import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest"; import { gameWinProb, seriesWinProb, sampleField, simulateSwiss, simulateChampionsStage, } from "../cs-major-simulator"; // Helper to build a pool of teams function makeTeams(n: number, baseElo = 1800, baseRank = 1) { return Array.from({ length: n }, (_, i) => ({ id: `team-${i}`, elo: baseElo - i * 10, rank: baseRank + i, })); } // ─── gameWinProb ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("gameWinProb", () => { it("returns 0.5 for equal Elo", () => { expect(gameWinProb(1800, 1800)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 5); expect(gameWinProb(2000, 2000)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 5); }); it("returns > 0.5 for positive advantage, < 0.5 for negative", () => { expect(gameWinProb(2000, 1700)).toBeGreaterThan(0.5); expect(gameWinProb(1700, 2000)).toBeLessThan(0.5); }); it("is symmetric: p(a,b) + p(b,a) = 1", () => { expect(gameWinProb(2000, 1700) + gameWinProb(1700, 2000)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 5); }); it("stays strictly in (0, 1)", () => { const p = gameWinProb(3000, 1000); expect(p).toBeLessThan(1); expect(p).toBeGreaterThan(0); }); }); // ─── seriesWinProb ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("seriesWinProb", () => { it("returns 0.5 for equal players (p=0.5) in any format", () => { expect(seriesWinProb(0.5, 2)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 5); // Bo3 expect(seriesWinProb(0.5, 3)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 5); // Bo5 expect(seriesWinProb(0.5, 4)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 5); // Bo7 }); it("amplifies better team advantage in longer formats", () => { const bo3 = seriesWinProb(0.6, 2); const bo5 = seriesWinProb(0.6, 3); expect(bo5).toBeGreaterThan(bo3); }); it("approaches 1.0 as p → 1.0", () => { expect(seriesWinProb(0.9999, 2)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 3); expect(seriesWinProb(0.9999, 3)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 3); }); it("sums to 1 with complement", () => { const p = 0.63; expect(seriesWinProb(p, 2) + seriesWinProb(1 - p, 2)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 5); expect(seriesWinProb(p, 3) + seriesWinProb(1 - p, 3)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 5); }); it("Bo3 win prob with p=0.6 is in expected range", () => { // P(2-0) + P(2-1) = 0.36 + 2*0.36*0.4 = 0.36 + 0.288 = 0.648 expect(seriesWinProb(0.6, 2)).toBeCloseTo(0.648, 3); }); }); // ─── sampleField ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("sampleField", () => { it("returns all teams when pool <= fieldSize", () => { const pool = makeTeams(20); const field = sampleField(pool, 32); expect(field).toHaveLength(20); }); it("returns fieldSize teams when pool > fieldSize", () => { const pool = makeTeams(50); const field = sampleField(pool, 32); expect(field).toHaveLength(32); }); it("always includes the top 12 ranked teams", () => { const pool = makeTeams(50); const top12Ids = new Set(pool.slice(0, 12).map((t) => t.id)); for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++) { const field = sampleField(pool, 32); const fieldIds = new Set(field.map((t) => t.id)); for (const id of top12Ids) { expect(fieldIds.has(id)).toBe(true); } } }); it("never includes more teams than fieldSize", () => { const pool = makeTeams(100); for (let i = 0; i < 10; i++) { expect(sampleField(pool, 32)).toHaveLength(32); } }); it("returns unique teams", () => { const pool = makeTeams(50); const field = sampleField(pool, 32); const ids = field.map((t) => t.id); expect(new Set(ids).size).toBe(ids.length); }); }); // ─── simulateSwiss ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("simulateSwiss", () => { it("returns exactly 8 advanced and 8 eliminated from 16 teams", () => { const teams = makeTeams(16); const result = simulateSwiss(teams, false); expect(result.advanced).toHaveLength(8); expect(result.eliminated).toHaveLength(8); }); it("all