brackt/app/services/simulations/registry.ts
Claude d4df0b65fb
Make LLWS simulator bracket-aware and calibrate its futures model
The LLWS simulator was overestimating favorites and ignoring games that had
already been played. Two separate causes:

1. Championship futures were used directly as single-game strength
   (p1 / (p1 + p2)). A future already compounds the ~6 wins needed to take
   the title, so this made every individual game as lopsided as the whole
   tournament and re-compounded that edge round after round. Against a
   representative 20-team board the favorite priced at 21.8% simulated at
   44.9%, and the longest shot fell to ~0%.

   Futures are now decompressed to single-game Elo via convertFuturesToElo,
   the same pipeline the other bracket simulators use, and games are played
   with eloWinProbabilityWithParity. The parity factor was calibrated by
   sweeping it until a randomized-draw simulation reproduces the board it
   was fed: at 1000 the favorite simulates at 21.8% and field-wide RMSE
   drops from 0.062 to 0.003. It is overridable per season via config.

2. The simulator never read playoff_matches, so it re-ran the tournament
   from an empty bracket every time and shuffled the draw at random each
   iteration. A recorded loss changed nothing.

   It now loads the seeded llws_20 bracket, places teams in their real
   slots, and replays completed games from their recorded result instead of
   re-simulating them, so an eliminated team correctly drops to zero. When
   no bracket exists (or it has no participants seeded) it falls back to the
   previous randomized-draw behavior, and a seeded bracket is authoritative
   about which side a team is on, so externalId is only required on the
   pre-bracket path.

Guards: a recorded result is only honored when its two participants are the
ones the simulation routed into that game, so a corrupt or out-of-order row
cannot desynchronize the rest of the bracket; brackets seeding an unknown or
duplicated participant now fail loudly.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01X5vQZMPeokzfMqHQjq1RDZ
2026-08-21 21:09:47 +00:00

