import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest"; import { getSimulatorInputPolicy, resolveRatings, resolveSourceElos, DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY, } from "../input-policy"; import type { SimulatorManifestProfile } from "../manifest"; const profile = { derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds"] }, } as Pick; const tablePointsProfile = { derivableInputs: { sourceElo: ["projectedTablePoints"] }, } as Pick; describe("simulator input policy", () => { it("keeps direct Elo ahead of derived values", () => { const resolved = resolveSourceElos( [{ participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: 1600, rating: null, sourceOdds: 2000, projectedWins: 20, projectedTablePoints: null }], profile, { seasonGames: 82 } ); expect(resolved.get("team-1")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1600, method: "direct" }); }); it("derives Elo from projected wins when Elo is missing", () => { const resolved = resolveSourceElos( [{ participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: 60, projectedTablePoints: null }], profile, { seasonGames: 82, parityFactor: 400 } ); expect(resolved.get("team-1")?.method).toBe("projectedWins"); expect(resolved.get("team-1")?.sourceElo).toBeGreaterThan(1500); }); it("uses parityFactor as the projected table points to Elo spread", () => { const input = { participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: 76, }; const compressed = resolveSourceElos([input], tablePointsProfile, { seasonGames: 38, parityFactor: 250, }); const wider = resolveSourceElos([input], tablePointsProfile, { seasonGames: 38, parityFactor: 1000, }); expect(compressed.get("team-1")?.sourceElo).toBeLessThan(wider.get("team-1")?.sourceElo ?? 0); }); it("blocks missing Elo unless a fallback strategy is configured", () => { const inputs = [{ participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }]; expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, {}).has("team-1")).toBe(false); expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { inputPolicy: { missingEloStrategy: "fallbackElo", fallbackElo: 1375 }, }).get("team-1")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1375, method: "fallbackElo" }); }); it("supports worst-known-minus tail fallback", () => { const resolved = resolveSourceElos( [ { participantId: "known-1", sourceElo: 1500, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "known-2", sourceElo: 1430, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "tail", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ], profile, { inputPolicy: { missingEloStrategy: "worstKnownMinus", fallbackEloDelta: 30 } } ); expect(resolved.get("tail")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1400, method: "worstKnownMinus" }); }); it("derives Elo from futures odds when no direct Elo is present", () => { const resolved = resolveSourceElos( [ { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ], profile, {} ); expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds"); expect(resolved.get("longshot")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds"); expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.sourceElo).toBeGreaterThan(resolved.get("longshot")?.sourceElo ?? Infinity); }); it("ignores a lone sourceOdds participant rather than assigning a flat Elo", () => { const inputs = [ { participantId: "only", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ]; // Needs at least 2 odds to derive a spread; with block strategy it stays unresolved. expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, {}).has("only")).toBe(false); // With a fallback strategy it resolves via that method, not "sourceOdds". expect( resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { inputPolicy: { missingEloStrategy: "fallbackElo", fallbackElo: 1400 }, }).get("only") ).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1400, method: "fallbackElo" }); }); it("derives Elo from odds once a prior direct Elo has been cleared", () => { // Regression: after entering futures odds the simulator inputs row keeps // sourceOdds but has its sourceElo nulled. The resolver must pick "sourceOdds", // not resurrect a "direct" Elo. const resolved = resolveSourceElos( [ { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ], profile, {} ); expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds"); expect(resolved.get("longshot")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds"); }); it("derives ratings from futures odds when the profile allows it", () => { const resolved = resolveRatings( [ { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ], { derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] } }, { inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35 } } ); expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds"); expect(resolved.get("longshot")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds"); expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.rating).toBeGreaterThan(resolved.get("longshot")?.rating ?? 999); }); it("blocks missing ratings unless a rating fallback strategy is configured", () => { const inputs = [ { participantId: "known", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "tail", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ]; const ratingProfile = { derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] } } as Pick; expect(resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, { inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35 }, }).has("tail")).toBe(false); expect(resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, { inputPolicy: { missingRatingStrategy: "fallbackRating", fallbackRating: -4, ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, }, }).get("tail")).toMatchObject({ rating: -4, method: "fallbackRating" }); }); it("supports worst-known-minus rating fallback with clamping", () => { const resolved = resolveRatings( [ { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: 30, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "known-tail", sourceElo: null, rating: -8, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "missing-tail", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ], { derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] } }, { inputPolicy: { missingRatingStrategy: "worstKnownMinus", fallbackRatingDelta: 5, ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, }, } ); expect(resolved.get("missing-tail")).toMatchObject({ rating: -10, method: "worstKnownMinus" }); }); it("does not clamp a directly entered Elo above the policy ceiling", () => { // Snooker/darts enter manual Elos well above the default 1900 ceiling and // have no odds source — the direct value must pass through unclamped. const eloOnlyProfile = {} as Pick; const resolved = resolveSourceElos( [ { participantId: "ronnie", sourceElo: 2450, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "judd", sourceElo: 2300, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ], eloOnlyProfile, {} ); expect(resolved.get("ronnie")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 2450, method: "direct" }); expect(resolved.get("judd")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 2300, method: "direct" }); }); it("blends base Elo and futures odds into a single Elo by oddsWeight", () => { const inputs = [ { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: 1800, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: 1200, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ]; // oddsWeight 0: the stored base Elo wins outright. const eloOnly = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0 } }); expect(eloOnly.get("favorite")).toMatchObject({ sourceElo: 1800, method: "direct" }); // oddsWeight 1: futures fully override the base Elo. const oddsOnly = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 1 } }); expect(oddsOnly.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds"); expect(oddsOnly.get("longshot")?.method).toBe("sourceOdds"); // Between: a blend that sits strictly between the base and the odds-derived Elo. const oddsElo = oddsOnly.get("favorite")!.sourceElo; const blended = resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.5 } }); expect(blended.get("favorite")?.method).toBe("blend"); const blendedElo = blended.get("favorite")!.sourceElo; expect(blendedElo).toBeGreaterThan(Math.min(1800, oddsElo)); expect(blendedElo).toBeLessThan(Math.max(1800, oddsElo)); expect(blendedElo).toBeCloseTo(Math.round(0.5 * 1800 + 0.5 * oddsElo), 0); }); it("blends projected wins with futures odds when both are present", () => { const inputs = [ { participantId: "team-1", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: 60, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "team-2", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: 20, projectedTablePoints: null }, ]; // oddsWeight 0: projectedWins is the base. expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { seasonGames: 82, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0 } }).get("team-1")?.method) .toBe("projectedWins"); // oddsWeight 1: futures override the projection. expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { seasonGames: 82, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 1 } }).get("team-1")?.method) .toBe("sourceOdds"); // Between: blended. expect(resolveSourceElos(inputs, profile, { seasonGames: 82, inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.4 } }).get("team-1")?.method) .toBe("blend"); }); it("blends a direct rating with futures odds by oddsWeight", () => { const ratingProfile = { derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] } } as Pick; const inputs = [ { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: 30, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: -5, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ]; // oddsWeight 0: direct rating wins. expect(resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, { inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, oddsWeight: 0 } }).get("favorite")) .toMatchObject({ rating: 30, method: "direct" }); // oddsWeight 1: odds override the rating. expect( resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, { inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, oddsWeight: 1 }, }).get("favorite")?.method ).toBe("sourceOdds"); // Between: blended. expect( resolveRatings(inputs, ratingProfile, { inputPolicy: { ratingMin: -10, ratingMax: 35, oddsWeight: 0.5 }, }).get("favorite")?.method ).toBe("blend"); }); it("parses and clamps the base Elo priority and odds weight", () => { const defaults = getSimulatorInputPolicy({}); expect(defaults.baseEloPriority).toEqual(DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY); expect(defaults.oddsWeight).toBe(0.3); // oddsWeight lives under inputPolicy and is clamped to [0, 1]; a top-level // config.oddsWeight is ignored (single home); junk base-priority entries drop. expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 0.6 } }).oddsWeight).toBe(0.6); expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ oddsWeight: 0.6 }).oddsWeight).toBe(0.3); expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: 5 } }).oddsWeight).toBe(1); expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { oddsWeight: -2 } }).oddsWeight).toBe(0); expect( getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { baseEloPriority: ["projectedWins", "sourceOdds", "sourceElo"] } }).baseEloPriority ).toEqual(["projectedWins", "sourceElo"]); // An empty/all-invalid priority falls back to the default. expect(getSimulatorInputPolicy({ inputPolicy: { baseEloPriority: ["nope"] } }).baseEloPriority).toEqual( DEFAULT_BASE_ELO_PRIORITY ); }); it("uses NCAAW-style rating scale when deriving and falling back", () => { const resolved = resolveRatings( [ { participantId: "favorite", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 300, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "longshot", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: 20000, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, { participantId: "tail", sourceElo: null, rating: null, sourceOdds: null, projectedWins: null, projectedTablePoints: null }, ], { derivableInputs: { rating: ["sourceOdds"] } }, { inputPolicy: { missingRatingStrategy: "worstKnownMinus", fallbackRatingDelta: 0.05, ratingMin: 0.15, ratingMax: 0.99, }, } ); expect(resolved.get("favorite")?.rating).toBeLessThanOrEqual(0.99); expect(resolved.get("tail")).toMatchObject({ rating: 0.15, method: "worstKnownMinus" }); }); });