import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest"; import { kenpomWinProbability, getNetRating, normalizeTeamName } from "../ncaam-simulator"; // ─── KenPom win probability formula ────────────────────────────────────────── describe("kenpomWinProbability", () => { it("returns 0.5 for equal teams", () => { expect(kenpomWinProbability(25, 25)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 10); }); it("returns >0.5 for team A with higher netrtg", () => { expect(kenpomWinProbability(30, 20)).toBeGreaterThan(0.5); }); it("returns <0.5 for team A with lower netrtg", () => { expect(kenpomWinProbability(20, 30)).toBeLessThan(0.5); }); it("is symmetric: P(A>B) + P(B>A) = 1", () => { const pAB = kenpomWinProbability(35, 20); const pBA = kenpomWinProbability(20, 35); expect(pAB + pBA).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("matches the logistic formula exactly for known values", () => { // netrtgA=38.90 (Duke 2025-26), netrtgB=0 → 1/(1+exp(-38.90/7.5)) const expected = 1 / (1 + Math.exp(-38.90 / 7.5)); expect(kenpomWinProbability(38.90, 0)).toBeCloseTo(expected, 10); }); it("handles negative netrtg (weak team vs average)", () => { // negative netrtg is valid (below-average team) const p = kenpomWinProbability(-2, 0); expect(p).toBeGreaterThan(0); expect(p).toBeLessThan(0.5); }); it("large AEM gap pushes probability toward 1", () => { // 38 point gap (Duke-caliber vs near-zero) → high win prob expect(kenpomWinProbability(38, 0)).toBeGreaterThan(0.99); }); it("scale factor: a 7.5-point gap yields ~73% win probability", () => { // 1 / (1 + exp(-7.5/7.5)) = 1/(1+exp(-1)) ≈ 0.7311 expect(kenpomWinProbability(7.5, 0)).toBeCloseTo(0.7311, 3); }); }); // ─── Team name normalization ────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("normalizeTeamName", () => { it("converts to lowercase", () => { expect(normalizeTeamName("Duke")).toBe("duke"); }); it("trims leading/trailing whitespace", () => { expect(normalizeTeamName(" Duke ")).toBe("duke"); }); it("collapses internal whitespace", () => { expect(normalizeTeamName("North Carolina")).toBe("north carolina"); }); it("preserves punctuation", () => { expect(normalizeTeamName("St. John's")).toBe("st. john's"); }); }); // ─── KenPom data lookup ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("getNetRating", () => { it("returns correct netrtg for exact known name (lowercase)", () => { expect(getNetRating("duke")).toBeCloseTo(38.90, 2); }); it("is case-insensitive", () => { expect(getNetRating("Duke")).toBeCloseTo(38.90, 2); expect(getNetRating("DUKE")).toBeCloseTo(38.90, 2); }); it("handles abbreviated name variants", () => { // Both 'michigan st.' and 'michigan state' should resolve expect(getNetRating("Michigan St.")).toBeCloseTo(28.31, 2); expect(getNetRating("Michigan State")).toBeCloseTo(28.31, 2); }); it("handles name with apostrophe", () => { expect(getNetRating("St. John's")).toBeCloseTo(25.91, 2); }); it("returns 0.0 for an unknown team name", () => { expect(getNetRating("Fictional University")).toBe(0.0); }); it("returns 0.0 for empty string", () => { expect(getNetRating("")).toBe(0.0); }); it("handles negative netrtg (below-average teams)", () => { expect(getNetRating("Idaho")).toBeCloseTo(1.53, 2); expect(getNetRating("Eastern Washington")).toBeCloseTo(0.00, 2); }); }); // ─── Bracket path logic ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("NCAAM bracket advancement path", () => { it("R64 matches 1 and 2 feed R32 match 1 (Math.ceil convention)", () => { expect(Math.ceil(1 / 2)).toBe(1); expect(Math.ceil(2 / 2)).toBe(1); }); it("R64 matches 3 and 4 feed R32 match 2", () => { expect(Math.ceil(3 / 2)).toBe(2); expect(Math.ceil(4 / 2)).toBe(2); }); it("R64 matches 31 and 32 feed R32 match 16", () => { expect(Math.ceil(31 / 2)).toBe(16); expect(Math.ceil(32 / 2)).toBe(16); }); it("32 R64 matches produce exactly 16 R32 slots", () => { const r32Slots = new Set(); for (let i = 1; i <= 32; i++) r32Slots.add(Math.ceil(i / 2)); expect(r32Slots.size).toBe(16); }); it("R32 match i uses 0-indexed winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => { for (let i = 1; i <= 16; i++) { const p1 = (i - 1) * 2; const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1; expect(p1).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); expect(p2).toBeLessThan(32); } }); it("S16 match i uses 0-indexed R32 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => { for (let i = 1; i <= 8; i++) { const p1 = (i - 1) * 2; const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1; expect(p1).