import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest"; import { barthagWinProbability, getBarthagRating, normalizeTeamName } from "../ncaaw-simulator"; // ─── Log5 win probability formula ──────────────────────────────────────────── describe("barthagWinProbability", () => { it("returns 0.5 for equal teams", () => { expect(barthagWinProbability(0.7, 0.7)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 10); }); it("returns >0.5 for team A with higher Barthag", () => { expect(barthagWinProbability(0.9, 0.6)).toBeGreaterThan(0.5); }); it("returns <0.5 for team A with lower Barthag", () => { expect(barthagWinProbability(0.6, 0.9)).toBeLessThan(0.5); }); it("is symmetric: P(A>B) + P(B>A) = 1", () => { const pAB = barthagWinProbability(0.9, 0.4); const pBA = barthagWinProbability(0.4, 0.9); expect(pAB + pBA).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("satisfies the Barthag definition: barthagWinProbability(x, 0.5) === x", () => { // The whole point of Barthag is P(team beats avg D-I opponent) = barthag expect(barthagWinProbability(0.9, 0.5)).toBeCloseTo(0.9, 10); expect(barthagWinProbability(0.3, 0.5)).toBeCloseTo(0.3, 10); }); it("handles degenerate case: both teams at 0 → coin flip", () => { expect(barthagWinProbability(0, 0)).toBe(0.5); }); it("handles degenerate case: both teams at 1 → coin flip", () => { expect(barthagWinProbability(1, 1)).toBe(0.5); }); it("near-certain win: strong team (0.9996) vs weak team (0.35)", () => { // Connecticut (.9996) vs Norfolk St. (.3468) — very high win probability expect(barthagWinProbability(0.9996, 0.3468)).toBeGreaterThan(0.999); }); it("matches the Log5 formula exactly for known values", () => { const a = 0.9, b = 0.6; const expected = (a * (1 - b)) / (a * (1 - b) + b * (1 - a)); expect(barthagWinProbability(a, b)).toBeCloseTo(expected, 10); }); }); // ─── Team name normalization ────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("normalizeTeamName", () => { it("converts to lowercase", () => { expect(normalizeTeamName("Connecticut")).toBe("connecticut"); }); it("trims leading/trailing whitespace", () => { expect(normalizeTeamName(" UCLA ")).toBe("ucla"); }); it("collapses internal whitespace", () => { expect(normalizeTeamName("South Carolina")).toBe("south carolina"); }); it("preserves punctuation", () => { expect(normalizeTeamName("N.C. State")).toBe("n.c. state"); }); }); // ─── Barthag data lookup ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("getBarthagRating", () => { it("returns correct Barthag for exact known name (lowercase)", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("connecticut")).toBeCloseTo(0.9996, 4); }); it("is case-insensitive", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("Connecticut")).toBeCloseTo(0.9996, 4); expect(getBarthagRating("CONNECTICUT")).toBeCloseTo(0.9996, 4); }); it("resolves uconn alias", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("UConn")).toBeCloseTo(0.9996, 4); }); it("returns correct Barthag for #2 team (UCLA)", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("UCLA")).toBeCloseTo(0.9991, 4); }); it("handles abbreviated name variants", () => { // Both 'michigan st.' and 'michigan state' should resolve expect(getBarthagRating("Michigan St.")).toBeCloseTo(0.9817, 4); expect(getBarthagRating("Michigan State")).toBeCloseTo(0.9817, 4); }); it("handles 'n.c. state' and 'nc state' aliases", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("N.C. State")).toBeCloseTo(0.9766, 4); expect(getBarthagRating("nc state")).toBeCloseTo(0.9766, 4); }); it("handles ole miss alias", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("Ole Miss")).toBeCloseTo(0.9821, 4); }); it("returns 0.5 for an unknown team name (BARTHAG_FALLBACK = average)", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("Fictional University")).toBe(0.5); }); it("returns 0.5 for empty string", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("")).toBe(0.5); }); it("returns correct Barthag for a low-ranked team (Norfolk St.)", () => { expect(getBarthagRating("Norfolk St.")).toBeCloseTo(0.3468, 4); expect(getBarthagRating("Norfolk State")).toBeCloseTo(0.3468, 4); }); }); // ─── Bracket path logic ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("NCAAW bracket advancement path", () => { it("R64 matches 1 and 2 feed R32 match 1 (Math.ceil convention)", () => { expect(Math.ceil(1 / 2)).toBe(1); expect(Math.ceil(2 / 2)).toBe(1); }); it("R64 matches 3 and 4 feed R32 match 2", () => { expect(Math.ceil(3 / 2)).toBe(2); expect(Math.ceil(4 / 2)).toBe(2); }); it("R64 matches 31 and 32 feed R32 match 16", () => { expect(Math.ceil(31 / 2)).toBe(16); expect(Math.ceil(32 / 2)).toBe(16); }); it("32 R64 matches produce exactly 16 R32 slots", () => { const r32Slots = new Set(); for (let i = 1; i <= 32; i++) r32Slots.add(Math.ceil(i / 2)); expect(r32Slots.size).toBe(16); }); it("R32 match i uses 0-indexed winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => { for (let i = 1; i <= 16; i++) { const p1 = (i - 1) * 2; const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1; expect(p1).