import { describe, it, expect } from "vitest"; import { eloWinProb, buildDraw, simulateMajor } from "../tennis-simulator"; // ─── eloWinProb ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("eloWinProb", () => { it("returns 0.5 for equal Elo", () => { expect(eloWinProb(1800, 1800)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 5); expect(eloWinProb(1500, 1500)).toBeCloseTo(0.5, 5); }); it("returns > 0.5 for positive Elo advantage, < 0.5 for negative", () => { expect(eloWinProb(2000, 1600)).toBeGreaterThan(0.5); expect(eloWinProb(1600, 2000)).toBeLessThan(0.5); }); it("is symmetric: eloWinProb(a, b) + eloWinProb(b, a) = 1", () => { expect(eloWinProb(2000, 1600) + eloWinProb(1600, 2000)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 5); expect(eloWinProb(1837, 1756) + eloWinProb(1756, 1837)).toBeCloseTo(1.0, 5); }); it("returns value in (0, 1)", () => { expect(eloWinProb(3000, 1000)).toBeLessThan(1); expect(eloWinProb(3000, 1000)).toBeGreaterThan(0); expect(eloWinProb(1000, 3000)).toBeLessThan(1); expect(eloWinProb(1000, 3000)).toBeGreaterThan(0); }); it("larger Elo gap → higher win probability (monotonic)", () => { const p200 = eloWinProb(1900, 1700); const p400 = eloWinProb(2100, 1700); expect(p400).toBeGreaterThan(p200); }); it("400-point gap gives ~91% win probability (standard Elo)", () => { expect(eloWinProb(2200, 1800)).toBeCloseTo(0.909, 2); }); }); // ─── buildDraw ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── function makeIds(n: number): string[] { return Array.from({ length: n }, (_, i) => `p${String(i + 1).padStart(3, "0")}`); } function makeEloMap( ids: string[], elos: number[], rankings?: (number | null)[] ): Map { return new Map(ids.map((id, i) => [id, { worldRanking: rankings ? (rankings[i] ?? null) : i + 1, // default: rank by index (1-indexed) eloHard: elos[i], eloClay: elos[i], eloGrass: elos[i], }])); } describe("buildDraw", () => { const IDS = makeIds(128); it("returns exactly 128 slots", () => { const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, IDS.map((_, i) => 2000 - i)); expect(buildDraw(IDS, eloMap)).toHaveLength(128); }); it("contains every participant exactly once", () => { const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, IDS.map((_, i) => 2000 - i)); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); expect(new Set(draw).size).toBe(128); for (const id of IDS) { expect(draw).toContain(id); } }); it("places seed 1 (highest Elo) in slot 0", () => { const elos = IDS.map((_, i) => 2000 - i); // descending, p001 is best const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); expect(draw[0]).toBe("p001"); // seed 1 always goes to slot 0 }); it("places seed 2 (second-highest Elo) in slot 64", () => { const elos = IDS.map((_, i) => 2000 - i); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); expect(draw[64]).toBe("p002"); // seed 2 always goes to slot 64 }); it("seeds 1 and 2 are in opposite halves (slots 0–63 and 64–127)", () => { const elos = IDS.map((_, i) => 2000 - i); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); // Run multiple times to confirm it's not random for (let i = 0; i < 10; i++) { const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const seed1Slot = draw.indexOf("p001"); const seed2Slot = draw.indexOf("p002"); const seed1InTopHalf = seed1Slot < 64; const seed2InTopHalf = seed2Slot < 64; expect(seed1InTopHalf).not.toBe(seed2InTopHalf); } }); it("seeds by worldRanking regardless of surface (ATP/WTA ranking used for all majors)", () => { // p001 = world #2, p002 = world #1 — p002 should always be seed 1 regardless of surface Elo const eloMap = new Map(); eloMap.set("p001", { worldRanking: 2, eloHard: 2500, eloClay: 2500, eloGrass: 2500 }); // world #2 (high Elo) eloMap.set("p002", { worldRanking: 1, eloHard: 1400, eloClay: 1400, eloGrass: 1400 }); // world #1 (low Elo) for (let i = 2; i < 128; i++) { eloMap.set(IDS[i], { worldRanking: i + 1, eloHard: 1500, eloClay: 1500, eloGrass: 1500 }); } // p002 (world #1) should always be seed 1 → slot 0, regardless of Elo expect(buildDraw(IDS, eloMap)[0]).toBe("p002"); }); it("falls back to Elo 1500 for players not in the Elo map", () => { // Create a map with only 1 entry; remaining 127 get fallback 1500 const partialMap = new Map(); partialMap.set("p001", { worldRanking: 1, eloHard: 2000, eloClay: null, eloGrass: null }); // Should not throw expect(() => buildDraw(IDS, partialMap)).not.toThrow(); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, partialMap); expect(draw).toHaveLength(128); }); }); // ─── simulateMajor ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── describe("simulateMajor", () => { const IDS = makeIds(128); it("returns one QP result per participant in the draw", () => { const elos = IDS.map(() => 1500); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); expect(results).toHaveLength(128); const ids = results.map((r) => r.participantId); expect(new Set(ids).size).toBe(128); }); it("QP values are non-negative", () => { const elos = IDS.map(() => 1500); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); for (const r of results) { expect(r.qp).