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); expect(p2).toBeLessThan(16); } }); it("E8 match i uses 0-indexed S16 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => { for (let i = 1; i <= 4; i++) { const p1 = (i - 1) * 2; const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1; expect(p2).toBeLessThan(8); } }); it("FF match i uses 0-indexed E8 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => { for (let i = 1; i <= 2; i++) { const p1 = (i - 1) * 2; const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1; expect(p2).toBeLessThan(4); } }); }); // ─── Probability bucket math ────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("NCAAM placement bucket probability math", () => { const N = 50_000; it("champion: count/N = 1.0 when a team wins every simulation", () => { const c = N; expect(c / N).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("finalist: count/N = 1.0 when a team reaches final every simulation", () => { expect(N / N).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("FF loser slots: count/(2*N) sums to 1.0 across teams whose counts total 2*N", () => { // 2 FF losers per sim → total across all teams = 2*N // e.g. 2 teams each appearing N times: (N + N) / (2*N) = 1.0 const counts = [N, N]; const sum = counts.reduce((s, c) => s + c / (2 * N), 0); expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("E8 loser slots: count/(4*N) sums to 1.0 across teams whose counts total 4*N", () => { // 4 E8 losers per sim → total across all teams = 4*N // e.g. 4 teams each appearing N times: (4*N) / (4*N) = 1.0 const counts = [N, N, N, N]; const sum = counts.reduce((s, c) => s + c / (4 * N), 0); expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("probThird equals probFourth for the same team (same ff count / 2N)", () => { const ffCount = 12500; const probThird = ffCount / (2 * N); const probFourth = ffCount / (2 * N); expect(probThird).toBe(probFourth); }); it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for the same team (same e8 count / 4N)", () => { const e8Count = 6250; const probs = [e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N)]; expect(probs[0]).toBe(probs[1]); expect(probs[1]).toBe(probs[2]); expect(probs[2]).toBe(probs[3]); }); it("a team exiting in R64 has all-zero probabilities", () => { // R64 losers are never counted in any bucket → all counts stay 0 const c = 0, f = 0, ff = 0, e8 = 0; expect(c / N).toBe(0); expect(f / N).toBe(0); expect(ff / (2 * N)).toBe(0); expect(e8 / (4 * N)).toBe(0); }); }); // ─── EV alignment with scoring rules ───────────────────────────────────────── describe("NCAAM EV calculation alignment with scoring rules", () => { // DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: Champion=100, Finalist=70, FF loser=45, E8 loser=20, rest=0 // (sum = 340; must match DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES in admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulate.tsx) const SCORING = { first: 100, second: 70, thirdFourth: 45, fifthToEighth: 20, }; function computeEV(probs: { probFirst: number; probSecond: number; probThird: number; probFourth: number; probFifth: number; probSixth: number; probSeventh: number; probEighth: number; }): number { return ( probs.probFirst * SCORING.first + probs.probSecond * SCORING.second + probs.probThird * SCORING.thirdFourth + probs.probFourth * SCORING.thirdFourth + probs.probFifth * SCORING.fifthToEighth + probs.probSixth * SCORING.fifthToEighth + probs.probSeventh * SCORING.fifthToEighth + probs.probEighth * SCORING.fifthToEighth ); } it("champion with probFirst=1 earns 100 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 1, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0, probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(100, 10); }); it("finalist with probSecond=1 earns 70 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 0, probSecond: 1, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0, probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(70, 10); }); it("confirmed FF loser (probThird=probFourth=0.5 each) earns 45 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0.5, probFourth: 0.5, probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(45, 10); }); it("confirmed E8 loser (probFifth–Eighth=0.25 each) earns 20 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0, probFifth: 0.25, probSixth: 0.25, probSeventh: 0.25, probEighth: 0.25, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(20, 10); }); it("R64 loser (all zeros) earns 0 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0, probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBe(0); }); });