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/**
* Simulator Registry
*
* Maps a sport's simulatorType to the appropriate Simulator implementation.
* Set simulatorType on the sport record in the admin UI.
* Add new simulators here as new sports are supported.
*/
import type { Simulator } from "./types";
import { BracketSimulator } from "./bracket-simulator";
import { AutoRacingSimulator } from "./auto-racing-simulator";
import { F1_RACE_POINTS, INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS } from "./race-points";
import { GolfSimulator } from "./golf-simulator";
import { UCLSimulator } from "./ucl-simulator";
import { NCAAMSimulator } from "./ncaam-simulator";
import { NCAAWSimulator } from "./ncaaw-simulator";
import { NBASimulator } from "./nba-simulator";
import { NHLSimulator } from "./nhl-simulator";
import { AFLSimulator } from "./afl-simulator";
import { EPLSimulator } from "./epl-simulator";
import { SnookerSimulator } from "./snooker-simulator";
import { TennisSimulator } from "./tennis-simulator";
import { DartsSimulator } from "./darts-simulator";
import { CSMajorSimulator } from "./cs-major-simulator";
import { MLBSimulator } from "./mlb-simulator";
import { NFLSimulator } from "./nfl-simulator";
import { WNBASimulator } from "./wnba-simulator";
import { WorldCupSimulator } from "./world-cup-simulator";
import { NCAAFootballSimulator } from "./ncaa-football-simulator";
import { LLWSSimulator } from "./llws-simulator";
import { CollegeHockeySimulator } from "./college-hockey-simulator";
import { BracktSimulator } from "./brackt-simulator";
import { NLLSimulator } from "./nll-simulator";
import { MLSSimulator } from "./mls-simulator";
export const SIMULATOR_TYPES = [
"f1_standings",
"indycar_standings",
"golf_qualifying_points",
"playoff_bracket",
"ucl_bracket",
"ncaam_bracket",
"ncaaw_bracket",
"nba_bracket",
"nhl_bracket",
"nfl_bracket",
"afl_bracket",
"epl_standings",
"snooker_bracket",
"tennis_qualifying_points",
"mlb_bracket",
"wnba_bracket",
"world_cup",
"darts_bracket",
"cs2_major_qualifying_points",
"ncaa_football_bracket",
"llws_bracket",
"college_hockey_bracket",
"brackt",
"nll_bracket",
"mls_bracket",
] as const;
export type SimulatorType = typeof SIMULATOR_TYPES[number];
export interface SimulatorInfo {
name: string;
description: string;
}
const REGISTRY: Record<SimulatorType, { info: SimulatorInfo; create: () => Simulator }> = {
f1_standings: {
info: { name: "F1 Standings Model", description: "Simulates remaining races using current F1 standings and futures odds" },
create: () => new AutoRacingSimulator(F1_RACE_POINTS, "f1_standings_model"),
},
indycar_standings: {
info: { name: "IndyCar Standings Model", description: "Simulates remaining races using current IndyCar standings and futures odds" },
create: () => new AutoRacingSimulator(INDYCAR_RACE_POINTS, "indycar_standings_model"),
},
golf_qualifying_points: {
info: { name: "Golf Qualifying Points Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates remaining majors using a Plackett-Luce model with SG: Total ratings. Awards QP by finishing position; ranks players by total QP across all 4 majors." },
create: () => new GolfSimulator(),
},
playoff_bracket: {
info: { name: "Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates playoff bracket outcomes using Elo ratings" },
create: () => new BracketSimulator(),
},
ucl_bracket: {
info: { name: "UCL Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the UEFA Champions League 16-team knockout bracket using blended Elo + futures odds" },
create: () => new UCLSimulator(),
},
ncaam_bracket: {
info: { name: "NCAAM Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates preseason field selection or the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket using season-scoped KenPom-like ratings" },
create: () => new NCAAMSimulator(),
},
ncaaw_bracket: {
info: { name: "NCAAW Bracket Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates preseason field selection or the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament bracket using season-scoped Barthag-like ratings" },
create: () => new NCAAWSimulator(),
},
nba_bracket: {
info: { name: "NBA Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NBA playoff seedings (via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" },
create: () => new NBASimulator(),
},
nhl_bracket: {
info: { name: "NHL Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates NHL playoff seedings (divisional format, via seed probabilities) and full bracket (best-of-7 series) using Elo ratings" },
create: () => new NHLSimulator(),
},
nfl_bracket: {
info: {
name: "NFL Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo",
description: "Projects NFL regular season standings (via nfelo Elo ratings) to determine the 14-team playoff field, then simulates the full bracket (Wild Card → Divisional → Conference Championship → Super Bowl). Elo ratings maintained via admin sourceElo field.",
},
create: () => new NFLSimulator(),
},
afl_bracket: {
info: { name: "AFL Season + Finals Monte Carlo", description: "Projects AFL regular season standings via Elo, then simulates the 10-team finals series (Wildcard → QF/EF → SF → PF → Grand Final). Reads current standings from DB; falls back to full-season projection pre-season." },
create: () => new AFLSimulator(),
},
epl_standings: {