advanced teams have 3 wins (implicit by advancement threshold)", () => { const teams = makeTeams(16); const result = simulateSwiss(teams, false); // Advanced teams reached 3 wins — we can't directly check wins here, // but we verify each participant appears in exactly one group const allIds = new Set([ ...result.advanced.map((t) => t.id), ...result.eliminated.map((t) => t.id), ]); expect(allIds.size).toBe(16); for (const team of teams) { expect(allIds.has(team.id)).toBe(true); } }); it("eliminated teams have wins 0, 1, or 2", () => { const teams = makeTeams(16); const result = simulateSwiss(teams, false); for (const t of result.eliminated) { expect(t.wins).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); expect(t.wins).toBeLessThanOrEqual(2); } }); it("total wins + losses = total matches played (conservation check)", () => { const teams = makeTeams(16); const result = simulateSwiss(teams, false); // Eliminated teams have exactly 3 losses // Total losses = 8 * 3 = 24 // Total wins = sum of wins for all eliminated + 8 * 3 for advanced = ? // Each win by advanced team = 1 loss for an eliminated team const totalLossesEliminated = result.eliminated.length * 3; // 24 expect(totalLossesEliminated).toBe(24); }); it("works with Bo3 format (Swiss all Bo3)", () => { const teams = makeTeams(16); const result = simulateSwiss(teams, true); expect(result.advanced).toHaveLength(8); expect(result.eliminated).toHaveLength(8); }); it("teams with much higher Elo advance more often (stochastic check)", () => { // Top 8 teams have Elo 2000+, bottom 8 have Elo 1000 const teams = [ ...Array.from({ length: 8 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `top-${i}`, elo: 2000, rank: i + 1 })), ...Array.from({ length: 8 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `bot-${i}`, elo: 1000, rank: i + 9 })), ]; let topAdvances = 0; const runs = 100; for (let i = 0; i < runs; i++) { const result = simulateSwiss(teams, false); for (const t of result.advanced) { if (t.id.startsWith("top-")) topAdvances++; } } // Top teams should advance much more than half the time across runs // Expected: ~7-8 top teams advance per run → topAdvances should be >> 400 (50%) expect(topAdvances / runs).toBeGreaterThan(6); }); }); // ─── simulateChampionsStage ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("simulateChampionsStage", () => { it("throws if not exactly 8 teams", () => { expect(() => simulateChampionsStage(makeTeams(7))).toThrow(); expect(() => simulateChampionsStage(makeTeams(9))).toThrow(); }); it("assigns placements to all 8 teams", () => { const teams = makeTeams(8); const result = simulateChampionsStage(teams); expect(result.placements.size).toBe(8); for (const team of teams) { expect(result.placements.has(team.id)).toBe(true); } }); it("has exactly one 1st, one 2nd, two 3rd/4th, four 5th-8th", () => { const teams = makeTeams(8); const result = simulateChampionsStage(teams); const placements = [...result.placements.values()]; expect(placements.filter(p => p === 1)).toHaveLength(1); expect(placements.filter(p => p === 2)).toHaveLength(1); expect(placements.filter(p => p >= 3 && p <= 4)).toHaveLength(2); expect(placements.filter(p => p >= 5 && p <= 8)).toHaveLength(4); }); it("top Elo team wins more often than last (stochastic)", () => { // Use a clear Elo spread so team-0 has a decisive advantage. // makeTeams(8) only gives a 70-pt gap (1800→1730) which puts the // true win rate right at the 0.2 threshold — extremely flaky. // 100-pt steps (1800→1100) give team-0 a ~40% win rate, well clear of 0.25. const teams = Array.from({ length: 8 }, (_, i) => ({ id: `team-${i}`, elo: 1800 - i * 100, rank: i + 1, })); let wins = 0; for (let i = 0; i < 1000; i++) { const result = simulateChampionsStage(teams); if (result.placements.get("team-0") === 1) wins++; } // Should win well above 12.5% (1/8 random baseline) expect(wins / 1000).toBeGreaterThan(0.25); }); });