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); expect(p2).toBeLessThan(32); } }); it("S16 match i uses 0-indexed R32 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => { for (let i = 1; i <= 8; i++) { const p1 = (i - 1) * 2; const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1; expect(p1).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); expect(p2).toBeLessThan(16); } }); it("E8 match i uses 0-indexed S16 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => { for (let i = 1; i <= 4; i++) { const p1 = (i - 1) * 2; const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1; expect(p2).toBeLessThan(8); } }); it("FF match i uses 0-indexed E8 winners at (i-1)*2 and (i-1)*2+1", () => { for (let i = 1; i <= 2; i++) { const p1 = (i - 1) * 2; const p2 = (i - 1) * 2 + 1; expect(p2).toBeLessThan(4); } }); }); // ─── Probability bucket math ────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("NCAAW placement bucket probability math", () => { const N = 50_000; it("champion: count/N = 1.0 when a team wins every simulation", () => { expect(N / N).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("FF loser slots: count/(2*N) sums to 1.0 across teams whose counts total 2*N", () => { // 2 FF losers per sim → total across all teams = 2*N const counts = [N, N]; const sum = counts.reduce((s, c) => s + c / (2 * N), 0); expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("E8 loser slots: count/(4*N) sums to 1.0 across teams whose counts total 4*N", () => { const counts = [N, N, N, N]; const sum = counts.reduce((s, c) => s + c / (4 * N), 0); expect(sum).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 10); }); it("probThird equals probFourth for the same team (same ff count / 2N)", () => { const ffCount = 12500; const probThird = ffCount / (2 * N); const probFourth = ffCount / (2 * N); expect(probThird).toBe(probFourth); }); it("probFifth through probEighth are equal for the same team (same e8 count / 4N)", () => { const e8Count = 6250; const probs = [e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N), e8Count / (4 * N)]; expect(probs[0]).toBe(probs[1]); expect(probs[1]).toBe(probs[2]); expect(probs[2]).toBe(probs[3]); }); }); // ─── EV alignment with scoring rules ───────────────────────────────────────── describe("NCAAW EV calculation alignment with scoring rules", () => { // DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES: Champion=100, Finalist=70, FF loser=45, E8 loser=20, rest=0 // (sum = 340; must match DEFAULT_SCORING_RULES in admin.sports-seasons.$id.simulate.tsx) const SCORING = { first: 100, second: 70, thirdFourth: 45, fifthToEighth: 20, }; function computeEV(probs: { probFirst: number; probSecond: number; probThird: number; probFourth: number; probFifth: number; probSixth: number; probSeventh: number; probEighth: number; }): number { return ( probs.probFirst * SCORING.first + probs.probSecond * SCORING.second + probs.probThird * SCORING.thirdFourth + probs.probFourth * SCORING.thirdFourth + probs.probFifth * SCORING.fifthToEighth + probs.probSixth * SCORING.fifthToEighth + probs.probSeventh * SCORING.fifthToEighth + probs.probEighth * SCORING.fifthToEighth ); } it("champion with probFirst=1 earns 100 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 1, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0, probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(100, 10); }); it("finalist with probSecond=1 earns 70 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 0, probSecond: 1, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0, probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(70, 10); }); it("confirmed FF loser (probThird=probFourth=0.5 each) earns 45 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0.5, probFourth: 0.5, probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(45, 10); }); it("confirmed E8 loser (probFifth–Eighth=0.25 each) earns 20 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0, probFifth: 0.25, probSixth: 0.25, probSeventh: 0.25, probEighth: 0.25, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBeCloseTo(20, 10); }); it("R64 loser (all zeros) earns 0 EV", () => { const probs = { probFirst: 0, probSecond: 0, probThird: 0, probFourth: 0, probFifth: 0, probSixth: 0, probSeventh: 0, probEighth: 0, }; expect(computeEV(probs)).toBe(0); }); });