info: { name: "EPL Season Standings Monte Carlo", description: "Projects the English Premier League table using current standings and Elo/projected-points inputs. Simulates draws correctly and returns top-eight placement probabilities." },
create: () => new EPLSimulator(),
},
snooker_bracket: {
info: { name: "Snooker World Championship Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the 32-player World Championship bracket using frame-by-frame Bernoulli win probability and direct Elo ratings. Pre-bracket path simulates qualifying (ranks 17-48) and randomly draws qualifiers vs top 16 seeds." },
create: () => new SnookerSimulator(),
},
tennis_qualifying_points: {
info: { name: "Tennis Grand Slam Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates all 4 Grand Slam majors (128-player seeded bracket) using surface-specific Elo ratings. Accumulates qualifying points per round (tie-split applied) and ranks players by total QP across the season." },
create: () => new TennisSimulator(),
},
mlb_bracket: {
info: { name: "MLB Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates MLB division races + full playoff bracket (WC best-of-3, DS best-of-5, LCS/WS best-of-7) using Elo ratings calibrated from FanGraphs projected wins" },
create: () => new MLBSimulator(),
},
wnba_bracket: {
info: { name: "WNBA Playoff Monte Carlo", description: "Projects WNBA regular season seedings and simulates full playoff bracket (R1 best-of-3, Semis best-of-5, Finals best-of-7) using SRS-derived Elo ratings. SRS values sourced from basketball-reference.com." },
create: () => new WNBASimulator(),
},
world_cup: {
info: { name: "FIFA World Cup 2026 Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the full 48-team World Cup: round-robin group stage (12 groups), best-8 third-place selection, R32→R16→QF→SF→3rd place game→Final. Uses blended Elo + futures odds." },
create: () => new WorldCupSimulator(),
},
darts_bracket: {
info: { name: "PDC World Darts Championship Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the 128-player World Darts Championship bracket using set-level Bernoulli win probability and Elo ratings. Top 32 seeds placed in fixed positions; remaining 96 players randomly drawn per simulation." },
create: () => new DartsSimulator(),
},
cs2_major_qualifying_points: {
info: { name: "CS2 Major Qualifying Points Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates 2 CS2 Majors per season (3 Swiss stages: Opening Bo1, Elimination Bo1, Decider Bo3, then Champions Stage single-elimination). Awards QP by final placement; ranks teams by total QP across both majors. Stage 3 exits (placements 916) are sub-ranked by W-L record." },
create: () => new CSMajorSimulator(),
},
ncaa_football_bracket: {
info: { name: "NCAA Football CFP Monte Carlo", description: "Simulates the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket using Elo/FPI ratings entered via Admin → Elo Ratings. Optionally blends with championship futures odds (60% Elo / 40% odds). Seeds 14 receive first-round byes; First Round losers score 0 points." },
create: () => new NCAAFootballSimulator(),
},
llws_bracket: {
info: {
name: "LLWS Bracket Monte Carlo",
description: "Simulates the 20-team Little League World Series: a 10-team double-elimination bracket per side (US & International), each producing a side champion, then the consolation game (3rd/4th) and the World Championship (1st/2nd). Championship futures odds are decompressed to single-game Elo. When an llws_20 bracket exists it simulates the real draw and honors completed results; otherwise the draw is randomized and externalId ('US' or 'Intl') sets the sides.",
},
create: () => new LLWSSimulator(),
},
college_hockey_bracket: {
info: {
name: "Men's College Hockey Monte Carlo",
description: "Simulates the 16-team NCAA men's hockey tournament. Pre-bracket mode samples the field using admin-entered futures odds, NPI rank, and/or Elo; bracket mode honors the existing Frozen Four bracket and completed results.",
},
create: () => new CollegeHockeySimulator(),
},
brackt: {
info: {
name: "Brackt Harville Model",
description: "Projects league manager standings from drafted non-Brackt EVs and simulates final league placement probabilities.",
},
create: () => new BracktSimulator(),
},
nll_bracket: {
info: {
name: "NLL Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo",
description: "Projects NLL regular season standings via Elo (14 teams, 18 games) to determine the top-8 playoff field, then simulates the bracket (QF single-game; SF and Finals best-of-3). Reads current standings from DB; falls back to full-season projection pre-season.",
},
create: () => new NLLSimulator(),
},
mls_bracket: {
info: {
name: "MLS Season + Playoffs Monte Carlo",
description: "Projects MLS regular season standings per conference via Elo (30 teams, 34 games) to determine the 18-team playoff field (top 9 per conference), then simulates the full bracket: Wild Card (single game + PKs) → Round 1 (best-of-3) → Conference Semis (single game) → Conference Finals (single game) → MLS Cup.",
},
create: () => new MLSSimulator(),
},
};
export function getSimulator(simulatorType: SimulatorType): Simulator {
const entry = REGISTRY[simulatorType];
if (!entry) {
throw new Error(
`No simulator registered for type: "${simulatorType}". ` +
`Add a simulator to app/services/simulations/registry.ts.`
);
}
return entry.create();
}
export function getSimulatorInfo(simulatorType: SimulatorType): SimulatorInfo | null {
return REGISTRY[simulatorType]?.info ?? null;
}