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0); } }); it("exactly one winner with 20 QP, one finalist with 14 QP", () => { const elos = IDS.map(() => 1500); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); const winners = results.filter((r) => r.qp === 20); const finalists = results.filter((r) => r.qp === 14); expect(winners).toHaveLength(1); expect(finalists).toHaveLength(1); }); it("exactly two SF losers with 9 QP", () => { const elos = IDS.map(() => 1500); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); expect(results.filter((r) => r.qp === 9)).toHaveLength(2); }); it("exactly four QF losers with 4 QP", () => { const elos = IDS.map(() => 1500); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); expect(results.filter((r) => r.qp === 4)).toHaveLength(4); }); it("exactly eight R16 losers with 1.5 QP", () => { const elos = IDS.map(() => 1500); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); expect(results.filter((r) => r.qp === 1.5)).toHaveLength(8); }); it("remaining 112 players (R1–R3 losers) earn 0 QP", () => { const elos = IDS.map(() => 1500); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); expect(results.filter((r) => r.qp === 0)).toHaveLength(112); }); it("with a dominant player (Elo gap 1000+), they win the title almost always", () => { // Give p001 an overwhelming Elo advantage const dominantEloMap = new Map(); dominantEloMap.set("p001", { worldRanking: 1, eloHard: 5000, eloClay: 5000, eloGrass: 5000 }); for (let i = 1; i < IDS.length; i++) { dominantEloMap.set(IDS[i], { worldRanking: i + 1, eloHard: 1000, eloClay: 1000, eloGrass: 1000 }); } let wins = 0; const TRIALS = 200; for (let i = 0; i < TRIALS; i++) { const draw = buildDraw(IDS, dominantEloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, dominantEloMap, "hard"); const p001 = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "p001"); if (p001?.qp === 20) wins++; } // With Elo 5000 vs 1000, win probability per match ≈ 99.99% → should win almost all trials expect(wins).toBeGreaterThan(190); }); it("uses the correct surface Elo for match win probability", () => { // p001 dominates on clay but is average on hard; p002 is the opposite. // With a 2000-point Elo gap, the dominant player wins every match. const surfaceMap = new Map(); surfaceMap.set("p001", { worldRanking: 1, eloHard: 1500, eloClay: 3500, eloGrass: 1500 }); surfaceMap.set("p002", { worldRanking: 2, eloHard: 3500, eloClay: 1500, eloGrass: 1500 }); for (let i = 2; i < 128; i++) { surfaceMap.set(IDS[i], { worldRanking: i + 1, eloHard: 1000, eloClay: 1000, eloGrass: 1000 }); } let p001ClayWins = 0; let p002HardWins = 0; const TRIALS = 50; for (let i = 0; i < TRIALS; i++) { const draw = buildDraw(IDS, surfaceMap); const clayResults = simulateMajor(draw, surfaceMap, "clay"); const hardResults = simulateMajor(draw, surfaceMap, "hard"); if (clayResults.find((r) => r.participantId === "p001")?.qp === 20) p001ClayWins++; if (hardResults.find((r) => r.participantId === "p002")?.qp === 20) p002HardWins++; } // With Elo 3500 vs ≤1500, each player should win essentially every trial on their surface expect(p001ClayWins).toBeGreaterThan(45); // p001 dominates clay expect(p002HardWins).toBeGreaterThan(45); // p002 dominates hard }); it("total QP distributed per major: 20+14+2*9+4*4+8*1.5 = 80 QP", () => { const elos = IDS.map(() => 1500); const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); const total = results.reduce((sum, r) => sum + r.qp, 0); // 20 + 14 + 9*2 + 4*4 + 1.5*8 = 20 + 14 + 18 + 16 + 12 = 80 expect(total).toBeCloseTo(80, 5); }); }); // ─── TennisSimulator column-sum property ────────────────────────────────────── // Full integration test via the simulate() method would require DB mocking. // The column-sum guarantee is verified by the math: // - In each simulation, exactly one player holds each rank 1–8. // - Therefore count[rank] sums to NUM_SIMULATIONS across all players. // - Dividing by NUM_SIMULATIONS gives column sums of exactly 1.0. // This is verified indirectly by the simulateMajor + buildDraw tests above. describe("QP accumulation ranking (unit)", () => { it("seed 1 wins more often than a random player across many trials", () => { const IDS = makeIds(128); const elos = IDS.map((_, i) => 2000 - i * 3); // descending by seeding const eloMap = makeEloMap(IDS, elos); let seed1Wins = 0; const TRIALS = 500; for (let i = 0; i < TRIALS; i++) { const draw = buildDraw(IDS, eloMap); const results = simulateMajor(draw, eloMap, "hard"); const seed1 = results.find((r) => r.participantId === "p001"); if (seed1?.qp === 20) seed1Wins++; } // Seed 1 has ~3 points advantage per player; against 127 opponents should win // substantially more than 1/128 ≈ 0.78% of the time const winRate = seed1Wins / TRIALS; expect(winRate).toBeGreaterThan(0.03); // > 3% (well above random 0.78%) }); });