, so its probability splits evenly across them.
+      // Under DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES that is 0.5 x 25 + 0.5 x 25 = 25 points of EV —
+      // the 5th-6th tier value, not the flat 5th-8th average of 20.
+      expect(locked.probFifth).toBe(0.5);
+      expect(locked.probSixth).toBe(0.5);
+      expect(locked.probSeventh).toBe(0);
+      expect(locked.probEighth).toBe(0);
+      expect(locked.probFirst + locked.probSecond + locked.probThird + locked.probFourth).toBe(0);
+    });
+
+    it("puts a team locked into the 7th-8th tier at exactly 50/50 across those two spots", async () => {
+      setupMockDb(defaultParticipants(), favouredEvRows, usSidePlayedOut());
+      const results = await new LLWSSimulator(2_000).simulate("season-1");
+      const locked = probsFor(results, "us-7");
+
+      // 0.5 x 15 + 0.5 x 15 = 15 points of EV, again distinct from the flat 20.
+      expect(locked.probSeventh).toBe(0.5);
+      expect(locked.probEighth).toBe(0.5);
+      expect(locked.probFifth).toBe(0);
+      expect(locked.probSixth).toBe(0);
+      expect(locked.probFirst + locked.probSecond + locked.probThird + locked.probFourth).toBe(0);
+    });
+
   });
 
   // ── Result-honoring rules ─────────────────────────────────────────────────